Market structure, informational efficiency and liquidity: An experimental comparison of auction and dealer markets

We report the results of 18 market experiments that were conducted in order to compare the call market, the continuous auction and the dealer market. Transaction prices in the call and continuous auction markets are much more efficient than prices in the dealer markets. The call market shows a tendency towards underreaction to new information. Execution costs are lowest in the call market and highest in the dealer market. The trading volume and Roll's (Journal of Finance (1984) 1127–1139) serial covariance estimator are inappropriate measures of execution costs in the present context. The relation between private signals, trading decisions and trading profits is analyzed.     

The Interrelation of Stock and Options Market Trading-Volume Data

This research empirically investigates the relation between common stock and call option trading volumes. The paper hyothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets. If information trading for CBOE-listed firms is predominantly accomplished through option trading, then existing research methodologies may be biased against finding any significant economic consequences in those instances where option listing is an important variable. Results indicate that trading in call options leads trading in the underlying shares, with a one-day lag.     

On the distribution and estimation of trading costs

This paper investigates the uncertainty about the trading costs associated with a given portfolio strategy. I derive accurate approximations of the ex ante probability distributions of proportional trading costs and portfolio turnover under the conventional assumption of normal asset returns. Based on these approximations, I express the expected trading costs as a function of asset and portfolio characteristics. All else equal, the expected trading costs increase with: i) the deviations of the expected asset returns from the expected portfolio return, ii) the assets' volatility and iii) the portfolio volatility. At the same time, they decrease with the covariance between the assets and the portfolio. Furthermore, I propose novel estimators of the expected turnover and trading costs and show that they offer small bias and low variance, even when the sample size is small. Finally, I incorporate my results into a portfolio selection framework to produce portfolios with low levels of risk and trading costs. Several experiments with real and simulated data confirm the practical value of the results.     

Volume,volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets

This paper examines the relationship between option trading activity and stock market volatility. Although the option market is uniquely suited for trading on volatility information, there is little analysis on how trading activity in this market is linked to stock price volatility. The bulk of the discussion tends to focus on whether trading activity in the stock market is informative about stock volatility. To analyze the information in option trading activity for stock market volatility, a sample of 15 stocks with the highest option trading volume is selected. For each stock, it is noted that the trading activities in the put and call option markets have significant explanatory power for stock market volatility. In addition, the results indicate that the call option trading activity has a stronger impact on stock volatility compared with that of the put options. Our results demonstrate that information and sentiment in the option market is useful for the estimation of stock market volatility. Also, the significance of the effects of option trading activity on stock price volatility is observed to be comparable to that of stock market trading activity. Furthermore, the persistence and asymmetric effects in the volatility of some stocks tend to disappear once option trading activity is taken into account.     

Does Anticipated Information Impose a Cost on Risk‐Averse Investors? A Test of the Hirshleifer Effect

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates how the risk of future adverse price changes created by the anticipated arrival of information influences risk‐averse investors’ trading decisions in institutionally imperfect capital markets. Specifically, I examine how the selling activity of individual investors immediately following an earnings announcement is influenced by the tradeoff between risk‐sharing benefits of immediate trade and explicit transaction costs imposed on such trades. Consistent with my theoretically derived predictions, I find that investors’ current trading decisions are less sensitive to the incremental transaction costs created by short‐term capital gains taxes on trading profits, as both the duration and intensity of the risk of future adverse price changes increase. This evidence is consistent with an incremental cost to investors that results from the revelation of precise information, which is commonly referred to as the Hirshleifer Effect.     

Continuous Trading or Call Auctions: Revealed Preferences of Investors at the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

We use the move of Israeli stocks from call auction trading to continuous trading to show that investors have a preference for stocks that trade continuously. When large stocks move from call auction to continuous trading, the small stocks that still trade by call auction experience a significant loss in volume relative to the overall market volume. As small stocks move to continuous trading, they experience an increase in volume and positive abnormal returns because of the associated increase in liquidity. Overall, though, a move to continuous trading increases the volume of large stocks relative to small stocks.     

The Timing of Opening Trades and Pricing Errors

After demonstrating that a zero investment trading strategy that buys stocks with overnight returns below the market average and sells stocks with overnight returns above the market average earns more than 1% monthly profit, I demonstrate that this profit is greater for stocks that start trading more quickly than for other stocks. These results control for trading costs. The resulting pricing errors are a material portion of stock price volatility and suggest that a quick response to overnight information adds non‐information‐based stock volatility to stock prices.     

The Information Content of Insider Call Options Trading

We examine the information content of two forms of insider trading, insider buy-, and sell-call transactions. We find that the information carried by stand-alone call purchases has only a short-term impact on stock prices, but over a longer term, call purchases accompanied by stock purchases have a positive impact. Call purchases accompanied by stock sales signal negative information about the firm, suggesting that some insiders use complicated trading strategies to manipulate the market. Insider sell-call transactions are followed by negative returns, indicating these transactions are driven by negative information about the firm.     

The Impact of Information Diffusion on Comparisons among Various Trading Mechanisms

The information environment and investor order strategy are both important determinants when comparing the market performance of trading mechanisms. However, less is known about what happens when trading mechanisms are compared. In this paper, we link the information environment, trading mechanisms, investor order strategy and market performance to form a model of the securities market. The primary goal of this study is to examine the impact of various call markets in an agency market on liquidity, price volatility and market efficiency under various information regimes. The results indicate that an optimal transaction frequency appears at the trade-off of liquidity, volatility and market efficiency.     

Assessing the relevance of an information source to trading from an adaptive-markets hypothesis perspective

I propose a framework motivated by the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) to analyze the relevance of a specific information source for the trading of a given security. To illustrate the applicability and advantages of this methodology, I explore the extent to which the financial statement (FS) is relevant for Credit Default Swap (CDS) trading. Specifically, I adopt a Bayesian Model Averaging approach to examine properties of the accounting metrics that enter the implied trading heuristics of the market participants. Hypothesis-testing is conducted on various horizons around the announcement dates of corporate results. The diversity of trading rules and the shift in the heuristics mix that occurred after 2008 support the AMH perspective. Overall, results show that there is a significant component of profit-motivated trading in the CDS market that relies on financial statement information, even after controlling for information transmission from alternative trading forums. Out of sample trading strategies confirm the robustness the main findings.     

The type of corporate announcements and its implication on trading behaviour

I report the empirical evidence to show how firms’ expected and unexpected announcements affect investors’ trading behaviour. I find that trading volume decreases before expected announcements, either scheduled or unscheduled, consistent with models that predict that discretionary liquidity traders may postpone their trading until after an anticipated news release. I also find that the magnitude of pre-announcement trading reactions is negatively associated with the level of pre-disclosure information asymmetry. I further find that trading volume is boosted before unexpected announcements, and the relation between the magnitude of pre-announcement trading reactions and the pre-disclosure information asymmetry is weakly significant or insignificant.     

Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange

In this paper, we set out to investigate the information content of options trading using a unique dataset to examine the predictive power of the put and call positions of different types of traders in the TAIEX option market. We find that options volume, as a whole, carries no information on TAIEX spot index changes. On the other hand, however, although foreign institutional investors do not engage in much trading, there is strong evidence to show that the trading in which they do engage has significant predictive power on the underlying asset returns. We also find that foreign institutional investors have greater predictive power with regard to in near-the-money and middle-horizon options.     

Does insider trading regulation deter private information trading? International evidence

Using a sample of 2189 firms from 21 countries we find that, on average, stricter insider trading regulations reduce private information trading. However, for firms with high agency costs, insider trading restrictions are less effective in deterring private information trading. We suggest that controlling shareholders who are banned from trading may resort to covert expropriation of firm resources thereby reducing transparency and increasing the returns to private information trading. Consistent with this, we find that firms with higher agency costs located in countries with stricter insider trading laws have more opaque earnings and are valued lower.     

Earnings conference calls and stock returns: The incremental informativeness of textual tone

Quarterly earnings conference calls are becoming a more pervasive tool for corporate disclosure. However, the extent to which the market embeds information contained in the tone (i.e. sentiment) of conference call wording is unknown. Using computer aided content analysis, we examine the incremental informativeness of quarterly earnings conference calls and the corresponding market reaction. We find that conference call linguistic tone is a significant predictor of abnormal returns and trading volume. Furthermore, conference call tone dominates earnings surprises over the 60 trading days following the call. The question and answer portion of the call has incremental explanatory power for the post-earnings-announcement drift and this significance is primarily concentrated in firms that do not pay dividends, illustrating differences in investor behavior based on the level of cash flow uncertainty. Additionally, we find that a context specific linguistic dictionary is more powerful than a more widely used general dictionary (Harvard IV-4 Psychosocial).     

Information shares of two parallel currency options markets: Trading costs versus transparency/tradability

This paper studies whether trading costs or transparency/tradability are more important to price discovery using a unique dataset of currency options that trade simultaneously in two parallel markets. The Over-The-Counter (OTC) market is characterized by sophisticated investors, low trading costs, and low transparency/tradability compared to the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). Pricing errors are much larger on the TASE and the information share of the OTC market is significantly larger than that of the TASE by various information share measures, showing that trading costs and trader type have a first-order effect on price discovery while transparency/tradability have a second-order effect.     

Corporate Bond Trading Costs: A Peek Behind the Curtain

In this paper, I use institutional corporate bond trade data to estimate transactions costs in the over-the-counter bond market. I find average round-trip trading costs to be about $0.27 per $100 of par value. Trading costs are lower for larger trades. Small institutions pay more to trade than large institutions, all else being equal. Small bond dealers charge more than large ones. I find no evidence that trading costs more for lower-rated bonds.     

Very fast money: High-frequency trading on the NASDAQ

This paper provides evidence regarding high-frequency trader (HFT) trading performance, trading costs, and effects on market efficiency using a sample of NASDAQ trades and quotes that directly identifies HFT participation. I find that HFTs engage in successful intra-day market timing, spreads are wider when HFTs provide liquidity and tighter when HFTs take liquidity, and prices incorporate information from order flow and market-wide returns more efficiently on days when HFT participation is high.     

The Effect of Option Trading on the Structure of Equity Bid/Ask Spreads

This paper investigates empirically the direct effect of option trading on the structure of costs that comprise the underlying equity bid-ask spread. Our results show that the spread declines over a 30-day period following initiation of option trading, but the decline vanishes when price, volume, and volatility effects are considered. Changes in the composition of the spread reflect primarily a reduction in adverse information costs. Additionally, consistent with previous research, we find significant transaction-type clustering in our intraday data.     

Intraday patterns in London listed Exchange Traded Funds

In this paper we examine the intraday trading patterns of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the London Stock Exchange. ETFs have been shown to be characterised by much lower bid–ask spread costs and by lower levels of information asymmetry than individual securities. One possible explanation for intraday trading patterns is that concentration of trading arises at the start of the trading day because informed traders have private information that quickly diminishes in value as trading progresses. Since ETFs have lower trading costs and lower levels of information asymmetry we would expect these securities to display less pronounced intraday patterns than individual securities. We fail to find that ETFs are characterised by concentrated trading bouts during the day and therefore find support for the argument that information asymmetry is the cause of intraday volume patterns in stock markets. We find that ETF bid–ask spreads and volatility are elevated at the open but not at the close. This lends support to the “accumulation of information” explanation that sees high spreads and volatility at the open as a consequence of information accumulating during a market closure and impacting on the market when it next opens.     

Information‐Hedging Disclosures and Insider Trading

I model the effect of disclosure on the tradeoff between information risk, liquidity risk, and price risk for a well‐informed, risk‐averse insider. Revealing some information before trading decreases the variability of the insider's information advantage and thus reduces his information risk. Disclosure also lowers adverse selection costs for market makers, which reduces the insider's liquidity risk by increasing his trading flexibility. However, disclosure increases price risk for the insider because the price fully reflects the revealed information. The reduction in information and liquidity risks outweigh the rise in price risk when the insider is less risk averse because a less risk‐averse insider's information‐based motive for trading is stronger than his hedging motive. The opposite relation holds when the insider is more risk averse. Therefore, a less (more) risk‐averse insider experiences an increase (decrease) in welfare when he discloses some information before trading. Cost of capital and policy implications are identified.