Explorations’ contribution to the ‘Asian Century’

This paper very briefly surveys current research on Asian economic development, and also discusses several recent papers on the contributions of economic history to understanding development. I then review the contributions of the papers in this special volume of Explorations in light of these two literatures.     

房地产调控与全要素生产率:“事半功倍”或“事与愿违”

现有研究表明高房价会降低全要素生产率（TFP）,在"稳房价、稳预期"的调控思路下,房地产调控能否缓解高房价对TFP的抑制作用呢？文章构建包含房地产部门和最终产品部门的理论模型,探讨房价和房地产调控对全要素生产率的非对称影响。在实证检验部分,测算2008-2018年152个地级及以上城市的房地产调控强度,采用门槛回归检验房价和房地产调控对全要素生产率的影响,研究结果表明：（1）合理的房价有利于TFP增长,但过高的房价阻碍了TFP增长。（2）房地产调控力度较弱时对TFP的影响为负,房地产调控力度适中时对TFP的影响为正且效果最佳,将房地产调控区分为需求侧调控和供给侧调控,需求侧调控由弱转强时对TFP的影响由负转正,供给侧调控对TFP的影响始终为正。（3）房地产调控通过影响公众房价预期进而对TFP产生影响。     

Explaining the ‘take‐off’ of the Catalan cotton industry1

Cotton was central to Catalan industrialization and, within cotton, progress in spinning and weaving, originating in the late eighteenth century, provided the cutting edge in the industry's modernization. This article tests the current orthodoxy concerning the timing and causes of this breakthrough. It does so by first evaluating what were external influences on the success‐government policy, the elasticity of supply of spun yarn (a potential disincentive) and of raw cotton‐and then providing an analytical narrative of the advance first in hand and then mechanical spinning. On this basis a conclusion is reached that government policy was more advantageous to the development than posited in the current orthodoxy, that elasticity in the supply of spun yarn slowed the transition and that, though growing availability of American cotton eased the transition, the key to the development is to be found within the Catalan economy, experiencing a 'Smithian'‐type growth process in the eighteenth century, within which industrialization of cotton was nearly the last achievement before Spain's severe 'old régime crisis' curtailed economic opportunity.     

解析网络新词“屌丝”

近年来,网络新词“屌丝”一词在年轻人中更是迅速流传,甚至成了某种人群的代名词.分析“屌丝”一词的含义和产生原因入手, “屌丝”一词的社会价值是凸显社会矛盾,带动相关产业发展,为社会创造新的经济价值;从文化价值看,“屌丝”形成的文化是年轻一代网民寻求建立其独立的语言交际社团与社会角色认同的一种途径,反映出社会变革背后的时代特征和精神面貌.“屌丝”一词的语言价值是催生新词语,揭示网络词汇的语体变异现象.     

中国企业“逆周期”跨国并购研究

"新常态"经济周期中,中国企业跨国并购有何特征?从经济政策频繁波动的现实出发,如何理解跨国并购的"逆周期"成因?文章基于2001-2016年中国企业对91个国家的跨国并购数据,实证检验了经济周期、经济政策不确定性对跨国并购的影响,得出以下结论：首先,中国企业的跨国并购具有显著的"逆周期"特征,下行经济周期加剧了并购规模提升;其次,经济政策不确定性与跨国并购正相关,并且在国有企业中和2008年金融危机后表现为更明显;最后,经济政策不确定性差距以及市场增长潜力差距均提升了并购规模。     

“河长制”能实现地方政府跨域间的协同治理吗——基于“碎片化治理”的视角

"河长制"这一创新政策试图通过河长之间的沟通协调来有效实现水污染治理目标，但该政策能否有效解决因流域治理的跨域特征而导致的碎片化管辖和协同治理困境，现有文献对此尚未予以关注。文章首先利用博弈模型和逻辑推演阐释了碎片化治理本身对水污染治理及对河长制政策实施效果的潜在影响，进而基于2007-2018年中国七大流域覆盖的干流县域数据，结合中国生态环境部实施的国家重点监控点的水质数据，对提出的理论假说进行了系统的实证检验。结果显示，我国的流域治理中确实存在明显的碎片化问题，且主要集中在中上游地区，原因在于中上游地区多为经济欠发达地区，其占优策略为被动等待，而下游地区主要为经济发达地区，其占优策略为主动治理，导致下游监管较强、中上游监管较弱而出现污染产业"逆流而上"的现象。同时，河长制能产生水污染治理改善的效果，但尚未解决跨区域协同治理困境，这也正是目前实施的河长制政策的主要局限，亟需后续推行过程中的进一步完善。文章揭示了河长制治理过程中的跨区域碎片化导致的协同治理困境问题，并为此问题提供了实证依据，有利于政府在执行过程中重点关注跨区域的协同合作治理，为政府进一步建立跨区域的河长制协同治理制度提供了决策依据。     

现代服务业的“重庆高度”

在渝中半岛300米的高空,风呼啸着从耳边经过. 从正在建设中的重庆环球金融中心第64层举目远眺,解放碑CBD核心区一栋栋大厦鳞次栉比,繁华而充满生机;长江与嘉陵江宛若玉带般蜿蜒交汇,大桥横亘南北;远处可目及江北嘴…… 这里是渝中之巅,也是今天渝中发展高度的象征. 而在脚下,一场加快建设渝中都市功能核心区的战役已经打响.现代服务业核心区,成为城市中心功能突破的动力和活力所在.     

Bimetallism: The “rules of the game”

Based on historical evidence found in Juglar and Bonnet that over the Bimetallic period French and British central banks did co-operate when using their discount rates as policy instruments for currency stabilization, we test whether Bimetallism was a regulated system or not. Our revised story of Bimetallism contrasts the existing literature which identifies this regime as a self-equilibrating system, constrained by specie points.     

袁隆平与资本市场的“优势杂交”

“杂交水稻之父”袁隆平以研究水稻的优势杂交为毕生事业，历来与资本市场井水不犯河水。然而，随着市场经济的发展，他的优势杂交实践，又延伸到了新的领域，甚至，他自身与资本市场的“优势杂交”也开始了。 　　袁隆平通过与资本市场的“优势杂交”，一夜之间成为亿万富翁 　　袁隆平与资本市场的“优势杂交”，是从他与一家农业高科技公司的合作开始的。 1999年 1月 3日、 1999年 9月 27日，袁隆平分别与隆平高科（袁隆平农业高科技股份有限公司， 0998）筹备委员会和隆平高科签定《协议书》和《补充协议书》约定，同意在股份公司存续期…     

Building the <Emphasis Type="Italic">New</Emphasis> New Orleans: Foundation and NGO Power

Most accounts of organized philanthropy’s response to the Katrina disaster portray foundations as either providing critical resources in the absence of federal, state, and municipal leadership, or as mildly ineffective and uncommitted grantmakers with little understanding of local nonprofit and community needs. Through an in-depth case study of the three largest regional foundations and two largest foundations established as a direct response to Hurricane Katrina, I examine the overall role of philanthropy in the post-Katrina New Orleans, including the history, leadership, grantmaking practices, and ideology of the largest and most influential foundations. Far from being saviors in the absence of state leadership, nor bumbling and ineffective grantmakers, it is shown that dominant foundations and major NGOs have proven very effective in leading the local growth coalition’s opportunistic response to the disaster.     

‘Stop‐go’ policy and the restriction of postwar British house‐building

From the mid‐1950s to the early 1980s the Treasury and the Bank of England successfully advocated a policy of restricting both private and public sector house‐building, as a key but covert instrument of their wider ‘stop‐go’ macroeconomic policy framework. While the intensity of restrictions varied over the economic cycle, private house‐building was restricted (through limiting mortgage availability) for almost all this period. This was achieved by keeping building society interest rates low relative to other interest rates and thus starving the building society movement of mortgage funds. Mortgage restriction was never publicly discussed and sometimes operated alongside ambitious housing targets and well‐publicized policy initiatives to boost housing demand. This article outlines the evolution of house‐building restriction, together with its impacts on the housing sector and the wider economy. We review the evolution of the policy framework and its consequences, compare the level and stability of British house‐building during this period—historically and relative to other countries—and undertake time‐series econometric analysis of its impacts on both house‐building and house prices. Finally, implications for debates regarding stop‐go policy, Britain's housing problem, and the distributional consequences of government macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

Bagehot for beginners: the making of lender‐of‐last‐resort operations in the mid‐nineteenth century1

In this article we develop new tools to survey the development of lending‐of‐last‐resort operations in the mid‐nineteenth century. One finding is that free lending and extensive liquidity support against good collateral developed gradually after 1847, and was already a fact of life before Bagehot published Lombard Street. Another is that the extension of the Bank of England's lender‐of‐last‐resort function went along with a reduction of its exposure to default risks, in contrast with accounts that have associated lending of last resort with moral hazard. Finally, we provide a new interpretation of the ‘high rates’ advocated by Bagehot. We suggest they were meant to prevent banks from free‐riding on the safety offered by the central bank, and were aimed at forcing them to keep lending during crises so as to maintain a critical degree of liquidity in the money market.