Purchasing Power Parity in South East Asian Countries Economies: A Cointegration Approach

This paper presents findings from a study of the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) conditions in five Asian economies. The cointegration tests using exchange rates and price indices from end-of-quarter observations over the last twenty years reject the PPP proposition for all countries. The absolute version of the PPP hypothesis is tested next by using lower frequency, that is, semi-annual and annual, data. In general these tests also failed to support the long-run PPP hypothesis. Further analysis using the Johansen-Juselius (1990) multivariate approach also failed to support the hypothesis.     

Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard

Long-run purchasing power parity (LRPPP), the basis of most open economy macroeconomic models, has proved difficult to back up empirically. However, there is one standout exception to the otherwise mixed results. Diebold, Hasted, and Rush (1991) are consistently cited as having found strong evidence of LRPPP by using a fractionally integrated moving-average model whose restrictions are looser than those of traditional unit root tests. We propose structural change rather than fractional integration as a plausible behavior pattern for the data. Using the Bai-Perron (1998) test for multiple structural change, we find mean shifts in each of the real exchange rates. When those shifts are included in the model, the speed of mean reversion is greatly improved. We assert that quick mean reversion around an occasionally changing mean provides a more reasonable representation of the data than does fractional integration.     

Nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard

Hegwood and Papell (2002) conclude on the basis of analysis in a linear framework that long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold for 16 real exchange rate series, which were analyzed in Diebold. I lusted, and Rush (1991) for the period 1792-1913 under the Gold Standard. Rather, PPP deviations are mean-reverting to a changing equilibrium—a quasi PPP (QPPP) theory. We analyze the real exchange rate adjustment mechanism for their data set assuming a nonlinear adjustment process allowing for both a constant and a mean shifting equilibrium. Our results confirm that real exchange rates at that time were stationary, symmetric, nonlinear processes that revert to a nonconstant equilibrium rate. Speeds of adjustment were much quicker when breaks were allowed.     

Purchasing Power Parity before and after the Adoption of the Euro

This paper examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the post–Bretton Woods era including the period after the introduction of the euro. The study applies a new nonlinear unit root test to the bilateral real exchange rates (RERs) of both European and other industrial countries with the French franc and German mark (and the euro after 1998), as well as the US dollar as numeraire currencies. The results of the study provide stronger support for PPP than any earlier studies of bilateral PPP for industrial countries and suggest that (1) PPP tends to hold well within the European Union (EU) even before the adoption of the euro, (2) the evidence for PPP becomes more significant for both EU and non-EU countries when the sample period is extended to the euro era, and (3) convergence toward PPP between the EU countries, especially between the euro-area countries, tends to be nonlinear, while it is likely to be linear for the non-EU industrial countries. JEL no. F31, F33, G15, C22     

Study on the Method of Regional Purchasing Power Parity in China

China is a country with great territory and the price level has remarkable disparity among various regions, which affects the accuracy of many economic indexes. Using the calculating way of the purchasing power parity of the United Nations International Comparison Project （ICP）, this paper chooses 127 samples of commodities and services as comparison programs for 31 provinces and calculates purchasing power parity of every province in 2002 by taking Shanghai as a norm. The aim of this article is to study the method of regional purchasing power parity of our country.     

The Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity for the Yen: Historical Overview

This paper examines the long-run behavior of the yen/dollar real exchange rate. Several series are spliced to compose long Japanese consumer and wholesale price indices, long U.S. consumer and wholesale price indices, and the yen/dollar exchange rate, from 1879 to 1995. The CPI-based real exchange rate tended to depreciate in the pre-WWII periods, but strongly appreciated in the post-WWII periods. The WPI-based real exchange rate did not show any trend in the pre-WWII periods, but appreciated moderately in the post-WWII periods. The unit root tests were not rejected for the CPI-based real exchange rate series, but some of them were rejected for the WPI-based real exchange rate series, suggesting mean reversion property only for the WPI-based series. The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis to explain a drift and/or a trend in the real exchange rate series had only a weak support.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 502–521. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan.     

相对购买力平价与人民币均衡汇率

本文简要回顾了购买力平价理论及其实证研究的发展,并利用单位根检验和协整检验两种方法对人民币汇率进行了相对购买力平价检验,结果证明人民币与美元之间的相对购买力平价是成立的。在此基础上按照相对购买力平价均衡汇率模型计算了人民币均衡汇率,结论是,用这种方法求解均衡汇率是根本不可取的。     

Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity: the Case of the Thai Baht*

This paper will examine the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the Thai baht vis-à-vis the currencies of Thailand's key trading partners under the new exchange rate regime using the cointegration technique. The major conclusions obtained from this empirical analysis may be broadly summarized as follows. First, the empirical evidence, based on the DF and ADF statistics, seems to suggest that the nominal exchange rates and relative prices are well characterized as non-stationary I(1) processes. Second, the cointegration analysis provides no evidence in support of a long-run equilibrium relationship between bilateral nominal exchange rates for the Thai baht vis-à-vis the currencies of Thailand's major trading partners and the corresponding relative price ratios. This implies rejection of PPP for these countries. If this is the case, considerable care should be taken in assessing the long-run implications for the real exchange rate, and thus competitiveness against Thailand's key trading partners, of shocks to the nominal exchange rate.     

Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era

We use the Johansen cointegration approach to assess the empirical validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) between the UK and Germany since the introduction of the euro. We conduct the empirical analysis in the context of the global financial crisis that began in 2007 and find that it directly affects the cointegration space. We fail to validate the Johansen and Juselius (1992) original hypothesis that nonstationarity of PPP associates with the nonstationarity of interest rate differentials to produce a stationary relation. On the other hand, we do not reject PPP. We find that PPP cointegrates with inflation differentials. We also find, contrary to conventional wisdom, that (i) equilibrium adjustment occurs between the German and UK inflation rates, while weak exogeneity exists for the German and UK interest rates and the PPP condition, and (ii) three common trends associated with the German interest rate the UK interest rate, and the PPP condition “push” the system with the German interest rate and the PPP condition playing dominant roles in affecting inflation in both Germany and the UK. These results cast serious doubt on the presumed independence of the UK monetary policy.     

Purchasing Power Parity in Developing Countries: Multi-Period Evidence Under the Current Float

Using panel unit root tests, we examine purchasing power parity (PPP) for US dollar real exchange rates of developing countries during the current floating rate period. Since evidence of PPP may vary from period to period, we examine the data for moving 10-year periods from 1976–85 up to 1990–99. We organize panels based on country characteristics influencing the validity of PPP. Those characteristics include openness, inflation, and the level and growth rate of per capita GDP. Although we find stronger evidence of PPP after 1980, our examination of panel data over 15 10-year periods yields only limited support for PPP.     

Yardstick Cost Comparison and Economies of Scale and Scope in Japan's Electric Power Industry

This paper utilizes a fixed-effects model of panel data analysis and estimates the translog cost function of the Japanese electric power industry from 1978 to 1998. First, we investigate whether the Japanese electric power industry is naturally monopolistic. We find that all electric power companies still benefit from both scale and scope economies and therefore, this industry remains a naturally mono-polistic industry. Second, in order to apply the idea of yardstick-type competition to a naturally monopolistic industry where costs are quite different between companies, we introduce two kinds of cost-comparison coefficients, one for the individually specific effects and the other for scale and scope economies.     

韩国与东亚各经济体的贸易结构变迁研究

文章结合Lall(2000)和杨汝岱(2008)的分类标准,进一步对SITC REV.3两位数分类水平上的62类产品进行再分类,并计算了1992~2014年韩国和东亚各经济体的显性比较优势指数、产品相似度指数、产业间互补指数和产业内互补指数。结果显示:第一,韩国和日本的产品相似性最强,两国的出口优势商品都以资本密集型和技术密集型产品为主;第二,我国和东盟国家出口商品的优势在持续增长,但在某些方面和韩国相比,仍存在一定差距;第三,韩国和东亚各经济体间的产业间贸易水平在不断下降,而产业内贸易水平呈上升趋势;第四,韩国和东亚各经济体间资源密集型产品的贸易以产业间互补为主;劳动密集型产品的贸易表现为产业间互补和产业内互补共存,资本密集型产品和技术密集型产品的贸易以产业内互补为主;第五,我国和韩国的贸易集中在纺织服装、电子电力和工程机械产品方面,因此,提高产品的技术含量是我国经济发展和对外贸易的重中之重。     

区域物流一体化发展的动力及相互作用机制研究

文章以成都、深圳、南京、武汉、西安、重庆、天津、青岛8市为研究对象,对区域物流一体化发展的动力进行实证研究,揭示了区域物流一体化发展的关键动力指标为地区生产总值、物流业增加值、社会物流总费用占GDP比例、单位生产产值派生的货运量、物流企业数、物流从业人员、单位从业人员创造的物流增加值,并提出了推动区域物流一体化发展的相关建议.     

人民币汇率购买力平价的面板数据协整检验——基于与发达国家货币和发展中国家货币之间的比较研究

文章使用面板数据协整检验的方法分别检验了1983年1月-2005年12月期间,人民币与发达国家货币,以及人民币与发展中国家货币的实际汇率是否满足购买力平价(PPP)。结果发现,这两个样本都基本支持PPP成立,但发展中国家样本的显著性要强于发达国家;当以1994年为分界点分为前后两个阶段时,虽然两个样本在前半段都支持PPP成立,但发达国家样本在后半段不满足PPP,而发展中国家样本的后半段PPP显著成立。进一步用完全修正OLS(FMOLS)方法检验发现强PPP不成立,支持弱PPP。     

Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration of Purchasing Power Parity: Further Evidence from Developing Countries

Abstract

The last quarter of the twentieth century was characterized by economic reforms in many formerly state-dominated economies. Among them, the reform attempts by China and India have attracted increasing attention in the popular media and academic research. This paper contribute to this research by using institutional theory to analyse the reforms in China and India and develop a framework to explain how reforms evolve. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of the dynamics of reform, helps policy-makers to formulate reform strategy, and international business executives to project the developmental trends in two of the world's largest emerging markets.     

WTO《政府采购协议》框架下我国政府采购制度的完善

政府采购制度在西方发达国家已广泛应用。在我国,该制度的建立对于提高财政支出效益,增强国家财政的宏观调控能力具有重要意义。本文通过对WTO《政府采购协议》与我国政府采购制度差异的分析,就如何进一步完善我国政府采购制度提出了建议。     

比照MRP和JIT谈3C理论在采购中的应用

文章在介绍制造业发展趋势的基础上,分析了MRP和JIT在重复性生产情况下进行材料需求规划指导企业进行采购中存在的主要问题,为解决以上问题,引出了3C理论和该理论下物料需求速度材料表的计算,并结合实例探讨了应用3C理论确定重复性生产环境下企业物料最佳采购补给点,讨论了其应用的现实意义.