基于动车运用的高速铁路列车运行图鲁棒性研究

基于离散事件动态系统理论,将列车发车作为基本事件,运用Max-Plus Algebra方法建立列车运行图的状态动力学方程和列车晚点传播模型;设计列车次序可调整条件下晚点传播的计算流程及方法,研究状态矩阵的更新,使Max-Plus Algebra能够适用于状态矩阵改变的迭代运算;最后综合评价列车发车次序调整、设置交路接续冗余时间及动车组交路调整3种策略对列车运行图鲁棒性的影响。案例计算结果表明,合理设置交路接续冗余时间、调整列车发车次序和调整交路能够有效消减列车晚点,提高列车运行图的鲁棒性。     

列车延误对铁路运输企业成本的影响分析

列车延误会增加铁路运输企业的运输成本,直接关系到列车运行调整策略、对内定责和对外索赔等。为衡量列车延误导致运输企业的损失,从材料、燃料、工资及附加、折旧等生产成本要素的角度,以及线路能力角度研究单列车延误对运输成本的影响,提出列车延误导致各项成本增量的计算方法,并对相互之间无影响、连带晚点、晚点列车避让3种典型情况下的列车延误时间进行分析,得出多列车条件下晚点对运输企业成本影响的计算方法。     

基于模糊神经网络的列车运行调整模型

在分析列车运行调整的基础上,以列车经各调整区段总的调整时间最少为优化目标,建立运行调整的优化模型,并进一步提出一种基于模糊神经网络的,更简单、易行的列车运行调整模型用于对晚点列车的运行调整.     

基于移动闭塞的单线铁路扩能方案研究

我国自主研发的新型列车控制系统实现移动闭塞,而部分既有单线铁路线路运输能力存在不足。以移动闭塞作为单线铁路扩能手段,在论述其可行性的基础上,结合牵引计算理论,分析移动闭塞2种运行模式下区间追踪运行间隔时间、车站间隔时间的计算方法,并以青藏线格拉段为案例,分析列车运行图结构,阐述集中交会理论及该交会方式下通过能力计算方法,通过采用该方法计算格拉段应用移动闭塞的线路通过能力可提升10%,可以成为提升单线铁路能力的重要措施。     

铁路列车晚点时间预测方法研究

列车晚点预测是对列车运行干扰和晚点传播等影响程度的预估,可以辅助调度人员决策,优化旅客出行链,提高运输质量和安全性。分析列车晚点时间传播规律,构建列车晚点时间被动关系网,表示列车到达、出发时刻的制约关系。以武广高速铁路列车为例,分析列车晚点时间分布规律,以此作为晚点预测的基础数据。基于广义回归模型公式,利用Logistic回归模型和Poisson回归模型分别预测相邻、相间列车晚点时间。回归模型的预测精度比较结果表明,利用Logistic回归模型预测相邻晚点时间精度较高,预测结果与真实值大小、范围和变化趋势吻合度较好,具有较好的预测效果。     

面向旅客到达晚点最小的高速铁路列车运行图冗余时间布局优化研究

高速铁路列车是为旅客提供的高质量运输产品，具有运行速度高、密度大等特点。然而随机出现的运行干扰会导致列车晚点，由于列车之间存在关联及安全间隔约束，晚点还会进一步扩大，扰乱高速铁路运输组织秩序，导致乘车旅客到达晚点，降低运输服务质量。在运行图中设置冗余时间，增加运行图弹性，是吸收列车晚点的重要方式。通过构建高速铁路列车运行图网络模型，推算考虑冗余时间的列车晚点概率密度函数，以旅客到达晚点总时间期望值最小为目标，建立高速铁路列车运行图冗余时间布局优化模型，设计贪心算法，以京沪高速铁路北京南—济南西区段为例进行分析。研究结果表明，模型求解得出的冗余时间布局能够较好降低旅客到达晚点总时间期望，对保障运输组织秩序，提升客运服务质量具有积极意义。     

连续开行高等级客车对单线半自闭区段能力影响分析

以达成线成都—遂宁单线半自动闭塞区段为例,通过计算机编图软件模拟分析,研究了在繁忙时段连续开行高等级旅客列车对全段通过能力和旅行速度的影响。总的研究结果表明高等级列车的连续开行对全线通过能力没有显著影响,同时对高等级列车连续开行采用不同时间间隔时,在列车速度、扣除系数等指标的影响方面也给出了一些具体结论。     

基于满意度分析的高速铁路列车运行调整优化研究

为了研究高速铁路列车在恶劣天气影响下导致区段临时限速情景下的列车运行调整问题,文中选择总晚点时间和晚点列数2个指标,分别转化为列车延误满意度和正点率满意度,建立线性满意度、梯形满意度和传统多目标线性加权模型,通过改变列车到发时刻、运行径路、次序等实现高效、准点的列车运行调整。最后设计一个限速场景,运用软件求解,通过改变总晚点时间和晚点列数的权重,得到模型的帕累托解,结果表明满意度模型的帕累托解优于线性加权模型。此外,算例验证了梯形满意度线性加权模型从计算时间上优于传统多目标线性加权模型,提出的满意优化模型可以辅助调度员在发布限速命令后尽快获得满意的调度方案。     

提高高速列车正点率的对策研究

影响高速列车正点率的主要影响因素有设备因素、人为因素和环境因素.在分析晚点列车分类和晚点传播特点的基础上,从控制直接影响列车正点率影响因素和控制晚点传播范围入手,针对各项影响因素,提出提高高速列车正点率的各项措施,以及调度部门对晚点列车的调整策略和调整方法,以有效降低列车晚点的发生、控制晚点列车的影响范围,提高高速列车服务水平.     

基于移动闭塞的重载列车追踪间隔模型研究

目前我国重载铁路普遍采用固定闭塞,列车追踪间隔较长且基本达到当前闭塞制式下的极限,而移动闭塞可以大幅度缩短列车追踪间隔,提高线路运输能力。因此根据我国重载列车运行特点,结合道路车辆跟驰理论,从工况选择的角度,分析建立基于移动闭塞的重载列车追踪间隔模型,并借助AnyLogic软件进行仿真研究。结果表明模型合理可行;出站和到站的列车运行最小追踪间隔时间大于区间内的列车运行最小追踪间隔时间;在考虑列车工况选择时,若前后列车均采取常用制动则最小追踪间隔时间更短。本次研究为缩短列车追踪间隔时间,提高重载铁路运输能力提供理论思考,也可为基于移动闭塞系统的重载列车自动驾驶做出理论探索。     

Addressing transit mode location bias in built environment-transit mode use research

Many studies have identified links between the built environment (BE) and transit use. However, little is known about whether the BE predictors of bus, train, tram and other transit modes are different. Studies to date typically analyze modes in combination; or analyze one mode at a time. A major barrier to comparing BE impacts on modes is the difference in the types of locations that tend to be serviced by each mode. A method is needed to account for this ‘mode location bias’ in order to draw robust comparison of the predictors of each mode.This study addresses this gap using data from Melbourne, Australia where three types of public transport modes (train, tram, bus) operate in tandem. Two approaches are applied to mitigate mode location bias: a) Co-located sampling – estimating ridership of different modes that are located in the same place; and b) Stratified BE sampling – observations are sampled from subcategories with similar BE characteristics.Regression analyses using both methods show that the BE variables impacting ridership vary by mode. Results from both samples suggest there are two common BE factors between tram and train, and between tram and bus; and three common BE factors between train and bus. The remaining BE predictors – three for train and tram and one for bus - are unique to each mode. The study's design makes it possible to confirm this finding is valid irrespective of the type of locations serviced by modes. This suggests planning and forecasting should consider the specific associations of different modes to their surrounding land use to accurately predict and match transit supply and demand. The Stratified sampling approach is recommended for treating location bias in future mode comparison, because it explains more ridership variability and offers a transferrable approach to generating representative samples.     

Predicting transit mode choice of New Jersey workers commuting to New York City from a stated preference survey

This study examines transit mode choice preferences of New Jersey commuters traveling to New York City (NYC) with the objective of assisting trans-Hudson ferry service planning on the basis of variables significantly affecting mode choice. A stated preference survey was conducted to collect data from a total of 2134 respondents who commute from northern New Jersey to NYC. A mixed multinomial logit model (MMLM) with random coefficients was used to analyze the data. The study considered the choice between four transit modes—ferry, PATH train, bus, and commuter rail—all of which can be used to cross the Hudson River to travel from New Jersey to NYC. Essential model results are presented for all four modes, but detailed results are discussed for only the ferry, PATH, and bus modes. Model results indicate that commuters' choices are affected not only by travel time and cost for the segment of the journey that crosses the Hudson River, but also reliability and comfort during that segment, number of access modes required by the journey, and travel time and cost of trips from home to stations/terminals before crossing the river. The results also show that commuters' attachment to the modes they currently use serves as a barrier to switching to other modes. The most important takeaway from this research for transit service planning is that there is a need to consider the attributes of both individual trip segments as well as entire journeys between commuters' home and work when exploring changes to transit service characteristics.     

Social inequalities of park accessibility in Shenzhen,China: The role of park quality,transport modes,and hierarchical socioeconomic characteristics

Identifying the geographic units with restricted access to intra-urban parks has become a hot issue in transport studies. Previous literature has examined the social inequalities of park accessibility under the Western context; however, the issue has seldomly investigated against the non-Western background, especially in China. Using a case of Shenzhen (China), this paper examines the accessibility to parks of three quality levels (official standard) under four transport modes (public transit, walking, bicycle, and private car). In particular, the daily travel time from each community (8117) to each park (625) was harvested from the Baidu Map during 18:30–20:30 in July 2016. We further, based on the travel time calculations, develop four baseline indicators (the weighted average, the minimum, the maximum, and the standard deviation travel time) and three tolerance indicators of park accessibility (weighted average travel time within visit tolerance thresholds, standard deviation travel time within visit tolerance thresholds, and number of parks within visit tolerance thresholds) to measure park accessibility for each community. Results show that the seven accessibility indicators generate different estimations and the quantified accessibility varies greatly with park quality levels and transport modes. Communities present greater variations in accessibility to the first quality level and second quality level parks via walking and public transit. In addition, hierarchical regression is utilized to quantify the relationships between park accessibility and sociodemographic characteristics at two geographic levels (community and district). It is found that the associations are subjected to park quality, transport modes, and geographic levels. In particular, we discover significant social inequalities in park accessibility under the mode of public transit, walking, and bicycle. Our study should provide some new insights into accessibility research and advance the understanding of unequal park provision in developing countries.     

不确定客流条件下轨道交通全日行车计划的决策模拟

城市轨道交通系统的运输组织需要根据客流特点编制列车开行计划,其中全日行车计划是列车开行计划的基础,对列车开行方案、列车运行图和车辆运用计划具有重要影响。在简要介绍全日行车计划编制的主要内容和步骤基础上,利用Crystal Ball软件对客流计划不确定条件下的全日行车计划的编制进行模拟分析,模拟结果得到了包含更多辅助信息的决策方案,也为实际应用提供了可操作的新方法和工具。     

Multi-city exploration of built environment and transit mode use: Comparison of Melbourne,Amsterdam and Boston

The built environment is an important determinant of travel demand and mode choice. Establishing the relationship between the built environment and transit use using direct models can help planners predict the impact of neighborhood-level changes, that are otherwise overlooked. However, limited research has compared the impacts of the built environment for different networks and for individual transit modes.This paper addresses this gap by developing built environment and transit use models for three multimodal networks, Amsterdam, Boston and Melbourne, using a consistent methodology. A sample of train, tram and bus sites with similar station-area built environments are selected and tested to establish if impacts differ by mode. It is the first study that develops neighborhood-level indicators for multiple locations using a consistent approach.This study compares results for ordinary least squares regression and two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression to examine the impact of transit supply endogeneity on results. Instrumented values are derived for bus and tram frequency in Melbourne and bus frequency in Boston. For other mode and city combinations, the 2SLS approach is less effective at removing endogeneity.Results confirm that different associations exist between the built environment and transit modes, after accounting for mode location bias, and that this is true in multiple networks. Local access and pedestrian connectivity are more important for bus use than other modes. Tram is related to commercial density. This finding is consistent for all samples. Land use mix and bicycle connectivity also tend to be associated with higher tram use. Train use is highest where opportunities exist to transfer with bus. Population density is commonly linked to ridership, but its significance varies by mode and network.More research is needed to understand the behavioral factors driving modal differences to help planners target interventions that result in optimal integration of land use with transit modes.     

青藏铁路低密度列车运行控制系统方案研究

青藏铁路具有日常行车密度低、突发运能需求高、沿线自然环境恶劣、维护成本高等特点。在分析目前青藏铁路增强型列车运行控制系统运用现状的基础上,根据青藏铁路行车密度较低的特点,制订低密度列车运行控制系统目标,提出青藏铁路低密度列车运行控制系统总体方案,分析基于北斗卫星导航的列车定位、宽带无线信息传输、移动闭塞、列车完整性检查、智能调度集中、列车自动驾驶等低密度列车运行控制系统关键技术的实现方法,以达到降低系统部署和运营成本,提高系统可靠性,提升运输效率的目的。     

基于换乘协调的城市轨道交通列车开行方案优化

针对目前我国城市轨道交通列车开行方案对于线路之间的换乘协调问题考虑较少存在的问题,结合城市轨道交通旅客换乘的特点,构建换乘机理模型,并以车站换乘旅客平均等待时间最短作为目标函数,设计优化模型对列车开行方案进行优化。通过算例分析,说明优化效果较为明显,对于地铁等城市轨道交通运营有一定的参考价值。     

Mode choice behavior modeling of ground access to airports: A case study in Istanbul,Turkey

The increase in air transportation mode share, thereby the passenger traffic at airports has made the ground access to the airports more important in recent years. The aim of this study is to analyze the ground access mode choice to airports by using Multinomial Logit (MNL). In particular, our focus is on how transit areas of influence affect the mode choice for travelling to airports. Atatürk International Airport (IST) in Istanbul, Turkey was selected for the analyses and the investigated modes to access IST were automobile, drop-off, public transit, and taxi. The results showed that significant factors and variables included the trip distance to access IST, type of destination, trip cost to IST, automobile ownership status, employment status, travelling group size, location of the trip origin with respect to public transit influence, and time difference between the flight time and departure time to IST. It is also concluded that if the trip origin to IST was inside the influence areas of public transit, then public transit would be more likely to be chosen over other modes for accessing IST.     

考虑货物到达与列车出发时间接续的货物列车编成辆数研究

铁路货物列车适当欠轴发车能够加速货车周转,保障货物运到时限。阐述货物到达情况与列车图定发车时刻间的接续关系,以铁路运输企业经济效益最大化为目标,建立基于接续时间的货物列车编成辆数波动模型,利用软件对算例进行列车编成辆数波动下的货物列车配流,同时分析最大、最小编成辆数与技术作业时间波动率对发送货车数量和货物运输收益的影响。结果表明,货物到达与列车编组的接续时间关系会直接影响列车编成辆数和货物列车配流方案的确定,发送货车数量和货物运输收益依不同的最大、最小编成辆数和技术作业时间波动率而有所变化。     

城市轨道交通大小交路结合快慢车开行方案优化

城市轨道交通线路可以实行大小交路的开行模式,以克服断面客流不均衡导致的能力浪费,而这种模式使长距离乘客的出行时间增加,可以在列车开行大小交路的基础上考虑开行快慢车。以乘客出行成本与企业运营成本最小为目标,考虑列车停站时间与客流需求的关系,将停站时间纳入乘客出行成本,建立双目标非线性整数优化模型,求解乘客与运营企业的成本博弈均衡点。通过算例验证模型的有效性,结果表明,相对于大小交路嵌套的运营模式,实行“大小交路+快慢车”的运营模式可以有效降低乘客出行成本与企业运营成本。