Demand for electric vehicles in hybrid households: an exploratory analysis

Previous studies of the potential market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from different research streams have failed to converge on a single, robust estimate. What these previous research streams share are untested or implausible assumptions about consumer response to new transportation technology. We frame the BEV purchase decision in terms of a household's entire stock of vehicles, car purchase behavior and travel behavior. Within this framework, households which own both electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles are called ‘hybrid households’. Because nearly all consumers are unfamiliar with the characteristics of BEVs, we designed an interactive interview based on week-long travel diaries, which we call Purchase Intentions and Range Estimation Games (PIREG) to explore hypothetical hybrid household vehicle use. Our primary finding is that consumers' perceived driving range needs are substantially lower than previous hypothetical stated preference studies conclude. We find evidence of a viable market for BEVs with 60 to 100 miles driving range.     

An analysis of dual-command operations in common warehouse designs

In a warehouse that uses dual-command operations, workers travel loaded from the pickup and deposit (P&D) point first to a location to store a pallet, then to a second location from which they pick a pallet and return to the P&D point. We develop expected travel distance expressions for such operations and use them to analyze three common warehouse designs. Our results indicate that the best of the three is – in our experience – the one least commonly found in practice. We also show that the optimal placement of a “middle cross aisle” in the most common design is, in fact, not in the middle.     

An analysis of demand uncertainty in the hotel market

This study proposes a two-step approach to investigate the impact of certain environmental variables on demand uncertainty within the hotel sector. Adopting a simultaneous-equation model and using the operation data of international tourist hotels in Taiwan, this study shows that chained hotels face less demand uncertainty than independent hotels. Additionally, hotels that are more distant from the airport or located in metropolitan areas face a significantly higher degree of demand uncertainty.     

An analysis of the determinants of air traffic volume for European metropolitan areas

This paper examines the determinants of air traffic volume in the major European urban regions, highlighting those that depend on the metropolitan features of cities. We used homogeneous urban and airline data that make international comparisons possible. We found that GDP, the level of economic decision-power, tourism functions, and the distance from a major air market account for more than two-thirds of the variation in air service. This seems to indicate that air service remains profoundly rooted in the metropolitan features of urban regions (notably size and decision-power), even if low-cost airlines are probably less linked to the latter because they partly focus on niche markets and regional airports. Much of the remainder is probably attributable to the specificities of the urban economy, to actors’ strategies and to competition from high-speed trains.     

An analysis of air mass effects on rail ridership in three US cities

This paper examines whether daily weather affects ridership in urban transportation systems. When examining human–weather relationships, it is often advantageous to examine air masses, which take into account the entire parcel of air over a region. Spatial synoptic classification characterizes air masses based upon numerous meteorological variables at a given location. Thus, rather than examining temperature or precipitation individually, here we compare daily ridership to synoptic air mass classifications for three urban rail systems: Chicago Transit Authority (CTA), Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), and the Hudson–Bergen light-rail line in northern New Jersey. Air masses are found to have a significant impact on daily rail ridership, with usage typically increasing on dry, comfortable days and decreasing on moist, cool ones, particularly on weekends. Although the comfort of a particular air mass changes throughout the year, seasonality is not a significant factor with respect to the air mass–ridership relationship. The results of this study can benefit rail system managers who must predict daily ridership or in the development of cost-benefit analyses for station improvements.     

Welfare calculations in discrete choice settings: An exploratory analysis of error term correlation with finite populations

A difference in logsum terms (also known as inclusive values) is becoming a standard practice for anticipating the welfare impacts of transport policy when choice alternatives are discrete and behavior is (assumed to be) random-utility maximizing. However, this calculation is only an approximation when the population under study is finite. This paper examines the effect of error term correlations in such welfare analyses with finite samples, recognizing that individual preferences and unobserved attributes influencing choice are unlikely to change much, if at all, across scenarios or across alternatives. Such measures appear reasonably robust to deviations in assumptions of correlation. Nevertheless, we identify cases when the synthetic population samples need to be quite large for the average logsum to be realized. Another finding in these results is the substantial variation that emerges across synthetic populations, suggesting that policies that appear welfare-improving (when evaluated with average welfare formulations) may well be welfare-reducing (or vice versa) for a wide variety of actual, finite populations.     

Cost convergence in the US airline industry: An analysis of unit costs 1995–2006

Recent changes in the strategies of US airlines have led to a convergence of unit costs between the network legacy carriers and low-cost carriers. We develop a methodology for breaking down operating cost data reported by the airlines and argue that certain cost categories must be excluded to make a valid comparison between the carrier groups. We find significant evidence of convergence in unit costs excluding fuel and transport-related expenses, and labor unit costs in particular. While network legacy carriers have improved cost efficiency through dramatic labor cost reductions and longer stage length flying, low-cost carriers labor unit costs continue to increase as these former new entrant airlines mature.     

An exploratory analysis of the effect of numbers of choice sets in designed choice experiments: an airline choice application

Stated choice (SC) experiments are increasingly adopted as the empirical source of information on how individuals respond to current and potential travel contexts. The accumulated experience with SC data has been heavily conditioned on analyst prejudices about the acceptable complexity of the data collection instrument, especially the number of profiles (or treatments) given to each sampled individual (and the number of attributes and alternatives to be processed). It is not uncommon for analysts to impose very stringent limitations on the complexity of an SC experiment. A review of the literature suggests that very little is known about the basis for rejecting complex designs or accepting simple designs. In this paper, we develop a complex design as the basis for an SC study, producing a fractional factorial of 32 rows. However, we then truncate the fraction by administering 4, 8, 16, 24 and 32 profiles to a sample of individuals in Australia and New Zealand faced with the decision to fly (or not to fly) between Australia and New Zealand by alternative airlines and fare regimes. Statistical comparisons of elasticities (an appropriate behavioural basis for comparisons) suggest that the empirical gains within the context of a linear specification of the utility expression associated with each alternative in a discrete choice model may be quite marginal.     

既有铁路是确定西宁线技术站分布的重要因素

从既有铁路对西宁线分流量的大小和构成、技术站分布、技术站重要性的影响三个方面,论证既有铁路是确定西宁线技术站分布的重要因素,同时,对西宁线上新建信阳北区段站和东葛编组站有关问题作了分析。     

The regionalization of rail transport in France. An analysis of the interplay between actors (from the late 1990s through the 2000s)

In France, owing to the railway regionalization process, regional “governments” are finding themselves increasingly involved in transport policy-making. Based on a multidisciplinary comparative study conducted in six French regions, this paper aims to analyze the ways in which regional rail policies are constructed by examining, in particular, the way they are generated as a result of interactions between different institutional actors. These interactions are linked to tensions in three main areas: the financing of transport investments, the financing and nature of rail services and regional governance. We examine these tensions by referring to three configurations of actors: the first includes the Regions and the State, the second, the Regions and the rail actors, and the third, the Regions and other local authorities. Finally, we discuss our findings, emphasizing what they teach us about the regionalization process in France.     

Searching for policy priorities in the formulation of a freight transport strategy: a canonical correlation analysis of freight industry attitudes

An efficient and effective freight transport strategy can be aided by early professional contributions from key stakeholders. One broad group who have historically been given limited opportunity to influence the drafting of a freight strategy, are commercial road users and shippers who manufacture and distribute goods. Utilising a data set collected in Australia in 1996 from a sample of organisations involved directly and indirectly in road freight transportation, views were sought on road infrastructure changes, new road infrastructure, non-road infrastructure needs and transport policies. An optimal scaling approach using non-linear canonical correlation is implemented to search for structural relationships between the underlying policy and infrastructure dimensions and the various industry categories. This framework provides a powerful mechanism for identifying differences among stakeholders in terms of their support for or opposition to specific policies. Results reveal the considerable differences in attitudes associated with the component parts of the freight industry.     

南水北调:十堰经济发展的重要机遇

本文通过分析丹江口水利枢纽建设对十堰市经济发展的影响 ,探讨南水北调工程对十堰经济发展提供的机遇。