THREE SOLITUDES IN CONTRACT: LAW, DATA, AND THEORY

This note discusses and contrasts the different perspectives that the law, empirical labor economics and contract theory bring to the study of the employment relationship. Understanding the reasons for these different perspectives should give rise to a better understanding of the employment relationship and more effective labor market policy.     

The relationship between total factor productivity growth and employment: some evidence from a sample of European Regions

This paper provides a structural estimation of an equilibrium matching model with exogenous productivity growth on a sample of European Regions for the period 1976–2000. Using a three-stage least squares procedure, I estimate a simultaneous equation model for employment, wages and capital stock. The importance of the study of the relationship between growth and employment is due to the fact that the sign of this connection is not clear-cut. Theoretical models imply that the impact of productivity on employment is ambiguous. Furthermore, the empirical contributions are still not so many to reach a strong conclusion on the sign of the relationship above. This paper finds that the impact of productivity growth on employment is negative in the short-run and this effect remains negative even in the long-run. The implication of my results is that all new technology is embodied in new jobs and job creation plays no role in the employment dynamics of the sample I have considered.     

Worker Productivity, Working Time Reduction, And The Short–Run And Long–Run Employment Effects

This paper illustrates a shirking–type efficiency wage model to explain why shorter working hours cause an ambiguous effect on employment as the empirical result. We find that shorter working hours have an uncertain impact on the work effort, and the relationship between work effort and shorter working time is a decisive factor in the employment effect of working time reduction. Moreover, it is also found that, given the zero profit constraint, the long–run employment effect of reducing working hours will intensify the short–run employment effect.     

Full wages,part-time employment and the minimum wage

The economic effects of the minimum wage have become increasingly ambiguous. Historically, economists have asserted that increases in the minimum wage result in increases in unemployment. This relationship has been challenged recently by Card and Krueger, Katz and Krueger, and Card. These authors have provided empirical evidence that seems to indicate that there is no relationship between various economic variables (such as level of employment, and product price, among others) and the minimum wage. In addition, these authors have not provided a cogent presentation of the effects of the minimum wage on part-time employment. This study examines, from a theoretical standpoint, the effects of the minimum wage on employment. Furthermore, we emphasize the distinction between money wages and full wages; and the role that part-time employmentplays in the analysis. After incorporating these factors into a theoretical presentation, we provide empirical evidence by way of an OLS regression. We conclude that firms respond to increases in the minimum wage by altering the level of part-time employment. By doing this, firms are able to absorb the minimum wage increase because part timers receive fewer fringe benefits.     

内陆开放地区对外贸易、资本投资与就业分析——以重庆市为例

根据重庆市1987-2009年的统计数据,利用协整理论和向量误差修正模型(VECM),对重庆市对外贸易、资本投资与就业的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:从长期来看,重庆市进出口与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系;出口对就业具有拉动作用,而进口对就业有阻碍作用,并且出口对就业的促进作用小于进口对就业的抑制作用;而资本投入在一定程度上对劳动力产生了替代性.重庆市应通过协调产业发展、打造对外贸易新平台、均衡资本在区域、行业间的投入促进就业.     

Entry,market turbulence and industry employment growth

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial dynamics in terms of firm entry, market turbulence and employment growth. Do entry of firms, the composition of industry dynamics (net entry) and market turbulence (entry and exit) influence industrial employment growth? This paper provides an empirical investigation, using unique data for 42 disaggregated Swedish industrial sectors during the period 1997–2001. It is hypothesised that the importance of entering firms, net entry and market turbulence may differ significantly across industries. A quantile regression method is used in order to detect industrial differences in the response to industrial employment growth. The empirical evidence shows that, on the one hand, firm entry and market turbulence have a positive effect on employment for fast growing industries and that the effect is larger for high growth industries. On the other hand, the composition of industry dynamics in terms of net entry rates has a more dispersed effect across all industries, even though the effect of net entry is larger for high growth industries.     

Tenure, business cycle and the wage-setting process

We analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination. First, we introduce a model that combines job matching with business-cycle effects. As the employment relationship progresses, the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match-specific human capital she accumulates, gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions: the employment relationship is progressively “internalized”. Then, we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction: the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure. This finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity, and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages.     

外汇干预与就业、宏观经济增长研究——以1994—2007年中国外汇干预实证研究为例

文章通过构建理论模型对外汇干预与就业、宏观经济增长之间的互动关系进行了研究,认为中央银行应能从外汇干预中获得正收益,同时外汇干预能有效降低就业与经济增长过程中大幅波动的可能性.在理论模型的基础上,文章对1994-2007年间中国外汇干预政策实施效果进行了实证研究,主要结论为与理论模型基本一致:市场化的人民币外汇干预会导致央行正向的干预收益,同时降低就业与经济增长的渡动性.对于目前受到国际次贷危机影响的中国经济来说,采取更为灵活的外汇干预政策应是合理的政策选择.     

Employment,unemployment and output growth in booms and recessions: time series evidence from Finland, 1970-1996

The Finnish economy experienced dramatic changes in the early 1990s. The collapse of the economy in 1991 resulted in a 12% decline in GDP over the years 1991–1993, leading to a significant fall in the demand for labour and a rise in unemployment. The study contributes to the discussion on possible changes in the functioning of the Finnish economy by scrutinizing the stability of the employment/unemploymentoutput relation. The empirical analysis, based on aggregate variables from the period 1975–1996, suggests that the relationship between aggregate-level employment/ unemployment and output growth remained relatively stable throughout the investigation period.     

Oil Discovery,Political Institutions and Economic Diversification

Diversification is touted as a desirable policy objective for oil‐rich nations because it reduces exposure to volatility. However, the empirical relationship between petroleum and diversification is not well understood. Here, we test the effect of giant oil discoveries on diversification using a panel dataset of 136 countries observed over the period from 1962 to 2012. We notice non‐oil sector export concentration 8 years after a discovery. However, we do not observe any effect on the structure of employment in non‐resource and manufacturing sectors. Democratic political institutions moderate the export and employment concentration effects of petroleum discovery.     

Firm size,employment risk and wages: further insights on a persistent puzzle

Recent inquiries into the observed positive relationship between wages and firm size suggest that unobservable characteristics give rise to a sorting of workers into large and small firms. Specifically, smaller firms tend to offer more unstable employment prospects and will tend to attract workers who are themselves unstable. As demonstrated by empirical analysis, the risk of permanent employment separation (i.e. the risk of firm failure) is in fact negatively correlated with firm size. Moreover, when this measure of employment risk is included as a determinant of wages, the independent influence of firm size on wages vanishes. These results suggest that firm size merely proxies for the risk of firm failure by capturing unobservable sources of heterogeneity in workers and firms.     

Foreign trade and its impact on employment: The Mexican case

This paper discusses the relationship between foreign trade and employment in a small open economy, and carries out some empirical work using Mexican data. It is argued that employment multipliers are not stable if intermediate inputs are imported. Actual employment multipliers will be given by the relationship between effective demand and installed capacity in each sector, and will depend strongly on whether quotas or tariffs are in operation. It is also found that Mexican exports are capital intensive relative to its imports.     

中国经济的高增长与低就业——货币有效就业假说与经验检验

对于中国经济增长与就业增长之间的关系的研究由来已久,本文在肯定和批判已有的从微观边际生产力视角出发的实物有效就业研究的前提下,提出从宏观的、长期的层面研究经济增长对就业增长的推动作用,提出并经验检验了货币有效就业假说。分析表明:中国经济中确实存在高增长与低就业的并存,原因是现有的就业增长是低工资水平的就业增长,不能够扩大有效需求而自动产生对就业的需求,解决的途径应该是,将就业增长纳入宏观有效需求的问题当中,用适当工资水平的就业增长来调节收入分配差距,进而扩大有效需求,增加就业。     

我国产业能源消耗对经济产出和就业的异质性影响——基于面板协整模型的实证分析

文章在对我国三大产业进行细分的基础上,基于1985-2009年各产业能源消费量、产值和就业人数的统计数据,采用面板协整模型对三者之间的互动关系进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,不同产业及产业内部主要部门在能源产出弹性和能源就业弹性方面存在着显著的差异,产业能源消耗的异质性决定了能源消耗低碳化对经济产出及就业产生的不同影响,表明低碳经济应与经济产出和就业保持均衡的发展关系。     

Administrative and Survey Data in Personnel Economics

The number of empirical studies in personnel economics using administrative data has grown rapidly in recent years. We survey the use of administrative data to examine employment contracts. Specifically, we consider three types of data that have been widely used in empirical studies: historical firm‐level records, contemporary firm‐level records and national matched employer–employee records. Studies using this sort of administrative data have shed considerable light on the nature of employment relationships.     

Unemployment,long-term employment relations and the determination of unit labour cost growth in US manufacturing industries

This paper examines the effect that unemployment and long-term employment relations exert on the determination of unit labour costs. The paper proceeds in three sections. Section one analyses the relationship between labour market conditions and unit labour costs by developping a simple model of a firm that relies upon dismissal threats to elicit work effort. The comparative static properties of this model suggest that a tightening of labour markets may result in an increase in unit labour costs. In addition, it is argued that the labour market disequilibrium that occurs at full employment levels of unemployment will likely result in an increase in the growth rate of unit labour costs. The second section of the paper reviews diverse theories of long-term employment relations (LTERs), each of which suggest that the presence of LTERs ought to reduce the effect that labour market conditions exert on unit labour costs. The third section of the paper presents empirical estimates of the effect unemployment and LTERs exert on unit labour costs. The central empirical findings can be briefly summarized. First, movements towards full employment increase the growth rate of wages, reduce the growth rate of labour productivity and increase the growth rate of unit labour costs. Secondly, where long-term employment relations are prevalent, the effect of unemployment on wage, labour productivity, and unit labour cost growth is diminished. The paper concludes by discussing the implications these findings have for effort regulation models and the macroeconomic foundations of microeconomic labour market structures     

转型期中国就业重构与城乡居民收入分配——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

笔者利用1992年～ 2009年的省际面板数据,就中国就业重构对城乡居民收入分配的影响进行实证分析与检验.结果表明,就业重构方向与城乡居民收入分配极化负相关,就业重构速度与城乡居民收入分配极化正相关；受城乡劳动力市场分割与城乡居民人力资本水平差异的约束,就业重构对城乡居民收入分配的极化效应大于平衡效应；在区域层面,就业重构对城乡居民收入分配的净极化效应由大到小的顺序分别为中部、西部和东部.     

集聚经济、公共基础设施与劳动生产率——来自中国城市动态面板数据的证据

文章采用2001-2007年中国城市面板数据实证检验了集聚经济、公共基础设施与城市非农劳动生产率的关系。结果表明:在控制住其他影响因素后,一个地区的就业密度和公共基础设施对其非农劳动生产率都有着显著为正的影响,但在忽略城市公共基础设施的情况下,集聚经济的估计值明显偏高了。     

中国制造业行业就业影响因素研究

本文通过建立影响中国就业的理论模型,运用有界协整方法和Granger因果检验法,对2001年第3季度至2007年第4季度间中国制造业各行业就业人数与人均实际资本存量、技术进步率和人民币实际汇率的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:无论在短期还是长期,(1)从总体上看,人均实际资本存量对中国就业的影响力度最大,而实际汇率变动及技术变迁对就业的影响力度偏低;(2)人均实际资本存量、人民币实际汇率、技术进步对中国行业就业的影响力因行业不同而呈现出复杂的相关关系。为稳定就业,应根据不同产业制定和选择相应的政策措施。     

中国产业结构和就业结构不平衡状态的动态分析：1979—2009（英文）

基于改革开放以来中国产业结构和就业结构的演变,对比较劳动生产率和三次产业的偏离度进行了实证研究。结果显示,中国产业结构和就业结构之间存在严重的不平衡状态,就业结构的变化显著地滞后于产业结构的变化。提出了协调产业结构和就业结构的建议。