Household migration: theoretical and empirical results

A consumption theory of migration is developed which supplements the traditional job search models. Migration, seen as an equilibrating reaction to an initially non-optimal location, is analyzed using standard demand theory. When one groups goods into those that are traded between areas and those that are not (weather, racial discrimination, crime rates, etc.) it is clear that only changing demands for the non-traded goods will result in changing optimal locations (assuming supplies are fixed). Illustrating, an increase in family income might lead to an increased demand for the non-traded good “personal safety.” This might result, for example, in the substitution (through migration) of a lower crime suburban neighborhood for a higher crime central city neighborhood.An empirically testable implication of the model is that the probability of migration should be positively related to changes in the absolute value of those exogenous variables which lead to altered demands for non-traded goods. This and other hypotheses were examined using cross-sectional data in a nonlinear maximum likelihood (probit) regression analysis. The results strongly support the model and its implications.     

An elementary proposition on technical progress and non-traded goods

We explore the effect of technical progress on the endogenously determined range of non-traded goods by using a Ricardian model with continuum of goods. By defining technical progress on the basis of proportional changes in the relative productivity across sectors, we show that the range of non-traded goods decreases if technical progress is unbiased or if it is biased toward the goods that a country has more comparative advantage.     

Exchange Rates,Non-Traded Goods and the Terms Of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand

This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasize the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is an important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non-tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability tests andout-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on ‘real’ determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods supply and terms-of-trade.     

Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods

In this paper we study the implications of population ageing in an economy with a sizeable non-traded goods sector. To this effect a highly stylized micro-founded macro model is constructed in which the age structure of the population plays a non-trivial role. The model distinguishes separate birth and death probabilities (thus allowing for net population change), allows for age-dependent labour productivity (thus mimicing life-cycle saving), and includes a rudimentary pension system (thus allowing for intergenerational redistribution). The model is used to analytically study demographic and pension shocks.     

The advantage of avoiding the Armington assumption in multi-region models

Most computable general equilibrium models that describe interactions between multiple regions employ the so-called Armington assumption that goods that are produced in different regions are imperfect substitutes for each other. The paper describes an alternative algorithm based on the assumption of perfect substitutability that accommodates the observation that each region produces all traded goods. For models with many regions and less-that-perfectly mobile factors, the alternative algorithm greatly reduces convergence time. The algorithm is illustrated by comparing two static multi-region models of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, with and without the Armington assumption. The model without the Armington assumption is then extended to a dynamic 51-region model with agents that have perfect foresight over 6 periods.     

OPTION PRICING AND IMPLICIT VOLATILITIES1

Abstract. This paper demonstrates that Black-Scholes implied volatilities can be used to value options in many situations where the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model are violated, including (i) alternative stock processes, (ii) stochastic interest rates, and (iii) market frictions. Given its computational simplicity, this procedure provides an attractive alternative to the more complex models with a direct estimation procedure.     

BAYESIAN MODEL SELECTION AND FORECASTING IN NONCAUSAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation and forecasting procedure for noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. Specifically, we derive the joint posterior density of the past and future errors and the parameters, yielding predictive densities as a by‐product. We show that the posterior model probabilities provide a convenient model selection criterion in discriminating between alternative causal and noncausal specifications. As an empirical application, we consider US inflation. The posterior probability of noncausality is found to be high—over 98%. Furthermore, the purely noncausal specifications yield more accurate inflation forecasts than alternative causal and noncausal AR models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complexity results for the weak axiom of revealed preference for collective consumption models

The purpose of this paper is to establish the complexity of alternative versions of the weak axiom of revealed preference (warp) for collective consumption models. In contrast to the unitary consumption model, these collective models explicitly take the multi-member nature of the household into account. We consider the three collective settings that are most often considered in the literature. We start with the private setting in which all goods are privately consumed by the household members. Next, we consider the public setting in which all goods are publicly consumed inside the household. Finally, we also consider the general setting where no information on the (private or public) nature of goods consumed in the household is available. We prove that the collective version of warp is np-hard to test for both the private and public settings. Surprisingly, we also find for the general setting that the collective version of warp is easy to test for two-member households.     

Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test

This paper analyzes an approach to correcting spurious regressions involving unit-root nonstationary variables by generalized least squares (GLS) using asymptotic theory. This analysis leads to a new robust estimator and a new test for dynamic regressions. The robust estimator is consistent for structural parameters not just when the regression error is stationary but also when it is unit-root nonstationary under certain conditions. We also develop a Hausman-type test for the null hypothesis of cointegration for dynamic ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. We demonstrate our estimation and testing methods in three applications: (i) long-run money demand in the U.S., (ii) output convergence among industrial and developing countries, and (iii) purchasing power parity (PPP) for traded and non-traded goods.     

Bounds for the utility-indifference prices of non-traded assets in incomplete markets

Abstract We consider a special class of financial models with both traded and non-traded assets and show that the utility indifference (bid) price of a contingent claim on a non-traded asset is bounded above by the expectation under the minimal martingale measure. This bound also represents the marginal bid price for the claim. The key conclusion is that the bound and the marginal bid price are independent of both the utility function and initial wealth of the agent. Thus all utility maximising agents charge the same marginal price for the claim. This conclusion is in some sense the opposite conclusion to that of Hubalek and Schachermayer (2001), who show that any price is consistent with some equivalent martingale measure. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 91B16, 60J70 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G13     

Multiple equilibria in two-sector monetary economies: An interplay between preferences and the timing for money

In this paper, we study the occurrence of local indeterminacy in two-sector monetary economies. We consider a general MIUF model with two alternative timings in monetary payments: the Cash-In-Advance timing, in which the cash available to buy goods is money in the consumers’ hands after they leave the bond market but before they enter the goods market, and the Cash-After-the-Market timing, in which agents hold money for transactions after leaving the goods market. We consider three standard specifications of preferences: the additively separable formulation, the Greenwood–Hercovitz–Huffman (GHH) (Greenwood et al., 1988) formulation and the King–Plosser–Rebelo (KPR) (King et al., 1988) formulation. First, we show that for all the three types of preferences, local indeterminacy occurs under the CIA timing with a low enough interest rate elasticity of money demand. Second, we show that with the CAM timing, although determinacy always holds under separable preferences, local indeterminacy can occur with GHH and KPR preferences. We thus prove that compared to aggregate models, two-sector models provide new rooms for local indeterminacy when non-separable standard preferences are considered.     

企业逆向物流成本核算模型研究

对逆向物流作业流程及其成本构成进行了分析,并基于作业成本法,从产品的收集、检测分类、再加工、材料再生、产品拆卸、包装物和载运品回收、废弃物处理等作业流程出发,对收集、检测分类、再加工、材料再生、产品拆卸、废弃物处理6个环节涉及的成本进行核算,从而得出企业整个逆向物流的成本核算模型。     

Durable goods, inter-sectoral linkages and monetary policy

Durable goods pose a challenge for standard sticky-price models because the near constancy of their shadow value and their apparent price flexibility lead to perverse and counterfactual economic implications, such as the tendency of the durables and nondurables sectors to move in opposite directions following a monetary policy shock. This paper introduces input-output interactions and limited input mobility into an otherwise standard sticky-price model with durable and nondurable goods. The extended model generates substantial aggregate effects and positive sectoral comovement following a monetary policy shock, even when durable goods have flexible prices. The latter result is consistent with empirical evidence on the sectoral effects of monetary policy.     

Price and quantity competition among heterogeneous suppliers with two-part pricing: applications to clubs, local public goods, networks, and growth controls

Models of club goods, local public goods, and growth controls appear to have theoretical structures distinct from usual oligopoly models. This article shows, however, that they are special cases of a generalized oligopoly model that incorporates the possibility of two-part pricing and externalities between consumers (either congestion or network externalities). Our generalized two-part pricing model not only serves as a synthesis of a wide range of models but also allows us to obtain several new results on equilibrium prices. Another advantage of our model is that it can be interpreted as a reduced form of more complicated models that have spatial structures. This facilitates extension to the case where firms are heterogeneous and the number of firms is arbitrary.     

MANY INSTRUMENTS AND/OR REGRESSORS: A FRIENDLY GUIDE

This paper surveys the state of the art in the econometrics of regression models with many instruments or many regressors based on alternative – namely, dimension – asymptotics. We list critical results of dimension asymptotics that lead to better approximations of properties of familiar and alternative estimators and tests when the instruments and/or regressors are numerous. Then, we consider the problem of estimation and inference in the basic linear instrumental variables regression setup with many strong instruments. We describe the failures of conventional estimation and inference, as well as alternative tools that restore consistency and validity. We then add various other features to the basic model such as heteroskedasticity, instrument weakness, etc., in each case providing a review of the existing tools for proper estimation and inference. Subsequently, we consider a related but different problem of estimation and testing in a linear mean regression with many regressors. We also describe various extensions and connections to other settings, such as panel data models, spatial models, time series models, and so on. Finally, we provide practical guidance regarding which tools are most suitable to use in various situations when many instruments and/or regressors turn out to be an issue.     

Competitive equilibria in economies with multiple indivisible and multiple divisible commodities

In this paper we consider a general equilibrium model with a finite number of divisible and a finite number of indivisible commodities. In models with indivisibilities it is typically assumed that there is only one divisible good, which serves as money. The presence of money in the model is used to transfer the value of certain amounts of indivisible goods. For such economies with only one divisible commodity Danilov et al. showed the existence of a general equilibrium if the individual demands and supplies belong to a same class of discrete convexity. For economies with multiple divisible goods and money van der Laan et al. proved existence of a general equilibrium if the divisible goods are produced out of money using a linear production technology and no other producers are present in the model.     

Equilibrium models with land: A criticism and an alternative

Models of economies either of urban areas or with local public goods often involve the use of a continuum of consumers along with the use of a commodity called land; each consumer generally owns a parcel of land of positive area. The purpose of the present study is to show that such models are internally inconsistent (independent of the other assumptions employed) in that only countably many consumers can own parcels of land of non-zero area if land lies in a Euclidean space. This result applies, in particular, to monocentric city models. Moreover, it is shown that the standard justification for the use of economies with an infinity of agents, that they approximate large economies with a finite number of consumers, does not necessarily apply in the case of economies with land and a continuum of consumers. A model where land is represented by subsets of $\text{R}$² is presented as an alternative.     

OLIGOPOLY GAMES AND THE COURNOT–BERTRAND MODEL: A SURVEY

Traditional oligopoly models hold that firms compete in the same strategic variable, output (Cournot) or price (Bertrand). Alternatively, a hybrid model allows some firms to compete in output and other firms to compete in price, also known as the Cournot–Bertrand model. When the choice of strategic variable is endogenous, the established dominant strategy is output competition. A growing body of work demonstrates, however, that the Cournot–Bertrand outcome can be a subgame‐perfect Nash equilibrium in the presence of market asymmetries. Observations of real‐world markets consistent with Cournot–Bertrand behavior bolster justification for the model and have stimulated an impressive and evolving literature on advances and applications. We lay out the roots of the Cournot–Bertrand model and explore a number of model developments. We categorize 12 primary models in the literature based on alternative assumptions. In particular, some authors consider when the timing of play as well as the choice of strategic variable are endogenous. Altogether, this research identifies when Cournot–Bertrand behavior can emerge in a dynamic setting and under alternative market conditions. We also review the Cournot–Bertrand model applications in the fields of international economics, industrial organization, labor, and public economics. We expect the literature to continue to expand in the future.     

VOTING, INEQUALITY AND REDISTRIBUTION

Abstract.  This paper surveys models of voting on redistribution. Under reasonable assumptions, the baseline model produces an equilibrium with the extent of redistributive taxation chosen by the median income earner. If the median is poorer than average, redistribution is from rich to poor, and increasing inequality increases redistribution. However, under different assumptions about the economic environment, redistribution may not be simply rich to poor, and inequality need not increase redistribution. Several lines of argument are presented, in particular, political participation, public provision of private goods, public pensions, and tax avoidance or evasion.     

Joint tests for regularity and autocorrelation in allocation systems

In the context of allocation models with vector autoregressive errors we propose a convenient procedure, based on the Lagrange multiplier principle, for testing any possible combination of absence of serial correlation, homogeneity, and symmetry against any possible alternative which specifies autocorrelation of an arbitrary given order. We also derive generic expressions for the maximum likelihood estimation of the models under six possible combinations of constraints. The methodology is illustrated with the Rotterdam model and the differential AIDS model, both estimated from the same quarterly British data.