不完全契约视角下物流企业安全信息披露的博弈分析

从不完全契约理论角度,重点讨论物流安全信息披露在实现物流服务购买者对物流安全信任中的重要作用,通过建立社会、政府或第三方组织与企业之间的博弈模型,建立服务提供方与服务需求方的信息博弈模型寻找动态均衡路径。分析加强物流安全信息披露的必要性及优质物流服务企业主动披露安全信息愈多获利愈多,且愈得到市场信任,并提出政策建议以引导物流服务市场的良性循环发展。     

食品安全信息披露的博弈分析

食品质量安全信息披露不足,导致消费者难以分辨食品的安全性,不能对市场中的食品产生信任。本文建立消费者与生产者的信号博弈模型并找寻了动态均衡路径,分析认为:食品生产企业要获得消费者信任并实现与低质量企业完全分离,必须披露更多的质量安全信息,同时高质量企业披露安全信息对企业有利。通过比较国外为获得消费者信任而加强食品安全信息披露的情况,指出现阶段国内食品安全信息披露的不足,提出引导高质量企业进行更多信息披露、加强信息沟通交流和落实信息披露机制的建议。     

区块链技术与中小企业物流金融耦合性分析

运用区块链技术,从企业征信、风险机制两个方面研究区块链赋能创新的可行性,对中小企业物流金融进行创新研究。首先,构建信号传递博弈模型对直接信任中的信息披露机制进行阐释分析,探究区块链的智能信任合约在解决物流金融主体间信息不对称问题时的能动性;其次,根据博弈模型探究区块链技术与中小企业物流金融的耦合机理;最后,指出区块链技术与物流金融业务功能耦合与技术耦合可有效推动中小企业物流金融业务的进展。     

基于信息不对称的制造型企业与第三方服务商合作博弈分析

基于信息经济学的委托-代理理论,在分析制造型企业、第三方物流与第三方采购三方合作主体之间博弈关系的基础上,建立了制造型企业和第三方服务提供商三方合作主体之间的行为博弈模型,分析了博弈混合策略纳什均衡解。最后根据模型结果,从建立完善的建设管理制度、激励机制与约束机制,建立信息共享平台等方面,提出了规范合作主体行为的具体对策。     

基于信息不对称的制造型企业与第三方服务商合作博弈分析

基于信息经济学的委托-代理理论,在分析制造型企业、第三方物流与第三方采购三方合作主体之间博弈关系的基础上,建立了制造型企业和第三方服务提供商三方合作主体之间的行为博弈模型,分析了博弈混合策略纳什均衡解。最后根据模型结果,从建立完善的建设管理制度、激励机制与约束机制,建立信息共享平台等方面,提出了规范合作主体行为的具体对策。     

三方博弈下对环境信息披露的研究

立足于企业、政府和社会审计三方关系,以股东与管理者之间达成的受托责任关系为基础,另辟蹊径,创新性地构建三方利益相关者之间的博弈模型,并通过此模型的辅助具体阐述在相互机制下,企业、政府及环境审计机构对企业环境信息披露的影响因素。研究表明:企业选择自主披露、政府强化监管、社会独立审计,在三者之间的协同作用下,能够从企业整体推进,提升其环境信息披露信度指标。基于研究结果,结合企业自身经营状况,从不同市场参与者角度出发,对影响我国企业环境信息披露提出相应解决对策,促使企业发布的环境报告能从整体上满足各方面信息使用者的要求,达到各市场参与者在博弈中均衡发展的目标,实现社会、企业综合效益最大化。     

基于演化博弈论的物流企业应对谣言危机策略研究

在社交网络上传播的信息中,难免会有一些危及企业生存和发展的谣言,严重损害企业形象和声誉,削弱了消费者信任,给企业危机公关带来极大挑战。企业遭遇谣言危机后,如何有效辟谣等问题很值得研究。文章考虑网民和物流企业的博弈策略基础上,建立辟谣信息传播模型,并对演化博弈及谣言和辟谣信息传播过程进行了稳定性分析。结果表明:物流企业积极辟谣所带来的经济效益可以降低谣言传播者的数量;网络用户和物流企业的博弈策略在谣言和辟谣信息传播过程中相互影响,物流企业的辟谣强度越大,网络用户策略发生波动。     

博弈论视角下第三方物流企业金融信用管理

近年来,物流金融作为一种新兴产业,具有解决中小企业融资难、开拓银行新业务、提高物流企业利润率的作用,因而得到了快速发展。第三方物流作为连接银行与融资企业的桥梁,其信用是保证整个交易顺利进行的保证。因此,对第三方物流的金融信用进行研究,将对物流金融的发展起到重要作用。本文对物流金融信用风险以及第三方物流企业面临的风险进行分析,以信息不对称为假设条件,构建了融资企业、物流企业和银行三方动态博弈模型。通过对博弈模型的分析,得出了以第三方物流企业金融信用为基础,有效地防止信用风险发生的条件;从第三方物流企业内在管理因素和外在环境因素两个方面建立金融信用评价体系,从而降低信用风险发生几率的结论。     

基于Stackelberg均衡的第三方物流分包质量合同模型

如何管理、控制分包商的运作质量,使之符合第三方物流服务需求方的质量标准,本文在AlfredssonM构建的第三方物流提供者与分包商之间的Nash均衡模型的基础上,从第三方物流提供者与分包商的决策行为出发,提出了基于stackelberg均衡的第三方物流服务分包质量合同模型,并比较了第三方物流提供者和分包商对Nash均衡博弈结构和stackelberg博弈结构的决策取向。     

跨境电子商务服务外包的信任保障机制及对策研究——基于博弈论视角

随着跨境电子商务快速发展,服务外包在跨境电子商务中的作用愈发凸显.因此,关于跨境电子商务中服务外包的信任保障机制亟待探讨.本文以博弈论为基础,首先建立了跨境电子商务服务外包中委托商与外包商之间的基本信任博弈模型;其次,基于博弈双方的"囚徒困境",分别提出了一次交易环境下的抵押信任保障机制以及重复交易环境下的信任保障机制.本文旨在通过对信任保障机制的分析,为跨境电商务企业在服务外包过程中提供借鉴意义.     

Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.     

A model for predicting determinants factors for NEETs rates: Support for the decision-makers

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determining factors of the high levels of NEETs both in EU member states and in partner countries, to support policy steering and increase socio-economic cohesion. The use of longitudinal data (2005–2020) from Eurostat and World Bank databases and selected and the testing of a number of 19 factors likely to influence the rate of NEETs show us that the effectiveness of public policy solutions focused on this category of population increases when complex factors and not singular elements are targeted. From a methodological point of view, we will use MARS models and fixed effects panel models. To account for countries’ heterogeneity, these models are applied to homogeneous groups of countries, identified through cluster analysis. Social cohesion and sustainability measures for policy steering have higher chances if the action of the responsible institutions targets both meso and macro levels, if it acts not only on a factor but also on the causes that favor its manifestation. Our analysis demonstrated that the measures aimed at increasing the chances of NEETs in order to facilitate their access to education, the labor market, and social inclusion must be coordinated with those of support for combating poverty and any type of exclusion, the support given to employers (subsidizing jobs, for example), the family and the community to which the young person belongs or local authorities. Also, the research results show us that there are more common elements between countries when we analyze the factors likely to increase the rate of NEETs than when we focus on their analysis by geographical criteria, based on EU membership status or EU partner status, etc.     

“集约”创造新的空间

去年以来，党中央和国务院从民族的长远利益出发，从经济可持续发展和构建和谐社会出发，十分明确地提出了坚守18亿亩耕地的红线不能突破的目标要求，并作了一系列重大部署。     

Techniques for defining geographic boundaries for health regions

Many federal and state programs require the geographic partitioning of states into regions for health services planning, monitoring, and/or administration. A common consideration for such programs is that region boundaries should be drawn so as to maximize the proportion of the state's population that receives health care services in its region of residence. Defining region boundaries thus may be viewed as a problem of partitioning a set of N small areal units (e.g. counties) into M subsets (regions) so as to minimize interactions (patient flow) among subsets. This paper describes three algorithms for region design and compares them in terms of computer-processing efficiency and solution value based on results from a number of test cases. Application of two of the algorithms, one based on the greedy heuristic and the other incorporating a max-flow/min-cut procedure, to a problem of dividing a metropolitan region into separate service areas for clusters of hospitals is also described.     

人才战没有国界

2003年12月19日至20日,中共中央、国务院在北京召开全国人才工作会议.中共中央总书记、国家主席胡锦涛在会上发表重要讲话. 他强调,实施人才强国战略,是抓住和用好重要战略机遇期、应对日益激烈的国际竞争的必然要求,是全面建设小康社会、开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的必然要求,是增强党的执政能力、巩固党的执政地位的必然要求.     

Going for Gold: Atlanta's Bid for Fame

This article explores the importance of image to the Atlanta Olympic Games of 1996. It suggests that the event must be seen as an example of the use of the propagation of selected images designed to boost the standing of the city in an increasingly competitive interurban environment. The intersection of major sporting spectacles, big business and vastly increased television coverage provides an important new medium through which boosterists can put their city on the world map. However, as the Atlanta case reveals, the ‘semiotics of the successful city‘ involves a highly ideological construction which often presents urban areas as conflict‐free zones. In Atlanta, potentially negative images were removed both physically and symbolically from the urban landscape, while the actual experience of the Games suggested that the city had some way to go in material terms to match its often hyperbolic self‐promotion. The article suggests that the staging of events such as the Olympics is a necessarily high‐risk venture for cities, one that, as in the case of Atlanta, may not have been ultimately worth the effort. Cet article examine l'importance de l'image dans le cadre des Jeux Olympiques d'Atlanta de 1996. Il propose de considérer l'événement comme un exemple de la diffusion d'images sélectionnées, conçues et utilisées afin de promouvoir la réputation de la ville dans un contexte interurbain de plus en plus concurrentiel. L'intersection entre des spectacles sportifs exceptionnels, de grandes entreprises et une couverture télévisuelle considérablement étendue constitue un moyen novateur grâce auquel les promoteurs de cette dynamique peuvent positionner leur ville sur la carte du monde. Cependant, comme le montre le cas d'Atlanta, la ‘sémiotique d'une ville gagnante’ implique une construction idéologique très forte qui présente souvent les zones urbaines comme des espaces non conflictuels. À Atlanta, les images à potentiel négatif ont étééliminées à la fois physiquement et symboliquement du paysage urbain, tandis que les Jeux eux‐mêmes laissaient à penser que la ville devait progresser sur le plan matériel si elle voulait correspondre à son auto‐promotion souvent hyperbolique. L'article suggère que la mise en scène d'événements tels que les Jeux Olympiques est une opération nécessairement très risquée pour des villes, opération qui, à l'instar de l'expérience d'Atlanta, peut finalement ne pas justifier les efforts réalisés.     

基于决策有用性的财务报告方式选择

决策有用性是会计信息披露的目标,而决策有用的前提是会计信息应具有可靠性和相关性。可靠性和相关性犹如鱼和熊掌一样,往往不可兼得。以信息观或计量观为基础的财务报告方式在满足可靠性和相关性的程度上存在着差异。文章从财务报告的信息观和计量观的角度,分析了财务报告方式选择的条件,并提出了提高会计信息有用性的几点建议。     

Distribution-free Approximate Methods for Constructing Confidence Intervals for Quantiles

Quantile estimation is important for a wide range of applications. While point estimates based on one or two order statistics are common, constructing confidence intervals around them, however, is a more difficult problem. This paper has two goals. First, it surveys the numerous distribution-free methods for constructing approximate confidence intervals for quantiles. These techniques can be divided roughly into four categories: using a pivotal quantity, resampling, interpolation, and empirical likelihood methods. Second, a method based on the pivotal quantity that has received limited attention in the past is extended. Comprehensive simulation studies are used to compare performance across methods. The proposed method is simple and performs similarly to linear interpolation methods and a smoothed empirical likelihood method. While the proposed method has slightly wider interval widths, it can be calculated for more extreme quantiles even when there are few observations.     

Change point test for tail index for dependent data

To test for the constancy of tail index, Quintos et al. (Rev Econ Stud 68:633–663, 2001) proposed three types of change point tests for independent and ARCH type sequences. In this paper, we demonstrate that their tests can be successfully extended to a large class of dependent stationary sequences. Further, we designate a time-reverse version of those tests since the original tests produce very low powers in case the tail of distribution gets thinner. A simulation study is implemented for illustration.