New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics

The economic theory of decision-making under uncertainty is used to produce three econometric models of dynamic discrete choice: (1) for a single spell of unemployment; (2) for an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment; (3) for a general three-state model with a non-market sector. The paper provides a structural economic motivation for the continuous time Markov (or more generally ‘competing risks’) model widely used in longitudinal analysis in biostatistics and sociology, and it extends previous work on dynamic discrete choice to a continuous time setting. An important feature of identification analysis is separation of economic parameters that can only be identified by assuming arbitrary functional forms from economic parameters that can be identified by non-parametric procedures. The paper demonstrates that most econometric models for the analysis of truncated data are non-parametrically under-identified. It also demonstrates that structural estimators frequently violate standard regularity conditions. The standard asymptotic theory is modified to account for this essential feature of many structural models of labor force dynamics. Empirical estimates of an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment are presented.     

Understanding skilled migrants’ employment in the host country: a multidisciplinary review and a conceptual model

Abstract

Globalization has led to an increase in international mobility in many occupational fields. Therefore, scholars from a variety of disciplines have studied the topic of skilled migration. The purpose of this study is to review and synthesize the empirical research on skilled migrants’ qualification-matched employment across multiple disciplines. Skilled migrants are people on the move who possess university degrees or extensive work experience in professional fields when they leave their countries of origin to seek employment elsewhere. This review synthesizes findings of 106 empirical studies published from 1990 to mid-2017 on skilled migrants’ employment. We develop a conceptual model that includes antecedent conditions associated with skilled migrant qualification-matched employment in their host country and its outcomes. We also highlight the role of multilevel factors and moderating variables associated with skilled migrants’ possibility of obtaining qualification-matched employment. Our review has implications for human resource scholars and practitioners concerned with skilled migrants’ employment and labor market.     

East–West migration and gender: Is there a differential effect for migrant women?

This paper examines whether female East–West migrants in Germany face a differential effect on their labor market outcomes after they move compared to both males and stayers. It builds on a “difference-in-difference-in-difference” approach, employs a matching procedure to define the corresponding before and after periods for movers and stayers and uses panel data techniques to difference away time-invariant unobservable confounders. I find that migrant women after migration do not experience significantly different earnings or employment prospects, compared to migrant males and female stayers. They do, however, face an additional negative effect on hours worked and on annual income. The results also suggest that for them, the income effect seems to dominate the substitution effect and they substitute some market work in the West with home production, in particular, with childcare.     

四川农民工务工流与沿海地区“民工荒”问题的研究──基于2009年四川地震灾后农民工务工的实证分析

处于转型期的中国劳动力市场农民工的就业取向符合人力资本论和新移动经济学理论。四川地震促使农民工大量回川导致沿海地区"民工荒"问题的加剧,与农民工的经济行为,就业意识,就业决策的变化以及农民工打工渠道,外出打工成本,家庭收益,打工环境等个人的就业取向相关。当前,在全球金融危机和国内经济发展的影响下,四川劳动力市场的变化和农民工务工流的去向选择,正在改变中国劳动力市场,使之形成新的格局。     

Tied Migration and Subsequent Employment: Evidence from Couples in Britain*

We use unique information on migration behaviour and reasons for migration to study the impact of tied migration on labour market outcomes among husbands and wives. Fewer than 2% of couples migrate for job‐related reasons and the majority of these move for reasons associated with the husband's job. Estimates from dynamic random‐effects models indicate that husbands and wives in couples that migrated for job‐related reasons suffer lower job retention rates than non‐migrants. Tied migration reduces the probability of subsequent employment for both husbands and wives and in particular has a large negative impact on job retention rates among wives.     

Differences in Opportunities? Wage,Employment and House‐Price Effects on Migration*

Most empirical studies of individual migration choice analyse factors associated with out‐migration from an origin location. In contrast, we model the migration decision within the context of potential destinations, combining British panel data over the period 1992–2008 with other data sources. Contrary to earlier micro studies, we show that differences in house prices levels (but not growth) are important determinants of household migration for homeowners. Unemployed individuals respond to regional differences in expected individual wages, whereas the employed are more sensitive to employment opportunities. Our evidence is consistent with partners of heads of households being tied migrants.     

Migration consequences of welfare reform

We investigate whether recent changes in welfare policy affect the migration of low-educated unmarried mothers. Estimates indicate that welfare reform is associated with an increase in employment-related intrastate migration, and a decrease in non-employment related migration, both within and between states. The net effect was a small increase in intrastate migration and a small decrease in interstate migration. The close link between migration and employment suggests that welfare reform has motivated low-income women to move for economic reasons. In general, welfare policy appears to have a much larger effect on residential location because of its relationship to employment than because of benefit differences between states.     

Frontier-free Europe: a study of female migrants in the banking sector

Legislation on 'freedom of movement' guarantees the recognition of qualifications between countries of the European Union (EU), and is meant to provide migrants with access to employment in all member states. This paper reports on a study undertaken of EU migrant women in the banking sector in Britain, Germany and Spain. The discusses the experiences of migrants with regard to access to employment and positions abroad comparable to those held prior to migration. Migrants in this case experienced obstacles in the access to such employment. Although their experiences influenced by labour-market needs, findings suggest that the determining factors for barriers encountered were differences in the education and training cultures of countries pre- and post-migration, and the values and attitudes attached to these in of expectations by employers and migrants themselves.     

U.S. interstate labor force migration: An analysis of trends, net exchanges, and migration subsystems

The rich geography and complex temporal trends of U.S. interstate labor force migration are portrayed. The most commonly reported net migration statistics hide multi-faceted patterns of state-to-state exchange. Maps depicting net migration balances show that much population redistribution has been taking place counter to the popularly conceived Frostbelt-to-Sunbelt flow. Significant net migration exchange takes place within each of the major regions of the U.S. as well as between them.

Principal component analyses carried out on gross state-to-state flow tables for 1960–1965, 1965–1970, and 1970–1975 suggest the existence of a set of remarkably stable migration subsystems, despite the heralded net migration turnarounds in nonmetropolitan-to-metropolitan and south-to-north patterns of flow.     

The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK

Over the past 20?years labour has become increasingly mobile and whilst employment and earnings effects in host countries have been extensively analysed, the implications for firm and industry performance have received far less attention. This paper explores the direct economic consequences of immigration on host nations?? productivity performance at a sectoral level in two very different European countries, Spain and the UK. Whilst the UK has traditionally seen substantial immigration, for Spain the phenomenon is much more recent. Our findings from a growth accounting analysis show that migration has made a negative contribution to labour productivity growth in Spain and a negative but negligible contribution in the UK. This difference is driven by a positive impact from migrant labour quality in the UK. This finding broadly holds across all sectors, but we note considerable variation in magnitudes. Labour productivity growth has a neutral contribution from migrant labour in construction and personal services in the UK, whilst in every case in Spain the effect is negative, most strongly in agriculture. Using an econometric approach to production function estimation we observe a positive long term effect on total factor productivity from migrant workers in the UK and a negative effect in Spain. Our findings suggest that either the UK is better at assimilating migrants or is more selective in terms of who is permitted to migrate.     

A simultaneous model for regional labor supply, incorporating labor force participation, commuting and migration

Simultaneous relations between various components of the regional supply of labor and the situation on the regional labor market are developed. There is a distinction between migration, participation and commuting. Conventional research only devotes attention towards the partial relation between one of these components and the regional labor market situation. However, many decisions people make, involve a simultaneous approach towards participation, commuting and migration. This approach is operationalized at a macro-level by constructing a simultaneous supply model. For the specifications we go back to standard literature. In each of the equations, apart from variables that are specific for the particular function, special attention is given to the interrelation between the three supply variables. An overall simultaneity is described by a fourth endogenous variable: unemployment; this variable is explained by employment, participation, netmigration and netcommuting. A combined time-series/cross-section-analysis is used to estimate the model.

Surprisingly it appears that in comparison with OLS parameter- and t-values of the supply-equations are not affected by the use of simultaneous estimation techniques. Only for the unemployment-equation there are significant changes.     

From the dark end of the street to the bright side of the road? The wage returns to migration in Britain

We examine the impact of internal migration in Britain on the growth in men's hourly wages using nationally representative panel data. To do this we compare wage outcomes for migrants against different control groups, and explicitly allow for the potential endogeneity of the migration decision. Our results demonstrate the existence of a wage growth premium to migration. The size of this premium depends on any associated job mobility and the reason for migration, and is largest for continuously employed men who migrated for job related reasons. The wage profiles of migrants and other workers diverge substantially in the two years post-migration.     

Migrant Networks and the Spread of Information

Diaspora networks provide information to future migrants, which affects their success in the host country. While the existing literature explains the effect of networks on the outcomes of migrants through the size of the migrant community, we show that the quality of the network is an equally important determinant. We argue that networks that are more integrated in the society of the host country can provide more accurate information to future migrants about job prospects. In a decision model with imperfect signalling, we show that migrants with access to a better network are more likely to make the right decision, that is, they migrate only if they gain. We test these predictions empirically using data on recent Mexican migrants to the United States. To instrument for the quality of networks, we exploit the settlement of immigrants who came during the Bracero program in the 1950s. The results are consistent with the model predictions, providing evidence that connections to a better integrated network lead to better outcomes after migration.     

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Evidence from Spanish regions

We study the labor market effects of the large immigration wave in Spain between 2001 and 2006. In this period the foreign-born share increased from 6% to 13%, with a total inflow exceeding three million immigrants. Our analysis exploits the large variation in the size of immigration flows across Spain's regions. To identify causal effects, we take advantage of the fact that immigrants' location choices were strongly driven by early migrant settlements that arrived during the 1980s. We find that the relatively unskilled migration inflows did not affect the wages or employment rates of unskilled workers in the receiving regions. The growth of the unskilled labor force was absorbed mostly through increases in total employment. This increase did not originate in changes in the composition of regional output, but was instead driven by changes in skill intensity at the industry level. Regions that received a large inflow of unskilled immigrants increased the intensity of use of the now more abundant (unskilled) labor, relative to other regions. The key industries responsible for this absorption were retail, construction, hotels and restaurants and domestic services. These results are inconsistent with standard open economy models but are in line with recent empirical studies for the United States and Germany.     

The effects of college and military populations on models of interstate migration

College and military migration represent almost one-fourth of all interstate migration in the U.S. Often the flows of these populations are substantially different from those of the civilian labor force to which traditional human capital models of migration apply. Separate migration models accounting for the special circumstances of these disaggregated populations lead to improved specification of migration between states.     

A firm level perspective on migration: the role of extra-EU workers in Italian manufacturing

A production-theory approach to migration is adopted in this paper to address the role of migrant workers from extra-EU countries in Italian manufacturing firms. The adoption of flexible functional forms to model firm-level technology lets us directly derive different measures of elasticity from the coefficients of the estimated production and cost functions. The use of foreign labour is shown to affect the industry composition in favour of low skill intensive sectors and the estimated cross demand elasticities confirm the complementarity between migrant and native workers found in previous studies. However, the two labour inputs prove to be substitutes in terms of the Morishima elasticity of substitution: in general, firms tend to increase the foreign labour intensity of production in response to a decline in migrants’ wage, while the migrant to domestic labour ratio responds to changes in the domestic workers’ wage only for firms in low skill intensive sectors.     

Maternal employment,migration, and child development

We analyze the roles of and interrelationships among school inputs and parental inputs in affecting child development through the specification and estimation of a behavioral model of household migration and maternal employment decisions. We integrate information on these decisions with observations on child outcomes over a 13-year period from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY). We find that the impact of our school quality measures diminishes by factors of 2 to 4 after accounting for the fact that families may choose where to live in part based on school characteristics and labor market opportunities. The positive statistical relationship between child outcomes and maternal employment reverses sign and remains statistically significant after controlling for its possible endogeneity. Our estimates imply that when parental responses are taken into account, policy changes in school quality end up having only minor impacts on child test scores.     

Migration of young labor force entrants

The analysis focuses on what factors encourage or discourage migration among recent high school graduates. Youth represent an important group to study because they have the highest rates of both job and location mobility in the U.S. population. Of interest to policy-makers is the role of migration in the school-to-work transition and its more general role as a manpower allocation mechanism.

The empirical specification is based on a theoretical model of individual decision-making in Black [1]. A logit model of the probability of migration is estimated separately by elapsed time since graduation, sex, and marital status. The data source consists of the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 that has been merged with local labor market data from the 1970 decennial census. The analysis yields several insights into the determinants of migration: local labor market conditions, an individual's employment success, migration experience before and after high school graduation, and personal characteristics such as aptitude, sex, family status, school experience, and family background.     

Part-Time Employment of Married Women in the U.S.A

A bstract . The rapid growth since 1970, and especially in the 1980s, of part-time and temporary employment was attributed to the transition of the economy from manufacturing to service production and to labor demand side factors. Since part-timers are predominantly women and the majority of the female labor force are married women, the association between the female labor force participation rate and the part-time employment of married women across the 48 continental states of America in 1980 are explored. The empirical study supports the positive association between the two variables, but fails to support the role of the service sector in explaining part-time employment of married women across the states of America.     

农村剩余劳动力转移培训研究

"三农"问题是影响我国全面建设小康社会的首要问题,其根源在于如何提高农民的收入和生活水平。随着中国城市化进程的加速,社会产业结构进行调整,劳动力的就业结构发生变化。农村剩余劳动力开始涌入城市和经济发达省份,走上了外出打工的道路。随着农村越来越多的剩余劳动力的出现,农村劳动力跨区域进城务工行为日趋显著。在此背景下,对农村剩余劳动力进行综合素质和技能培训,加快农村剩余劳动力向非农产业转移,是从根本上解决"三农"问题,消除城乡二元结构,缩小城乡收入差距,早日实现我国全面建设小康社会的重要举措,就显得尤为重要。