Notes and comments. 'History versus equilibrium' and the theory of economic growth, by Mark Setterfield: a comment

Setterfield criticised previous formal models of cumulativecausation (CC) for their determinism in which economic growthrates are simply a function of 'initial conditions'. Setterfieldargued these formal models accurately represented the work ofthe leading CC figure, Nicholas Kaldor. This paper argues that,on the contrary, Kaldor identified a number of endogenous mechanismsthat account for those stylised facts of economic history, whichare absent in formal models of CC.     

中国经济增长与通货膨胀:非典型滞胀特征

近年来,中国的宏观经济运行出现了高增长、低就业并存,资本存量与收入流量失衡的新局面.这种现象无法用传统的典型滞胀理论来解释说明,因此,构建一种针对中国实际情况的分析视角和方法的需要变得更为迫切.基于纯货币经济的分析方法,本文将中国的经济增长与通货膨胀归纳为一种含有非典型滞胀特征的经济现象.     

Social incidence and economic costs of carbon limits

This paper discusses both distributional and allocational effects of limiting carbon dioxide emissions in a small and open economy. It starts from the assumption that Switzerland attempts to stabilize its greenhouse gas emissions over the next 25 years, and evaluates costs and benefits of the respective reduction program. From a methodological viewpoint, this paper illustrates, how a computable general equilibrium approach can be adopted for identifying economic effects of cutting greenhouse gas emissions on the national level. From a political economy point of view it considers the social incidence of a greenhouse policy. It shows in particular that public acceptance can be increased and economic costs of greenhouse policies can be reduced, if carbon taxes are accompanied by revenue redistribution.     

“中国制造”路在何方:兼论滞涨威胁下的对外经济政策

当前中国宏观经济面临诸多难题,特别是对外贸易和汇率、外汇储备过多等问题.众多影响因素之下,中国作为世界工厂的地位受到威胁,形成了所谓的"中国制造"难题.本文通过分析新古典贸易理论,认为主流经济学的贸易理论不适合解释当前对外贸易中出现的问题;一个存在技术进步的中美贸易虚构的模型可以看出中美贸易导致中国贸易条件恶化的可能性.本文认为,要保持中国对外经济的健康发展,实现"中国制造"的顺利升级,必须保持独立的货币政策和提高名义经济增长率,唯此才能获得人民币升值牢固的基础和对外贸易的主动权.     

简化一般均衡模型中一般均衡点的确定

经济学教材在讨论一般均衡的时候,往往以两个人、两种生产要素、两种产品这种最简单的社会作为研究对象,它们通常只阐述了一般均衡的存在,但都没有说明这种最简单的社会一般均衡点的确定即以此作为研究对象。     

The specificity of manufacturing in Marx's economic thought

Abstract

This article examines Marx's approach to manufacturing and the extent to which manufacturing could be considered to have a special place in Marx's economic thought, especially in relation to accumulation and growth. The important ‘progressive’ features of manufacturing that can be found in Marx's writings and which are discussed here include: division of labour; socialisation of labour; mechanisation; increasing returns to scale; learning-by-doing; technological advancement; and overall, superior potential for cumulative productivity increases. These insights anticipate some of the thinking around the specificity of manufacturing found in twentieth-century structuralist development economics and some heterodox schools of thought such as Kaldorian approaches. This article suggests an interpretation of Marx as having a two-dimensional conceptualisation of activity specificity, with not only sectoral but also ‘technological–organisational’ dimensions, where these two dimensions are not fully independent of each other.     

高水平陷阱——李约瑟之谜再考察

本文从经济的角度重新考察了李约瑟之谜。通过一个动态一般均衡模型 ,本文证明 ,初始人口 资源禀赋的差异是造成中国和西欧在 1 8世纪之后的文明分岔的原因。这一理论和伊懋可的高水平陷阱学说是一致的。本文纠正了伊懋可学说中的逻辑错误 ,并发现了形成高水平陷阱的两个重要前提 ,即工业中存在规模经济以及人口增长符合马尔萨斯原理。     

Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?

This article suggests an alternative explanation for why resource-rich economies have lower growth rates: because they are likely to be living beyond their means. It is shown that overshooting the steady state's equilibrium consumption and investment can be optimal in a Ramsey growth model with natural resources. Therefore, the economy will converge to its steady state from above, displaying negative growth rates on the transition. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to the Venezuelan economy and shown to approximate the economy's performance over the oil boom years adequately.     

行政垄断的形成机制及改革思路研究

对于存在市场失灵的行业,政府对竞争进行限制和排斥;但如果价格规制没有达到效果,则可认为政府规制实际造成了一种不合意的行政垄断的后果。行政垄断的博弈各方都是追求自身利益最大化的行为主体,尤其是政府追求其自身利益导致了行政垄断的产生;行政垄断程度大小受很多因素影响,大致可分为需求因素和供给因素两类。这些因素不但决定了行政垄断程度,而且决定了政企之间的利益分配。电信业改革启示我们,中央政府下一步可以从市场结构、规制改革、反垄断法三个方面破除行政垄断;要彻底根除行政垄断,政治体制改革不可避免。     

价格粘性下人民币不同升值模式对中国经济的影响研究

文章以衰减函数的方式将新凯恩斯学派提出的价格粘性理论引入中国动态可计算一般均衡模型中,使模型更符合经济系统中价格调整规律,并利用模型模拟渐进式升值和快速升值两种不同的人民币升值模式对我国经济的影响。模拟结果表明,在价格粘性的作用下,人民币快速升值将在短期内对我国实体经济产生较大的负面冲击,GDP增速下降最高达1．6个百分点。失业率明显上升,而渐进式升值最高只有0．67个百分点;快速升值能有效抑制我国的通货膨胀和促使我国贸易再平衡,最多使我国CPI增速下降3．6个百分点和贸易顺差占GDP比重下降1．06个百分点,并且在长期内对实体经济的负·面效应略小于渐进式升值。因此,在不同的经济形势下应采取不     

Veblen’s System of Conspicuous Waste

Abstract:

The touchstone by which Thorstein Veblen evaluated an expenditure was “whether it furthers the life process taken impersonally.” For Veblen, the economic problem involved the problem of social provisioning, the way a community provides for itself. To a large degree, social provisioning has been impeded by the system of conspicuous waste, a “scheme of properties, decencies, and standards of living, the economic motive of which is competitive spending.” The system of conspicuous waste represents a cultural unfolding of conspicuous waste, prompted by the introduction of continuous-mass production in the late nineteenth, early twentieth centuries. Conspicuous waste refers to the allocation of resources, time, and effort that detract from the life process. Veblen rejected the idea that the system of conspicuous waste benefits society. For Veblen, the standard of living refers to that level of consumption at which people are expected to consume. Products that prove serviceable, however, may also serve as symbols of invidiousness. Veblen used the system of conspicuous waste to compare the diverse cultural responses of England and Germany to the same technology in the early twentieth century. The system, however, plays a central role in absorbing increases in output and maintaining profits. Whether it can continue to do so remains questionable.     

Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application

We describe a simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for Australia's MONASH model but the approach applies to a wide range of CGE models. The method is automated in the RunMONASH Windows software, putting CGE modelling under rational expectations within the reach of non-specialist modellers. We provide an illustrative application in which MONASH results under rational expectations are compared with results under static expectations. The application and supporting software can be downloaded. Results from the application are interpreted in terms of elementary economic mechanisms.     

On the equivalence between the overlapping-generations model and cyclical general-equilibrium models

We show that equilibrium cycles in an overlapping-generations model are equivalent to asymmetric equilibria in a general-equilibrium model. We use this equivalence to find equilibrium cycles in the overlapping-generations model with two and three generations, respectively. For the example with two generations we show that for certain parameter values cycles of all periods occur.     

管子轻重理论的均衡思想

<管子>后16篇,也称轻重篇,着重阐述了轻重理论,是中国古代特有的一种经济管理思想.前人学者大多从供求规律与货币数量论等角度对商品之间的轻重规律进行阐释.文章则重点阐述了轻重规律所蕴含的均衡思想,并且在阐述管子轻重理论中蕴含的局部均衡、动态均衡、一般均衡思想后,借用现代经济学的分析工具,试图重建管子轻重规律的均衡分析.西方经济学直到1769年以后才在经济学中引入均衡的概念,此研究将进一步丰富中国经济思想的研究.     

The Independent,Simultaneous Development of Instrumental Thought in Various Disciplines

This paper seeks to establish that contributions to regional theory advanced by Gunnar Myrdal exhibit high levels of explanatory power when clarifying challenges facing Germany's eastern region since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Myrdal's evolutionary institutionalist contribution is contrasted with the "convergence hypothesis" advanced by R. Barro and X. Sala-i-Martin. Challenged is their prediction that Germany's eastern region would experience relatively higher annual rates of per capita output growth, and that levels of per capita output would converge between the eastern and western regions over time. Myrdal's approach is argued superior as it allows for considering backwash and spread effects within a framework of circular and cumulative causation, emerging between Germany's western and eastern regions.     

单侧垄断、买方势力与横向合并的反垄断政策

本文将DW模型拓展到单侧垄断情形下加以分析,发现与DW模型明显不同,在单侧垄断情形下,零售企业集中度越高,则终端零售价格也越高.如果零售企业的横向合并仅仅增强其买方势力,而不会显著影响其卖方竞争格局,那么这种合并会增进消费者福利.现实中大型连锁零售企业往往采取全国统一采购,具有很强的买方势力,然而,在各个区域(城市)市场面临很多当地零售企业非常激烈的(卖方)竞争.在这种情形下,反垄断机构通过鼓励零售产业的横向合并行为来打造大型连锁零售企业的公共政策可能会增进消费者福利,但是前提是必须时时确保本土区域零售企业竞争的充分存在.