互联网科技众筹运行模式创新研究

目前，互联网科技众筹存在两种基本运行模式——股权众筹模式和权益众筹模式，其在知识产权保护、政府扶持引导、法律规范、信用风险、社会认知和互联网科技众筹平台专业性等方面存在一些问题和不足。通过归纳总结，结合科技型中小企业和科技项目特点，创新性地提出知识产权保护模式、政府扶持引导模式、联动模式与增信模式；最后，从法律监管、自律监管、平台内部控制、社会监管与政府引导方面提出构建互联网科技众筹协同监管机制的建议，以规范和促进互联网科技众筹模式运行与发展，支持科技型中小企业发展。     

A Theoretical Model of the Effects of Public Funding on Saving Decisions by Charitable Nonprofit Service Providers

Why do charitable nonprofit, service‐providing organizations save? What are the tradeoffs between using income to build up cash reserves and serving more clients? Saving may generate income, protect the organization against a drop in donations, and increase the organization's chances of survival. Saving, though, may affect the likelihood that nonprofits receive private and public funding. We model the relationship among private and public income, economic conditions, and nonprofit savings. We find that anticipation of government help during difficult times tends to reduce the amount of saving done by the nonprofit. This effect is strengthened if government officials view unspent donations as indicative of a lack of need. Both these effects provide a strong incentive for nonprofits to spend on current consumption rather than to save for the future, and thus to increase the burden on the public purse.     

Intergenerational externalities,sustainability and welfare—The ambiguous effect of optimal policies on resource depletion

This paper studies an endogenous growth model with exhaustible resources, overlapping generations and human capital externalities. In the competitive equilibrium, selfish behavior and inefficient skills accumulation may prevent sustained growth. Implementing the utilitarian optimum likely induces sustainability via increased knowledge formation, but resource depletion may be faster or slower than under laissez-faire depending on the social discount rate. Heavy (modest) social discounting delays (anticipates) the achievement of net welfare gains for newborn agents and successors. The reason is that human capital accumulation magnifies the positive growth effects of policies that lower the rate of resource destruction, preserving the welfare of newborn agents. Resource-depleting policies, instead, hamper growth and reduce lifetime welfare of early-in-time generations—the first loser being the currently young.     

公共支出范围:分析与界定

本文建立一个新的理论假设 :政府存在的天然合理性在于防范和化解公共风险 (在不同历史条件下 ,其表现形式不同 ) ,并以此为逻辑起点 ,提出了两个基本观点 :一是公共风险决定公共支出 ;二是公共支出的使命是防范和化解公共风险。在此基础上 ,本文构筑了界定公共支出范围的两种基本方法———风险归宿分析法和反向假设分析法。     

Utopia competition: a new approach to the micro-foundations of sustainability transitions

We present a new evolutionary political economy approach to the study of transition dynamics based on a co-evolutionary model of differential citizen contributions to competing ‘utopias’—market fundamentalism, socialism, and environmentalism. We model sustainability transitions as an outcome of ‘utopia competition’ in which environmentalism manages to coexist with the market, while socialism vanishes. Our simulation-based framework suggests that the individual economic contributions of citizens to the battle of ideas—both the distribution within a utopia, and the interaction between different utopias—are crucial but much overlooked micro-factors in explaining the dynamics of sustainability transitions.     

Strategic planning III: Objectives and program options

This series of papers deals with technological forecasting in strategic planning. In the first paper the author examines forecasting and planning as a process, identifying five roles of forecasting (1) Identifying policy options; (2) Aiding strategy formulation; (3) Identifying program options; (4) Selecting programs for funding, and (5) Selecting opportunities for funding. The subsequent papers deal primarily with the first and third roles.The second paper of the series describes perspective trees—a form of relevance tree—for identifying policy options. A perspective tree is used to interrelate sets of social, economic, political, and technological forecasts that pote threats and present opportunities for strategic consideration.The third paper of the series describes the use of objective trees in structuring program options for selected strategies. R&D programs as well as marketing and other functional business programs are structured—clarifying options for the decision-making process.     

The effect of environmental and social performance on the stock performance of european corporations

This paper examines the effect of sustainability performance of European corporations on their stock performance, measured as the average monthly stock return from 1996 to 2001. The econometric analysis is based on common empirical asset pricing models, particularly on the multifactor model according to Fama and French (1993, Journal of Financial Economics, 33:3–56). The consideration of sustainability performance is two-fold: The average sustainability performance of the industry in which a corporation operates and the relative sustainability performance of a corporation within a given industry. The main result is that the average environmental performance of the industry has a significantly positive influence on the stock performance. In contrast, the average social performance of the industry has a significantly negative influence. The variables of the relative environmental or social performance of a corporation within a given industry have no significant effect on the stock performance. As a by-product, the econometric analysis implies that some results of Fama and French (1993, 1996, The Journal of Finance, LI (1):55–84) regarding the risk factors of the multifactor model need not hold true for different observation periods, for different stock markets, and for the use of single stocks (instead of portfolios). An erratum to this article can be found at     

社会创业导向、知识管理能力与NPO绩效的关系

以知识管理能力作为中介变量,将非营利组织(nonprofit organizations,NPO)的绩效分解为社会绩效和财务绩效,构建了社会创业导向与NPO绩效关联的理论模型。利用针对158家NPO所做的问卷调查的数据,借助结构方程建模等对理论模型进行实证分析。结果表明:社会创业导向、知识管理能力对NPO的社会绩效和财务绩效均有显著的正向影响;知识管理能力在社会创业导向与NPO的社会绩效和财务绩效的关系中分别具有部分中介作用和完全中介作用。     

Understanding nonprofit social enterprises: Lessons from Austrian economics

There is a large literature on the role of nonprofit enterprises within society. This literature typically views nonprofits as either substitutes for government enterprises or complements to, and even necessary extensions of, these government efforts. While this literature has improved our understanding of the role and importance of nonprofit social enterprises, how social entrepreneurs identify opportunities, allocate resources, and adapt to changing circumstances has been relatively underexplored. Efforts to fill this gap within Austrian economics have categorized nonprofits and identified the limitations of calculation and coordination in the nonprofit sector and the characteristics of successful and unsuccessful nonprofit enterprises. This strand of literature focuses on the differences between economic calculation in for-profit enterprises and decision making in nonprofit enterprises. We argue that another meaningful aspect to determining the ability of nonprofit enterprises to coordinate plans is whether they are structured more like private enterprises and public enterprises. These insights from Austrian economics shed light on why some nonprofits are more effective than others at achieving social goals.

     

Significance of environment in the assessment of sustainable development: The case for south west Victoria

The assessment of sustainable development is often based on the three pillars of sustainability model using social, economic and environmental indicators. It is thought that by measuring the performance of each system, information can be gained about the sustainability of the whole system. However it seems there has been no attempt to evaluate if such an assumption is true. During the development of a sustainability assessment framework for south west Victoria, Australia, it has become evident that this approach to sustainability assessment does not provide an accurate assessment of system sustainability. The project found that environmental indicators were considered the most important for assessing regional sustainability. As a consequence, the assessment produced shows that in south west Victoria, sustainability is largely determined by the condition of the environment. This finding highlights the current disconnection between the theory and reality of sustainability. Here, we describe a framework for sustainability assessment that attempts to re-connect theory to practice.     

社会保障筹资模式的路径选择——基于筹资模式的储蓄效应研究

随着人口老龄化的加剧,许多实行现收现付制社会保障制度的国家财政负担越来越重,为了保证社会保障制度的可持续性,各国开始寻求新的社会保障筹资模式。在世界银行主推的基金制社会保障制度浪潮下,二十世纪90年代开始,中国结合本国实际情况也开始了社会保障制度的改革,并于1997年开始实施社会保险基金的＂部分基金制＂,即现收现付制与完全基金制相结合的筹资模式。本文阐述了现收现付制和基金制的运行机理并探讨了其与储蓄的关系,并在此基础上,对我国的部分基金制进行解析。本文认为部分基金制的＂个人账户＂的储蓄功能目前无法得到实际发挥,由于我国目前的经济条件和收入差距悬殊等问题,使得部分基金制向完全基金制的转变应循序渐进,现收现付方式还应是我国目前实行的部分基金制中的侧重部分。     

Distributional Effects of Public Education in an Economy with Public Pensions*

We study how the allocation of government expenditures between two major outlays—education and pay‐as‐you‐go social security—affects human capital distribution in an economy with heterogeneous agents. We consider an overlapping generations economy where the government maintains both programs, and allocates tax revenues to finance them. In our model, human capital is one of the factors of production. It is itself produced as a combined result of public inputs and private inputs. Parents' decisions to invest time and material resources in education of their children are motivated by altruism, heterogeneous in its strength across the population, which leads to heterogeneity of incomes. We investigate the effect of an increase in public funding for education on the human capital distribution. We show that in this framework, contrary to some earlier results, increased spending on public education may lead to higher inequality. Our results depend crucially on the interaction of education funding with the social security budget and on the elasticity of substitution in the learning technology.     

The nonprofit sector and industry performance

Despite the importance of nonprofit industries in the economy, little analysis has been conducted as to whether the behavior of such industries differs from that of for-profit industries. Extending previous firm-level analyses, we propose a neoclassical theory with an endogenous nonprofit sector. Our analysis implies that nonprofit firms have a competitive advantage over for-profit firms, so that marginal changes in the industry operate through the for-profit sector. As such, marginal industry behavior is identical to that of a for-profit industry and nonprofit regulations may have a limited impact or even no impact on overall industry performance. Our theory has the methodological advantage that standard for-profit analysis applies directly to nonprofit firms, because they can be analyzed as for-profit firms with lower costs. We discuss aspects of the empirical literature that test this theory of nonprofit activity.     

Generalised Social Security Finance in a Two-Country World

This paper develops an overlapping generations model with generalised finance of social security in a two-country world. Social security finance includes a pay-as-you-go, a fully funded, and an optimal system as special cases. An increase in social security funding of country 1 increases capital, income and consumption per head in both countries. Also, it increases foreign assets in country 1 and foreign debt in country 2. The optimal level of social security funding is below the golden rule level. During adjustment an increase in funding has negative effects on country 1 and positive effects on country 2.     

Social security, public education and the growth-inequality relationship

We study how the relationship between economic growth and inequality depends upon the levels of funding of two of the largest government programs, public education and social security. We do this in the context of an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents where the government collects a tax on labor income to finance these programs. We show that in our model an increase in government spending on social security reduces income inequality and can have a non-monotonic effect on growth. When the initial level of social security funding is low, as is the case in most poor economies, then its increase will enhance growth. When its funding level is high as is typical for developed countries, we show that its further increase can slow down growth while reducing income inequality. These results obtain regardless of whether the increase in social security funding is financed by a tax increase or by cutting the public education budget. We also find that the effects of increasing the level of public education expenditures or the overall size of the government budget (holding the budget composition fixed) are characterized by similar non-monotonic growth-inequality relationships.     

The pace of fiscal consolidations,fiscal sustainability,and welfare: An overlapping generations approach

This study investigates expenditure- and tax-based consolidations under the rule of reductions in debt-to-GDP ratios to the target level and the effects of these consolidations on fiscal sustainability and welfare, using an overlapping generations model with exogenous growth settings. We derive (i) a threshold (ceiling) of public debt to ensure fiscal sustainability, (ii) sustainable paces of these consolidations, and (iii) the optimal pace of consolidations under both expenditure- and tax-based consolidations, examining whether these consolidations are effective in the sense that they are sustainable, increase welfare, and induce fairness of welfare distribution across generations (lower intergenerational conflicts over welfare). We find that the pace of tax-based consolidation required to ensure fiscal sustainability is higher than that required for expenditure-based consolidation. As for welfare, countries may differ in their choice of the type of consolidation, which depends on the size of outstanding debts relative to capital, the economy’s productivity, tax rate levels, and the extent of utility derived by individuals from public goods and services. More importantly, it may also depend on whether policymakers emphasize social welfare or fairness of welfare distribution between generations. By contrast, a common result from the viewpoints of both social welfare and fair distribution of welfare across generations is that fiscal consolidation cannot persist much longer than 30 years (one period in the model). This result will support the pace of consolidation in the EU: the Stability and Growth Pact.     

Religious Charities and Government Funding

The government has the responsibility of providing a social service to its citizens. It decides whether to award funds to a religious nonprofit, secular nonprofit, or to produce the service itself. Religious charities are willing to provide the service at lower costs if they can use the funds as an opportunity to proselytize their doctrine. This proselytizing alters the religious preferences of believers in society. In a situation of equal grants to religious charities, this has the consequence of reducing the number of extremists. Furthermore, conservative religious denominations may discriminate against non-religious individuals in the provision of the social service.     

中国的资本回报率有多高?-年份资本视角的宏观数据再估测

本文在从年份资本理论视角讨论投资、折旧和资本积累的基础上重估中国1993—2007年的资本回报率。结果显示,本文估测的税后名义资本回报率在8.0%到13.8%之间,税后实际资本回报率在6.9%到12.9%之间,明显低于现有结论。资本的异质性与年份效应导致高估折旧率、人为低估投资增长和资本存量,进而高估资本回报率。资本回报率的长期趋势由投资来源和增长扩张模式所决定,近年来资本回报率上升的主要原因是技术进步导致资本份额上升。高估资本回报率会误判要素价格政策的调整空间和效果,资本回报率水平不足以判断投资是否过度,中国的高投资驱动经济增长模式的可持续性值得深入讨论。     

The co-evolution of tax evasion,social capital and policy responses: a theoretical approach

The dynamic model presented in this paper intends to account for the evidence, which appears to be particularly significant for Italy, of the incidence of tax evasion in a certain region being negatively correlated with the level of social capital existing in that region. Besides including social capital among the determinants of tax evasion, we extend the model so as to incorporate a mechanism whereby the existing volume of opportunistic behavior—which is proxied by the level of tax evasion—has negative effects on the formation of new social capital, thus helping to explain how regional differences in the endowment of social capital and in the incidence of tax evasion co-evolve and why they tend to be highly persistent. The model seeks also to capture the fact that in a democracy the political determination necessary to effectively repress tax evasion depends on the voters’ propensity toward the phenomenon. Hence, one should expect that–in areas where a relatively large (small) number of citizens are tax cheaters—the consensus in favor of tough policies against tax evasion tends to be weak (strong) and short (long) lasting. Consistently with this intuition, the model shows that regions where social capital is relatively low and tax evasion is relatively high can do better in the long run (i.e., they can reach a steady state characterized by a higher level of social capital and a lower level of tax evasion) when tax-enforcement policies are determined at the national level rather than at the regional level. The opposite holds for regions where social capital is relatively high and tax evasion is relatively low.     

Maximising sustainability of Dutch dairy farming systems for different stakeholders: A modelling approach

A multi-attribute sustainability function is included into a dairy farm LP-model by using Weighted Goal Programming. The created Weighted Linear Goal Programming (WLGP)-model is used to maximise sustainability of different Dutch dairy farming systems and to analyse the impact of: (1) maximisation of individual sustainability aspects (economic, social and ecological sustainability) and (2) maximisation of overall sustainability using stakeholder preferences. Maximising the individual aspects of both dairy farming systems, i.e. conventional and organic, shows the trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability. For conventional as well as organic dairy farming maximum scores are highest for external social sustainability. The conventional dairy farm achieves a slightly higher score for overall sustainability than the organic dairy farm for all stakeholders (i.e. consumers and producers). This shows that it is possible for conventional dairy farms, similar to the conventional farm used in the analysis especially regarding the stocking density and under Dutch policy conditions, to achieve equal sustainability scores in comparison with organic dairy farms. It is concluded that the WLGP model is a suitable tool to analyse the sustainability of different dairy farming systems.