复杂科层组织网络中的无标度行为

考察管理幅度随机选取的科层组织网络是否存在无标度行为。理论分析发现,该网络的生长模型具备生成无标度网络的增长条件和择优连接条件,但当累计度相同时还存在机会均等机制,即添加次数较少的节点,累计度增加的概率更大。数值模拟表明,其节点的累计度分布服从某种复杂的幂律规律,这说明现实中的科层组织网络与自然界的许多复杂网络一样具有相同的组织原理,讨论无标度特性对管理科学研究具有重要意义。     

余光中的江南情结

不久前有人采访诗人余光中:你的家乡在哪里?余光中回答道,是“多桥多水,多藕多莲的江南”。据我对余先生的了解,他祖籍是福建永春,父母相识在永春,他出生在南京,中学时代曾在四川读书,母亲是江苏常州人。严格来讲余先生只能算半个江南人,而他却很自然地说自己的家乡是江南,在我     

管理的“复杂”嬗变

基于人性认识视角梳理管理理论的发展演变过程,指出面向人本通性的规模效率型"简单"管理忽视了管理过程的价值创造,提出工业4.0背景下需要构建复杂科学管理架构,充分彰显"人"本个性的价值创造。     

The Gift Paradox: Complex Selves and Symbolic Good

Generous unemployment benefits are a conventional explanation of the high rates of unemployment in many OECD countries. However, this perception has been challenged on the basis that cross-national evidence comes only from regression analyses of unemployment on the OECD's gross replacement rate but that results are not robust to improved, multidimensional measures of generosity. In this article, I conduct a detailed empirical analysis of how social welfare programs affect unemployment in 17 OECD countries, from 1975 to 2000, using a detailed concept of labor “decommodification” to make cross-national comparisons of generosity. The results show that unemployment benefits remain an important, robust determinant of unemployment even when the new measure is used.     

基于复杂网络的创新扩散研究

分别建立了基于随机网络、小世界网络和无标度网络的创新随机演化模型,讨论了创新扩散的动力学性质。通过大量的试验,得到心理阈值、人群的网络机构、初始采纳创新群体的规模和特点影响创新扩散的规律。     

复杂网络

本文介绍了复杂网络的若干参数和具有代表性的复杂网络模型,以及其在经济管理中的若干应用领域,分析了应用复杂网络研究经济管理系统的两个关键问题——流与拓扑结构,阐述了应用流及拓扑结构研究经济与管理问题的基本思路。     

复杂产品技术能力增长机理研究

本文首先从知识观角度对企业技术能力的增长进行了细致分析,建立了企业技术能力增长的一般过程模型。在此基础上,对复杂产品技术能力增长的几个主要特殊问题作了详细的探讨,初步揭示了复杂产品技术能力增长的基本规律。     

Complex Systems Applied? The Merger that made Glaxo SmithKline

With reference to the Glaxo SmithKline (GSK) case, and more widely, this paper asks 'what's going on?' when two separate corporations choose to combine their organizational and administrative facilities to pursue asserted shared corporate goals through merger. The paper explores whether complex systems thinking can help to capture and represent the interactions that occur across different classes of agent involved in the extended merger process. It is therefore explicitly concerned with the application of complex systems in socio-economic contexts as opposed to physical or natural systems. The paper argues that in order to understand the merger phenomenon, it is important to disentangle the revealed (as opposed to assumed) rationality of different classes of economic agent--operating across the corporate sector, across regulatory regimes, and from all sides of the market/exchange process. The analysis draws attention to the ways in which that rationality is both incentivized and (economically) expressed. Further, the paper uses the Instituted Economic Process (IEP) perspective to sketch an analytical framework representing the structures and structuring of interdependent markets in the pharmaceuticals sector. It argues that these interactions are responsible for instituting particular recurrent behaviours, appearing as event regularities in terms of outcomes. It further argues that these recurrent behaviours and interactions themselves change under pressure from various parts of the system and explores how these changes are revealed in this particular merger case. The analysis describes an unfolding situation which is inherently emergent, experimental, restless, and transformatory.     

The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World

We develop a nonlinear exchange rate model with heterogeneous agents. Some agents adopt a “fundamentalist” forecasting rule, while others use a “chartist” forecasting rule. We show that the model is capable of explaining the empirical puzzles relating to exchange rate movements. In particular, the model explains the “exchange rate determination” and PPP puzzles, the excess volatility, and fat tails in exchange rate returns.     

The Choice of Technique with Multiple and Complex Interest Rates

This article clarifies the relationships between internal rates of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and the analysis of the choice of technique in models of production analyzed during the Cambridge capital controversy. Multiple and possibly complex roots of polynomial equations defining the IRR are considered. An algorithm, using these multiple roots to calculate the NPV, justifies the traditional analysis of reswitching.     

基于复杂网络的复杂项目管理研究框架

把复杂网络理论引入管理,使之适应不断变化的环境需要,是近年来管理理论发展的重要趋势,并已在相关领域取得了广泛的研究成果。通过归纳复杂网络的特征及其测度,在分析复杂项目特性的基础上,基于复杂项目所涉及的结构、组织、人员、技术、进度、成本等各要素的不确定性以及各要素之间的相互作用关系,概括了复杂项目的复杂网络行为特征。根据复杂项目的复杂网络行为特征,基于结构方程建模(SEM)方法的应用范围和特点,提出了运用结构方程建模方法,分析、解决复杂项目管理问题的框架。     

复杂产品模块化外包的最优合同设计

本文分析了复杂产品的模块化外包过程中的道德风险和逆向选择。从模块集成商的角度,建立了一个同时包含道德风险和逆向选择的综合模型,并对其最优解进行了分析。结果表明,要消除合约中的机会主义行为,模块集成商要通过建立"质押"机制、完善监管体系、慎选合作伙伴、提升合作层次等策略,来优化合同设计。     

基于复杂网络的研发团队核心层划分

针对传统分析方案表述力不足、特征属性不明确的问题,提出一种基于复杂网络的研发团队核心的划分方法。将研发团队属性和关系分别抽象并映射为复杂网络的结点和有色边,形成一个研发团队复杂网络模型RDTCN,并从RDTCN中提取度数、接近度、簇系数、介数4个指标作为特征属性,采用多属性决策方法进行集结,给出了团队核心层的确定方案。实验表明:该方案有效地解决了团队核心层难以界定以及核心层候选人员的确定问题,在一定程度上辅助了领导层的团队管理工作。     

基于复杂网络的复杂项目危机传染过程研究

基于复杂系统理论,运用复杂网络分析方法,剖析了复杂项目的结构特点,识别了复杂项目危机传播过程中的关键节点,为实践中针对性地制定复杂项目危机预防和应对策略提供了决策依据。     

城乡结合部社区自然-社会-经济复合系统可持续发展策略

以北京市六郎庄社区为研究对象,采用系统思想探讨了大城市周边城乡结合部自然-社会-经济复合系统的发展特征和可持续发展能力.研究表明,六郎庄社区的社会系统可持续发展能力总体较弱,在社区公共安全、社会保障、医疗、文体设施建设等方面都需要大力提升.六郎庄社区的经济发展乏力,缺乏长远考虑,导致居民收入大幅增加动力不足.六郎庄社区环境质量状况较差,且呈现恶化的趋势,急待改善.创新管理体制,建立城乡结合部“居住地治理”模式;构建多层次的产业发展体系,盘活城乡结合部经济;将城乡结合部社区建设纳入城市建设体系,全面推进城乡一体化:加强基础设施建设等措施,将有效推进城乡结合部可持续发展进程.     

基于复杂性理论知识管理系统多智能体的行为模式

主体是复杂性理论的核心概念,也是实现知识管理系统最基础的元件。以复杂性理论为基础,结合已研究的成果,论述知识管理中智能体之间的关联关系,讨论各类智能体的定义、结构、组成,以及多智能体的行为模式。     

基于分形理论的社会制度系统建设的复杂性研究

运用复杂性理论和分形理论阐述了社会制度系统的复杂性特征。揭示了社会制度系统中存在的制度结构分形、过程分形及功能分形特征。从5个方面详细地阐述了用复杂性理论及分形理论研究社会制度系统设计与创新的主要内容。     

Complex,dynamic environmental policies

The environment provides two different kinds of services: consumptive (input for conventional goods' production, pollution) and non-consumptive (amenity). The environment, which is treated as a renewable resource, might be harvested to obtain the first service, pollution (e.g., emissions, waste). However, reducing current pollution is costly and takes time; this adjustment process provides the second state. We show in this paper that the associated optimal environmental policies may be complex. More precisely, dampened oscillations and limit cycles (pollution following abatement and so on) may describe an optimal strategy even for strictly concave technologies and preferences. However, complex strategies—limit cycles and instabilities—are restricted to weakly green social preferences.     

跨国EMS企业复杂产品系统制造项目的产品知识管理

产品知识管理情景下的电子制造服务企业项目管理模式,是实现复杂产品系统制造的有效途径。在回顾相关文献的基础上,分析CoPS、EMS、PM、知识管理(KM)和产品知识管理(PKM)的理论背景,对EMS企业CoPS制造项目的产品知识和PKM活动进行讨论,构建了跨国EMS企业CoPS制造项目的PKM框架。