The Impact of APROC on Taiwan's Economy: A CGEAnalysis of Deregulation

The Taiwan Government defines the Asia-Pacific Regional Operations Center (APROC) project as designed 'to transform Taiwan into a regional economic center through overall liberalization and internationalization'. From this definition and the targets of APROC as set by the Taiwan Government, it is not difficult to see that deregulation is one of the basic means of achieving its goals. In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the possible effects of this deregulation. The effects of deregulation on the economy go through four channels in the model: (i) deregulation liberalizes the market; (ii) deregulation moderates factor market distortion; (iii) deregulation attracts foreign investment, speeds up capital accumulation and enlarges capital stock in Taiwan; and (iv) deregulation attracts foreign investment and hence improves technology. Six simulations are conducted in this paper. All of the simulations show positive effects on Taiwan's economy as a whole, while for individual sectors the effects are various.     

Do Firms Time Their Pollution Abatement Investments Optimally?

In this paper we develop an equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean and dirty (polluting) plants. We conclude that the best time to implement cleaner production technologies is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands, and the USA. It appears that for more than 25 per cent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show significant counter-cyclical behaviour, while in 10 per cent of the sectors these investments are pro-cyclical.     

Short-run energy-economy interactions in Egypt

This paper discusses the short-run adjustment mechanism of the Egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil. The effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short-run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy. The results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation, fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses. The analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors.     

Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU

The objective of this paper is to apply a modified gravity model to annual exports disaggregated by sector, from MERCOSUR + Chile to the 15 current members of the EU. In doing so, we aimed to classify sectors according to their sensitivity to geographical and economic distance and to identify which commodities enjoy export strength even without further progress in trade liberalisation with the EU. In the estimation we made use of two additional explanatory variables which are found to be relevant when explaining trade, namely, infrastructure and exchange rates. An exchange rate index is built that takes into account protection. Our results support the view that different sectors have a different sensitivity to distance and highlight the importance of using disaggregated data when analysing international trade flows.     

The poverty trap: The dual externality model and its policy implications

This paper analyzes poverty traps in a monopolistic competition general equilibrium model with aggregate demand externality. In our model, the central hypothesis is represented by the introduction of externalities in fixed costs that firms have to incur in order to industrialize as a spillover across sectors. By this we mean that the fixed cost incurred by a firm in order to start production can reduce the fixed cost that firms in other sectors of the economy must incur. With such an assumption, we can show the possibility for an economy to be locked in at different stages of development. We then proceed to discuss the policy implications and the possible role for government intervention. To this end we provide a potential framework of reference that, if properly developed, may be useful in policy design.     

Dynamics of the energy intensity of the Russian economy in 2006–2007 and projections of the energy consumption

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the energy intensity in the sequential chain of hierarchically interconnected levels of the Russian Federation’s economy in 2006–2007, i.e., GDP segments of the economy’s technological processes sectors. In terms of the energy consumption projection, 2006 and 2007 present an extremely interesting example of the changing impulsive character of the growth of the demand for electric energy under intensively growing domestic and foreign demand for products of energy intensive sectors of the Russian Federation. The year of 2006 demonstrated a high growth of the per unit GDP and a very high growth of energy consumption under fast growing internal and external demand for energy intensive products; the year of 2007 showed a still higher growth of the GDP at a sharply curtailed growth of the energy consumption, and the rate of decline of the GDP energy intensity almost doubled. The comparative analysis of 2006 and 2007 can help one to understand what can underlie the changed energy consumption in the country in the period of the world crisis and after its end.     

能源格与中国宏观经济:动态模型与校准分析价

能源价格的上涨和大幅度波动对中国宏观经济的影响日益凸显,探讨能源价格波动的传导机制,研究能源价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响具有很强的现实意义.本文首先分析中国宏观经济的一些特征事实,其次在实际经济周期模型中引入能源价格冲击,建立能源价格波动影响宏观经济的动态随机一般均衡模型,将模型参数校准到和中国经济发展的特征事实相一致,并比较模型经济和实际经济的接近程度.分析结果表明,引入能源价格冲击后,实际经济周期模型对真实经济的模拟效果相当理想.能源价格冲击的初始效应大于技术冲击;技术冲击持续的时间比能源价格冲击更长     

Endogenous Comparative Advantages in Developing Economies

This paper focusses on endogenous comparative advantages in developing countries, in particular on labour reallocation from low-productivity informal sectors into high-productivity formal sectors. This mechanism is important for two reasons. First, it contributes to the growth potential of developing countries and the absorption capacity for further capital accumulation. Second, labour reallocation will keep developing economies specialized in low-skilled intensive products in the coming decades and it will keep the wages of low-skilled workers low. We analyse this mechanism by simulating an increase in the skill intensity of developing countries the coming decades. These simulations are carried out with WorldScan, a dynamic AGE model of the world economy. An increasing skill intensity in LDCs will stimulate the global supply of high-skilled intensive products more than the supply of low-skilled intensive products, but to a much lesser extent than one would expect in static analyses or in absence of informal sectors.     

安徽省旅游商品开发初步研究

旅游商品是旅游业中"购"的重要组成部分,加强和加快旅游商品发展,大力进行旅游商品的设计、开发、生产与销售,是优化旅游产品结构、提高旅游经济效益、保障旅游业持续健康发展的重要途径之一.文章通过对安徽省旅游商品发展现状与存在问题的分析,提出了安徽省旅游商品开发的基本思路,以期有利于促进安徽省旅游商品的发展.     

Structural adjustment, macroeconomic adjustment and poverty: A methodology for analysis

The object of this paper is to set out a methodology for analyzing the impact on the poor in less developed countries (LDCs) of adjustment to disturbances arising in the international sectors sectors of these economies. The methodology is not based on a detailed general equilibrium model of the whole economy, but instead focuses on the effects of the adjustment process on the sectoral composition of national output and expenditure. The paper provides a framework for the calculation of quantitative estimates of the impact of adjustment on poverty using household income and expenditure surveys currently available in LDCs. It is proposes the use of decomposable poverty indices as a tractable vehicle for calculating the impact of adjustment on overall poverty. This framework does require, however, reasonably disaggregated data on income distribution.     

Information economy and inequality: Wage polarization,unemployment, and occupation transition in Taiwan since 1980

This paper examines whether Taiwan’s economic inequality has worsened as Taiwan has evolved into an information economy, a transformation which began around 1980. The paper explores this relationship by investigating three specific research questions. First, has there been a rise in wage inequality in Taiwan since 1980; and if so, what are the sources of this rise in inequality? Second, has the transition to an information economy contributed to a rise in unemployment rates? And third, what type of occupational structural transformation occurred during this transition? The paper shows that since 1980, wage inequality, unemployment, and the white-collar–blue-collar worker employment ratio have all sharply increased in Taiwan. Furthermore, the reasons for these changes seem closely related to the relative growth of the information economy.     

Effects of Trade Liberalization on Taiwan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Joining the GATT has been established as one of the most important economic and political targets of the Taiwan government. However, the effects of this action are difficult to establish. Because of the openness of Taiwan's domestic market there could be serious changes in the production structure and income distribution, especially in the relative status of the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, of protected and unprotected sectors, and also of producers and consumers. The possible high cost of this move on society has caused its necessity to be questioned. In order to clear up the controversy surrounding this issue, this paper, uses a CGE model to analyse the possible effects of this policy change. Following proposals from the Final Draft of the Uruguay Round, we use tariff and nontariff barriers, aggregate measurement of support (AMS), and export quota in our model as policy tools. We omit liberalization in the service sector, because of quantification difficulties. Our analysis includes the impacts on resource allocation, production structure, income distribution and consumers' welfare.     

经济一体化下中国贸易自由化调整成本实证研究——以中国和澳大利亚自贸区建立为例

在国际经济一体化背景下,本文从边际产业内贸易的分析角度对中国和澳大利亚贸易自由化调整成本进行实证分析。首先采用A指数对1992～2008年两国23个主要工业部门的边际产业内贸易水平进行测度,然后分别采用B指数比率和S指数比率对两国主要工业部门的贸易绩效和贸易自由化调整成本进行测度,最终得到一致结论:中国主要工业部门的贸易绩效整体较好,贸易自由化调整成本相对较小,但仍需进一步改善;"中高技术密集型制造品"行业调整成本低于"初级产品"和"劳动力和资源密集型制造品"行业;大部分"中高技术密集型制造品"行业的贸易自由化调整成本呈现明显下降趋势等。     

Development of preliminary tourism satellite accounts for Namibia

In Namibia, as in many countries, reliable and accurate information regarding the economic impact of tourism has not been available. In an attempt to overcome this problem, a set of preliminary tourism satellite accounts for Namibia has been constructed using currently available data. Such accounts are designed to accurately determine the size and importance of the tourism industry within an economy. The accounts present information including the supply of, and expenditure on, tourism commodities, as well as gross value added of, and employment within, the tourism industry. The limitations of the data used are identified, and recommendations to improve both data quality and quantity are made. Opportunities to improve these accounts in the future and the importance of such accounts in policy making are outlined. The development of a comprehensive set of accounts is feasible, and the potential for their use in policy making and economic analysis is great.     

The effect of technological factors and structural change on China's energy intensity: Evidence from dynamic panel models

To accurately understand the characteristic of energy intensity evolution by building a united framework, this paper evaluates the linear effects of the main technological factors and structural change on energy intensity from an overall perspective and a regional comparison perspective. The empirical analysis is based on a panel dataset including China's 30 provincial regions. The results suggest that domestic research and development (R&D) plays a more important role in energy intensity reduction than other technological factors. The technology spillover through foreign direct investment helps reduce the energy intensity, whereas export's technology spillover actually exhibits as a stain for China to reduce the energy intensity. Regarding the structural change, the transition from high energy-consumption industrial sectors to low energy-consumption industrial sectors plays a more important role in influencing energy intensity than simple industrialisation. The regional comparison perspective indicates that there are significant regional differences between China's Eastern, Central, and Western regions. Further estimates using the dynamic panel threshold model suggest that the local technological absorptive capacity, such as domestic R&D, is crucially responsible for these different technical effects.     

An Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedure for South Africa

This paper applies a factor‐augmented Markov‐switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle and its turning points. In the principal components step, 123 variables are used to establish the aggregate cyclicality in all sectors of the economy with the number of factors chosen using a modified Bai and Ng method. By exploiting the rich nature of the dataset, we provide a model with well‐defined statistical properties that compares favourably with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) dating points. Combining the results of the parametric approach followed in the Markov‐switching model and the non‐parametric approach followed by the SARB should allow for a robust turning point analysis. A Markov‐switching model of real gross domestic product is also estimated because this variable is commonly used in the literature and provides a benchmark for the factor models.     

Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and Application for the Turkish Economy

In this paper, we use results of a novel survey covering 1,000 firms from 16 different sectors of the Turkish economy along with a two‐sector dynamic general equilibrium model to measure the extent of informality in these sectors. Moreover, we also evaluate the effects of two different policy tools on informality, namely, income taxes and tax enforcement. Our results show that while both are effective policy tools in dealing with informality, tax enforcement is a relatively more efficient tool and tax becomes quite ineffective at lower levels of informality.     

中国汇率政策与货币政策的搭配研究

为了解决中国由于物价总水平持续上涨所产生的宏观经济内部失衡,以利率为主要工具的货币政策今年以来出现频繁变动。而用于解决由于外贸持续顺差所带来的外部失衡的人民币汇率政策却并没有及时地进行调整。因此,对中国货币政策和人民币汇率政策搭配是否合理的研究就成为实现中国宏观经济内外均衡的重要课题。本文就这一主题展开讨论并进行了实证分析,最后提出了改善这两大经济政策搭配的对策建议。     

Agricultural growth multipliers for two communal areas of KwaZulu-Natal

Expenditure data were collected from 99 households in two rural areas of KwaZulu-Natal. District and wealth group expenditure analyses suggest a less-than-proportional increase in the demand for tradable farm commodities, and a more-than-proportional increase in the demand for non-tradable farm commodities following a 1 per cent increase in household expenditure. Expenditure on non-farm tradables (imported consumer durables) showed the greatest potential for demand growth, with expenditure elasticities ranging from 1,75 to 2,59. An increase of R1,00 in household income is predicted to add an additional 28 cents (multiplier of 1,28) to the local economy. The study estimates relatively weak growth linkages. However, even relatively weak growth linkages could lead to much needed new income and employment opportunities in the local farm and non-farm sectors if the constraints limiting agriculture, and hence broad-based growth in rural incomes, are alleviated. Agriculture-led growth in South Africa requires public investment in both physical and institutional infrastructure to reduce transaction costs and risks in all markets, thus encouraging greater participation by local entrepreneurs and private sector investors. In addition, the roles, functions and services offered by extension agents should be extended to promote collective marketing, facilitate land rental contracts and provide training, technical and business support for farm and non-farm entrepreneurs.     

Convergence in food consumption in Rural China: Evidence from household survey data

The aims of this paper are to propose an econometric model for studying consumption convergence, to apply the model to a set of panel data from China, and to discuss various implications of research results. Major findings of the paper include (a) conditional convergence is confirmed for total grain, fine grain, edible oil, poultry, aquatic product, and sugar; (b) animal fat and red meat exhibit consumption divergence; (c) rising income inequality and underdevelopment of market are identified to be obstacles to consumption convergence; and (d) for commodities that converge, the speed of convergence is slow.