Husbands’ and wives’ risk preferences and improved maize adoption in Tanzania

Research on technology adoption typically assumes that the preferences of a single individual—the household head—determine household-level decisions. This study uses experimentally derived prospect theory-based risk preferences from couples in Tanzania to test whether men's and women's risk preferences, which often diverge, influence the adoption of improved maize varieties. We find that women's risk aversion and men's loss aversion are negatively correlated with improved variety use. The tendency of men to overweight small probabilities is negatively associated with adoption, whereas the tendency of women to do so is positively associated. These findings suggest that technology adoption research should look beyond the preferences of the household head, and that technology promoters should consider targeting both men and women in their education and dissemination efforts.     

林权流转价格及其影响因素分析

以林农拥有的活立木为研究对象,利用2007—2017年浙江省1546宗活立木流转样本,采用多元线性回归实证分析了是否在林权交易中心交易对活立木流转价格存在影响。结果表明:关键解释变量是否在林权交易中心进行交易对活立木流转价格具有显著的正向影响;流转面积、单位面积蓄积、区域虚拟变量、坡度等对流转价格都产生一定程度的影响;流转期限对流转价格的影响不大。因此,需要加强对林权交易中心的宣传,降低相关的交易成本,从而吸引更多的小规模林农参与交易。     

The welfare cost of Japanese rice policy with home‐good preference and an endogenous import price

The welfare cost of Japanese rice policy is estimated in the context of a large importing country, treating domestically produced rice and imported rice as heterogeneous goods and where there is home‐good preference. Not accounting for this preference will cause the gains from liberalisation to be overestimated. The period that is analysed is 2004–2007, departing from that in previous studies, which do not cover this period of greater deregulation. Rather than use border trade flow data as is customary, we acknowledge the actions of a state trading enterprise and construct and use a unique data set which should better gauge import penetration in the Japanese market for rice. Econometric estimation fails to reject the hypothesis that the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries prevents imports from affecting the price of domestically produced rice. In the absence of precisely estimated parameter values, simulations of liberalisation are conducted under a range of parameter values and the effects on social welfare calculated. The tariff equivalents of the government's support to rice producers are also estimated with values for the period in excess of 100 per cent.     

When China strikes: Quantifying Australian companies' stock price responses to China's trade restrictions

In early 2020, China, Australia's top export market, unilaterally imposed trade restrictions on Australian barley, beef, coal, cotton, timber, copper and wine. However, convincing evidence regarding the effects of such trade restrictions on firms is scarce. Leveraging data on daily stock returns from 20 listed Australian and 32 listed Chinese firms that produce the restricted commodities, we provide the first systematic analysis of the firm-level economic impacts of China's trade restrictions on Australian and Chinese firms. We find significant adverse effects on Australian firms' stock returns, leading to almost 20% loss within 10 trading days; however, most firms' stock returns immediately rebounded. In contrast, Chinese firms usually saw significant positive stock returns, leading to almost 30% gains, and the positive abnormal returns continuously increased within 10 trading days. Media coverage and trade dependence substantially impact Australian and Chinese firms' stock returns—industries with stronger trade dependence on China saw greater losses in Australian firms' stock returns. Our results suggest that trade reallocation and deflection are two effective mitigation mechanisms for Australian exporters facing China's trade restrictions.     

Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey

This study addresses the impact of exchange rate levels and uncertainty on bilateral agricultural trade between Turkey and 20 major trading partners, using panel cointegration analysis for annual data covering the period 1980–2005. Results show that (i) the exchange rate level is less robustly linked to trade volumes than is exchange rate uncertainty, (ii) exchange rate uncertainty is associated with smaller trade volumes in both directions, but more so for imports than for exports, and (iii) income growth in Turkey is associated with greater imports, just as income growth among trading partners is associated with greater exports. These findings provide some clues for understanding the recent patterns of Turkish agricultural trade, and suggest directions for future research.     

辽吉黑农产品供应链大数据平台构建研究

[目的]通过构建辽吉黑农产品供应链大数据平台,以期实现东北地区经济持续发展,整合辽吉黑农产品种植、生产、运输等分散主体,有效协调政府部门监管、企业加工和运输、消费者等之间的利益提供借鉴。[方法]文章分析辽吉黑农产品发展现状及以零散农户为中心、以中间商为中心、以龙头企业为中心、以农民合作社为中心的4种农产品供应链模式,剖析辽吉黑农产品供应链存在生产信息化水平落后、农产品物流技术滞后、农产品信息服务平台缺失等问题,构建辽吉黑农产品供应链大数据平台。[结果]辽吉黑农产品供应链大数据平台可实现4个功能:(1)通过建立省级或者大区域农产品信息平台,有助于实现农产品资源跨区域整合和流通,实现资源优化配置,有利于各参与者统筹规划,实现农产品资源互联互通和农产品信息共享;(2)突破传统单一的某个环节监管、某一链条监管,实现从田间到餐桌全链条监管;(3)从传统的提供数据供应、需求向整条链条上农产品供给数量、需求数量、加工企业、分销网络等数据信息归纳、处理和分析,从提供信息向提供决策服务转变;(4)从事后处理向事前预警、风险防控转变,极大提升了政府各职能部门的监管效率和监管力度。[结论]采用"互联网+"思路构建的农产品供应链大数据平台,可促进农产品的协调和增值效应,确保农产品供应链健康、安全、可持续发展。     

Are we overestimating the negative impact of higher food prices? Evidence from Ghana

Most studies of the welfare impact of higher food prices adopt Deaton's approach, based on the first‐order effect of prices changes using income and expenditure survey data. This paper explores the impact of higher maize and food prices in Ghana and considers the sensitivity of results to changes in several assumptions. If second‐order effects are included, incorporating household response to price changes, the welfare impact of food price increases is more positive, but only modestly so. However, if we assume that marketing margins are constant in real terms rather than proportional to prices, the welfare impact is substantially more positive. These findings highlight the need for more research on the behavior of marketing margins under volatile prices.     

A SIMULATION APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF STABILISATION POLICIES IN AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: A CASE STUDY*

Agricultural markets are very often susceptible to year-to-year fluctuations in price and output and it is generally agreed that it would be desirable to control these fluctuations by intelligent market support operations. In this paper we develop a simulation model to assess the efficacy of market support operations in the case of egg market in the U.K. during the period 1958-68. We argue that for this problem a simulation approach is more effective than either a geometric or an algebraic approach. On the basis of our analysis, we find that in the absence of the market support operations of the British Egg Marketing Board during the period 1958-68, the long-run average return to the egg producer would have been only marginally different from the actual but the instability of the market would have been substantially greater. We also found that because of the nature of the subsidy arrangements, there were severe limits to the Egg Board's capacity to increase producer price even in the short run in spite of the inelastic demand curve. More generally, we conclude that marketing Boards in situations similar to the Egg Board's should aim at keeping close to the long-run producer price rather than short-run profit maximisation.     

Notes on farm‐retail price transmission and marketing margin behavior

Perfect farm‐retail price transmission sometimes is taken to mean an elasticity of price transmission (EPT) equal to 1. We show that this definition is inconsistent with Gardner's (1975) model. We also show that the absolute marketing margin (defined as the difference between the retail price and farm price) responds differently to shifts in retail demand, input supply, and technical change in the marketers’ production function than does the relative marketing margin (defined as the ratio of the retail price to the farm price). The empirical implications of these results are discussed in some detail.     

The Heterogeneous Effects of Standards on Agricultural Trade Flows

This article uses a theory‐based translog gravity model to investigate the heterogeneous effects of food standards on aggregate agricultural trade. We revisit the ‘standards‐as‐barriers‐to‐trade’ debate with a distinctive twist. In contrast to existing works, we show that standards reduce trade but even more so for countries that trade smaller volumes. Our identification strategy exploits the within‐country variation in specific trade concerns. We confirm that stricter importer standards are indeed trade‐restrictive. However, the estimated trade cost elasticity varies depending on how intensively two countries trade. Specifically, it decreases in magnitude with an increasing import share of the exporter in the importing country's total imports. The reason is simple but intuitive; bigger trading partners find it more profitable to invest in meeting the costs of importer‐specific standards. This work is novel in showing that the standards–trade debate misses out on an important heterogeneity driven by existing import shares. Liberalising non‐tariff measures will favour smaller trading partners more than well‐established ones.     

基于籽棉交易价格分析的新疆棉花目标价格试点工作改进研究

[目的]已有研究对目标价格政策的分析具有较强的启发意义,但对籽棉交易价格方面的研究较少。文章通过实证数据分析影响籽棉交易价格的相关因素,试图找到植棉农户交易风险的重要变量。[方法]分区间统计新疆28个县市1 140份交易数据,使用分位数回归模型对整个数据样本进行解析,并采用bootstrap方法对籽棉交易价格进行分位数回归,进一步解释各因素对籽棉交易价格的影响。[结果](1)随着分位点的提高,籽棉交易数量对籽棉交易价格的影响程度呈现出先下降后上升的"U型"趋势,交易规模扩大对籽棉交易价格提升的作用较为明显;(2)在0.7分位点以前,有中介对籽棉交易价格的影响程度较为稳定;(3)随着分位点的提高,南疆对籽棉交易价格的影响程度越来越大;(4)在低分位点籽棉交易等级对籽棉交易价格的影响具有不确定性;(5)随着籽棉交易的进行,籽棉交易价格与籽棉交易时间呈现出显著的负相关关系。[结论]籽棉交易价格会因各种因素影响而发生变化,其中单个农户籽棉交易数量的提高会有利于单笔籽棉交易价格的提高,交易时间与籽棉交易价格具有明显负向关系;南北疆籽棉交易价格因地域不同而出现差别;棉花交易等级对籽棉交易价格形成具有显著影响,但同一长度不同等级籽棉交易价格基本一致;不同棉花交易主体对籽棉交易价格的形成具有较大影响。     

Pricing to market behaviour of India's high value agri‐food exporters: an empirical analysis of major destination markets

The pricing behaviour of India's high value agricultural and food exporters in their major destination markets is examined using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) model for noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behaviour. The analysis was undertaken in a context where India is showing high commodity concentration in agricultural trade. The econometric analysis employed is panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimation technique. The results indicated evidence of a greater degree of imperfect competition either through price discrimination across destinations or through imperfect exchange rate pass‐through. The analysis of exchange rate effects showed that the local currency price stabilization by the Indian exporters were more prominent than the amplification of exchange rates. The analysis of the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on export prices showed that in most cases the depreciation of Indian rupee had a greater impact than the appreciation. Moreover the results showed that the exchange rate pass‐through is sensitive to the kind of exchange rate index utilised. In our analysis we found that the commodity specific exchange rate better predicts the pricing to market behaviour in most cases.     

Seasonal labor constraints and intra-household dynamics in the female fields of southern Cameroon

African agricultural production is modeled as a sequential decision process, with men's labor first allotted to clearing, then women's labor allotted to harvesting. A switching regression is then used to measure the constraints due to clearing labor capacity and harvesting labor capacity. The import of men's clearing labor depends on the valuation of shadow wages. Output appears to be more frequently constrained by husband's clearing labor, and in this situation male labor appears under‐utilized. However, output is also significantly constrained by female harvest labor, although the findings imply that female labor is over‐utilized at this stage.     

Forty Years of Price Transmission Research in the Food Industry: Insights,Challenges and Prospects: Comment

Lloyd's review of the literature on food price transmission in the Journal of Agricultural Economics (2017) is incomplete in that it omits discussion of technical change and international trade. The purpose of this Comment is to explain why these topics are essential for a proper understanding of price transmission. As a by‐product of the discussion, I show that the pass‐through and pass‐back equations that serve as the basis for Lloyd's theoretical insights are more general than one might think based on Gardner's (American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1975) discussion of these equations.     

Estimation of trade elasticities in the presence of trade barriers, multinationals and imperfect competition

Recent research highlights the role that multinational trading companies may play in impeding price transmission. In markets characterised by imperfect competition, an estimate of the partial elasticity of demand may be of limited practical value if no account is taken of the reaction of competitors. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential for market structure to affect price transmission and trade elasticities, and challenge the presumption that only government intervention can impact upon price transmission, with examples supporting why theory would suggest otherwise.     

Effects of microcredit and other loans on female empowerment in Bangladesh: the borrower's gender influences intra‐household resource allocation

This article examines microcredit's effectiveness in empowering women borrowers in rural Bangladesh. It does so by examining how gender‐specific borrowing activities influence household expenditures which are either specifically of interest to men or women, and by examining the effects of all loans rather than only those provided by microcredit organizations. The article uses a quasi‐experimental design to identify the effects of borrowing by men and women by using an original combination of panel data and instrumental variables on subsamples of the surveyed population. It finds that the borrower's gender affects how households allocate their resources to different expenditure items and assets that are valued differently by men and women. In all, the findings suggest that providing greater credit access to women may improve their household bargaining positions.     

Did Futures Markets Stabilise US Grain Prices?

Though economists are divided over whether, in practice, futures markets reduce spot price volatility, observers of nascent nineteenth century US futures markets essentially praised the stabilising effects of this financial innovation. Indeed, such praise is understandable, particularly if, as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and others assert, “violent” spot price fluctuations were common prior to, but not after, the 1870s; the same decade that grain trade historians typically associate with the birth of the modern futures contract. And whereas these events may be unrelated, the claim is intriguing because it requires that nineteenth century futures prices fulfil their price discovery function, a property that many modern futures markets do not possess. This paper explores what role, if any, the advent of futures trading may have had on spot price volatility. I corroborate the CBOT's assertion regarding diminished spot price volatility around the 1870s and show that early futures prices did indeed fulfil their price discovery function. Moreover, I address two alternative hypotheses that relate the decline in spot price volatility to the Civil War. Ultimately, I maintain that the evolution of futures markets is the principal proximate reason why commodity spot price volatility diminished.     

Has Chinese Certified Emission Reduction trading reduced rural poverty in China?

Consolidating and expanding poverty alleviation while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions has become one of the main issues facing China. The Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) trading programme is an important supplementary mechanism to China's carbon trading market. Based on the data of 1782 counties in China from 2006 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences model, this study investigates the rural poverty reduction effect of CCER trading. We find that: (1) during the sample period, CCER trading has increased the per capita net income of rural residents by at least 2.5% or 187.5 RMB (about 27.8 USD or 39.3 AUD) per year. (2) The poverty reduction effect of CCER trading in poor counties is greater than that in nonpoor counties. (3) Some relevant heterogeneous effects are also measured. We find that CCER trading of hydropower projects has played a significant poverty reduction effect; the poverty reduction effect is further enhanced when the county has additional CCER projects; we also identify regional differences with CCER trading having a greater poverty reduction effect in the western and central regions. (4) Compared with the implementation of the CCER project, trading the emission reductions generated by the CCER project has brought more significant poverty reduction effects.     

How has microcredit supported agriculture? Evidence using panel data from Bangladesh

Improving agricultural productivity has received a greater attention in recent years amid concerns about rising food insecurity, population pressures, and climate change. Many believe that better access to institutional credit, spanning microcredit as well as commercial and agricultural banks, can help rural households smooth risks, and access inputs and other technology to modernize agriculture and improve farm/nonfarm linkages. We use recently augmented household panel data spanning over 20 years in Bangladesh to examine the effects of rural credit expansion (both microcredit and formal bank channels) on outcomes for agricultural households. We find that microcredit has benefited households with lower landownings, raising agricultural income from activities such as livestock rearing that require less land, as well as nonfarm income diversification for all households, but with the strongest effect for landless or near‐landless households. We do not find effects of microcredit on crop income, but do, however, find that reported supply‐side credit constraints significantly lower crop income. Borrowing by both men and women has contributed to nonfarm income growth for marginal farmers, but only men's borrowing has contributed to nonfarm income growth among higher landowning groups.     

The Olive Oil Sector Facing New International Market Challenges

Abstract

This article explores the new economic context in which international olive oil marketing strategies are framed. The underlying premises are that the growing liberalization of international trade is inducing an emergent globalization process in product trading, and that business strategies are increasingly influenced by a more demand-driven food chain. The first part discusses the macro-factors conditioning olive oil trade on a worldwide scale, surveying the main changes in market regulation schemes as well as in recent world product supply and demand trends. The second part addresses a series of microeconomic and organizational factors shaping business strategies with respect to product marketing, placing special emphasis on quality as a key factor for expansion into potential markets.