中国入世后的就业形势与失业控制

如何看待我国当前的就业形势,要从社会历史发展的角度,用科学的态度来分析。如果放在市场经济这样一个大范围内,用世界的眼光来看,我国的失业率并不特别高。关键是要完善中国劳动力市场统计,从中国的具体国情出发,确定失业警戒线,并集思广益,充分发挥社会伙伴的积极性,有效地发展经济和促进就业。     

Seasonal Employment, Seasonal Unemployment and Unemployment Compensation: The Case of the Tourist Industry of the Greek Islands

Abstract . A theoretical and empirical investigation of the employment opportunities generated in the tourist industry of the Greek islands, this study supports the conventional thesis that unemployment is not necessarily produced by seasonal employment. Unemployment following a period of seasonal employment may be voluntary or involuntary. Some employees choose seasonal occupations because they pay more. Others do so because seasonal occupations suit their non-market activities during their off-peak season(s), or they may lack any other occupational alternatives. Any unemployment compensation policy designed to smooth out the seasonal nature of employment in industries such as tourism may accentuate the unemployment problem.     

关于菏泽市失业保险促进就业和稳定就业的调查与思考

为充分发挥失业保险在新形势下促进就业和稳定就业的作用,文章从实践的角度对菏泽市近两年失业保险促进就业和稳定就业的作用进行了调查研究分析,找出了目前存在的问题,并提出相应的意见和建议。     

Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?*

This study examines the unemployment experiences of young men in the United Kingdom over the period 1982.IV–1998.I. The empirical results show that repeated unemployment is a dominant feature of the UK labour market and that individual heterogeneity affects mainly the incidence of unemployment and only to a much lesser extent the duration of unemployment. We estimate that about 73% of the young unemployed find stable employment before the age of 35. The remaining 27%, concentrated among the lower‐skilled, keep returning into unemployment, suggesting structural employment instability. These findings imply that a labour market programme targeted at increasing the employability of the young unemployed would yield long‐term benefits by not only getting them out of unemployment but also keeping them out of unemployment.     

Job Insecurity and the Difficulty of Regaining Employment: An Empirical Study of Unemployment Expectations

It is widely assumed that British workers have become more insecure over he last decade. This paper sets out to establish whether the popular assumption is correct. We examine changes in measures of workers' insecurity using direct measures of their unemployment expectations, using data colleted by the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) in 1986 and by the Skills Survey (SS) in 1997. The paper also investigates how closely subjective measures of insecurity are related to objective measures commonly used as proxies, and analyses how these expectations are determined. It finds that: i. In aggregate job insecurity, measured as the expected risk of job loss, has changed little, while the expected difficulty of regaining employment has fallen over the last decade. ii. Job insecurity has increased among non-manual workers, while it has fallen among non-manual workers, who were traditionally less secure in the first place. iii. Unemployment in the external labour market has a large impact onindividuals' expectations of unemployment and on their expectations of re-employment. vi. There is a strong positive association between a job being temporary and insecurity. It is valid, therefore, to see a possible problem of rising subjective insecurity if there is a rising proportion of temporary workers in the labour force. v. Job tenure and job insecurity follow a U-shaped relationship. vi. The fall in unemployment from 1986 to 1997 would have been predicted to induce a substantial fall in job insecurity, that this fall did not materialise suggests that there has been an upward shift in job nsecurity.     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

Unemployment and liquidity constraints

We present a dynamic framework for the interaction between borrowing (liquidity) constraints and deviations of actual hours from desired hours, both measured by discrete‐valued indicators, and estimate it as a system of dynamic binary and ordered probit models with panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We analyze a household's propensity to be liquidity constrained by means of a dynamic binary probit model. We analyze qualitative aspects of the conditions of employment, namely whether the household head is involuntarily overemployed, voluntarily employed, or involuntarily underemployed or unemployed, by means of a dynamic ordered probit model. We focus on the possible interaction between the two types of constraints. We estimate these models jointly using maximum simulated likelihood, where we allow for individual random effects along with an autoregressive process for the general error term in each equation. A novel feature of our method is that it allows for the random effects to be correlated with regressors in a time‐invariant fashion. Our results provide strong support for the basic theory of constrained behavior and the interaction between liquidity constraints and exogenous constraints on labor supply. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dependency and Unemployment Compensation

Paul Ashton of Liverpool University describes the effects on the unemployed of the social security system and concludes that radical reform is necessary to increase work incentives.     

宏观调控与失业

本文在其他学者研究隐性失业的基础上得出：总失业率（登记失业率与隐性失业率之和）与经济增长率存在着一个稳定的奥肯关系，即由于宏观调控以来一直保持较高的经济增长率，我国的总失业率实际上在以较高的速度下降。由于总失业率与经济增长率这种稳定的关系，因此总失业率可以做为一个内生变量进入笔者根据泰勒模型改造的宏观调控模型。本文暗示的政策建议是：保持较高的经济增长率会使隐性失业率迅速下降到一个临界值，之后才会使登记失业率下降。     

Unemployment Insurance

The introduction of social insurance in Britain stemmed ultimately from Beveridge's and others' desire to abolish poverty. Beveridge failed to understand that social insurance is incompatible with private insurance markets, and especially unemployment insurance.     

New Insights into Unemployment Duration and Post Unemployment Earnings in Germany*

Building on non‐stationary search theory ( Mortensen, 1977 ; Van den Berg, 1990 ), this article estimates the effects of UB on unemployment durations and future earnings using unique administrative data in Germany. We apply censored Box–Cox quantile regression. Our results imply that the length of entitlement shows only a weak effect on unemployment duration for entitlement lengths up to 12 months and no effect on post unemployment earnings. There are noticeable effects on exits from unemployment for entitlement lengths above 12 months. A high wage replacement rate for low‐wage earners is associated with a longer duration of unemployment and higher post unemployment earnings.     

完善失业保险预防失业功能的思考

失业保险制度作为我国社会保险制度的一个重要组成部分,其所发挥的功能和作用对于维护经济和社会的稳定有着重要意义,尤其是预防失业这一功能。当下经济全球化和社会主义市场经济的发展,使得我国经济正在面临前所未有的挑战,企业经营的风险不断加大,这也就意味着劳动者失业的风险也在加大。针对如何缓解这一现象,作为经济稳定器和减压阀的失业保险[1]有着重大责任和义务。其中预防失业、促进就业也就成为了重中之重,迫切的需要进行完善和改革。     

Hysteresis in Unemployment

After two decades of ratcheting unemployment in Europe, most economists agree that structural changes associated with higher equilibrium rates of unemployment have occurred. But the direction of causality is a matter of controversy: Have the structural changes caused the long-lasting increases in actual unemployment? Or have the increases in actual unemployment caused the structural changes? The latter possibility is often referred to as hysteresis. During the past decade, a distinct research program has evolved around the idea that equilibrium employment tracks actual unemployment. This survey reviews the various hysteretic explanations offered in the literature and evaluates their empirical standing.     

关于失业问题的思考

当前社会,失业是一个较为普遍的国际性问题,中国在建立社会主义市场经济体制和二元经济结构转换过程中,特别是20世纪90年代后期以来,也出现了严峻的就业压力。文章在深入分析我国失业现状的基础上,认为我们应该根据中国国情,制定促进就业的经济发展战略和积极的就业政策,以有力促进我国经济社会协调发展。