Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts

A probabilistic forecast is the estimated probability with which a future event will occur. One interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between the predicted probabilities and the actual outcome probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the past by grouping probability forecasts into discrete categories. We show here that we can do this without discrete groupings; the kernel estimators that we use produce efficiency gains and smooth estimated curves relating the predicted and actual probabilities. We use such estimates to evaluate the empirical evidence on the calibration error in a number of economic applications, including the prediction of recessions and inflation, using both forecasts made and stored in real time and pseudo-forecasts made using the data vintage available at the forecast date. The outcomes are evaluated using both first-release outcome measures and subsequent revised data. We find substantial evidence of incorrect calibration in professional forecasts of recessions and inflation from the SPF, as well as in real-time inflation forecasts from a variety of output gap models.     

Six sporting worlds. A cluster analysis of sports participation in the EU-25

The aim of this study was to identify clusters of European nations grouped by sports participation outcomes (organizational context and intensity of sports participation), in order to provide sensible groupings for international comparisons. Sports participation data for the EU-25 were distracted from the 2004 Eurobarometer survey. Both a hierarchical as a K-means clustering method was used to identify groupings of countries that are homogeneous in terms of sports participation profiles. Six clusters of countries could be identified: (i) non to average fitness countries; (ii) active club countries; (iii) average non-organized countries; (iv) average school countries; (v) active multi-context countries; and (vi) very active countries. Considerable differences in sports participation profiles between European countries are made clearer when viewed across clusters of countries grouped by actual outcomes. This empirically derived taxonomy has advantages over ad hoc systems for comparing sports participation and for deciding which countries appear to have the most comparable participation profiles. Moreover, it shows that policy strategies to increase sports participation in European countries need a differentiated approach and have to take account for the fact that the provision and intensity of sport is at a quite different level in all six sporting clusters.     

A Method of Grouping Projects for Comparisons

Most methods currently available for grouping an agency fundedprojects are well suited for continuous data (e.g., Dalenius and Hodges Cum frule) but not for grouping a few projects based on their means. This is because these projectmeans form a set of discrete observations. So, applying Dalenius and Hodges Cum frule to such discrete observations generally does not help in forming as homogeneousgroups as one would desire. Seeking more homogeneous groups in practice is necessary becauseoften an administrator needs as accurate comparisons among projects as possible (e.g.,evaluation of project performances) to make correct decisions about continuation or administrationof agency funded projects. Therefore, in this paper an iterative procedure is given togroup projects in such a situation. To apply this procedure, the only requirement is that the variableused for stratification is not a categorical or a nominal variable. The iterative procedure isillustrated by three examples. As should be expected, the procedure yields a different and morehomogeneous set of strata than the one obtained by the Cum f rule. For administration ofprojects, to form as homogeneous a group of projects as possible is important and , therefore,it is advisable to use this procedure to achieve more homogeneous strata for the data at hand.     

The estimation of a family of measures of economic inequality

This paper shows that a broad class of measures of inequality (including those of Herfindahl and Theil) can be readily (and accurately) estimated from grouped data. The methods are similar to those developed earlier by the author for estimating the Gini index. The results are illustrated by estimating Thiel's index from tax data and show that the standard textbook grouping method of assuming that all incomes in any class are at the mid-point can lead to serious error in the resulting estimate of inequality.     

The concept of stable strategic time periods in strategic group research

This paper briefly reviews previous research on strategic groups and concludes that the concept needs further refinement. In particular, strategic grouping studies have typically ignored the influence of time on competitive strategy and have assumed homogeneity in strategic behavior over the time period researched. Therefore, a general analytical method is proposed in order to identify time periods of similarity in strategic behavior—so-called stable strategic time periods. It is argued that following the identification of stable strategic time periods meaningful strategic groupings of companies within industries can be derived and further analysis of the dynamics of strategic group shifts can be performed.     

基于聚类分析的协同学习小组分组方法

在协同学习概念基础上,研究并提出了基于聚类分析的两种协同学习小组分组方法。为此,首先阐述分组策略;然后给出聚类分析概念、变量选择和2种分组模式(即一次性分组与实时分组)。聚类分组的有效性分析表明,该分组方法是有效的,符合协同学习小组"组内异质,组间同质"要求。     

Approaches to the factory of the future. An empirical taxonomy

An empirical analysis of the patterns in which companies invest in advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) such as computer-aided design, computer-aided manufacturing, and flexible manufacturing systems is presented. Data for this analysis are gathered from 202 manufacturing plants chosen from industries generally considered to have relatively high investments in technology.Three general types of AMTs are identified from the literature: design, manufacturing, and administrative. Multiple item scales are developed to measure each type of AMT. These scales are shown to be reliable instruments, and are used to develop an empirical taxonomy which validates existing conceptual typologies of AMTs. A cluster analysis reveals four distinct groups of companies with respect to their approaches toward investing in AMTs. TRADITIONALISTS do not invest heavily in any of the three types of AMTs. GENERALISTS have moderate investments in each technology type. HIGH INVESTORS have the highest investment in each of the three technology types. The most interesting group may well be the DESIGNERS, which have low investments for manufacturing and administrative AMTs, but have the second highest investment in design-related AMTs.An analysis of the four technology groups reveals that while plants do differ in terms of plant size and integration, they do not differ significantly in terms of industry membership or performance. This suggests that successful firms can be found in each of the groups and that good strategies may be found that are consistent with each of these approaches. Therefore, the taxonomy is fairly robust, and further research must analyze companies within these groupings in order to identify the contingencies or other factors that may act in conjunction with technology to separate high and low performing firms. The data from our study clearly suggest that investments in technology alone are not a causal factor for performance improvement.     

Homogeneity pursuit in panel data models: Theory and application

This paper studies the estimation of a panel data model with latent structures where individuals can be classified into different groups with the slope parameters being homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups. To identify the unknown group structure of vector parameters, we design an algorithm called Panel‐CARDS. We show that it can identify the true group structure asymptotically and estimate the model parameters consistently at the same time. Simulations evaluate the performance and corroborate the asymptotic theory in several practical design settings. The empirical application reveals the heterogeneous grouping effect of income on democracy.     

Appropriate roles for statistical decision theory and hypothesis testing in model selection: An exposition

Statistical studies in the social sciences often analyze a cross section of communities that are assumed to be homogeneous for certain characteristics. However, the researcher might be interested in investigating the general behavior of all communities as well as particular differences between groups of communities that are spatially separated. This paper suggests, and empirically examines, a procedure which utilizes both statistical decision theory and hypothesis testing and enables us to determine the best model for estimating behavioral relationships for the full sample and for subgroups. The paper examines property crime occurrences in 94 New Jersey suburban communities of Philadelphia utilizing the full sample as well as subgroups within it. The purpose of grouping is to further understand the possible interjurisdictional mobility of urban criminals. The study suggests possible factors that induce urban criminals to commit crimes in the suburbs.     

Estimating house price appreciation: A comparison of methods

Several parametric and nonparametric methods have been advanced over the years for estimating house price appreciation. This paper compares five of these methods in terms of predictive accuracy, using data from Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The methods are evaluated on the basis of the mean squared prediction error and the mean absolute prediction error. A statistic developed by Diebold and Mariano is used to determine whether differences in prediction errors are statistically significant. We use the same statistic to determine the effect of sample size on the accuracy of the predictions. In general, parametric methods of estimation produce more accurate estimates of house price appreciation than nonparametric methods. And when the mean absolute prediction error is used as the criterion of accuracy, the repeat sales method produces the most accurate estimate among the parametric methods we tested. Finally, of the five methods we tested, the accuracy of the repeat sales method is least diminished by a reduction in sample size.     

Planned or Prioritized? Two Options in Managing the Implementation of Strategic Decisions*

ABSTRACT This paper presents findings from a study of 55 cases of decision implementation. The research identifies a number of features that characterize the way implementation is managed which appear to enhance the chance of success. Analysis reveals patterns in the data indicating that these features fall into two groupings, giving rise to two distinct approaches to implementation management. These are termed the Experience‐based approach and the Readiness‐based approach from the initial conditions which give rise to each. Although following either approach may enhance decision performance, the greatest success is associated with a dual approach. Implementations that follow neither are generally less successful. A theory of implementation management is postulated, comprising a Planned Option and a Prioritized Option.     

Hierarchies and Groups in DEA

Conventional applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA) presume the existence of a set of similar decision making units, wherein each unit is evaluated relative to other members of the set. Often, however, the DMUs fall naturally into groupings, giving rise first to the problem of how to view the groups themselves as DMUs, and second to the issue of how to deal with several different ratings for any given DMU when groupings can be formed in different ways. In the present paper we introduce the concept of hierarchical DEA, where efficiency can be viewed at various levels. We provide a means for adjusting the ratings of DMUs at one level to account for the ratings received by the groups (into which these DMUs fall) at a higher level. We also develop models for aggregating different ratings for a DMU arising from different possible groupings. An application of these models to a set of power plants is given.     

Professional Research on Minority Economic Problems and its Effect on Academic Hiring

A bstract . This study in the sociology of economics analyzes the probable effects of selected social and institutional variables on the academic hiring of economists. Authorship data on minority economic problems in 29 principal economic journals were related to data on the ranking of graduate programs in economics and to data on the ranking of economic journals. Formally, this is a problem in conditional probabilities, suggesting the use of transition matrices with elements P_ij. High ranking schools tend to be net Ph.D. producers, thus exporting their "surpluses", and perhaps ideas, to other institutions. Graduates of these schools, reflecting a homogeneous grouping, tend to publish in the high ranking economic journals. Examination of the relationship between the school that granted the author's Ph.D. and his academic employment reveals a picture of interinstitutional concentration and hierarchy. Through the hiring process, these social and institutional variables probably significantly influence the direction and pace of economic idea production.     

Non-homogeneous servers in emergency medical systems: Practical applications using the hypercube queueing model

In this paper, we study the effects of considering homogeneous versus non-homogeneous servers in applications of the hypercube queueing model. This is important since approximate methods available for solving the model for homogeneous servers are computationally much less time-consuming than the exact methods required for the non-homogeneous case. Illustrative examples are initially presented to show the degree to which using homogeneous versus non-homogeneous servers can differ. Then, two ambulance deployment applications dealing with Brazilian emergency medical systems, in a city and along a highway, are analyzed. The basic operational characteristics of non-homogeneous systems were compared to the respective predictions produced under the simplifying assumption of homogeneous servers. It was found that, even when the degree of non-homogeneity of the servers is not highly significant, homogeneity may lead to poor predictions of the actual operational characteristics of non-homogeneous systems.     

Some examples of classification and causal analysis

The aim of this essay is to point out how important a connection there is between the results of an analysis of the relations among variables (like that of a causal analysis) and a classification of subjects. The author presents two examples taken from research on electoral behavior in Italy: the first considers a case of typology derived from a causal scheme; in the second, the author analyzes the possibility of a classification of subjects based on the residual variable. The problem of a classification connected to a causal analysis becomes important, not only for the identification of all the subjects utilized in the research through “types,” but also for the grouping of more subjects into homogeneous groups in terms of the results of a causal analysis.     

县域城镇化问题的特异性与发展思路探究

县域城镇化是中国县域现代化建设中不可逾越的发展阶段.县域城镇化是伴随着县域工业化和第三产业的发展而发生的社会、经济结构的转换.本文在对县域城镇化的概念界定和现状分析之后,探讨了县域城镇化的发展路径,并选择重庆市有代表性的区、市(县级市)、县进行县域城镇化问题的实证分析,最后从改革户籍管理制度、建立土地合理流转机制、引导农民向城镇转移和建立稳定的社会保障体系等四个方面作了县域城镇化发展的政策设计.     

The Logit Model in Economics

This paper reviews aspects of the application of logit models in economics. We consider some economic models that lead to a simple or a multinomial logit specification. A detailed account is given of the possible specifications of the multinomial model. We stress the relationship between distributional assumptions and functional form assumptions. Some (mis)specification tests with individual data are discussed. Moreover, we present a new test. We also consider grouping of continuously recorded data, and the biases introduced by an inappropriate grouping.     

Estimation of a continuous-time dynamic demand system

A continuous-time dynamic model of consumers' demand, explicitly taking account of the roles of depreciation, interest rates, habits, and stocks, is estimated using recently developed techniques from discrete quarterly UK data on three broad commodity groupings. The results suggest that, whilst being a significant determinant of demand, the actual magnitude of the influence of changes in interest rates may be relatively small in the long run. The cross-price effects of durable goods are also found to be statistically significant, and symmetry of long-run compensated price responses is not rejected.     

Sustainable development of small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises in the European Union: A taxonomy of circular economy practices

This paper focuses on the implementation of circular economy (CE) practices in small‐ and medium‐sized firms in all 28 European Union (EU) countries. The analyses take into account the hierarchical nature of the collected data as firms are nested within EU countries, that is, the heterogeneity between different types of firms and countries according to practices and attitudes towards CE. The multilevel latent class model identifies groups of firms and groups of EU countries that are homogeneous in terms of CE, that is, how the homogeneous groups of small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) are distributed across the groups of EU countries. These results, together with the fact that firms with similar CE attitudes and practices have different demographic and business profiles across groups of countries, shed further light on the topic of green behavior in the EU with implications for businesses' environmental policies. Moreover, indications emerge that European policies favoring the implementation of CE practices should be targeted at least for subgroups of European countries, considering the different composition by typology of SMEs operating in their territories and that, at the same time, policies should be defined within each group of countries to account for the specific features of each of the four classes of SMEs.