市场化条件下我国天然气定价原则浅议

我国天然气产品的生命周期处于市场成长期，在市场化条件下，作为可替代产品，我国天然气的定价将不可避免地采用竞争性定价原则，与可替代产品价格进行比较。天然气与可替代能源的比价原则是等热值等价。天然气按热值计量的经济性和科学性是不容忽视的，这也一定是我国未来天然气计量的发展趋势。天然气的热值随组分中各成分含量的不同有很大区别。因此，有必要根据天然气的组分计算其热值。     

我国天然气定价亟待研究的几个问题

未来几年内,我国将形成由单一气源、单一管线供气转变为多气源、多管线相互调剂、联网供气的局面,但现行定价规则不能充分适应联网供气的要求,有必要针对存在的问题研究天然气定价规则改革的方向。(1)研究资源量与消费量的关系问题,并确定我国的天然气定价规则。(2)研究制定价格改革的规划。一年内要平衡同一地区不同气源的价格水平,两年内要解决各大管线联网区域的市场定价问题,三年内要解决进口LNG(液化天然气)与管道气的价格矛盾等问题。(5)研究解决调峰气价与地区差价问题。(4)研究不同性质用户的天然气价差问题。(5)研究热值定价与用户交付条件。(6)研究如何通过确定合理的价格规则和价格水平,引导投资者按市场规律对资源进行配置。     

Access Pricing and Network Expansion in Natural Gas Markets

In this paper, we discuss different indirect approaches to cope with local market power in natural gas markets, in particular the extension of pipeline capacity as an instrument to combat nodal market power. One perspective, as expressed in Cremer and Laffont (Eur. Econ. Rev. 46:928–935, 2002) is that a discriminatory access price can correct for market failure and induce an increase in output. We argue, on the contrary, that the opposite holds: non-discriminatory access to the pipeline system will lead to overcapacity, and is thus the preferable strategy.     

国内外天然气价格与定价机制

国外天然气价格分井口价、城市门站价和终端用户价.它的变化与国际油价、资源丰度、经济发达程度及社会需求量密切相关.国外的天然气市场分为垄断性市场和竞争性市场两种类型,前者多采用成本加利润和市场净回值相结合的定价方式,后者根据竞争方式的不同,分别采用捆绑式售价和市场自由定价.总的来说,在世界范围内,天然气的定价政策主要仍采用垄断性定价,竞争性定价只在美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、阿根延、英国等实行,但目前许多国家在不断采取措施,放开市场,引入竞争.我国的天然气价格结构不合理,价格决定权在政府,既未考虑到国际市场上天然气价格的变化,又未与竞争燃料的市场价格挂钩,更未体现出天然气的热值、环保、便利等社会经济优势.为此,建议采取天然气生产、净化、输送、配送分开核算,单独计价收费,井口价格与竞争燃料的价格相关联,价格水平由市场供需调节,输配送服务费率按成本定价并由政府监管的定价方式.     

国外天然气市场发育规律

世界各国天然气工业发展的经验表明，天然气市场的发展基本都经历过三个阶段：启动期、发展期、成熟期。每一个阶段都具有一定的发展规律和共同的特征。进入发展期的标志往往是以发现大气田或建设长输管道为转折点，基础设施建设速度加快，天然气消费量迅速增长，天然气用途扩大，政府成立或指定专门部门来监管天然气工业，并制定全国统一的天然气法。经验表明，天然气资源是天然气市场发展的前提，完善的基础设施是天然气市场由启动走向发展和成熟的基础，目标市场的正确选择是天然气市场得以迅速发展的关键，天然气法是规范天然气市场行为的依据，政府的监管对天然气工业发展具有重要作用，天然气经营方式要适应市场的变化，即在市场供应紧缺的情况下，合同适用“照付不议”条款，在市场供应充足时应采用更灵活的条款。     

Effects of New Product Pricing on the Evolution of Market Structure

Conventional wisdom suggests that market structure is a determinant of marketing strategy; however, in the case of market pioneers, no market structure exists prior to product introduction. William Redmond examines strategy influences on market structure by assessing the effects of pioneer firms' initial price strategies (penetration pricing versus skim pricing) on the development of subsequent market concentration during the growth stage of the product life cycle. The article describes the analysis of longitudinal data, leading to the detection of significant differences in the evolution of concentration resulting from the different price strategies. Markets pioneered by skim pricers tended to have lower levels of concentration during the growth stage but rose to levels comparable to penetration markets by the onset of market maturity.     

从我国天然气发展现状谈价格改革

国外天然气市场的发育经历了三个时期：初期、发展期和成熟期。在初期和发展期的相当长时间里，都处于垄断经营过程，政府对天然气价格实行严格监管；在发展后期和成熟期，政府的监管逐步放松，进入完全的市场化经营。我国的天然气市场存在开发程度低、气源远离市场、管输极不发达及供应商单一、完善的法律法规等特征，处于产业发展初期或发展期的初级阶段。我国天然气定价机制改革也应根据这一特点，按照符合我国天然气发展现状，有利于天然气价格逐步市场化，有利于开发天然气新用户，同时又兼顾老用户承受能力的原则，逐步将以成本定价改为按可替代能源的比价定价。同时，对管输价格要有统一的测算方法，对配气费要加强监管。     

中国东北天然气市场分析

中国东北地区工业基础雄厚,利用天然气的潜力巨大。研究表明,该地区将成为东北亚天然气供气项目的理想市场。目前该地区天然气市场,主要由大庆、辽河、吉林和渤海等油田供气,2002年的供气量约为23亿立方米。预计在今后一段时间内,该地区的天然气产量仍将保持现有水平,商品气量也不会有太大变化。区内天然气主要用做油田附近化工企业的原料以及城市燃气,也用做发电和工业燃料。目前该地区虽然拥有较多的天然气利用的基础设施,4000多千米的天然气配气管网．以及经过改造后可以用来输送天然气的8000多千米的人工煤气管网,但由于缺乏天然气资源,现有管网的利用程度较低。     

我国天然气资源特点与市场开拓对策

我国天然气资源量、探明储量、剩余可采储量及产量的分布很不平衡，经济发达的东部地区，特别是东南部地区资源最少，而中部（四川和鄂尔多斯两盆地）和西部（主要是西北的塔里木、柴达木和准噶尔三盆地）地区资源相对集中，已发现天然气田的规模偏小，丰度偏低，这些是造成我国气价偏高的客观原因。同时，由于我国的天然气用户，特别是工业用户的价格承受能力偏低，造成天然气市场开拓难度大。建议将勘探开发的重点首先放在中部地区，并把勘探方向调整到靠近经济发达区和输气管线的高丰度大气田上，全方位努力降低成本，降低用户气价，加强上下游一体化的协调，实施贷税优惠，以政策引导市场的发展。     

亚洲:全球增长最快的天然气市场

印度Petronet LNG公司总经理S.C.Mathur在题为“印度天然气市场展望”的报告中指出,20世纪90年代以来,印度国内天然气产量逐年增加,主要增加量来自印度东海岸地区。预计今后25年印度天然气产量将有缓慢增加,但将远远赶不上需求的增加。今后印度     

天然气产业链下游市场的风险因素分析

本文在对天然气产业链下游市场风险等概念界定的基础上，对价格、季节、专用性资产、竞争性替代品和结构性风险因素导致的我国天然气产业链下游市场风险进行了详细分析，提出了三项防范风险的措施：(1)采取鼓励政策，保障和加快天然气产业链下游市场的发展；(2)从整体上推进天然气产业链市场竞争格局的形成，为天然气价格市场化奠定基础；(5)适当发展天然气发电，加强重点地区的市场开发，以迅速突破天然气产业链成长阶段初期的下游市场“瓶颈”。     

国际电力市场经验借鉴与我国电力市场发展解读

本文分析了国际电力市场的经验教训,评述了我国电力市场的现状,解读了我国电力市场的发展道路。     

电力市场中市场操纵力的成因及对策

在对目前我国发电侧电力市场类型进行判断的基础上,分析了电力市场中产生市场操纵力的原因,给出了市场操纵力的判别指标,提出了降低市场操纵力的措施,对于总结电力市场试点工作、设计未来的电力市场结构和市场规则具有普遍的指导意义。     

Tax Structure and Natural Vacancy Rates in the Commercial Real Estate Market

A number of studies have postulated that the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA 1981) was responsible for the dramatic overbuilding that occurred between 1981 and 1986, primarily because returns became less sensitive to "real" demand. While there has been much research on how equilibrium or "natural" vacancy rates in the real estate market are determined, beginning with Rosen and Smith's seminal paper in 1983, virtually none of this work has dealt with the impact of the tax environment. This study makes an initial attempt to answer this question with respect to equilibrium vacancies resulting from tenant (or owner) turnover. A formal model is developed that considers as an objective function the landlord's desire to maximize his/her after-tax equity returns in an environment of monopolistic competition in which individual projects face downward-sloping demand curves, owing to market conditions and a degree of heterogeneity among tenants in search costs or some other characteristic. The natural vacancy rate is shown not to depend directly upon the tax environment, but to depend indirectly upon it only to the extent that equilibrium market rents are lowered. The nature of the vacancy response depends critically upon the shape of the tenant demand response relationship upon its transition to a lower-rent region. This response is interactive with the degree of turnover and supply responsiveness within individual markets.     

Electricity Market Monitoring and the Economics of Regulation

Restructuring of wholesale electricity markets in the U.S. has brought new institutions known as Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) and Market Monitoring Institutions (MMI) that oversee competition in the energy markets that they operate. Both regulators and external observers have viewed MMIs as impartial observers intended to police these exchanges against the exercise of market power. The economics of regulation generally questions (but does not always reject) public interest interpretations on grounds that interest groups use politics and regulatory procedure to shape institutions to their advantage. MMIs in fact originated as a strategic move by California’s large utilities in connection with that state’s restructuring, intended to advantage them against competitors. The responses of MMIs to the economically efficient practice of “virtual bidding” in RTOs differed with the relative strengths of different interests in the governance of those organizations. As policy, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should re-examine its endorsement of MMIs and consider centralizing their functions.     

Pricing Efficiency in the Mortgage Market

Traditionally, the presence of serial correlation has been presumed to indicate an inefficient market for financial assets. As Latham [15] discusses, while the absence of serial correlation implies market efficiency, its mere presence does not imply inefficiency. Rather, market efficiency is a characteristic of security pricing. This study investigates pricing efficiency in the mortgage market. Using mortgage loan quotations for 343 institutions over a 71-week period, the empirical findings show that a wide variety of mortgage contracts are efficiently priced.     

Real-Time Pricing and Imperfect Competition in Electricity Markets*

We analyze the effects of the adoption of real-time pricing (RTP) of electricity when generating firms have market power. We find that an increase in consumers on RTP contracts decreases peak prices and increases off-peak prices, increases consumer surplus (both for switching and non-switching consumers) and welfare, while decreasing industry profits, with these effects being magnified by the extent of market power. We illustrate these results by calibrating our model to the New Zealand electricity market, and find that taking into account the market power of generating firms increases the efficiency gains from RTP adoption by 41%.     

刍议我国电力市场结构的分析方法

本文讨论了研究电力市场的若干手段和方法,引入了动态市场集中度的概念,提出了电力产品也能够差别化的观点,并初步论述了我国电力市场结构的大体框架。     

Effective and Equitable Adoption of Opt-In Residential Dynamic Electricity Pricing

Time-varying retail electricity pricing is very popular with economists, but has little support among regulators and consumers. I propose an opt-in time-varying residential pricing plan that would be equitable to both customers who opt in and those who don’t. Low-income households would, on average, see almost no change in their bills under time-varying pricing, while low-consumption households would see their bills decline somewhat and high-consumption households would see their bills rise. Most importantly, I show that the opt-in approach is unlikely to increase the flat rate charged to other customers by more than a few percentage points.     

对中国天然气市场开发的主要观点与政策建议--来自国际能源署(IEA)的报告

一、十个主要观点 (1)只有通过强劲的政策驱动,才有可能在未来10年使天然气在中国能源结构中的比例翻一番.这一挑战来自下游行业.在中国的大部分地方,天然气很难在发电领域与煤炭竞争.在地方配气方面,需做很大努力把由使用人工煤气改为使用天然气并扩大天然气配送网络、改善地方天然气配送公司的财务状况以及引进商业化营销和管理模式.