通货膨胀目标制:加拿大银行的政策实践与启示

在加拿大的通货膨胀目标制政策框架下,中央银行定期向公众宣布政策通货膨胀目标,然后根据通货膨胀预测值与政策目标之间的差距来确定调控方向;在实践中,加拿大银行通过使用利率操作区间和公告操作,从而很好地实现了对市场流动性及短期利率目标的调控,进而影响到市场主体的经济决策,并最终成功实现了实际通货膨胀率稳定地波动在中央银行的目标范围内。基于此,我国有必要借鉴加拿大银行的做法,建立一个更为简单透明的政策操作框架,以保证货币政策操作的效果。     

Can highway investment policies influence regional growth?

If a highway investment policy instrument is to alter growth in the manner desired, two criteria must be satisfied: (1) the policy instrument must be implemented, and (2) the implementation must achieve the desired policy goal. A look at three decades of highway policy goals (slowing net population growth, reducing arterial congestion, and fostering city-specific population increases) and policy instruments (zoning and sewer restrictions, gridded networks, and highway facility construction or non-construction) provided insights regarding the extent to which Virginia's growth-oriented highway investment decisions satisfied these two criteria.Crucial to the first criterion is that a policy instrument will not be implemented if it lacks a supporting mechanism. For example, the policy instrument of gridded networks in this study lacked any ordinance, financial incentive, or training to facilitate its implementation. Crucial to the second criterion is that highway investments are not effective for achieving a growth-related policy goal. Development will continue in a region despite efforts to slow it by deleting new roads from master plans or will occur elsewhere despite efforts to target it in a specific area.     

ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

This paper demonstrates that fiscal policy is an effective and essential instrument of stabilisation macroeconomic policy. This is particularly so if it is co-ordinated with monetary policy, especially in the current worldwide economic situation.     

The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy

The spatial scale of an environmental problem is dictated by boundaries. Physical boundaries limit the extent of impacts while the scale of decision making creates perceived boundaries beyond which impacts are ignored by decision makers. While it is well understood that uncertainty and irreversibility will alter policy decisions aimed at alleviating environmental impacts, the effect of spatial scales, both physical and perceived, is less understood. When spatial scale is included in a real options model of environmental policy adoption results indicate that the importance and influence of spatial considerations depends on the level of uncertainty, stringency of the proposed policy and flexibility of the policy decision. Recognizing spatial scale may force policy adoption to take place within a window of current damage. When spatial scale is small or uncertainty high, this window for policy adoption can close precluding policy adoption entirely. This undermines well-known results demonstrating that changes in uncertainty will only alter the timing of policy adoption. In other instances, the policy adoption window remains open but the option value increases faster than the benefits of the policy creating a scenario where it is always preferable to delay. Here the inclusion of an option value can prevent adoption of policies that would be adopted according to traditional cost-benefit analysis. In general policy decisions will be most affected by spatial considerations when the spatial scale is small, damage is spreading fast, and the uncertainty in damage spread is high.     

Briefing Paper

The conventional post-war wisdom was that unemployment was a consequence of inadequate economic growth, and economic growth was to be secured by macro-economic policy. Inflation, by contrast, was increasingly seen as a matter to be dealt with by microeconomic policy - the panoply of controls and subsidies associated with the era of incomes policy … But the proper role of each is precisely the opposite of that assigned to it by the conventional post-war wisdom. It is the conquest of inflation, and not the pursuit of growth and employment, which is or should be the objective of macro-economic policy. And it is the creation of conditions conducive to growth and employment… which is or should be the objective of micro-economic policy.—Nigel Lawson, Fifth Mais Lecture, 1984.     

国际金融危机与中国财政政策设计：功能、目标、力度

本文结合国际金融危机,从理论和实践两方面探讨了中国财政政策设计和实施中存在的一些重要问题。一是从财政政策的维持和纠偏两方面,揭示了财政政策的基本功能,提出财政政策应该分为稳定和再稳定两类政策;二是从财政政策的经济和社会目标两方面,分析了财政政策目标错位问题,提出了财政政策目标应从实现经济增长调整为促进充分就业;三是从财政政策力度计量方面,考察了政府预算账户存在的问题,提出了单独设立稳定账户的设想。     

会计政策选择的伦理研究

会计政策选择虽然在形式上表现为会计过程中的一种行为规范,但它的价值取向往往影响着与企业利益相关的各利益集团,是各方利益博弈均衡的结果。由于新会计准则全面引入了公允价值计量方法,扩大了会计政策选择的空间,因此,从伦理的角度探讨会计政策选择问题,具有非常重要的现实意义。     

不确定条件下环境政策的时机选择

本文建立了一个连续时间模型，用于分析不确定条件下环境政策的时机选择。模型结果显示，环境政策的采用有两种不可逆性，而且它们在相反的方向上起作用：第一，旨在降低生态危害的政策对社会施加了沉淀成本。它产生立即采用这一政策而不是等待有关生态影响及其经济后果的更多信息的机会成本，这种机会成本使等待而不是现在就采纳政策更可取；第二，环境危害可能部分或完全不可逆。这就意味着立即采用一项政策而不是等待具有沉没收益，即负的机会成本。这种负的机会成本偏离了政策采用中传统的成本一收益分析。因此，现在立即采用一项政策可能是更合适的，即使传统的分析宣称它是不经济的。文章表明，不确定性对环境政策的时机选择有着重要的影响。     

财政政策与货币政策相对有效性研究

本文从实证的角度 ,对我国财政政策和货币政策的相对有效性进行了研究。运用协整分析方法并通过邹氏检验 ,对整个数据期间进行了制度检验。结果显示1980年以前平均来说 ,财政政策比货币政策有效 ,而其后平均来说货币政策比财政政策有效。这一结论与我国建国以来宏观经济调控政策选择的基本情况相吻合 ,为对宏观调控的政策选择提供了有力的支持。     

强制分红政策与公司代理成本:博弈模型与DID检验

不同于公司自觉的现金分红行为，强制分红政策在矫正公司分红行为的同时，会激起高管的消极抵制，所以它能否有效降低公司代理成本，尚难预料。为此，建立了一个混合策略完全信息静态博弈，说明了强制分红政策影响代理成本的作用机制，并将2011年出台的强制分红政策视为一个准自然实验，实证检验强制分红政策能否降低上市公司的代理成本。实证研究发现，强制分红政策能够显著抑制企业的代理成本。异质性检验结果表明，相对于中小板和微股利的上市公司而言，强制分红政策可以更加显著地降低那些主板上市公司和正常发放股利的公司的代理成本。研究结果不仅支持了股利代理成本理论，而且为进一步完善公司股利政策和保护中小股东权益提供了经验证据。     

The importance of rules-based monetary policy in practice

This paper draws on several actual policy experiences of the author to demonstrate why it is important to have a rules-based monetary policy. These experiences show that policy rules provide a needed “steady as you go” strategy and serve as an insurance against excessive intervention. They also show why in practice one must consider rules-based policy in the broader policy context in which the Federal Reserve operates.     

The policy delphi method: contribution to policy and strategy within energy organisations: a 2013 Malaysian case study with global implications

The policy delphi method is a process that seeks to generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue, such as strategy and policy for infrastructure and engineering asset management within asset-intensive organisations. The objectives of the policy delphi method are to: ensure that all possible options have been tabled for consideration, estimate the impact and consequences of any particular option, and to examine and estimate the acceptability of all the individual options. The committee process is commonly used to address a wide range of issues and decisions within organisations at management and operational levels. Committees dominate governance and management within nearly all types of organisations, however, it has been argued that the committee approach no longer functions as effectively in the realm of policy formulation as it once may have due to a lack of adequate structure for discussion. Due to the disadvantages of the Committee process, this research investigated the relevance and effectiveness of the policy delphi method in 2013 within the leading Malaysian energy organisation, with the provision of this practical case study of a policy delphi to elaborate the efficacy of this method for asset intensive organisations to develop strategy and policy.     

基于DFSR模型房地产税收政策对房价影响研究——以上海市为例

以上海市为研究区域,构建包含驱动力、状态、响应指标的DFSR模型来分析房地产税收政策对房价响应的评价体系,其中利用主成份分析法确定驱动力指标综合得分,再根据量化的各项指标,明确房地产税收政策在房价影响中的地位。研究结果表明,房地产税收政策的调整呈明显的周期性变化,在政策调控力度强的情况下,政策对房价的影响是非常明显的。同时房地产税收政策调控具有时滞性,政策的调控力度与房价的变化并不完全同步。最后提出相应的改革措施,为优化房地产税收政策提供建议与参考。     

Policy Capacity and Incapacity in Canada's Federal Government

Abstract

Governments, world-wide, are preoccupied with avoiding policy failure. A high level of policy capacity is considered one indicator of addressing this issue. Canada is typical of most countries where policy-related work tends to be centralized within its national capital city (Ottawa). There have been criticisms that on-the-ground perspectives are not conceded in policy decisions. Given the vast size and the decentralization of power, very little research has been dedicated to policy work conducted in its regions and whether it contributes to strengthening policy capacity. This article employs eight key hypotheses about contribution of Canadian regionally-based federal policy work to policy capacity based upon data derived from a national survey. A structural equation model (LISREL) is used to present the results. We find that regional-based policy work currently does little to enhance policy capacity. Policy work is divided along two distinct functional lines: traditional policy analysis and ‘street-level’ bureaucracy. The more engaging policy analysts belong to formal policy units which are a critical aspect of stronger policy capacity. The second factor contributing to policy capacity were attitudes towards the larger political arena.     

Monetary Policy; Questions of Adequacy, Design and Presentation

In this article John Flemming considers three possible modifications to the presentation and design of monetary policy. He argues first that it is odd to forecast the target variable – inflation – when it is policy to do what is necessary to deliver the target. What would be interesting would be a forecast of what interest rates might prove necessary. Secondly he considers the possibility that with monetary policy dedicated to price stability and fiscal policy to paying for public expenditure – and stabilising output – a third control might be appropriate to stabilise the financial system. Finally, and overlapping with the last, he explores ways in which asset price changes might be reflected in a broader measure of inflation – as recently suggested by Charles Goodhart and the IMF.     

A quantitative analysis of optimal sustainable monetary policies

This study examines the quantitative properties of optimal sustainable monetary policies using a monetary model with a stabilization bias. As in Kurozumi (2008), the optimal sustainable policy is a strategy considered in the absence of commitment technologies; however it is implemented following an optimal quasi-sustainable policy derived by assuming that the commitment technologies are present. This study finds that solving for the policy function of the optimal quasi-sustainable policy yields a result basically identical to the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy under a set of parameters commonly used in the literature. The simulation shows two further results: policymakers have incentive to deviate from the Ramsey-optimal commitment policy when the lagged output gap is large and the optimal quasi-sustainable policy endogenously diminishes the steadfastness of policymakers׳ commitment.     

美国与中国货币政策工具选择的差异分析

综合近十年美国与中国在货币政策运用方面的表现,文章认为存在着注重利率的调节和注重准备金率的调节两种不同取向。文中对这种差异从利率市场化、货币政策目标及金融市场发展程度三个层面分析,并分析两国在货币政策使用的效果,最后提出我国货币政策的调整应该依据具体的经济情况、加强中国利率市场化以及建立风险防范机制三点建议。     

What is Antidumping Policy Really About?

Dumping is whatever you can get the government to act against under the antidumping law. J. Michael Finger (1993, p.viii). Antidumping policy has become one of the most important instruments for protection in the international trade system, but at the same time it is the subject of an intense, though rather chaotic, debate. This paper provides an overview of the antidumping literature and the current issues. First it describes the origins of antidumping policy and provides some basic statistics on its current use drawn from several empirical studies. Next the paper discusses the economic foundations of antidumping law by examining the traditional and modern theories of dumping, as well as the industrial organization literature on price discrimination and predatory pricing. It is demonstrated that those economic foundations are weak. The paper also considers the fairness rationales for antidumping policy. Finally, it addresses the criticisms of antidumping laws, in particular in the context of the current antidumping versus competition policy debate, and discusses a variety of proposals for reform that have been made. The paper shows that the 1997 'cease fire' agreement between Canada and Chile is a promising approach toward reform of antidumping policy.     

Contexts of enterprise policy-making – an institutional perspective

Abstract

This paper advances our understanding of policy formulation, exploring how the particular institutional dynamics between the transnational and national levels of enterprise policy-making affect policy choices made by governments and consequently their outcomes. The paper argues that policy development occurs within a framework of dominating assumptions on enterprise, influential academic/policy communities and lesson-drawing from other countries’ experiences, which have led to a privileging of the transnational when making policy choices. Empirically, the paper draws on a post-socialist country case – Albania, and uses interviews with policy actors and documentary data from national governments and international organizations. The paper explores the dynamics involved, and the actors that shape, policy formulation and makes two contributions to the literature. First, it provides a conceptual framework on how to analyse policy formulation, extending recent work on the link between policy formulation and the intended outcomes of policies. Second, it offers a more nuanced conceptualization of enterprise policy formulation, arguing that policy formulation reflects the changing configurations of ideas, policy tools and resources, and actors involved in the process.     

Fiscal Policy in the UK

Although the conduct of macroeconomic policy in the UK has been very good by historical standards, Brian Henry argues in this article that there are shortcomings in the framework which mean it is less well suited to adverse shocks than it should be. He recommends that an extension of the present framework be made setting up a committee charged with the independent assessment of fiscal policy. This would help mitigate the lack of balance between monetary and fiscal policy which is evident at present. Fiscal judgements based on cyclical adjustments are too heavily dependant on domestic factors and underestimate the effects of the cycle on revenues. In consequence, fiscal policy, rather than supporting monetary, has been loosened and this indirectly accounts for the continuing strength of the exchange rate.