市场估值和过度自信对并购绩效的实证研究

运用事件研究法,以2003—2011年中国的上市公司为样本,针对市场估值和管理者过度自信的相互作用对并购绩效的影响进行多元回归分析。结果发现：不同于过度自信管理者,理性管理者在高估和低估价值时期进行的并购活动都能带来正的超额收益。     

行为金融:过度自信与混合期望收益模型

本文以投资者的过度自信心理为基础,研究了投资心理对证券期望收益的影响,并基于投资者的理性心理和过度自信心理建立了混合期望收益模型,证明了CAPM模型为混合期望收益模型的特殊模型,当不存在过度自信投资心理时,混合期望收益模型退化为CAPM模型.     

Pragmatism,Instrumental Value Theory and Social Economics

In an effort to restore trust in the banking sector, the Advisory Committee on the Future of Banks in the Netherlands made a recommendation, which has since been adopted, that bank executives be required to swear an oath akin to the physician's Hippocratic Oath. This examination of the prospects of the Dutch banker's oath addresses two broad issues. One issue is the efficacy of oaths themselves as instruments for achieving the desired end. A second issue concerns the extent to which this particular oath is a useful guide to ethical banking practice. One conclusion of this study is that it would be difficult for any oath in banking to serve a role that is analogous to the Hippocratic Oath in medicine because of the many dissimilarities involved, most notably the lack in banking of a singular focus on service. Second, the Dutch oath, while admirable in its lofty exhortations, fails to provide a reliable guide through the many difficult judgments that must be made in banking.     

高等财经教育学分制管理模式改革的探索与实践

高等财经教育教学管理模式改革的重点是学分制改革。河南财经学院在推行学分制的过程中,学分制不仅被理解为标准修业年限的上下浮动,也被看作是一种以教育思想转变为先导,以教学改革为核心,以因材施教为原则、以教学计划的灵活性保证修业年限的灵活性和所培养人才知识、能力结构的多样化的教学管理制度。     

The Relationship between Anthropology and Economics

This article provides an institutional perspective on a recent effort by the author to develop a comprehensive empirical model of the “high-tech” sector of the Texas economy.¹ The model is unique in that it incorporates institutional phenomena into econometric analysis. This approach has been suggested by the author in previous work.²     

Reflections on Social Economics in a Diverse and Open Economics

Many economists adopt a critical stance on cooperatives. One example is the claim that larger membership in cooperative banks is detrimental to performance. We re-examine this earlier finding by drawing from a richer and broader conceptual framework than used previously and conclude that in recent years, the relationship between membership and performance may be positive. In our empirical analysis, we use new data for Finnish cooperative banks and, compared to earlier work, develop an alternative measure for membership and employ improved estimation methods. A positive relationship between membership and performance in financial cooperatives is consistently found. We discuss our findings in light of an emerging body of theoretical and empirical work on cooperatives, especially for financial cooperatives, and argue that a new view of cooperatives is warranted.     

沪市“风格惯性”与“价格惯性”比较之实证研究

本文以1997～2003年沪市261支A股为样本．实证对比了＂风格惯性策略”和“价格惯性策略”的盈利性。结果表明．在我国股市上运用传统的价格惯性策略不能获利，而运用“风格惯性策略”，特别是买入过去6、9、12个月内收益最高的赢家组合．则能够获利。本文从行为金融学角度对这一现象作了理论分析。     

信誉、财富与农村信贷配给——欠发达地区不同农村金融机构的供给行为研究

文章使用2006年云南、宁夏近800个农户家庭的调查数据,实证分析了欠发达地区不同农村金融机构的信贷供给行为.在区分农户的名义需求和有效需求的基础上,研究发现信用社和银行在发放贷款时偏向富有农户,民间借贷者没有这种偏向,因而其服务的覆盖面远远超过正式机构.两者都重视农户的信誉状况,但信用记录没有实现共享.这些行为的差异主要来源于各类金融机构之间信息成本和交易成本的差别.     

Industrial Development Banking in Nigeria: A Forty Year Failed Experiment

Abstract

The first industrial development bank in Nigeria was established in 1964 as part of the First National Development Plan. Its original mandate was to provide medium‐ and long‐term finance to privately owned enterprises in Nigeria. Forty years after its establishment (1964–2004) funding still remains the major obstacle to industrial development in Nigeria. This paper argues that the major problem for the bank was the government’s inability to separate the affairs of the bank from politics.     

业务运营监管策略互动的动态博弈模型分析和政策建议

对金融企业业务运行的监管是规范金融市场、控制金融风险的一个主要的途径。随着市场化金融监管程度的不断提高,我们有必要研究金融监管机构策略选择和金融企业之间策略选择的相互影响关系,特别是金融企业形成良好的业务运营预期所需要的约束条件。本文试图通过动态博弈模型的建立、分析来研究上述问题,并对金融监管改革时期的策略取向提出建议。     

The Death and Revival of Usury in China: An Institutional Analysis

The practice of usury has recently provoked an intense debate in China. While the practice is widely condemned, prominent figures have sought to legitimize it with economic analysis. The institutional competition between ancient usury and modern money and banking has persisted for centuries and seems far from ending. This article examines the institutional factors underpinning the revival of usury in China after a thirty-year stretch (1948–1978), during which the practice had virtually disappeared. The revival of usury is attributed mainly to a pattern of uneven development in China. Usury, by its nature, is a drag on economic productivity and a source of social discord. As China endeavors to achieve a more broad-based human flourishing, the practice of usury must be prohibited strictly once more.     

中国银行体系关系型信贷的有效性——基于宣告效应的研究

在不对称信息下,关系型银行可以利用信息优势参与借款企业治理,降低代理成本.文章实证分析了1996-2008年中国上市公司发布获得银行信贷公告后的市场反应,发现上市公司发布获得银行授信和债务重组公告引起股价显著上涨,表明中国银行体系自1996年以来有意识地建立长期稳定的银企合作关系的政策具有治理效应.文章还发现,信息不对称程度越高、公司治理越差的公司,治理效应越显著.这种效应主要体现在贷前甄别企业质量和贷后救助方面,而在贷中监督企业机会主义行为,降低代理成本方面则没有体现.     

新疆农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,新疆农村金融得到较大发展,对推动区域农业和农村经济发展发挥了重要的作用,但是农村金融资源配置效率仍然较低。本文通过平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验,对新疆农村金融发展与农村经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,得出目前新疆农村金融发展与农村经济增长尚未形成良性互动关系的结论。农村金融市场化程度低、结构单一已成为制约农村金融效率提高的重要原因,农村金融相关率与发展效率的低下及漏损导致农村经济发展的滞缓。     

Technical efficiency and returns to scale in Austrian commercial banking: 1987–1991

In a pooled time-series cross-section study covering the period 1987–1991, the technical efficiency of Austrian all-purpose banks is analysed. The sample covers banks of all size classes, among them the largest 18 banks as well as some of the very small banks. The empirical results show that local banks and nationwide operating banks are technically most efficient while regional banks are least efficient. Moreover, it can be shown that the technical efficiency of nationwide operating banks improved substantially in the period analysed relative to that of local and regional banks.I wish to thank an anonymous referee for his helpful comments. Financial support from the Vienna Chamber of Commerce is gratefully acknowledged.     

我国三十年来农村地区金融改革的逻辑轨迹——基于新比较经济学分析框架的研究

文章基于新比较经济学的分析框架,从正规金融和非正规金融两个方面来论述三十年来中国农村地区金融改革的基本逻辑。研究认为,农村金融发展滞后于农村经济发展的原因是政府对农村金融的控制方式不尽合理。文章充分肯定了国家2005年至今的改革措施,认为新型金融机构的引进将成为建立完善的农村金融体系的契机。     

Regulating the banking industry in transition economies: Exploring interactions between capital and reserve requirements

This paper examines the ‘prudential' role of reserve requirements in transition economies using a general-equilibrium banking model. The analysis stresses the role that reserve requirements may play in enforcing an adequate level of bank capitalization in a context in which it is difficult to assess the true value of bank assets. The paper also explores the interactions that exist between capital and reserve requirements and the effect of these regulations on the financial structure of banks and on the level of credit and interest rates.     

Fiscal Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia: An Overview

Ian M. McDonald introduces a Policy Forum on Fiscal Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia . In this Policy Forum two papers focus on the fiscal policy of the Howard Government. A third paper considers the role of fiscal policy in the currency crisis in Southeast Asia.     

金融市场不完全的理论分解与测度研究——基于中国封闭式基金折价的动态考察

基于金融市场不完全的结构分解,文章构建了一个涵盖市场交易费用、套利定价机制不完备程度和行为金融学因素的封闭式基金折价机理模型,分阶段计量分析发现:(1)普通交易成本因素影响基金折价约6.1%;(2)2007年前股指期货缺位因素导致基金折价约25.6%,之后随着股指期货的正式推出该影响显著下降;(3)市场套利定价机制不完备程度测度表明,该因素影响基金平均折价三个阶段分别为8.26%、5.87%和7.91%;(4)时期固定效应表明,有5个季度因投资者情绪相对乐观而降低了基金的平均折价率。     

企业与市场:相关关系及其性质——一个基于回归古典的解析框架

通过对科斯替代逻辑的反思 ,重新考察了企业与市场的相关关系。认为交易费用的提出虽然打开了新古典企业的“黑箱” ,但是由此来解释企业的性质 ,其结论与现实相悖。本文提出了一个趋于古典的分析框架 ,发现企业与市场是分别建立在两种不同但有紧密相关性的分工基础上的 ,因而 ,它们各自的性质及其相互关系源于一般分工与个别分工各自的性质及其相关关系———企业是要素所有者为分享“合作剩余”而达成的合约 ,而市场则是商品所有者交换比较优势的制度安排。两者互补而不相互替代。这一结论较好地解释了实体经济中不论是企业规模 ,还是企业数量都在不断扩张 ,同时市场范围随之不断扩展 ,两方面相互促进、正相关推进发展的现实。     

资本形成、投资效率与经济增长之间的动态相关性--来自中国1978～2004年数据的实证研究

文章根据1978~2004年样本利用向量自回归模型研究了改革开放以来中国资本形成、投资效率与经济增长之间的动态相关性,在此基础上使用脉冲响应函数、方差分解模型以及动态相关系数等方法对公共资本、私人资本与产出增长之间的作用机理进行了系统分析。研究结论表明:实际产出增长率、公共资本增长率和私人资本增长率之间体现出较强的当期相关性,具有影响关系上的近似对称性;改革开放以来,三者具有类似的波动模式,它们之间存在稳定的影响关系和影响方向;为了增强公共投资率的产出效应,应该适度改善目前的投资结构,积极诱导和鼓励私人部门在具有产出生长点的项目上进行投资,宏观调控政策在刺激国内有效需求的同时,应加强供给管理并提高供给质量。