The Institutionalist Roots of Macroprudential Ideas: Veblen and Galbraith on Regulation,Policy Success and Overconfidence

One consequence of the global financial crisis has been to prompt debate over macroprudential regulation – meant to limit private risk-taking that threatens systemic stability. In this paper, we stress the roots of macroprudential ideas in the Institutionalist economics of Veblen and Galbraith in a way that highlights both unrecognised policy possibilities and underappreciated impediments to policy effectiveness, arguing in particular that regulatory success can breed overconfidence. First, we argue that while Veblen's views anticipated macroprudential arguments, they also obscured tensions between the technocratic acumen of policy ‘engineers’ and popular legitimacy. Second, we argue that while Galbraith's views similarly shaped the postwar Keynesian policy mix, they also echoed Veblen in underrating the potential for populist resentment of an intellectual ‘technostructure’. We conclude that while this analysis can be seen as highlighting an overlooked century of macroprudential debate, it also demonstrates the potential for technocratic overconfidence – which can eventually undermine policy legitimacy and effectiveness.     

“三化”并进的核心：农民市民化

我国已进入工业化、城镇化与农业现代化的“三化”并进时期,这一时期工作的难点是如何实现农业的现代化,而要实现农业的现代化,就必须使农民市民化。若农民能不断地转变为市民,农业中人地关系紧张的矛盾就能得以缓解,农业经营就能逐步从分散经营走向规模经营,农业现代化就能得以实现。农民市民化还能使我国的城镇化与工业化得以持续向前推进。同时,农民市民化对我国经济持续增长并走出中等收入国家陷阱也将具有重要作用。这需要政府积极推动制度变革以加快农民市民化进程。