Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets

This paper examines the long-term impact and short-term dynamics of macroeconomic variables on international housing prices. Since adequate housing market data are generally not available and usually of low frequency we apply a panel cointegration analysis consisting of 15 countries over a period of 30 years. Pooling the observations allows us to overcome the data restrictions which researchers face when testing long-term relationships among single real estate time series. This study does not only confirm results from previous studies, but also allows for a comparison of single country estimations in an integrated equilibrium framework. The empirical results indicate house prices to increase in the long-run by 0.6% in response to a 1% increase in economic activity while construction costs and the long-term interest rate show average long-term effects of approximately 0.6% and ?0.3%, respectively. Contrary to current literature our estimates suggest only about 16% adjustment per year. Thus the time to full recovery may be much slower than previously stated, so that deviations from the long-term equilibrium result in a dynamic adjustment process that may take up to 14 years.     

The use of proxy variables in housing price analysis

This paper presents a reexamination of data used by Berry to study housing prices in Chicago. The detailed data on 275 single-family houses are used to test the proposition that the tax assessment on improvements is a good proxy for the attributes of the houses. It is shown that the test used by Berry is irrelevant for the question of omitted variables bias, and the correct test is presented. It is concluded that the proxy corrects for a bias in the coefficient of percent black population, but increases the negative bias in the coefficient of percent Latino population.     

日本保障性住房建设的实施路径

日本保障性住宅的开发与建设,讲究精准明确的住宅设计标准和构件标准,具有交通便利、户型设计精致、空间精细舒适等特点。保障性住宅的开发模式以卧城模式和卫星城模式为主导,主张集中的规模化开发,以快速交通网络建设为依托;生活配套建设包含先进的基础设施、多样功能的复合组团、便捷的交通网络等。     

Estimating household demand for housing attributes in rent-controlled markets

We estimate the household’s marginal willingness to pay for housing attributes in the rent-controlled sector, so where rents are not freely market determined. The application of hedonic price approaches to obtain estimates of the household’s value of housing characteristics is then invalid. We apply an alternative estimation approach based on residential mobility. In our application, we focus on the households’ willingness to pay for number of rooms as well as the willingness to pay to avoid a long commuting distance. Our estimates appear plausible. For example, for households in the rent-controlled sector are willing to pay about 7% of their household income for an additional room. The implied marginal costs of commuting are about €0.17–€0.23 per (one-way) kilometre.     

Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets

This paper extends the shift-contagion concept to housing price returns in order to examine co-movements between pairs of regional housing markets in the US. It associates nonlinearities of housing prices with the monetary policy criteria at disaggregate levels. The framework with Markov-switching volatility in Gravelle et al. (Journal of International Economics 68:409–423, 2006) is utilized to investigate housing contagion phenomena which are defined as the switches in the structural transmission of common shocks across regional housing markets. The empirical results suggest that interactions between regional and nationwide housing markets switch across low-volatility and high-volatility regimes of common shocks for the Northeast and the West whose housing price returns are nonlinear. In addition, there is the significantly time-varying interdependence between the West and each of the other three regional housing markets. The estimated indicator of the monetary policy effectiveness implies that monetary policies can be effective in the Northeast and the West because they are more closely linked with other regional housing markets in volatile phases which are subject to housing crises. Noticeably, the broken interrelationships between regional housing markets and real economies in the 2001 recession imply high vulnerability to housing bubbles for regional markets, while short-term monetary policies can be effective in stabilizing the housing market turmoil around 2007.     

Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications

This study looks at the characteristics and determinants of booms and busts in housing prices for a sample of eighteen industrialised countries over the period 1980–2007. From an historical perspective, we find that recent housing booms have been amongst the longest in the past four decades. Estimates of a Multinomial Probit model suggest that domestic credit and interest rates have a significant influence on the probability of booms and busts occurring. Moreover, international liquidity plays a significant role for the occurrence of housing booms and—in conjunction with banking crises—for busts. We also find that the deregulation of financial markets has strongly magnified the impact of the domestic financial sector on the occurrence of booms.     

The role of the list price in housing markets: Theory and an econometric model

Houses are routinely sold at prices below, but rarely sold at prices above, their list prices. List prices appear to be price ceilings that preclude the possibility of sales at higher prices. This paper presents a theory of sellers' behaviour that explains why there are list prices in housing markets and why list prices are distinct from sellers' reservation prices. The theory forms the basis of an econometric model that has been estimated using data from the Baltimore, MD, area. The estimated model predicts sale and reservation prices conditional on list prices. The predictions of sale prices are considerably more accurate than those obtained from a standard hedonic price regression. The estimated model also explains why sellers may not be willing to reduce their list prices even after their houses have remained unsold for long periods of time.     

Racial residential segregation in multiple neighborhood markets: a dynamic sorting study

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Various degrees of residential segregation by income and race generally exist in U.S. cities. This study extends Sethi and Somanathan’s...     

Do the GSEs matter to low-income housing markets? An assessment of the effects of the GSE loan purchase goals on California housing outcomes

This study evaluates the effects of the GSE mortgage purchase goals on homeownership and housing conditions among communities that are the focus of the 1992 GSE Act and the HUD affordable housing goals. To identify GSE effects, the test framework exploits differences in the definition of lower-income and underserved neighborhoods under the 1992 GSE Act, which specifies loan purchase goals for the GSEs, and the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act, which governs loan origination activity among the federally-insured depository institutions. Research finding suggest little efficacy of the GSE home loan purchase goals in elevating the homeownership and housing conditions of targeted and underserved neighborhoods, in turn suggesting the importance of ongoing federal policy focus in achievement of affordable housing objectives.     

Time on market and sales price of residential housing: A note

This note extends the study of Kalra and Chan (1994). A simultaneous TOBIT equations model is established to address the simultaneity nature of time on the market (TOM) and sales price (SP) in the presence of censored sample bias. We find that both TOM and SP are positively related to each other.     

经济适用房空间分布对居住空间分异的影响——以武汉市为例

通过对1999年至2007年武汉市经济适用房建设和分布情况的分析,初步探究了武汉市经济适用房建设和空间分布情况的变化特点,着重分析了2007年武汉市在建的经济适用房项目空间分布"集中化"和"边缘化"的新特点.结论为,城市经济适用房的合理分布,能够避免"经济适用房阶层"的空间、心理隔离以及社会地位的边缘化.     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.     

韩国住房市场中的政府干预

回顾了韩国住房市场政府干预的背景,总结了其政策目标、政策工具及政府干预的框架体系.     

保障性住房财政补贴模式效率评价——基于住房供给市场差异的研究

加大保障性安居工程财政补贴支持力度,确保财政补贴的高效运行成为推进安居工程建设的关键。依据住房供给弹性和住房过滤理论,从经济学角度分析了供方补贴和需方补贴的实施效率。基于不同城市的住房市场差异,考察我国11个典型城市的住房供给弹性和住房过滤,在识别本地区住房市场特性的基础上探讨适宜采取的补贴方式。研究表明,不同城市由于住房供给弹性和过滤情况的不同,保障性住房财政补贴的效率存在显著差异,采取合适的保障房补贴方式,能够优化资源配置,打破财政压力对推进保障房工作的限制。     

Efficient land use in an equilibrium residential annulus

An efficient land use is one in which land is divided between residential activity and roads so as to minimize aggregate transportation costs. We analyze such an allocation for the case in which each consumer is in equilibrium. The problem synthesizes the approaches in the Mills-de Ferranti analysis and the Solow analysis. In Solow's analysis consumers were in equilibrium but land was allocated by rule of thumb; in that of Mills and de Ferranti land was efficiently allocated in aggregate but each consumer was allocated a fixed area for his residence. Our efficient allocation has a Nash equilibirum characterization. The efficient land allocation is characterized by declining convex functions of distance from the CBD for density on roads and for land rents. The nature of the pattern of land in road use is investigated.     

Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: New evidence from Beijing

Beijing's housing market has boomed over the last fifteen years. The city's population grew by 40.6% and per capita income (in constant RMB) by 273.9% from 1991 to 2005. Using two geocoded data sets, we present new evidence on the real estate price gradient, land price gradient, population densities, and building densities in Beijing's recent free housing market. The classic urban monocentric model's predictions are largely upheld in Beijing. We also document the importance of local public goods, such as access to public transit infrastructure, core high schools, clean air, and major universities, most of which have exogenous locations, as important determinants of real estate prices.     

On the positive correlation property in competitive insurance markets

Most competitive models of insurance markets under asymmetric information predict a positive relationship between coverage and the accident probability. This paper derives the conditions under which this prediction holds true in a general setting involving multiple loss levels and fixed administrative costs. If there is one loss level, this prediction holds necessarily true only if all equilibrium contracts offer strictly positive coverage. With multiple loss levels, the positive relationship between coverage and the accident probability may not hold true even if all contracts offer strictly positive coverage and administrative costs are zero. These results have important implications for empirical testing.