A new institutional approach to pro-poor agricultural development: Lessons from Asia

Dr. Naya has been one of only two instructors of a course unique to the University of Hawaii called, “The Economics of Cooperation.” He was an early observer of deliberation councils and other institutions whereby the investment coordination problem was partly solved by extra-market cooperation in the East Asian “miracle” countries. These insights contributed to The Economics of Cooperation (1992), which featured the role of government as facilitator—a theme of Hawaii State Development Planning when Dr. Naya served on the Governor’s cabinet.Reconsidering government as a facilitator, and not as a replacement for markets, is one of the primary contributions of the New Institutional Economics (NIE). This paper extends and applies the facilitation perspective to the problem of agricultural development. Policy failures are detailed and sourced to the fallacy of misplaced exogeneity. In contrast, the method of fundamental explanation, inherent in NIE, acts as a corrective to misguided interventionism that has prevented pro-poor rural development from taking place.     

An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries

Many recent studies about East Asian countries discussed “natural” economic integration through trade, but there are few rigorous empirical studies on how their economies were affected by the evolution of economic integration within the region. This paper investigates the effect of bilateral trade dependence on the co-movement of business cycles for 10 East Asian countries. We find that economic fluctuations tend to be more synchronized within the region as trade interdependence among them deepens. This finding suggests the necessity of cooperative efforts to prevent or adjust unfavorable future economic crisis in East Asia.     

The “flying geese” model of Asian economic development: origin, theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications

This paper presents a comprehensive review of the “flying geese” (FG) model, which recently has become well known as a way of explaining rapid economic growth in East Asia. Kaname Akamatsu’s 1930s work introduced the concept. Through statistical analysis of industrial development in pre-war Japan, this author followed Akamatsu in developing a theoretical model called Kojima Model I. Subsequent works produced Kojima Models II and III.The regional transmission of FG industrialization has been noted as an engine of Asian economic growth, due in part to Saburo Okita’s forceful presentation of the theme of the FG model in a 1985 lecture. It is hoped that this paper will help to advance a better understanding of the FG model, its historical origin, its theoretical extensions, and its relevancy, as well as its incompleteness as a model of economic development.     

Health system reform in China: What role for private insurance?

The purpose of the present paper is to show that much of the literature on health economics and on the international experience with different forms of health system organization can be interpreted as supporting the idea that reliance on an unregulated market mechanism for organizing the production and financing of health services is likely to result in major problems both with respect to efficiency and equity. However, reliance on a centralized “command-and-control” model managed by government has also been shown to entail problems in practice. For this reason I argue that the best option at China's current state of development may be a compromise model in which competing private providers are given an important role, both for the production of health services and in the provision of health insurance, but in which the government intervenes (through regulation and direct provision) in such a way as to attain both a high degree of equity of access to health care, and to avoid the most significant forms of “market failure” that would arise in an unregulated private system.     

Patterns of industrialization and the flying geese model: the case of electronics in East Asia

We use the “flying geese” framework to study the change in the geography of comparative advantages in the electronics sector in East Asia, China and the USA. Doubts have been raised about the capacity of the “flying geese” model to interpret the most recent phases of Asian development, in particular as far as progress in the electronics sector is concerned. This paper takes issue against these negative conclusions on both theoretical and empirical grounds. On the theoretical side, the paper takes up the formulation proposed by Kaname Akamatsu, arguing that some of the critical observations raised against the model look to a distorted and simplified version of Akamatsu's original theory. Analyzing the behavior of the “revealed comparative advantage index” per products and area, it is concluded that the “flying geese model” is compatible with manifold industrial development models, increasing interdependence in an integrated area which crucially also includes the US, and that asymmetries and hierarchical order persist across the countries.     

Outsourcing the State? Public–Private Partnerships and Information Technologies in India

This paper examines public–private partnerships (PPPs) for development through the example of telecenters in two Indian states. How might a developmental state position itself with respect to civil society under a PPP model of service delivery? We find that each state’s political economy is reflected in its PPP strategy, but that in both states the emerging middle classes rather than the poor benefit most from ongoing telecenter projects. Outsourcing development services to private entities need not “privatize” the state but does alter the way in which citizens “see” the state. Service delivery through telecenters becomes a symbol of government efficiency and responsiveness.     

China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade (“over-trading”) varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.     

Lessons for Asia?: European experiences—in American perspective—in legitimizing market integration

The European Union has reached a deeper level of market integration than any other region. In many ways its success parallels the integration of national-level markets, particularly in the broadly similar continental project of the United States. This paper asks whether the EU and US cases hold any lessons for the pursuit of market integration in East Asia, and reaches two positive conclusions. First, the two Atlantic continental markets display a common content of institutions and policies that helped generate broad legitimacy for market integration. Secondly, while there is wide debate over the historical mechanisms that produced successful “embedded” market integration in the EU and the US, several of these mechanisms may be reproducible in East Asia.     

Is Devolution Democratization?

Recent attempts at introducing new forms of governance in forest management in India have focused on devolution to user-groups or village level “participatory committees.” Success or failure is attributed to the presence or absence of “social capital” among these groups. These groups have never existed outside the state, however, and social relations, including social capital, are continually being transformed by administrative and market forces. This paper argues that what matters is not the degree of government intervention, i.e., more or less devolution, or the degree of social capital among local communities, but state accountability. This can only be ensured through addressing questions of political reform.     

From New Order to Regional Autonomy: Shifting Dynamics of “Illegal” Logging in Kalimantan, Indonesia

In recent years there has been a tendency to view the seemingly irremediable spread of “illegal” logging in Indonesia in isolation, or as a result of disassociated and premeditated criminal acts. This paper proposes a different view of the problem by discussing the changing dynamics of the “illegal” logging sector in the two districts of Berau, East Kalimantan and Kotawaringin Timur, Central Kalimantan. It suggests that “illegal” logging is not a simple case of criminality, but a complex economic and political system involving multiple stakeholders. Furthermore, “illegal” logging is not a stationary condition that can be effectively dealt with through coercive or repressive measures alone. Rather, it should be viewed as a dynamic and changing system deeply engrained in the realities of rural life in Indonesia. Regional autonomy has also created a supportive environment for the “illegal” logging trade and allowed it to gain resilience.     

Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model

An important characteristic of trade in Asia is that the US dollar is the dominant invoicing currency. This fact might have a consequence on the region's choice of the currency regime. To investigate this possibility, I develop a three country “new open economy macroeconomics” model that consists of East Asia, Japan, and the US. Assuming that East Asia pegs its currency to a basket of the other two's currencies, the optimal basket weights are derived numerically. It is shown that the weights under a realistic invoicing pattern are drastically different from those in the textbook case of “producer currency pricing.” J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 569–589.     

American stock market development and performance, 1871–1929

The American stock market played a central role in the allocation of investment funds during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. During the same period the market underwent profound institutional change. Tests of market efficiency are employed to characterize the market's performance, and to ascertain what specific institutional features affected that performance. The market receives mixed reviews. At no time was evidence of substantial market inefficiency apparent. However, money market instability before World War I, and the absence of federal regulation after 1900 did cause stock prices to wander modestly from their “efficient market” values. In both cases intervention by the federal government appears to have improved market performance.     

Towards a sustainable growth path

For Japan’s economy, there were two tasks I embraced myself for: “how to return to a sustainable growth path” and “how to rebuild the financial system.” And for the Bank of Japan, there was also the important challenge of navigating our way on a new voyage in line with the principles of the new Bank of Japan Law, which came into effect at almost the same time as I became Governor.     

Exchange-rate volatility, trade and “fixing for life” in Thailand

At the outset of the 1997 financial crisis, the quest to find a more suitable exchange-rate policy has become an urgent task facing the East Asian economies. One of the key policies agreed under Thailand’s August 1997 Letter of Intent (LOI) with the IMF was the adoption of a more flexible exchange-rate policy. However, the country re-adopted its pre-1997 crisis rigid exchange-rate policy in early 1999. To grasp this “fixing for your life” phenomenon, we test the impact of the exchange-rate volatilities of Thailand’s baht against the yen and the US dollar on the performance of the country’s bilateral trades with the two key partners.     

Sustainable development and the local economy

This article sets out the divergence so far between the developing “environmental economics” and local authority “green strategies”. We propose a model of environmentally sustainable economic development. Our argument outlines “environmental efficiency” and more stringent “sustainability” objectives. It reviews current local authority activities and practices. All are within the “environmental efficiency” framework. It concludes by identifying opportunities created by recent government commitment to environmental improvement targets and argues that local authorities are well placed to take up the challenge of developing sustainable development in local economies. It suggests that this process will involve intervention in the market in a way not dissimilar to that adopted in the 1980s by local authorities concerned with developing socially progressive economic strategies and that this process might be termed “social environmentalism”.     

The rise and fall of deficit in Japan, 1965–1990

This paper investigates the fifteen-year period when the Japanese government deficit (defined as the deficit bond issues to the general budget) rose sharply and shrank to zero. Our main contribution is to differentiate the budget “plan” and the “actual” (ex post) budget in order to distinguish intention and surprise. From 1976 to 1979, deficit bonds were considered to be deliberately increased, because of little surprise (deviations of actual from planned budget) in deficits for these years. The deficit ratio was brought down in the 1980s, mainly by freezing expenditures at the nominal level and waiting for bracket creeps in taxes to catch up. Beyond a trend increase in the 1970s and a trend decrease in the 1980s, the Japanese government acted to pursue a fiscal expenditure fine-tuning.     

Women and political participation in Africa: Broadening the scope of research

The article argues for a more flexible and inclusive approach to research on women and the state in Africa and, in particular, women's political participation. Inter alia it suggests moving away from restricted Western definitions of politics, from overly aggregated notions both of “the state” and of “women,” and from too centralized a focus on government; and moving to include a greater appreciation of informal organizations, unusual modes of participation, uneven tradeoffs and even manipulated politics. Its concern is to ensure that we do not overlook or close off those narrow spaces of participation which may, by default, have been allowed to women, or which women may have fashioned for themselves.     

Capital markets and legal development: The China case

Recent research establishes a significant positive correlation between law and finance (and hence economic growth), restarting a debate on the “law matters” thesis. However, which way the causality goes is still not clear. The purpose of this paper is to use the ongoing reform experience of China, especially its capital market experience, to examine the direction of causality. First, we show that China's recent experience is largely consistent with Coffee's [Yale Law Journal 111 (2001, October)] “crash-then-law” interpretation of this correlation. Indeed, it is the large and clearly defined constituency of investors that has been a key driving force behind much of the recent legal progress. The rights and economic interests of this constituency have fundamentally challenged the traditional emphasis of the Chinese legal culture on administrative and criminal sanctions, but not on civil litigation law. Second, we compare the different contributions to legal change made by the stock market and the consumer product markets. We argue that capital markets are perhaps the most conducive to the formation of a politically powerful constituency and hence more aggressive legal change, because of (1) the higher degree of commonality among interested parties and (2) immediately measurable and tangible damages. These two characteristics not only allow investors to identify with each other more easily, but also create an ideal basis for more debate in the media, which in turn promotes the development of a legal culture.     

The economics of market coordination for the pre-Fed check-clearing system: A peek into the Bloomington (IL) node

On the basis of anecdotes centered on the alleged “circuitous routing of checks,” researchers focusing on the pre-Fed check-clearing system have usually argued that it was inefficient. In this paper we study a 1910 check remittance register from the State National Bank of Bloomington, Illinois—we dissect the way the bank forwarded checks to various destinations for clearing and collection. We find that the bank followed an orderly process of check remittance according to which checks tended to move in the “right direction.” This casts doubts on the alleged pervasiveness of cycling and circuitous routing of an extreme nature in the pre-Fed check-clearing process.