系统性金融风险测度方法研究综述

系统性金融风险的测度方法是理论与实务领域中一项复杂而前沿的研究课题.本文针对原理而不是具体的计算过程,对系统性金融风险的测度方法进行系统的梳理和评述,以期为相关领域的进一步研究提供借鉴.     

关联度与系统性风险研究——一个文献综述

2008年金融危机爆发后,对系统性风险的认识从"大而不倒"转向到"关联度太广而不能倒"。基于关联度视角研究系统性风险成为金融危机爆发后研究系统性风险的主流方向。本文详细梳理了金融危机前后有关"关联度与系统性风险"之间相关性的文献,总结关联度视角下测度系统性风险的挑战,并为未来的研究指出方向。     

Incorporating Enterprise Risk Management Into the Curriculum: The Delta Air Lines Case Study

This article describes a group project that was designed and implemented in an MBA-level corporate risk management class. The primary objective of this project is to integrate the concepts of enterprise risk management into the graduate-level risk management and insurance curriculum. This project combines both traditional and innovative risk management techniques into one semester-long group case study. The Delta Air Lines case study was divided into three segments to focus on three distinct objectives. The first component, identification of Delta's horizon risks, is designed to spur creative thinking among the groups. The second component, analysis of workers' compensation claims, is a very traditional risk management exercise in risk evaluation designed to utilize traditional statistical analysis techniques (specifically, trending). The third component is estimating both total loss distributions and layers of loss due to airline crashes for potential capital market risk financing alternatives. This component involves more innovative financial risk management techniques (i.e., distribution fitting and simulation analysis). The objective is to familiarize students with the current techniques being used to evaluate risks that are currently (or potentially) being securitized in the capital markets.     

Research Into the Aging Process: A Survey

Abstract

We are in the midst of a revolution in biological knowledge. Although research into the aging process was begun long before the Human Genome Project, it has benefited greatly from the powerful tools and techniques spun off from that endeavor. Current research is providing knowledge about life processes that may offer the prospect of slowing the aging process. Dr. Francis Collins, Director of the National Human Genome Research Institute, has predicted that “By 2030, major genes responsible for the aging process in humans will likely have been identified, and clinical trials with drugs to retard the process may well be getting underway” (Collins 2000). A growing number of scientists recognize extension of the maximum life span as a possibility.

The actuarial profession cannot lay claim to expertise in the area of mortality while ignoring scientific research into the causes of aging. This paper provides a brief overview of the subject and a bibliography for those interested in pursuing the matter further. It offers a brief historical perspective, a survey of current research, and a glimpse of future possibilities.?     

系统性金融风险成因、度量及监管研究综述

在当今经济社会中,防范系统性金融风险,提高金融业抗风险能力,受到了国内外政府机构和学者的空前关注.本文从系统性金融风险的成因、度量、监管三个角度,对国内外文献进行了分析整理.其中,系统性金融风险的成因有溢出效应、金融业的过度创新、信息不对称和金融市场的高杠杆性;系统性金融风险的度量办法主要有指标法和模型法;系统性金融风险的监管措施则主要包括监管主体、监管手段和宏观审慎监管三个方面.最后,就系统性金融风险成因的识别、度量和监管的优化以及宏观审慎框架的建立健全方面提出了建议.     

如何度量金融系统性风险:一个文献述评

本轮全球金融危机爆发以后,如何评估、防范与化解金融系统性风险,成为全球范围内广受关注的学术性与政策性问题,而全面、系统与准确地度量金融系统性风险,则是评估、防范和化解系统性风险的逻辑起点。本文首先系统介绍了近年来关于金融系统性风险度量研究的最新进展,并重点对各种度量方法的优劣势和有效性进行了详细评价;其次,全面梳理了我国金融系统性风险度量研究的现状,并指出我国相关研究的两大不足:缺乏针对中国具体国情的研究,未能充分考虑国内外系统性风险的联动;最后,在对国内外相关文献进行总结性述评的基础上,提出未来研究宜沿着两个方向展开:一是强化与完善系统性风险度量研究的理论基础,二是建立系统性风险度量方法有效性的评判标准。     

Operational Risk: A Survey

Operational risk has, in a relatively short period of time, risen from non‐recognition to prominence as the culprit for spectacular corporate collapses. This paper surveys the mushrooming literature on the subject, covering the definition, classification, characteristics, modeling and management of operational risk. It is concluded that operational risk is a controversial topic that will generate a significant amount of research in the years to come.     

Introducing Enterprise Risk Management Into the University Classroom: A Case Study

This article reports on the challenges faced when enterprise risk management courses (commonly studied by practitioners after several years of actuarial practice) were introduced into a postgraduate coursework degree, and taught concurrently with Actuarial Control Cycle (Part II) units. A small sample of students were interviewed, and the information gleaned from these interviews combined with the reflections provided by teaching staff is used to argue that although not problem‐free, the overall gain to students makes the project worthwhile. Assessment structure and use of class time in particular are examined as key features of the class, and potential improvements are suggested.     

金融稳定有关问题研究综述

金融稳定是一个古老而又现代、历久而又弥新的课题,其引起广泛关注是与 20世纪90年代以来世界各国频仍发生、带来惨重损失的金融危机及由此引发的社会动荡联系在一起的。金融稳定方面的理论研究在国內外尚处于起步的阶段。本文综述了国际上对金融稳定几个主要问题的研究进展状况,重点就金融稳定的框架、货币政策和金融稳定与中央银行和金融稳定等问题梳理、分析和评述了现有文献,以便促进金融稳定研究的进一步深入。     

The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature

This article reviews the recent literature on the politicaleconomy of growth, focusing on the research that has developedat the intersection of the endogenous growth literature andthe new political economy. It explores the relationships amongfour key variables: economic growth and capital accumulation,political instability, political freedom and democratic institutions,and income inequality.     

The Risk Balls Game: Transforming Risk and Insurance Into Tangible Concepts

The Risk Balls game is used as a game in an introductory insurance course to demonstrate in a tangible way the notion of risk and its relationship to insurance. Through playing with the ``risk balls,' each one representing a different type of risk, the students experience feelings of anxiety about risk, and later, the sense of anxiety reduction when they transfer the risk balls to insurers. The game incorporates complex concepts of risk transfer and risk reduction via pooling and sharing of risk. The mathematical implications of the law of large numbers are physically felt in the classroom when the students experience the relief associated with transferring the risk balls to insurers. The discussion that ensues during the game includes aspects of the underwriting process; moral hazard; adverse selection; the role of agents, insurers, and regulators; and the nature of the insurance contract. The game of risk balls stimulates lively group discussions and provides hands-on experience with risks such as premature death risk or fire risk and the fears associated with them.     

私募股权基金文献综述

私募股权基金首先在美国,其次在欧洲大陆和英国,得到了充分的发展。因此对美国和欧洲大陆私募股权基金市场的研究给亚洲新兴经济体,尤其是中国PE产业的发展提供了参考依据。本文首先界定私募股权基金的定义,然后从影响私募股权基金发展的因素、委托人-代理人风险控制、退出模式这三个层面对国内外文献进行梳理,最后对该如何培养有利于私募股权基金发展的外部环境提出了几点建议。     

Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research

This article reviews the extant research on systemic risk in the insurance sector and outlines new areas of research in this field. We summarize and classify 48 theoretical and empirical research papers from both academia and practitioner organizations. The survey reveals that traditional insurance activity in the life, nonlife, and reinsurance sectors neither contributes to systemic risk nor increases insurers’ vulnerability to impairments of the financial system. However, nontraditional activities (e.g., credit default swap underwriting) might increase vulnerability, and life insurers might be more vulnerable than nonlife insurers due to higher leverage. Whether nontraditional activities also contribute to systemic risk is not entirely clear; however, the activities with the potential to contribute to systemic risk include underwriting financial derivatives and providing financial guarantees. This article is not only likely of interest to academics but also highly relevant for the industry, regulators, and policymakers.     

OTC Clearing Arrangements for Bank Systemic Risk Regulation: A Simulation Approach

Based on a simulation approach, this paper compares different over‐the‐counter (OTC) clearing models regarding their netting efficiency and loss‐concentration implications. The results indicate that the mandatory clearing of all standardized OTC derivatives by a Central Counterparty (CCP) propagated by regulators would significantly decrease systemic risk as compared to existing clearing arrangements only if the multilateral netting benefits of the CCP and loss mutualization are fully attained. Therefore, regulators have to ensure that there is a critical mass of asset classes under mandatory clearing, that broad market participation in the CCP is enabled, and that there is an appropriate client asset protection regime.     

基于金融风险压力指数的系统性金融风险评估研究

加强宏观审慎管理成为国际金融危机后主要国际组织和经济体进行金融监管改革的核心内容,而防范系统性金融风险是宏观审慎管理的根本目标。本文在研究系统性金融风险相关理论的基础上,设计构建作为系统性金融风险测度指标的系统性金融风险压力指数,并对上海市的情况开展实证研究。     

Obstacles to Financial Development in Transition Economies: A Literature Survey

This survey of approximately 70 studies considers five causes of weak financial system development in transition economies. These are: problem loans and inadequate capital; the absence of a credit culture, giving rise to perverse incentives to continue to make bad loans; inadequate regulatory systems; deposit insurance; and weak legal systems. There results a perverse feedback loop across the various problem areas that constrains the development of solutions. Policy recommendations include a focus on basic contract law as a way to break the perverse feedback loop.     

The Basel Capital Accords and International Mortgage Markets: A Survey of the Literature

This paper surveys the literature on the impacts of the Basel Capital Accords on banking market profitability, competitiveness, structure and risk‐taking. Special emphasis is applied to the evolution of mortgage markets throughout the world over almost two decades of international bank regulatory policies.     

A Comparative Literature Survey of Islamic Finance and Banking

There has been large-scale growth in Islamic finance and banking in Muslim countries and around the world during the last twenty years. This growth is influenced by factors including the introduction of broad macroeconomic and structural reforms in financial systems, the liberalization of capital movements, privatization, the global integration of financial markets, and the introduction of innovative and new Islamic products. Islamic finance is now reaching new levels of sophistication. However, a complete Islamic financial system with its identifiable instruments and markets is still very much at an early stage of evolution. Many problems and challenges relating to Islamic instruments, financial markets, and regulations must be addressed and resolved. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive comparative review of the literature on the Islamic financial system. Specifically, we discuss the basic features of the Islamic finance and banking. We also introduce Islamic financial instruments in order to compare them to existing Western financial instruments and discuss the legal problems that investors in these instruments may encounter. The paper also gives a preliminary empirical assessment of the performance of Islamic banking and finance, and highlights the regulations, challenges and problems in the Islamic banking market.     

Analysis of Systemic Risk in the Insurance Industry

In this paper, we discuss the systemic relevance of the insurance sector. Systemic risk is defined as the propensity of a financial institution to be undercapitalised when the financial system as a whole is undercapitalised. By the law of large numbers, traditional lines of insurance with idiosyncratic non-catastrophic risks cannot be systemic. On the contrary, undiversified insurers specialised in activities whose insured risks are highly correlated with GDP are systemic. In the life insurance sector, some contractual clauses such as unhedged minimum guarantees and free options to surrender raise the chance of systemic relevance. On the contrary, life insurers satisfying the classic solvency capital requirements contribute to the liquidity of financial markets thanks to the long-termist approach of their portfolio management. Finally, using historical data in the U.S. on the contribution of different sectors to the aggregate volatility of the economy, we show that investment banking is almost twice as volatile as aggregate GDP, while insurance is one fifth as volatile as aggregate GDP. The insurance sector thus appears to be a stabilising force of the economy.