试论高校图书馆读者服务职能的社会化拓展

文章从高校图书馆读者职能社会化问题的讨论出发,探究了高校图书馆的社会属性及社会化服务职能,并对高校图书馆读者服务职能社会化拓展提出相应对策。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH: MEASUREMENT AND MODELS

Abstract. Analysts debating the consequences of a policy change for the wealth distribution may come to different conclusions because of different views about how the distribution should be defined and measured, or about the processes determining the distribution. The aim of this survey is to provide an analytical framework within which such conflicts may be assessed. The first part of the paper discusses conceptual issues in the definition of 'wealth', and compares methods of deriving estimates of wealth distribution. The second, and larger, part of the paper surveys lifecycle and intergenerational models of the distribution of wealth, including a discussion of the role played by inheritance. The presentation is largely theoretical. Indeed, one of the paper's conclusions is that empirical modelling of the wealth distribution is under-developed, at least for the purposes of addressing many topical policy issues.     

Strategic Delegation with Multiproduct Firms

This paper shows that a multiproduct firm may find it optimal not to delegate the sales of all products and therefore to employ different distribution channels for different products. It faces the following trade-off: There is a strategic effect associated with delegation, but if both products' sales are delegated, intrafirm competition is not internalized. By delegating the sales of just one of the products while selling the other product directly—partial delegation—the multiproduct manufacturer strikes just the right compromise: The externalities between its owns products are internalized partially while a strategic advantage is achieved against its rival single-product manufacturer. Partial delegation also holds if both products are sold by a common retailer; it dominates full delegation when both manufacturers are multiproduct firms .     

THE APPROPRIATE REDUCTION OF THE WEIGHTED EMPIRICAL PROCESS

Abstract. Using a new transformation (note (8)) to reduce down to [0,1], it is shown that the weighted empirical processes on [0,1] are always tight. This is shown to arise naturally through a discussion of a new inequality of MARCUS and ZINN (1984).     

Testing joint hypotheses when one of the alternatives is one-sided

We propose a class of statistics where the direction of one of the alternatives is incorporated. It is obtained by modifying a class of multivariate tests with elliptical confidence regions, not necessarily arising from normal-based distribution theory. The resulting statistics are easy to compute, they do not require the re-estimation of models subject to one-sided inequality restrictions, and their distributions do not require bounds-based inference. We derive explicit distribution and power functions, using them to prove some desirable properties of our class of modified tests. We then illustrate the relevance of the method by applying it to devising an improved test of random walks in autoregressive models with deterministic components. In this example, the usual alternative to a unit root is one-sided in the direction of stable roots, while deterministic components are allowed to go either way, and we show that it is beneficial to take the partially one-sided nature of the alternative into account.     

Political Leadership,Conflict and the Prospects for Constitutional Peace

The emphasis in constitutional political economy has been that new rules and institutions can be devised that improve the welfare of a society. Given the number of societies that are infected with political conflict and as a result lower levels of welfare, this paper attempts to analyse why we do not see more constitutional conventions aimed at eliminating conflict. The key idea is that expressively motivated group members may create incentives for instrumentally motivated group leaders such that it leads them to choose conflict rather than compromise. Nonetheless, it is not argued that such a peace is impossible to obtain. This leads to a further question, that if such a constitutional agreement could be found, would the expressive perspective alter the conventional instrumental perspective on the sort of constitutional reform that should be undertaken?     

Toward a coordination of inventory and distribution schedules for blood in disasters

The need for efficient blood supply is of more significance in the event of disasters, when there is a lack of coordination between distribution and inventory management. The recent earthquake in Kermanshah province in Iran is among such cases that confirmed the need for coordinating such schedules. In this respect, a two-stage stochastic programming (SP) approach is presented for planning supply of blood after disasters that can assist in inventory decisions under hybrid uncertainty, minimizing the shortage and wastages. The uncertainty stems from imprecise parameters and scenario variability, and a robust-fuzzy-stochastic programming (RFSP) approach is devised to hedge against the uncertainty. The perishability of blood, the substitutability of blood groups, and the age-based characteristic of blood are taken into account to make the model more reliable. The compromise programming is applied to solve the multi-objective model. The results illustrate that the RFSP model can make a reasonable trade-off between mean value, feasibility robustness, and optimality robustness, which results in a robust and reliable solution under disastrous conditions.     

Confidence Distribution,the Frequentist Distribution Estimator of a Parameter: A Review

In frequentist inference, we commonly use a single point (point estimator) or an interval (confidence interval/“interval estimator”) to estimate a parameter of interest. A very simple question is: Can we also use a distribution function (“distribution estimator”) to estimate a parameter of interest in frequentist inference in the style of a Bayesian posterior? The answer is affirmative, and confidence distribution is a natural choice of such a “distribution estimator”. The concept of a confidence distribution has a long history, and its interpretation has long been fused with fiducial inference. Historically, it has been misconstrued as a fiducial concept, and has not been fully developed in the frequentist framework. In recent years, confidence distribution has attracted a surge of renewed attention, and several developments have highlighted its promising potential as an effective inferential tool. This article reviews recent developments of confidence distributions, along with a modern definition and interpretation of the concept. It includes distributional inference based on confidence distributions and its extensions, optimality issues and their applications. Based on the new developments, the concept of a confidence distribution subsumes and unifies a wide range of examples, from regular parametric (fiducial distribution) examples to bootstrap distributions, significance (p‐value) functions, normalized likelihood functions, and, in some cases, Bayesian priors and posteriors. The discussion is entirely within the school of frequentist inference, with emphasis on applications providing useful statistical inference tools for problems where frequentist methods with good properties were previously unavailable or could not be easily obtained. Although it also draws attention to some of the differences and similarities among frequentist, fiducial and Bayesian approaches, the review is not intended to re‐open the philosophical debate that has lasted more than two hundred years. On the contrary, it is hoped that the article will help bridge the gaps between these different statistical procedures.     

General framework for the rotation of units in repeated survey sampling

Coordination of probabilistic samples is a challenging theoretical problem faced by statistical institutes. One of their aims is to obtain good estimates for each wave while spreading the response burden across the entire population. There is a collection of existing solutions that try to attend to these needs. These solutions, which were developed independently, are integrated in a general framework and their corresponding longitudinal designs are computed. The properties of these longitudinal designs are discussed. It is also noted that there is an antagonism between a good rotation and control over the cross-sectional sampling design. A compromise needs to be reached between the quality of the sample coordination, which appears to be optimal for a systematic longitudinal sampling design, and the freedom of choice of the cross-sectional design. In order to reach such a compromise, an algorithm that uses a new method of longitudinal sampling is proposed.     

“三网合一”的电子商务物流配送体系探讨

电子商务物流配送是现代物流配送在电子商务环境下的必然发展。通过对电子商务物流配送内涵的分析,提出一个合理、高效的电子商务物流配送体系应当是在实体配送网、虚拟配送网与客户营销网“三网合一”基础上的综合配送体系．并对“三网合一”的实施策略进行了探讨。     

Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis

The potential of group (vs. individual) forecasting is analyzed from the perspective of the social psychology of groups. The social decision scheme theory (SDST) is summarized, and several simulations are presented to demonstrate the dependence of group aggregation accuracy upon factors such as group size, the accuracy and distribution of individual forecasts, and shared representations of the forecasting problem. Many advantages and disadvantages of group aggregation are identified and related to four generic methods of group aggregation (statistical aggregation, prediction markets, the Delphi method, and face-to-face discussion). A number of aspects of forecasting problems are identified which should govern whether or not group forecasting can be relied upon, and if so, what aggregation method should be used.     

Characterizations of logarithmic series distrimtrans

The distributions of X, Y and (X. Y ), where X and Y are random variables with probability functions of a logarithmic series law, are characterized by the regression function of X on Y and the conditional distribution of Y given X. Moreover, characterizations are given for binomial or Pascal conditional distributions in terms of the regression function of X on Y and the marginal distribution of X.     

基于修正Nash谈判模型的科技创新合作收益分配研究

科技创新合作收益的分配对合作的可持续发展至关重要,目前还缺乏行之有效的模型和方案。文章利用NASH博弈的思想对两人收益分配问题展开讨论,进而扩展到多人收益分配问题,得出多人收益分配博弈的一个Nash均衡解。为反映各主体在科技创新收益分配中的权重,对收益分配的Nash谈判模型进行调整,从而得出修正的纳什均衡解。由此展开科技创新合作收益分配的方案探讨,为科技创新合作的可持续发展奠定理论基础。     

RANK TESTS IN 2X2 DESIGNS

Abstract. In literature numerous attempts can be found for the evaluation of two factor designs with fixed effects by means of rank tests. The aim of the present article is to show the limits of these methods and to give some new procedures for 2X2 designs. First, functionals of distribution functions shall be defined whose relations to the usual parameters of the linear model are analysed. These functionals are free of nuissance parameters under the respective hypothesis; they are estimated by special ranks of the data. The asymptotic distribution of these statistics is derived by a generalization of the Chemoff–Savage theorem for correlated random variables. The asymptotic variance depends on the parent distribution function but it can be estimated by using special rank methods. Thus, one obtains asymptotically distribution–free tests for two–factor designs with fixed effects. Some counter examples show why it is not possible to construct suitable rank tests for greater designs than the 2X2 design. The paper closes with a discussion of the drawbacks of the well known rank transform.     

Zero truncated Poisson integer-valued AR(1) model

In this paper, we introduce a new stationary integer-valued autoregressive process of the first order with zero truncated Poisson marginal distribution. We consider some properties of this process, such as autocorrelations, spectral density and multi-step ahead conditional expectation, variance and probability generating function. Stationary solution and its uniqueness are obtained with a discussion to strict stationarity and ergodicity of such process. We estimate the unknown parameters by using conditional least squares estimation, nonparametric estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. The asymptotic properties and asymptotic distributions of the conditional least squares estimators have been investigated. Some numerical results of the estimators are presented and some sample paths of the process are illustrated. Some possible applications of the introduced model are discussed.     

In the Name of the Practical: Unearthing the Hegemony of Pragmatics in the Discourse of Environmental Management*

abstract A prominent feature of the rapidly growing field of Environmental Management (EM) is its strong emphasis on pragmatic considerations. Much of EM's legitimacy stems from its own identity as having practical relevance in resolving contemporary environmental problems. With the help of Critical Discourse Analysis, our paper engages closely with the language of practicality in Environmental Management. We show how the message of practicality emerged through three core messages in the discourse, viz. economic utilitarianism, compromise and inter‐organizational collaboration. We further contend that in the actual material context of the complex biospheric environment, these messages may have less than pragmatic implications. We conclude with a discussion of ecological rationality in redefining the discourse of pragmatics in Environmental Management.     

On the continuity of representations of effectivity functions

An effectivity function assigns to each coalition of individuals in a society a family of subsets of alternatives such that the coalition can force the outcome of society’s choice to be a member of each of the subsets separately. A representation of an effectivity function is a game form with the same power structure as that specified by the effectivity function. In the present paper we investigate the continuity properties of the outcome functions of such representation. It is shown that while it is not in general possible to find continuous representations, there are important subfamilies of effectivity functions for which continuous representations exist. Moreover, it is found that in the study of continuous representations one may practically restrict attention to effectivity functions on the Cantor set. Here it is found that general effectivity functions have representations with lower or upper semicontinuous outcome function.     

Limit theorems for multivariate discrete distributions

According to the usual law of small numbers a multivariate Poisson distribution is derived by defining an appropriate model for multivariate Binomial distributions and examining their behaviour for large numbers of trials and small probabilities of marginal and simultaneous successes. The weak limit law is a generalization of Poisson's distribution to larger finite dimensions with arbitrary dependence structure. Compounding this multivariate Poisson distribution by a Gamma distribution results in a multivariate Pascal distribution which is again asymptotically multivariate Poisson. These Pascal distributions contain a class of multivariate geometric distributions. Finally the bivariate Binomial distribution is shown to be the limit law of appropriate bivariate hypergeometric distributions. Proving the limit theorems mentioned here as well as understanding the corresponding limit distributions becomes feasible by using probability generating functions.     

Robust Likelihood Methods Based on the Skew-t and Related Distributions

The robustness problem is tackled by adopting a parametric class of distributions flexible enough to match the behaviour of the observed data. In a variety of practical cases, one reasonable option is to consider distributions which include parameters to regulate their skewness and kurtosis. As a specific representative of this approach, the skew‐t distribution is explored in more detail and reasons are given to adopt this option as a sensible general‐purpose compromise between robustness and simplicity, both of treatment and of interpretation of the outcome. Some theoretical arguments, outcomes of a few simulation experiments and various wide‐ranging examples with real data are provided in support of the claim.     

Forecasting and loss functions

This paper considers two problems of interpreting forecasting competition error statistics. The first problem is concerned with the importance of linking the error measure (loss function) used in evaluating a forecasting model with the loss function used in estimating the model. It is argued that because the variety of uses of any single forecast, such matching is impractical. Secondly, there is little evidence that matching would have any impact on comparative forecast performance, however measured. As a consequence the results of forecasting competitions are not affected by this problem. The second problem is concerned with the interpreting performance, when evaluated through M(ean) S(quare) E(rror). The authors show that in the Makridakis Competition, good MSE performance is solely due to performance on a small number of the 1001 series, and arises because of the effects of scale. They conclude that comparisons of forecasting accuracy based on MSE are subject to major problems of interpretation.