A TEST OF THE RISK PREMIUM HYPOTHESIS

Contrary to economic theory, there is international evidence that common stock returns and inflation are negatively related. This negative relationship is examined in this paper and the applicability of the risk premium hypothesis is tested. According to this hypothesis, an increase in unanticipated inflation causes the market risk premium to rise, which in turn lowers current stock prices. A model is developed and the effect of uncertain inflation on the market risk premium across four countries is tested empirically. Results indicate that the market risk premium is positively related to uncertain inflation.     

ON THE NEGATIVE RISK PREMIUM FOR RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATES: A COMMENT AND EXTENSION

This paper develops conditions necessary for negative risk premia to emerge at the market level, and at the individual level in imperfect markets. It also correctly shows how to discount cash outflows. The model used to integrate these topics is the state-preference model of security valuation; the most general model available. The paper corrects serious errors contained in recent work published in the journal.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK AND RETURN OF FRENCH COMMON STOCKS

In this paper the relationship is examined between the average return and the risk of a sample of 144 French common stocks which traded continuously over the decade 1969–1979. Although it was found that a negative relationship existed between average return and systematic risk, sufficient evidence could not be gathered to reject the hypothesis that the pricing of French common stocks conforms to the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The nature and implications of the observed negative risk-return trade-off are discussed.     

LITIGATION RISK FOR AUDITORS AND THE RISK SOCIETY

The auditing industry has mounted a global campaign to reduce its liability. In Canada, it is attempting to change from a doctrine of joint and several liability to proportionate liability, to have the Federal government legislate a statutory cap on liability, or to have the Provincial governments approve the establishment of Limited Liability Partnerships. These initiatives are consistent with the proposals of the CPA firms in the US and the CA firms in the UK. This cross-national trend suggests that a global theory of society is needed to analyze the consequences of audit risk. This paper uses the “risk society” model proposed by Beck to understand why the audit industry focuses on reducing exposure to liability, rather than on improving the quality of audits. Beck's theory of “reflexive modernization” provides an analysis of the so-called “liability crisis” that attempts to overcome the institutional construction offered by the auditing industry. The paper recognizes that it is very difficult for observers outside of the large auditing firms to judge the real risks of audits and to develop alternative public policy options. Ideally, we should be able to evaluate litigation in a modern audit environment. However, the audit firms are not required to disclose sufficient information about their costs to determine the real impact. Meanwhile, professional groups are lobbying hard for changes that will reduce auditors risk without addressing the root causes of audit failures.     

RETHINKING RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper presents a theory of corporate risk management that attempts to go beyond the "variance-minimization" model that dominates most academic discussions of the subject. It argues that the primary goal of risk management is not to dampen swings in corporate cash flows or value, but rather to provide protection against the possibility of costly lower-tail outcomes –situations that would cause financial distress or make a company unable to carry out its investment strategy. (In the jargon of finance specialists, risk management can be viewed as the purchase of well-out-of-the-money put options designed to limit downside risk.)
By eliminating downside risk and reducing the expected costs of financial trouble, risk management can also help a company to achieve both its optimal capital structure and its optimal ownership structure. For, besides increasing corporate debt capacity, the reduction of downside risk also encourages larger equity stakes for managers by shielding their investments from "uncontrollables."
The paper also departs from standard finance theory in suggesting that some companies may have a comparative advantage in bearing certain financial market risks–an advantage that derives from information acquired through their normal business activities. Although such specialized information may lead some companies to take speculative positions in commodities or currencies, it is more likely to encourage "selective" hedging, a practice in which the risk manager's "view" of future price movements influences the percentage of the exposure that is hedged.
But, to the extent that such view-taking becomes an accepted part of a company's risk management program, it is important to evaluate managers' bets on a risk-adjusted basis and relative to the market. If risk managers want to behave like money managers, they should be evaluated like money managers.     

SCENARIO GENERATION FOR OPERATIONAL RISK

Operational risk is an increasingly important area of risk management. Scenarios are an important modelling tool in operational risk management as alternative viable methods may not exist. This can be due to challenging modelling, data and implementation issues, and other methods fail to take into account expert information. The use of scenarios has been recommended by regulators; however, scenarios can be unreliable, unrealistic and fail to take into account quantitative data. These problems have also been identified by regulators such as Basel, and presently little literature exists on addressing the problem of generating scenarios for operational risk. In this paper we propose a method for generating operational risk scenarios. We employ the method of cluster analysis to generate scenarios that enable one to combine expert opinion scenarios with quantitative operational risk data. We show that this scenario generation method leads to significantly improved scenarios and significant advantages for operational risk applications. In particular for operational risk modelling, our method leads to resolving the key problem of combining two sources of information without eliminating the information content gained from expert opinions, tractable computational implementation for operational risk modelling, improved stress testing, what‐if analyses and the ability to apply our method to a wide range of quantitative operational risk data (including multivariate distributions). We conduct numerical experiments on our method to demonstrate and validate its performance and compare it against scenarios generated from statistical property matching for comparison. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TAX INCENTIVES AND HIGH RISK INVESTMENT

The objectives of this paper are to examine reasons for the Australian Government's decision to create a tax incentive for high risk (hi-tech) industries. Comparisons are made with similar policies in other countries, and policy issues related to the administration of the Australian scheme are discussed. The paper does not attempt to examine the broader issue of whether or not there is a requirement for such a scheme to encourage hi-tech industries.     

BOND BETA AND DEFAULT RISK

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bond betas and default risk. Previous studies conclude that there is an apparent lack of a significant and direct relationship and offer various explanations. This paper illustrates that beta is influenced by offsetting or conflicting factors that cause the relationship to be ambiguous. Empirical evidence confirms the explanation.     

ON THE LINKAGE BETWEEN FINANCIAL RISK TOLERANCE AND RISK AVERSION

We explore the linkage between financial risk tolerance (FRT) and risk aversion. To do this, we obtain FRT scores from a psychometrically validated survey and conduct a battery of online lottery choice experiments involving the same nonstudent participants. We contrast: real and hypothetical payoffs, low and high stakes, decisions involving gains and losses, and order effects. Our key finding is that the two approaches to analyzing decision making under uncertainty are strongly aligned. We present evidence that this is particularly the case for the female participants in our sample and when high‐stake gambles are employed.     

ILLIQUIDITY RISK,PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS,AND THE OPTIMAL MATURITY OF CORPORATE DEBT

I derive the optimal maturity period for corporate debt used to finance a specific project, when costly financial distress is triggered by the inability to meet coupon obligations. My model predicts a negative relation between bond risk and maturity, and it explains why high-grade bonds show greater maturity dispersion than low-grade bonds, as observed in U.S. corporate bond markets. The major determinant of bond maturity is project duration for low-risk bonds and project risk for high-risk bonds. Other determinants of bond maturity are debt burden, reorganization costs, corporate tax rate, interest rate, and project growth rate.     

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN LEASE DISCLOSURE AND THE LESSEE'S SYSTEMATIC RISK

This paper investigates the effect of a firm's lease commitment disclosure under Accounting Series Release 147 on its systematic risk. The three hypotheses are: (1) there will be no change in the lessee's systematic risk; (2) the lessee's systematic risk will increase because the disclosure increases the debt ratio; and (3) the lessee's systematic risk decreases because the disclosure reduces the uncertainty related to risk-assessment. A hedge portfolio approach is used to test these hypotheses. The results indicate that the null hypothesis is to be rejected in favor of the third hypothesis.     

HOW FIRMS MANAGE RISK: THE OPTIMAL MIX OF LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR DERIVATIVES

This paper provides guidance on how corporations should choose the optimal mix of "linear" and "non-linear" derivatives. Linear derivatives are products such as futures, forwards, and swaps, whose payoffs vary in linear fashion with changes in the un-derlying asset price or reference rate. Non-linear derivatives are contracts with option-like payoffs, including caps, floors, and swaptions.
A company's optimal hedging position should generally consist of linear contracts because of their effective-ness in smoothing corporate cash flows. But as the firm's business (quantity) risk increases, its use of linear contracts will decline due to costs associated with overhedging. At the same time, there will be a shift towards the use of non-linear contracts. The degree of substitution of non-linear for linear in-struments will depend on the relation-ship between the quantities to be hedged and market prices. A negative relationship will tend to exacerbate the substitution effect while a positive re-lationship will dampen the effect. An empirical examination of corporate derivative holdings provides support for all of the major hypotheses.     

ON THE THEORETICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BUSINESS RISK AND SYSTEMATIC RISK

This article develops a theoretical relationship between systematic risk and business risk. It is an area that has not been substantially developed in the literature. Rubinstein (1973) and Lev (1974) both developed theoretical models of systematic risk allowing for stochastic demand. A model is derived that allows for prices, variable costs and demand to be simultaneously stochastic, utilizing the covariance of the product of random variables. The temporal stationarity of unlevered systematic risk is dependent upon the temporal stationarity of the theoretical structure derived. Insight is gained as to a potential source of the empirically observed temporal instability of levered systematic risk.     

DURATION,DEFAULT RISK,AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

We examine the interactive effect of default and interest rate risk on duration of defaultable bonds. We show that duration for defaultable bonds can be longer or shorter than default‐free bonds depending on the relation between default intensity and interest rates. Empirical evidence indicates that in most cases duration for defaultable bonds is much shorter than for their default‐free counterparts because of the negative relation between default risk and interest rates. Results suggest that the duration measure must be adjusted for the effects of default risk and stochastic interest rates to achieve an effective bond portfolio immunization.     

LIFO-FIFO, ACCOUNTING RATIOS AND MARKET RISK: A RE-ASSESSMENT

This paper re-examines the effect of the inventory costing method on the association between accounting risk measures (ARMs) and market risk, and extends earlier research in several respects. The groups of FIFO and LIFO firms are matched on the basis of various financial characteristics to reduce selfselection bias, and the effect of inventory costing methods on the usefulness of ARMs in predicting market risk is investigated. The findings indicate that predictions based on FIFO show an improvement on market based predictions, but predictions based on LIFO fail to show such an improvement.     

TIME-SERIES PROPERTIES OF THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

In this paper we use time-series models to investigate the presence of autoregression, random variation, and random walk movements of historic equity risk premiums. An autoregressive risk premium is found for 1926–58, but random variation around a much lower risk premium mean is found for 1959–90. This finding is not sensitive to holding-period length, the choice of the risk-free rate proxy, or January/July seasonal effects.     

RISK PREMIUM EFFECTS ON IMPLIED VOLATILITY REGRESSIONS

This article provides new insights into the sources of bias of option implied volatility to forecast its physical counterpart. We argue that this bias can be attributed to volatility risk premium effects. The latter are found to depend on high‐order cumulants of the risk‐neutral density. These cumulants capture the risk‐averse behavior of investors in the stock and option markets for bearing the investment risk that is reflected in the deviations of the implied risk‐neutral distribution from the normal distribution. We show that the bias of implied volatility to forecast its corresponding physical measure can be eliminated when the implied volatility regressions are adjusted for risk premium effects. The latter are captured mainly by the third‐order risk‐neutral cumulant. We also show that a substantial reduction of higher order risk‐neutral cumulants biases to predict their corresponding physical cumulants is supported when adjustments for risk premium effects are made.     

A SENIOR MANAGER'S GUIDE TO INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper provides an overview of corporate risk management for senior managers. The author discusses the integrated risk management framework, emphasizing that a company can implement its risk management objectives in three fundamental ways: modifying its operations, using targeted financial instruments, or adjusting its capital structure. "Integration" refers both to the aggregation of all risks faced by the firm into a net exposure and to the coordinated use of these three risk management techniques. The author provides a functional analysis of integrated risk management using a wide-ranging set of case illustrations to show how the risk management process influences, and is influenced by, a company's overall strategy and business activities. Based on such analysis, the article concludes by sketching a framework intended to help managers design a value-maximizing, enterprise-wide corporate risk management system.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF SELECTIVE EXCHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT–EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS

Survey studies of both corporate exchange risk management and the corporate use of derivatives in general have shown considerable variation in managerial practices. Some firms do not hedge open positions at all, and some hedge their exposures completely. Most companies, however, hedge only those positions on which they expect a currency loss, while leaving open positions on which they expect a currency gain—a practice known as “selective hedging.” Finally, there is a small minority of firms that engage in outright speculation, deliberately creating risk exposures in addition to those arising from their normal business operations. Such findings are consistent with survey studies that suggest that a majority of corporate financial managers appear to believe that they are able to “beat the market”—a belief that, of course, is inconsistent with efficient markets theory. So why do some companies follow selective risk management strategies while other firms hedge open positions without recourse to exchange rate forecasts? In an attempt to answer this question, the author surveyed 74 German non‐financial companies about their exchange risk management practices. He found that highly levered firms were less likely to take bets in the currency markets, while bank‐controlled firms were more likely to use a selective risk management strategy. There was a negative relationship between profitability and the use of selective hedging—a finding that could be interpreted as suggesting that selective hedging does not generally benefit the firm's shareholders. Finally, there was a weak tendency for larger firms to be more inclined to use forecasts in their foreign exchange risk management.     

SERVICE INTEGRATION IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT COURSE

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explain the concept and application of service learning in higher education and to outline a method for integrating a community service project into the risk management curriculum.