Transfer Payments without Growth: Evidence for German Regions, 1992–2005

After German reunification, interregional subsidies accounted for approximately 4% of gross fixed capital investment in the new federal states (i.e. those which were formerly part of the German Democratic Republic). We show that, between 1992 and 2005, infrastructure and corporate investment subsidies had a negative net impact on regional economic growth and convergence. This result is robust to both the specification of spatially weighted control variables and the use of instrumental variable techniques to control for the endogeneity of subsidies. Our results suggest that regional redistribution was ineffective, potentially due to a lack of spatial concentration to create growth poles.     

政府补贴促进制造业企业研发投入了吗?——基于资本结构的门槛效应研究

本文以2016~2018年沪深股市的制造业上市公司为研究样本,通过建立门槛效应模型,验证了政府补贴与企业研发投入的作用关系会随着资本结构的变化而变化。研究发现,政府补贴能够促进企业研发投入,并且在资本结构的调节作用下呈现三重门槛效应。进一步研究还发现,政府补贴对非国有企业研发投入的影响系数更高。因此,政府研发补贴政策需要综合考虑企业资金状况、企业性质,建立有效甄别机制,实施差异化补贴策略,加大对非国企补贴力度,拓宽中小企业融资渠道。     

Innovation dynamics and fiscal policy: Implications for growth,asset prices,and welfare

We study the equilibrium implications of different fiscal policies on macroeconomic quantities and welfare by utilizing an endogenous growth model that matches asset pricing data well. The fiscal instruments of interest are (i) subsidies to R&D expenditure, consumption and capital investment, and (ii) cuts in labor and corporate tax rates. Our equilibrium analysis provides new insights on the interplay of innovation dynamics and fiscal policy. Importantly, we find growth and welfare to be inversely related when changing R&D subsidies. However, this depends on how well the model reproduces asset pricing dynamics. Moreover, only subsidies to capital investments and cuts in the corporate tax rate have the potential to increase both growth and welfare.     

Macroeconomic effects of the regional allocation of public capital formation

This paper proposes a multi-regional, general equilibrium model with capital accumulation to analyze the economic impact of the spatial distribution of public capital formation. This model is calibrated and solved by using data for the Spanish economy in order to simulate some comparative dynamic exercises of fiscal policy changes. These analyses illustrate the role that public investment plays in generating the existing imbalances in regional development. This is done by computing the spillover effects and the opportunity costs of regional distribution of public investment. Finally, two rankings of regional priorities in public investment can be derived: one based on the criterion of reducing regional disparities, and another based on an efficiency criterion.     

Spatial econometric analysis of spatial general equilibrium

A structural spatial econometric model for nine regions of Israel is estimated using non-stationary spatial panel data during 1987–2015. The model focuses on the relation between regional markets in labour, housing and capital when there is imperfect internal migration between regions, when capital is imperfectly mobile between regions, and when building contractors operate across regions. Since the regional panel data are non-stationary, the econometric methodology is based on spatial panel cointegration. The estimated model is used to simulate the temporal and spatial propagation of regional shocks induced, for example, by regional policy (land for housing, regional investment grants). Impulse responses are temporally and spatially state dependent. They are also highly persistent because of longevity in housing and capital.     

政府补贴越多越有助于提升众创空间绩效吗——1902家国家备案众创空间的证据

基于已纳入国家级科技企业孵化器管理服务体系的1902家众创空间(以下简称“国家备案众创空间”)数据,运用信号理论,探讨政府补贴对众创空间绩效的影响,并考察吸收能力与国家高新区在此关系中的调节作用。研究结果表明:政府补贴与众创空间资金绩效存在“倒U”形关系,即适度的政府补贴对众创空间资金绩效的影响效果最佳;政府补贴正向促进众创空间人才绩效和创新绩效;吸收能力正向调节政府补贴与资金绩效、人才绩效和创新绩效之间的关系;国家高新区正向调节政府补贴与资金绩效、创新绩效之间的关系。     

Investment in Fixed Capital Stock: Testing for the Impact of Sectoral and Systemic Uncertainty*

This paper applies current theory recognizing the irreversibility of investment, in order to test for the impact of uncertainty on investment expenditure for a middle income country. The contribution of the paper is unique in two respects. First, it employs dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques not previously applied to investment functions. Secondly, it explicitly tests for the impact of both sectoral and systemic uncertainty on investment expenditure. We find that both sectoral (as measured by output volatility) and systemic uncertainty (as measured by political instability) have a negative impact on investment rates in a middle income country context. Liquidity constraints and growth in total factor productivity are found to have no impact on investment, while trade liberalization has the impact predicted by Heckscher‐Ohlin trade theory. Finally, we find complementarity effects between physical capital and skilled human capital, suggesting that South African educational policies may have hampered investment in physical capital as well as the growth performance of the economy. Policy implications emphasize the importance of lowering uncertainty for investors, and the need for sound human capital investment.     

要素市场扭曲、区域差异与R&D投入

本文利用要素市场扭曲指数及中国高技术产业1997～2009年省际面板数据,考察了要素市场扭曲对R&D投入的影响及区域差异。结果表明,要素市场扭曲对R&D资本投入和R&D人力投入有着不同的影响,抑制了R&D资本投入增长,促进了R&D人力投入;而且其对两者的影响都存在着显著的区域差异。在此基础上,运用门槛检验方法对这种区域差异的影响因素进行了探讨,研究发现,在区域经济发展水平、人力资本水平、财政收入、产权结构和对外开放程度等因素的不同门槛值区间,要素市场扭曲对高技术产业R&D投入的影响程度和方向都存在着明显的差异。     

Sooner or Later? – Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility

This paper analyzes the impact of capital gains taxation on investment timing decisions for risky investment projects with entry and exit flexibility under differential tax rates for ordinary income and capital gains. We investigate whether capital gains taxation influences immediate and delayed investments asymmetrically, given the optimal abandonment decision. If capital gains taxation induces a lock-in effect, this effect is anticipated in the investment timing decision. In contrast to prior research, our numerical simulations show that this lock-in effect of capital gains taxation can induce normal as well as paradoxical effects on investment timing under simultaneous entry and exit flexibility. A paradoxical timing effect, i.e., investment accelerated by capital gains taxation, especially emerges for high liquidation proceeds or, more conservative tax accounting, low interest rates, and low volatilities. In these cases, capital gains taxation reduces the value of the option to invest and hereby increases the propensity to invest immediately. As a second paradoxical tax effect, capital gains taxation may favor delayed real investment over financial investment. Facing these results, tax legislators should not use capital gains taxation as a short-term tax policy instrument to influence investors' timing decisions.     

Inter-generational effect of parental time and its policy implications

Motivated by the empirical fact that parents with more human capital spend more time teaching and taking care of their children, we develop and estimate a theoretical model in which altruistic parents pass their human capital on in two ways: goods investment and time investment. Based on the estimated model, we quantitatively assess how the two types of investment affect wage inequality and inter-generational mobility. Using the model to study the impacts of a public policy that taxes income to finance public schooling, we find significantly different policy effects in our model than in a model where time investment does not respond endogenously to the policy.     

PUBLIC R&D POLICIES AND PRIVATE R&D INVESTMENT: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

The importance of R&D investment in explaining economic growth is well documented in the literature. Policies by modern governments increasingly recognise the benefits of supporting R&D investment. Government funding has, however, become an increasingly scarce resource in times of financial crisis and economic austerity. Hence, it is important that available funds are used and targeted effectively. This paper offers the first systematic review and critical discussion of what the R&D literature has to say currently about the effectiveness of major public R&D policies in increasing private R&D investment. Public policies are considered within three categories, R&D tax credits and direct subsidies, support of the university research system and the formation of high‐skilled human capital, and support of formal R&D cooperations across a variety of institutions. Crucially, the large body of more recent literature observes a shift away from the earlier findings that public subsidies often crowd‐out private R&D to finding that subsidies typically stimulate private R&D. Tax credits are also much more unanimously than previously found to have positive effects. University research, high‐skilled human capital, and R&D cooperation also typically increase private R&D. Recent work indicates that accounting for non‐linearities is one area of research that may refine existing results.     

A capital accumulation model of the workers' enterprise

This article formulates a capital accumulation model of the workers' enterprise in which the standard adjustment-costs theory of investment is introduced into Sertel's framework. The existence, uniqueness and local stability of the steady state are shown to be established under mild conditions and the long-run effects of changes in the price of output, the external wage rate and the interest rate on the volume of capital and the size of membership are examined.     

社会资本、政府干预与区域资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据

选取2000—2012年中国大陆30个省份35个工业行业的数据为研究样本,分析社会资本和政府干预影响区域间资本配置效率的作用机制并进行实证检验后发现：较高的社会资本水平和较低的政府干预程度,有助于提高资本配置效率;社会资本与政府干预在影响资本配置效率方面存在替代关系,在政府干预比较严重的地区,社会资本对资本配置效率的影响更加显著。     

The mode of corporate diversification: Internal ventures versus acquisitions

This study investigates empirically the underlying motives for selecting the mode of corporate diversification and attempts to match the form of capital investments with a corresponding theoretical rationale for diversification. The empirical results seem to support both the transaction-costs rationale for diversification and the motive that arises from a firm's prior experience with each form of capital investment. However, the empirical findings are inconsistent with the explanation that is based on the owner-manager conflict of interest.     

基于VIKOR法的房地产投资决策研究

本文构建的房地产投资决策指标体系主要是从区域的熟悉度、企业规模以及经营风险和投资成本四方面考虑的。在确定指标权重的基础上运用VIKOR法对房地产投资指标进行分析,得到各个投资方案的利益比率,并对决策结果进行了详细的分析,为有效提升房地产投资决策提供理论参考。     

人力资本投资收益的区际差异:指数化分析及实证——以我国东部沿海6个城市群为例

人力资本投资收益的区际差异是区域人力资本研究的重要方面,本文总结了区域人力资本测度的四个角度,在此基础上依据人力资本适用性的基本思想,构建了人力资本投资收益区际差异的指数化分析框架,以我国东部沿海6个城市群为例,进行了实证分析和理论解释,探讨了其政策意义。     

资本账户开放缩窄了商业银行利差吗？——来自41个新兴市场经济体的证据

银行利差反映银行业效率,研究资本账户开放对银行利差的影响及作用机理具有重要的现实意义。构建一个包含异质性企业的多部门分析框架,从微观层面剖析资本账户开放影响银行利差的内在机制,并运用41个新兴市场经济体国家1996—2016年的数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明：资本账户开放显著降低了商业银行利差,法定型和事实型开放指数每增加一单位标准差,银行利差分别下降0.68和0.90个百分点。由此可见,加快推进资本账户开放是新常态下提升银行业效率,降低社会融资成本,进而实现经济高质量发展的重要途径。商业银行应大力拓展非利息业务,促进产品和业务升级,创造新的盈利增长点,以弥补利差缩窄带来的不利影响。     

风险投资系统环境双重集聚效应研究

经过近三十年的发展,我国风险投资无论从风险投资机构的数量、增量,风险资本总量、增量,还是从风险投资的规模及投资强度而言,都呈现出良好的发展趋势。但是,各地区风险投资发展严重不平衡,如何打造系统环境促进风险投资发展成为各地区政府的关注重点。本研究在相关理论研究的基础之上,基于双重聚集经济性效应理论深入探究了各地区政府如何打造风险投资系统环境,形成一级和二级聚集效应的良性循环。     

Using managers' expectations for ex-ante policy evaluation: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

Evaluation of the impacts of government policies during an economic crisis is often delayed until the outcomes are realized. Policies can be better guided if they can be evaluated amid a crisis, before the realization of outcomes. This study examines whether survey data on the expectations of small business managers can help evaluate two high-stake subsidies for firms amid the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, namely, Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS). We evaluate the accuracy of managers' expectations, estimate the impact of subsidies on the expected firm survival, and compare it with the estimated impact on realized survival. We find that the managers' expectations on their future sales, survival rate, and the possibility of receiving these subsidies predict the realized outcomes, although they were highly pessimistic about their survival rates. We find that the estimated impacts of the SPSB on the expected survival rates have the same sign as the estimated impact on the realized survival rates, but the size is more than twice because of the pessimism on survival. The estimated impacts of the EAS are both insignificant. Therefore, although its impact may be overestimated, managers' expectations are useful for selecting an effective policy.     

管理层持股、研发投入与股权资本成本

企业研发投入具有风险性,会导致资本成本提高,研发融资负担加重,进而对企业研发活动的积极性产生负面影响。利用2007—2013年中国A股上市公司数据,对研发投入的资本成本效应和公司治理机制缓解研发投入资本成本效应的作用进行研究,结果显示：企业研发投入与股权资本成本之间显著正相关,研发投入的资本成本效应明显;提高高级管理者、董事会与监事会成员等管理层的持股比例有助于降低研发投入的资本成本效应。进一步研究发现,研发企业的信息披露程度对高级管理者持股降低研发投入资本成本效应具有替代作用;研发投入带来的收益率增加有助于抵消研发投入导致的股权资本成本提高。