THE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Books reviewed in this article:
C. W. J. Granger, ed. (1990) Modelling Economic Series: Readings in Econometric Methodology. Oxford:
L. G. Godfrey (1988) Misspecification Tests in Econometrics: The Lagrange Multiplier Principle and Other Approaches. Cambridge:
Denis Sargan (Meghnad Desai, ed.) (1988) Lectures on Advanced Econometric Theory. Oxford:     

THE MAKING OF ECONOMIC POLICY

Books reviewed in this article:
Rosalind Levacic (1987) Economic Policy-Making: Its Theory and Practice.
Paul Whiteley (1986) Political Control of the Macro-Economy.
Douglas A. Hibbs Jr. (1987) The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies.
Wyn Grant with Jane Sargent (1987) Business and Politics in Britain.
Michael Moran (1986) The Politics of Banking     

THE APPLICABILITY OF THE TRADITIONAL THEORY OF ECONOMIC POLICY

Abstract. The traditional theory of economic policy requires targets, instruments, an empirical economic model, and a social welfare or criterion function to be specified in order to derive the optimal economic policy. Empirical studies of reaction functions suggest that economic policy is carried out in some systematic manner, subject to interference from political factors. This survey addresses the problems of specifying, estimating and applying an economic model when economic policy is following a path specified by a reaction function. Attention is paid to rational expectations, the Lucas'critique, and the policy neutrality proposition. Lack of knowledge of the policy maker's objective function poses the most serious difficulty when applying the theory of economic policy. Various methods of determining this function are reviewed, and the possibility that policy makers might be satisficing is discussed. The role played by political factors is considered in the light of the public choice literature.     

POLITICAL PROCESS AND THE FORMATION OF ECONOMIC POLICY

Institutional economics has some useful things to say about government policy-forming processes. It focuses attention on the structural components of government institutions which shape the direction of policy formation and its delivery. In this article, the author discusses how institutional models of government decision-making may be adapted to parliamentary systems of government. This approach has some merit because it rescues analysis of government processes from models based on the US constitutional system.     

AN ETHICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE USE OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AS A TOOL OF FOREIGN POLICY

This paper is the third in a series of articles that examines the shortcomings of economic sanctions. Drawing on Mill's utilitarianism, Kant's categorical imperative and Rawls's theory of justice, the conceptual frameworks of consequentialism, deontology and contractualism are used to demonstrate the unethical nature of this increasingly popular instrument of foreign policy.     

INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE OF THE INTERNET: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Economists have long recognised that government may serve as a vehicle to create and maintain monopoly power and hence generate economic rents for a favoured few. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) has a government-provided monopoly of the allocation of top-level domains (TLDs) on the A-root server and so generates economic rents. The A-root server is the only computer network that links registered TLDs to the Internet. This paper uses insights of the economics of regulation and rent seeking to explain how existing technology may bypass ICANN and thus restore a competitive market in domain names.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF KNOWLEDGE: THE HISTORY OF THOUGHT AND THE CENTRAL THEMES

Following the development of knowledge economies, there has been a rapid expansion of economic analysis of knowledge, both in the context of technological knowledge in particular and decision theory in general. This paper surveys this literature by identifying the main themes and contributions, and outlines the future prospects of the discipline. The wide scope of knowledge‐related questions in terms of applicability and alternative approaches has led to the fragmentation of research. Nonetheless, one can identify an enduring quest for analyzing various aspects of the generation, dissemination and use of knowledge in the economy.     

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND POLICY

Patrick Foley agrees with Tim Congdon on the unimportance of the current account and with Patrick Minford on the economy's medium-term growth prospects.     

STOCK‐FLOW INTERACTIONS,DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMICS AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper presents the ‘KMGT’ (Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin–Tobin) portfolio model and studies its stability properties. The approach to macrodynamic modelling taken here extends the KMG model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) , focusing in particular on the incorporation of financial markets and policy issues. The original KMG model considered three asset markets (equities, bonds and money) but depicted them in a rudimentary way so that they had little influence on the real side of the model. The only financial market influencing the real side of the economy was the money market (via an LM curve theory of interest). Here Tobin's portfolio choice theory models the demand for each asset in such a way that the total amount of assets that households want to hold equals their net wealth, which is a stock constraint attached to portfolio choice. There is also a flow constraint, that the net amount of assets accumulated (liabilities issued) by one sector must equal its net savings (expenditures). The Tobinian macroeconomic portfolio approach characterizes the potential for financial market instability, focusing on the interconnectedness of all three markets. The paper goes on to study the potential for labour market and fiscal policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomies.     

THE IMPACT OF ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY ON EDUCATION SPENDING: A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF UNITED STATES SCHOOL DISTRICTS

In the public finance literature it is well understood that a community's spending can be affected by neighboring communities’ spending. It is relatively straightforward to see why these spillovers exist. For example, if a school district increases its spending on public education, this could affect the spending level of neighboring school districts. This paper uses spatial analysis to test the hypothesis that a school district's ethnic heterogeneity affects support for public education. Using a Spatial Lag Model and a national panel of U.S. school districts, I find that spatial dependence does exist in the data and that ethnic heterogeneity is negatively related to school district spending.     

LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS AND POLICY OPTIONS: THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY

As part of the shift in emphasis in environmental policy from clean-up to avoidance, environmental policy instruments that specify preferred technological directions for an industry are increasingly being used. Take-back requirements and mandatory recycling are cases in point. These directly affect the mix of materials and the technologies used by an industry. These effects reverberate throughout the industry and influence market conditions for everyone both up- and downstream in the supplier/client chains. As these chains frequently cross international frontiers, environmental policy-making is becoming increasingly significant in influencing competitive structures and international trade patterns. Concerns are that policy-making may lock in inappropriate technologies and that the policy process may be manipulated for industrial or trading advantage. Using fibre recycling in the European pulp and paper sector as a case study, it is shown how these concerns are manifest and also that materials accounting and operational research techniques exist to mitigate them. It is concluded that there is a need to establish agreed environmental impact evaluation methodologies to provide guidance on the robustness of policy-making and a basis for consistent, predictable and defensible policy-making.     

LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS FOR ECONOMIC POLICY MAKING

Abstract In this paper, we assess the scope and the specific contribution of laboratory experiments for economic policy making. We review experiments which have addressed a specific problem, institution, mechanism design or tool relevant in economic policy. We have two research questions. What type of policy questions can be addressed in the laboratory? And what is the specific value added of economic experiments for policy making. The survey contains experiments on competition policy, auctions, regulated markets, and emission permits.     

ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

This paper demonstrates that fiscal policy is an effective and essential instrument of stabilisation macroeconomic policy. This is particularly so if it is co-ordinated with monetary policy, especially in the current worldwide economic situation.     

ON THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Spending depends on the quantity of money. If an increase in the budget deficit is financed by sales of government debt to non-banks, the quantity of money is unchanged and public borrowing 'crowds out' private spending. But – if the government finances its deficit (or buybacks of existing debt) from the banks – the quantity of money, and hence spending and national income increase.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BASED ON RECTANGULAR SUPPLY-USE TABLES

This paper formalises the so-called Supply-Use Based Econometric (SUBE) approach that allows for the introduction of econometric analysis in the calculation of backward input–output multipliers of the Leontief-type quantity model, using rectangular supply and use tables. The SUBE approach does not require any kind of inverse matrix and incorporates the traditional approach (with square supply-use tables) as a particular case. The empirical analysis shows that the SUBE carbon dioxide multipliers for the EU27 are considerably lower than those obtained by the traditional Leontief inverse. In an application of the SUBE approach, the European economy appears to emit about 10% less carbon dioxide than in a situation in which it would not import any intermediate inputs from outside the EU27.