PRE-TEST ESTIMATION AND TESTING IN ECONOMETRICS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Abstract. This paper surveys a range of important developments in the area of preliminary-test inference in the context of econometric modelling. Both pre-test estimation and pre-test testing are discussed. Special attention is given to recent contributions and results. These include analyses of pre-test strategies under model mis-specification and generalised regression errors; exact sampling distribution results; and pre-testing inequality constraints on the model's parameters. In many cases, practical advice is given to assist applied econometricians in appraising the relative merits of pre-testing. It is shown that there are situations where pre-testing can be advantageous in practice     

ECONOMETRIC ISSUES IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS WITH GENERATED REGRESSORS

Abstract. The paper critically reviews the literature on the econometric issues raised by the use of generated regressors (GR) in empirical models. The economic rationale for the use of GR is considered, with examples being drawn from several macroeconomic examples, including New Classical Macroeconomic (NCM) models which postulate monetary ncutrality. Various estimation methods are discussed for models which include 'surprise' or 'unexpected' terms and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are investigated. Drawing upon the work of McAleer and McKenzie (1991b), situations where the typically inefficient two-step estimation (2SE) method will be efficient are highlighted. Problems of model misspecification and measurement errors are also investigated. An empirical section highlights some of the dangers of using uncorrected 2SE estimation results through a careful consideration of many recent attempts to test the NCM monetary neutrality hypothesis.     

THRESHOLD SPECIFICATION AND PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION IN THE GENERALIZED ORDINAL PROBIT MODEL

The following note corrects errors in the review and exposition of the generalized ordinal probit model as offered by Greene et al. (2014,Journal of Economic Surveys 28: 109‐133).     

A COMPARISON OF SOME INTRODUCTORY AND UNDERGRADUATE ECONOMETRIC TEXTBOOKS

Books reviewed in this article:
William H. Greene (1993) Econometric Analysis (Second Edition)
William E. Griffiths, R. Carter Hill and George G. Judge (1993) Learning and Practicing Econometrics
George G. Judge, R. Carter Hill, William E. Griffiths, Helmut Lütkepohl and Tsoung-Chao Lee (1988) Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics (Second Edition)
G. S. Maddala (1992) Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics (Second Edition)     

APPROACHES AND METHODS FOR THE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF MARKET POWER: A SURVEY AND EMPIRICAL COMPARISON

This study discusses two widely used approaches in the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) literature and examines the strengths and weaknesses of the Production-Theoretic Approach (PTA) and the General Identification Method (GIM) for the econometric analysis of market power in agricultural and food markets. We provide a framework that may help researchers to evaluate and improve structural models of market power. Starting with the specification of the approaches in question, we compare published empirical studies of market power with respect to the choice of the applied approach, functional forms, estimation methods and derived estimates of the degree of market power. Thereafter, we use our framework to evaluate several structural models based on PTA and GIM to measure oligopsony power in the Ukrainian dairy industry. The PTA-based results suggest that the estimated parameters of oligopsony power are significantly different from zero, while GIM-based results do not indicate any evidence of oligopsony market power in the Ukrainian dairy industry. Moreover, estimations results vary substantially due to the employed estimation procedure.     

MIS‐SPECIFICATION TESTING IN RETROSPECT

The primary objective of this paper is threefold. First, to undertake a retrospective view of Mis‐Specification (M‐S) testing, going back to the early 20th century, with a view to (i) place it in the broader context of modeling and inference and (ii) bring out some of its special features. Second, to call into question several widely used arguments undermining the importance of M‐S testing in favor of relying on weak probabilistic assumptions in conjunction with generic robustness claims and asymptotic inference. Third, to bring out the crucial role of M‐S testing in securing trustworthy inference results. This is achieved by extending/modifying Fisher's statistical framework with a view to draw a clear line between the modeling and the inference facets of statistical induction. The proposed framework untangles the statistical from the substantive (structural) model and focuses on how to secure the adequacy of the statistical model before probing for substantive adequacy. A case is made for using joint M‐S tests based on custom‐built auxiliary regressions with a view to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of probing for potential statistical misspecifications.     

MATERNAL EDUCATION AND CHILD ATTAINMENT IN JAMAICA: TESTING THE BARGAINING POWER HYPOTHESIS†

In a bargaining model of household decision-making, any variable reflecting the outside opportunities of household members will influence household demand patterns. Mother's education has been found to be an important determinant of children's education and health outcomes. This paper argues that within a bargaining framework, mother's education may influence children's health and education by shifting bargaining power within the household. An empirical strategy is developed and applied to data on teenage grade attainment and school enrolment in Jamaica. The results support the bargaining power hypothesis, and imply a broader role for mother's education than has previously been considered.