Austrian Policy for the Thatcher Government

'Austrian' economics – an approach developed by a succession of Austrian economists, Menger, Wieser, Böhm-Bawerk, Mises and now the latest and greatest, F. A. Hayek – whose influence is reflected in this New Statesman cartoon – has developed new adherents among younger economists in America, Britain and around the world. Here Alex Shand outlines the main elements of government policy as they could be if based on 'Austrian' economics.     

Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity?*

We investigate the economic significance of trading off empirical validity of models against other desirable model properties. Our investigation is based on three alternative econometric systems of the supply side, in a model that can be used to discuss optimal monetary policy in Norway. Our results caution against compromising empirical validity when selecting a model for policy analysis. We also find large costs from basing policies on the robust model, or on a suite of models, even when it contains the valid model. This confirms an important role for econometric modelling and evaluation in model choice for policy analysis.     

A Proposed Framework for Monetary Policy

Leave the ERM, cut interest rates and let the pound find its own level⃛ it's the cut and run option. The credibility of our anti-inflationary strategy would be in tatters. And quite soon interest rates would have to go back up again - Norman Lamont, in a speech to the European Policy Forum, July 1992.     

我国货币政策:面临的问题与政策建议

一、当前我国货币政策面临的问题与挑战 从长期来看,我国金融形势和货币政策方面存在一些慢性紧缩因素,需要逐步加以解决. (一)经济增长速度放慢,物价指数再次下降,货币政策的法定目标受到越来越大的压力和挑战     

从货币政策规则看货币政策中介目标选择

本文从货币政策最优规则和有效规则的角度出发，分析中央银行的福利损失情况，进而对不同的货币政策中介目标作出福利评判。     

The Monetary Policy Committee: an end-of-term evaluation

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee has controlled interest rates since June 1997. By comparing the MPC's record with that of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) and evaluating the degree of volatility in the financial markets, this paper concludes that in many respects the MPC succeeded in its task. However, whilst the lack of 'groupthink' and the record compared with the SMPC are commendable, increased financial market volatility suggests the MPC could have done better.     

Evaluating the Monetary Policy Committee

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has now been in operation for two years. How can one judge whether it is performing its tasks successfully? In this article Alan Budd considers some of the difficulties in answering what might appear to be a straightforward question.     

货币政策紧缩环境下公路建设筹融资所受影响及其对策

当前公路建设面临新的突出矛盾,一是中央金融政策发生根本性改变,货币政策从适度宽松之后,回归从紧。二是2008年以来,湖南省先后开工44个高速公路项目,总投资近3000亿元,在建和通车总里程超过6000公里。在地方政府融资平台贷款收紧的情况下,如何确保已开工项目顺利完工,确保巨额银行贷款如期还本付息,确保盘活公路存量资产,调整负债结构,降低融资成本,缓解当前货币紧缩形势下公路建设资金筹集问题,是公路发展面临前所未有的机遇和挑战。     

中国货币供应量政策实证评析

货币供应量是否合适，可以从实际货币供应量与中性货币供应量差异的角度来进行分析。中性货币供应量是指与一国经济自然增长率和正常货币深化系数相适应的货币供应量。本文通过中国改革开放以来的经验数据计算出中国经济的自然增长率和货币深化系数，从而得出相应的中性货币供应量。在此基础上，本文给出了一个评价中国货币政策的分析框架，并据此对中国改革开放以来的货币政策进行评价和提出相应的政策建议。     

货币政策透明度:基于中央银行视角的文献解读

货币政策透明度是指非对称信息在政策制定者与其他经济主体之间的披露程度,包括中央银行对政策相关信息的披露程度以及公众对政策信息的理解程度二层内涵;在实践中,政策制定者选择多大程度的透明度主要取决于实际的经济环境和政策目标,从纯经济学的角度来讲,政策有效性是决定是否要提高货币政策透明度的唯一原因;而从实践中来看,无论是透明还是隐秘的货币政策,都有可能实现比较理想的调控结果。     

Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence

We survey recent empirical evidence on monetary policy rules, and find that the emphasis in the political economy literature on institutional design (e.g. central bank independence and inflation targeting) is exaggerated. Formal institutional reform seems neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the observation of shifts in monetary policy rules. However, there is no doubt that in some cases (e.g. the UK following the start of inflation targeting in 1992, and Bank of England Independence in 1997), a major shift in monetary policy conduct is detectable. We also highlight the problems in explicitly testing the predictions of the political economy literature. Semi-structural modelling approaches, such as time-varying VAR models may be more useful in understanding policy rules, and the interaction between policy shifts and changes in the transmission mechanism.     

A Prescription for Monetary Policy in the Bush Administration

How should the Federal Reserve conduct monetary policy for stable growth and low inflation? Professor Anna Schwartz of the National Bureau of Economic Research in New York, argues that the American central bank should steadily reduce the rate of monetary growth.     

Briefing Paper: The Interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Economic and Monetary Union

This article explores the implications of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the conduct of fiscal policy. Under EMU, where the European Central Bank is successful in controlling inflation, the loss of seigniorage revenues causes a potential problem for public sector deficits. To prevent the debt-income ratio from spiralling upwards, a primary budget surplus is ultimately required. EMU has usually been considered as a strong central monetary authority which forces fiscal discipline on lax national governments. But this is not the only possibility. Because the debt ratio can be reduced by surprise inflation, the price expectations of the private sector are important. Once these are taken into account, EMU can be examined in a 'game' framework in which the reputation of the authorities and the existence or otherwise of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities becomes a critical factor.
The paper finds that where the authorities enjoy reputation and cooperate, a one-off reduction in public spending will lead to a permanent decline in the real interest rate and crowd in extra private spending (consumption and investment). Without reputation the cut in government spending has to be sustained. Where there is neither reputation nor cooperation, the outcome depends on the structure of the European economy and whether fiscal policy can effect the terms of trade between countries. If the terms of trade remain unchanged, the outturn is similar to the case of cooperation without reputation, but where the terms of trade can be improved in one country, there is no incentive to cut public spending. In this case the outturn is higher inflation with private spending crowded out.     

Trade Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission

Abstract.  Recently, an increasing number of papers have investigated the role of trade credit as an external source of finance when analyzing the monetary transmission mechanism. These works support the balance sheet-channel view and at the same time explain the difficulties encountered when looking for evidence in favor of the bank-lending channel. This paper presents a survey of the emerging literature on the role of trade credit in the transmission of monetary policy, trying to link it with the well-established credit-channel literature.     

No Case for Home-Taping Levy

Successive Governments have been unremittingly lobbied by the recording industry to impose a levy on blank cassette tapes to compensate it for the'negative externality' of home taping. Thomas Coskeran argues that the Government should rescind the Green Paper and seek a solution in the re-allocation of property rights.     

The MTFS or the EMS: Which Way for Credible Monetary Policy?

Since the latter part of 1988, the primary policy objective has been to head off a rise to double digit inflation. To this end, interest rates have been raised from 7112 per cent to 14per cent, while the public sector is running a large fiscal surplus. Despite this apparently very tight policy stance, policy is deficient in a crucial respect: it lacks credibility. The all too public divisions within government have weakened the efficacy of monetary policy, especially in financial markets. The ongoing uncertainty over who is in charge of the conduct of policy - No. 10 or No. 11 - further undermines confidence. The most urgent priority must be to reassert clear priorities and guidelines. In this Viewpoint, we consider how best to restore the credibility of monetary policy. There are two main possibilities: first, to reassert the Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) in an appropriate form; or to join the (Exchange Rate Mechanism of the) European Monetary System (EMS). We argue that it will be very hard to derive credibility benefits from a reassertion of the MTFS: because of the inflation record of the past decade and the twists and turns of past versions of the MTFS, a mere restatement will not resolve the uncertainties that result from known differences within the government. In particular, any restatement will rely on discretion and judgement in its implementation and this will weaken its beneficial effects on expectations. Instead we argue that entry into the EMS offers a tougher and more credible commitment for monetary policy. The Chancellor has been pushed to rule out UK entry until the second half of 1990 at the earliest, but the government should make a virtue of this by announcing a firm dale for entry next year. In the interim, it should encourage a debate about the appropriate rate for entry, a debate which will increasingly guide the foreign exchange market. The government should make it clear that in choosing this rate it will do so with the commitment to low inflation very much in mind, favouring a high exchange rate. Once in the EMS, the government should rule out the possibility of devaluing the pound in an EMS realignment. This provides a firm non- discretionary anchor for both monetary policy and inflation expectations. With this commitment, the principal gain from EMS entry will be establishing a regime of low inflation for the next decade: in this, choice of the exchange rate will be less crucial than the fact of entry.