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TRIZ原理在产品技术成熟度预测中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
准确地进行产品的技术成熟度预测是企业制定产品战略的关键,但传统的预测方法存在主观性强、局限性大等缺点。TRIZ理论提供了一种新的技术预测方法,该方法与传统的预测方法相比,具有很大的优势。利用TRIZ技术预测方法评估了电动自行车技术系统的成熟度,并绘出技术成熟度预测曲线,为该产品的技术发展提供了有益的帮助。 相似文献
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目前技术成熟度评估普遍采用基于TRL的专家评估方法,该方法过度依赖专家知识,客观性不足,同时评估过程专家只能被动的逐条回答按照TRL设置的一系列问题,专家的评估思路和评估方向不能有效集中和明确,导致重复劳动,效率降低。本文提出了基于贴近度的技术成熟度评估方法,构建了多层次的评估参数结构,并结合实例介绍了技术成熟度基准状态层次数量的确定、基准状态的建立、基准状态特征参数的选择、专家评估数据处理等关键技术,在很大程度上解决了目前技术成熟度评估中的上述问题,并且对该方法的评估参数结构的开放性的特点的应用进行了展望。 相似文献
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一、技术价格技术价格即技术许可使用费,是指技术受方为获得合同技术的使用权、产品生产权和产品销售权而支付技术供方的费用。技术价格取决于技术的使用价值,即有效价值。技术的有效价值是该项技术在一定条件下所能产生的实际经济效益,通常表现为实际利润。因此,技术价格是供方在该技术项目中所分得的利润额,通常以供方分成率表示。 相似文献
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针对QFD中技术需求重要分析方法的不足,提出结合产品属性价值判断的产品技术需求重要度的集成质量屋方法,通过分析客户需求和产品的属性价值及产品属性之间的相关关系,运用产品价值属性判断和模糊综合评价的方法,将客户需求、市场竞争和产品质量需求特性的属性价值作为输入,构建质量屋,得出技术需求的重要度。该方法以对技术特性的现存量化数据分析取代了对技术需求的微观调查和判断,有效避免了微观调查数据模糊和难以处理,同时避免技术竞争数据中存在的主观性,而使产品属性权重的获取更加符合市场实际需求。最后以某电源开关企业客户需求分析为例,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。 相似文献
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Hyoung-joo LeeAuthor Vitae Byungun YoonAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(6):953-967
Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution. 相似文献
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Technology analysis is important for technology management areas such as research and development strategy and new product development. So many studies on technology analysis have been used across a diverse array of fields. Most of these were based on patent analysis, which analyses patent documents using text mining and statistics. The studies on conventional patent analyses constructed models consisting of various independent variables (technologies) and one dependent variable. But in reality, we have to consider a model that includes several dependent variables at the same time, because most technologies influence each other. In this paper, we propose a methodology for patent analysis that reflects the various response technologies simultaneously. We perform multivariate multiple regression modelling in order to efficiently conduct our technology analysis. To show how our modelling can be applied to realistic context, we carry out a case study using the patent documents related to three-dimensional printing technology. 相似文献
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低碳经济已经成为国际经济发展的新要求,因此,低碳技术开发日益受到世界各国的重视。太阳能技术是一种典型的低碳技术,我国经过10几年的发展,在太阳能领域取得了举世瞩目的成就,但因缺乏核心技术,目前面临着严峻的挑战。由于专利分析能客观地评价技术创新与合作水平,因此,为更好地促进我国太阳能技术的发展,基于专利分析法,对我国太阳能合作专利数据进行了分析。结果表明:我国太阳能技术的跨机构技术联系较少,"产学研"创新体系尚不成熟;政策扶持对于太阳能这种新兴低碳技术有较大的影响力;国内太阳能专利授权的技术领域主要集中在太阳能热利用,而在光伏领域的合作较少;太阳能合作专利存在较大的区域差异,应该进一步加强区域之间的技术合作和技术转移:应该加强国际技术合作。 相似文献
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通过对人工智能与车联网技术融合特征进行研究,能够精准识别车联网产业技术机会,为人工智能与车联网产业创新融合发展提供方向指引。选取2000-2019年相关专利数据,对人工智能与车联网领域技术融合进行识别与测度,采用Word2vec文本挖掘算法和社会网络分析法,揭示融合领域技术发展态势、技术主题关联模式、技术共现网络整体结构和节点功能演变情况。研究发现,融合过程呈现明显的阶段性特征,图像识别等相关算法是车联网领域最基础的人工智能算法,卷积神经网络等相关算法是最具潜力和发展前景的人工智能算法;智能交通平台是融合领域的重点发展方向;数据识别与数据表示技术在融合演变过程中的控制能力较强,无线通信网络技术发展受到相关人工智能技术发展水平的制约。基于研究结论,从研发方向、学科建设、平台搭建等方面提出启示和建议。 相似文献
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Misuk Lee Author Vitae Kwangduk Kim Author Vitae Youngsang Cho Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2010,77(5):796-802
This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent. 相似文献
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基于垂直产品差异的技术扩散分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
针对网络外部性和产品差异程度在新产品技术扩散中的作用,采用垂直产品差异分析框架和动态分析方法,分析了在双寡头垄断环境中新技术在不同条件下的扩散路径。研究结果表明:当产品差异-外部性系数(即网络外部性强度和产品差异程度之比)较小时,新技术总能够在市场中成功生存,特别是当消费者偏好差异不是很大时,新技术最终能够垄断整个市场;当该系数较大时,只有当新技术期初的网络规模超越了一定阀值后,它才能在市场中成功扩散。厂商可根据产品差异-外部性系数、期初网络规模铺设成本及新技术在市场中生存的期限等因素选择最佳的新技术扩散路径。 相似文献
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The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go through continuous evolution determined by the cumulative changes in the features of new product models. This is manifested in the diffusion of new product features and in the increasingly vague boundaries between different product generations. This article develops an approach for planning and forecasting technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features. This is achieved by isolating the phenomena underlying the evolution process, and formulating the process at the product category, product feature, and product model levels. The approach is derived from these formulations combining the primarily demand-driven product category diffusion and product unit replacement behaviour, and the more supply-driven product feature dissemination. The approach enables meaningful sensitivity analysis including the analysis of discontinuities. The developed approach is applied to characterise the evolution of an example product category of mobile handsets and to forecast the diffusion of mobile handset features using extensive longitudinal and cross-sectional data collected from Finland. In consequence, the process of technology product evolution and the phenomenon of product feature dissemination are suggested as extensions to research on product category diffusion and replacement. 相似文献
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面向技术战略的专利分析方法述评 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
专利信息反映了最新的技术发展情况与技术的具体细节,如何利用专利信息把握技术发展趋势以及潜在的商业化潜力,是目前企业技术战略研究的一个主要方面。本文探讨了专利分析方法在企业专利战略制定方面的应用,并提出了5个方面的分析框架。 相似文献