Indeterminacy with small externalities: The role of non-separable preferences

In this paper we consider a Ramsey one-sector model with non-separable homothetic preferences, endogenous labor and productive external effects arising from average levels of capital and labor. We show that indeterminacy cannot arise when there are only capital externalities but that it does occur when there are only labor external effects. We prove that sunspot fluctuations are fully consistent with small market imperfections and realistic calibrations for the elasticity of capital–labor substitution (including the Cobb-Douglas specification) provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of labor supply are large enough.     

Negishi–Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy

This paper introduces efficiency wages designed to provide workers with incentives to make appropriate effort levels, and involuntary unemployment, along the pioneering lines of Negishi (1979) , Solow (1979) and Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984) , in a dynamic model involving heterogeneous agents and financial constraints as in Woodford (1986) and Grandmont et al. (1998) . Effort varies continuously while there is unemployment insurance funded out of taxation of labor incomes. Increasing unemployment insurance is beneficial to employment along the deterministic stationary state, and can even in some cases lead to a Pareto welfare improvement for all agents, through general equilibrium effects, by generating higher individual real labour incomes, hence larger consumptions of employed and unemployed workers, and thus higher production. In contrast, the local (in)determinacy properties of the stationary state are opposite to those obtained in the competitive specification of the model: local determinacy (indeterminacy) occurs for elasticities of capital-efficient labor substitution lower (larger) than a quite small bound. Increasing unemployment insurance is more likely to lead to local indeterminacy and, therefore, to generate dynamic inefficiencies due to the corresponding expectations coordination failures.     

地理距离、集聚外部性与劳动生产率——基于城市数据的空间面板计量分析

 本文采用2003-2009年中国城市面板数据实证检验了地理距离、集聚外部性与城市劳动生产率的关系。结果表明：在控制了产业结构、交通和通讯基础设施等影响因素后,一个城市的劳均资本存量、经济密度和相对专业化水平对劳动生产率有着显著的正向影响。同时,邻近城市的经济绩效存在明显的空间依赖性,城市间的溢出效应在170公里范围内表现得最为显著,此后明显减弱,至280公里以外几乎消失。     

Does Education Still Pay Off in Rural China： Revisit the Impact of Education on Off-farm Employment and Wages

The present study considers how education affects off-farm job participation and wages. We use a nationally representative dataset from a survey conducted in 5 provinces, 101 villages and 808 households by the authors in early 2005. The empirical results show that educational attainment, skill training and years of experience of rural residents have positive, statistically significant effects on off-farm employment. The average return to a year of education is 7percent, which is higher than those observed in previous studies. We also find the return to an additional year of schooling to be higher for post-junior high schooling than for junior high and below schooling： 11.8 versus 3.2 percent. We conclude that not only does education still pays off in rural China, but also the rate of return to education is increasing over time.     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

New Evidence on the Gains from Trade

We summarize the evidence on the gains from trade in monopolistic competition models, arising from three sources: (i) price reductions due to increasing returns to scale; (ii) increased product variety available to consumers; (iii) self-selection of firms with only the most efficient firms surviving after trade liberalization. There is little direct evidence to support the first source of gains from trade, though some indirect evidence from the European Union. The second and third sources of gains from trade find strong empirical support from studies from various countries, relying on new models and new empirical methods. JEL no. F10, F12, F15     

消费升级对劳动生产率的影响研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

本文从促进"消费-生产"经济循环更加顺畅的角度出发,使用中国1992-2017年的数据,运用VAR模型研究中国消费升级对劳动生产率的影响效应。研究结果显示:消费升级对劳动生产率存在显著且稳健的促进效应;农村的消费升级对劳动生产率的带动作用暂时要弱于城市,但未来会强于城市。由此提出建议:持续推动消费升级,以消费升级带动劳动生产率的提升;刺激农村居民消费升级,助力脱贫攻坚工作。     

中国农村地区教育私人收益率低的制度归因

与国际标准模型相比,中国农村教育私人收益率仍然偏低。转轨阶段双重分割的社会结构扭曲了劳动力的价格、日益凋敝的农村和农业以及城市偏向的教育投资政策增加了农村私人教育成本,抑制了农村教育私人收益率的提高。由此导致的人力资本投资不足是农民在既定制度约束下理性选择的结果。     

Is the Dutch consumer a true ricardian?

Summary In this paper the intertemporal optimization approach is adopted in order to estimate an empirical version of Blanchard's (1985) overlapping generations model. The observed sluggishness in consumption is incorporated into the model by recognizing both durability and habit formation as relevant determinants of total consumption. The model is estimated using quarterly data for The Netherlands from 1969:I to 1990:IV. The empirical estimates suggest that the status of the Dutch consumer as a true Ricardian is unambiguously rejected. The results furthermore suggest that this rejection is due to the existence of both liquidity constraints and finite planning horizons.Comments by Peter Broer, Jeroen Kremers, Debora Molenaar, Rick van der Ploeg, Frans Spinnewyn, Casper de Vries, Ed Westerhout and two anonymous referees are very much appreciated. Elbert Dijkgraaf has provided invaluable research assistance. We also thank participants of the OCFEB workshop and the CES seminar at the K.U. Leuven for their comments.     

制造业劳动生产率变动、能源资本及消费结构调整能否提升国际竞争力力

以影响制造业国际竞争力因素为视角,对制造业劳动生产率、能源资本和能源消费结构的历史变动情况进行时序分析,选用显性对比优度指数辨析制造业国际竞争力的提升态势。在此基础上,构建VAR模型检验1997-2012年期间制造业劳动生产率、能源资本、煤炭消费和电力消费与国际竞争力之间的协整性,并采用广义脉冲响应、预测方差分解法对各变量之间的动态均衡关系进行实证分析。结果表明,逐步提高以电力为代表的清洁能源比例可有助于制造业国际竞争力的提升,但目前清洁能源对高排放能源的替代效率依然过低;能源价格的波动影响了制造业国际竞争力过程中的稳定性;而劳动生产率过低是抑制其国际竞争力提升的重要瓶颈。     

个性特征、劳动契约与员工劳动关系满意度--基于广州市花都区部分员工的问卷调查分析

基于广州市花都区部分企业员工的调查数据,通过探索性因子分析及验证性因子分析发现,员工劳动关系满意度由工资福利、工作特性与氛围和社会环境与服务三个维度构成。签订短期劳动契约的员工对工资福利的满意度最高,签订中长期劳动契约的员工对工作特性与氛围、社会环境与服务的满意度最高。年龄越大,其劳动关系满意度越高;劳动者工作转换次数与其劳动关系满意度呈负相关。由此,应该积极推进劳动契约全覆盖并鼓励企业与员工签订中长期劳动契约;严格工资管理,维护职工权益;强化职业认同,减少员工工作转换频率。     

消费拉动经济增长的前景--基于消费-人力资本-增长的途径分析

消费能否拉动经济增长还存在比较大的争议,重要原因在于消费拉动经济增长的机理尚不清楚。基于对消费—增长不同观点的述评,构建了消费—人力资本—增长的理论模型,即消费是维系劳动力简单生产、实现劳动力再生产、促进劳动人力资本积累的基本途径;消费带来的人力资本积累直接促进了经济增长。在这一传导机制的基础之上,利用黄金储蓄率方法对我国潜在消费规模进行初步估算,估算消费释放有可能带来的增长效应,并就消费拉动经济增长提出相关建议。     

关于农村消费排斥的探讨

农村消费排斥是一个不可忽视的问题,当前农村消费排斥主要有收入排斥、社会保障排斥、消费环境排斥、金融排斥、消费结构排斥和消费观念排斥等六大维度。破解农村消费排斥,要以制度创新为先导,促进农民增收为中心环节,改善消费环境,更新农民陈旧的消费观念,发展农村的金融市场。