The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets

We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Decomposing the trade policy shocks further suggests that trade policy uncertainty dominates tariff level effects. Chinese trade policy shocks against the United States further hurt US stocks.     

战后美国城市发展的新特点

"二战"后,美国城市发展从原来的传统城市化,转入大规模的人口郊区化,郊区"卧城"大量产生.20世纪80年代以来,美国进入"后工业"社会城市发展时期,产生了"边缘城市"与"无边缘城市"等城市空间新类型,同时也面临资源、居住和社会经济等方面的问题.     

Social indicators and urban policy analysis

Although there are natural ties among the social indicators movement, productivity studies and urban service delivery research, these have been overlooked. This paper presents a systems framework involving policy variables, performance variables, state variables, citizen behaviors and citizen perceptions, and linking government with citizen subsystems. Four hypotheses derived from this framework are presented for assessing citizens' perceptions of local government performance and of the state of their municipality. Ultimately such a framework should be useful for setting local policy and evaluating its impact.     

The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time*

Although widely used in many areas of applied sciences, wavelet analysis has not fully entered the economic discipline yet. In this article we apply wavelet analysis to one of the most investigated relationships is in empirical macroeconomics: the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. Using US postwar data we find a frequency‐dependent relationship of a sort that is consistent with Phillips’ original insights. It also turns out that this relationship is remarkably stable over the 1948–93 period, but not in the aftermath, as a consequence of a process of adaption of the wage formation process to a low inflation environment.     

The end of public housing as we know it: public housing policy,labor regulation and the US city

In this article I argue that the US public housing policy, as codified by the Quality Housing and Work Responsibility Act of 1998 (QHWRA), is helping to reconfigure the racial and class structure of many inner cities. By promoting the demolition of public housing projects and replacement with mixed‐income housing developments, public housing policy is producing a gentrified inner‐city landscape designed to attract middle and upper‐class people back to the inner city. The goals of public housing policy are also broadly consonant with those of welfare reform wherein the ‘workfare’ system helps to bolster and produce the emergence of contingent low‐wage urban labor markets. In a similar manner, I argue that public housing demonstration programs, such as the ‘Welfare‐to‐Work’ initiative, encourage public housing residents to join the lowwage labor market. Although the rhetoric surrounding the demolition of public housing emphasizes the economic opportunities made available by residential mobility, I argue that former public housing residents are simply being relocated into private housing within urban ghettos. Such a spatial fix to the problems of unemployment and poverty will not solve the problems of inner‐city poverty. Will it take another round of urban riots before we seriously address the legacy of racism and discrimination that has shaped the US city? Cet article démontre que la politique du logement public américaine, telle que la réglemente la Loi de 1998, Quality Housing and Work Responsibility Act, contribue à remodeler la structure par races et classes de nombreux quartiers déshérités des centres‐villes. En favorisant la démolition d'ensembles de logements sociaux et leur remplacement par des complexes urbanisés à loyers variés, la politique publique génère un embourgeoisement des centres‐villes destinéà y ramener les classes moyennes et supérieures. Les objectifs de la politique du logement rejoignent largement ceux de la réforme sociale où le système de ‘l'allocation conditionnelle’ facilite et nourrit la création de marchés contingents du travail à bas salaires. De même, les programmes expérimentaux de logements publics, telle l'initiative Welfare‐to‐Work (De l'aide sociale au travail) poussent les habitants des logements sociaux à rejoindre le marchéde la main d'?uvre à bas salaires. Bien que les discours autour de la démolition des logements sociaux mettent en avant les ouvertures économiques créées par la mobilité résidentielle, leurs anciens habitants sont simplement en train d'être déplacés vers des logements privés situés dans des ghettos urbains. Ce genre de solution spatiale aux problèmes du chômage et de la pauvreté ne viendra pas à bout du dénuement des quartiers déshérités du centre. Faudra‐t‐il une autre série d'émeutes urbaines pour que l'on aborde sérieusement l'héritage de racisme et de discrimination qui a façonné les villes américaines?     

经济适用房政策绩效评析

利用帕累托最优和消费者(生产者)剩余理论对经济适用房建设的政策目标进行了经济学分析.依据我国31个城市的数据,通过测算价格、竣工量和空置率等指标,对城市经济适用房供给政策绩效进行了评价.研究结论可以为地方政府制定城市经济适用房政策提供依据.     

"大车轮"还是"小车轮":艰难的抉择

一、"车轮"的选择 近代文明是在车轮上发展的.如果离开了滚动的车轮,即离开了交通,文明的发展肯定会受到重大的阻碍.人们把历史的发展,比喻成历史的车轮向前滚动,是很贴切的.而城市的发展与车轮--交通的关系同样十分密切.众所周知,离开了车轮,城市就会瘫痪,因此城市的可持续发展,离不开车轮.     

Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US

We examine the FED’s monetary policy rule with financial stability considerations and under asymmetry. We use the National Financial Conditions Index constructed by the Chicago FED in order to test whether financial stability concerns enter monetary policy formulations in the US. We model nonlinearity in monetary policy by a Markov regime-switching model. The results show that the monetary policy implemented by the FED can be characterized as a two-state Markov process and financial instability significantly increases the likelihood of regime-switching from a “tranquil” to a “distressed” regime. Moreover, the likelihood of a switch in the FED’s monetary policy regime between tranquil and distressed seems to increase when a certain threshold level of the financial conditions index is reached. Finally, our results seem to be robust to alternative specifications of the reaction function and different forms of non-linearity.     

Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment

This paper investigates how monetary policy shock affects the stock market of the United States (US) conditional on states of investor sentiment. In this regard, we use a recently developed estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks, which in turn is achieved by integrating the current short-term rate surprises, which are least affected by an information effect, into a vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an exogenous variable. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, we find that, compared to the low investor sentiment regime, the negative reaction of stock returns to contractionary monetary policy shocks is stronger in the state associated with relatively higher investor sentiment. Our results are robust to alternative sample period (which excludes the zero lower bound) and model specification and also have important implications for academicians, investors, and policymakers.     

Sharing diseconomy: impact of the subsidy war of ride-sharing companies on urban congestion

ABSTRACT

As a typical example of the sharing economy, ride-sharing, in theory, can improve market efficiency and enhance the welfare of consumers and service suppliers. However, negative externalities resulted from ride-sharing, such as quasi-public goods, are often overlooked. In this paper, we used AutoNavi’s big data to measure traffic congestion in cities, and built DID, PSM-DID and DDD models to analyse the impact of the subsidy war among ride-sharing companies on the traffic congestion in Shanghai. The subsidy war led to an increase in the congestion index of Shanghai by 0.068–0.077, which was equivalent to an increase in transit time by 3.51%–5.53%. Excessive subsidies offered by ride-sharing companies to vie for market share will eventually distort the market. As a result, increased social costs will ultimately harm the well-being of the entire society, leading to diseconomy.     

战后西方城市规划理论的流变

西方的城市规划起源于解决 1 9世纪末资本主义工业城市的种种环境恶化问题和社会问题。在不同的历史发展阶段 ,城市规划作为城市公共事务的一个组成部分 ,在社会变革中扮演着不同的角色影响着社会。同时 ,城市规划也在逐步为社会所改造 ,其中城市规划思想的几个重要转变是 :第一 ,城市规划从“物质形体设计”转变到崇尚系统分析方法 (Ｓｙｓｔｅｍａｔｉｃａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ)的理性决策过程(Ｒａｔｉｏｎａｌｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｏｆｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ ｍａｋｉｎｇ)的科学性规划。第二 ,规划从“蓝图式”实质性规划逐步变为“过程中”规划 ,经过 7…     

The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought*

Existing studies on the impact of the euro on goods trade report increments between 5% and 40%. These estimates are based on standard panel gravity models for the level of trade. We show that the residuals from these models exhibit upward trends over time for the euro countries, and that this leads to an upward bias in the estimated euro effect. To correct for that, we extend the standard model by including a time trend that may have different effects across country‐pairs. This results in an estimated euro impact of only 3%.     

Evaluation of urban land supply policy in Iran

Since the Islamic revolution of 1979, several urban land laws and regulations, as well as a new urban land development policy, have been initiated in Iran. The implementation of these policies was mainly based on public land ownership as a fundamental principle. This paper evaluates the process of recent urban land development policy and focuses on the effectiveness of the policy in terms of land supply. It includes a discussion on the issue of public land ownership, an investigation of post-revolutionary urban land policies in Iran, a discussion on the evaluation of urban land development policy in terms of land supply, and finally, presents an argument on the relationship between public land ownership and urban development. The paper argues that alongside the primary advantages of public land ownership, such as urban growth control, preventing land speculation and providing land for various social needs, the land policy has succeeded to some extent in meeting residential land demand in the study period. However, in terms of the effectiveness of the land supply policies, the paper raises some concerns such as the centralized nature of the land development process, land wastage and isolation from the general process of planning.     

香港的城市更新政策

研究香港相关政府部门、非政府组织在城市更新中关于机构设置、拆迁安置、楼宇修复和历史建筑维护等方面的政策和措施,分析其在城市更新进程中的作用,并对国内城市的旧城发展提出相关建议。     

美国的城市扩张规制及其演变

通过分析开发许可程序基本特征的演化,从郊区化中社会矛盾的加剧与政策目标的多元化、土地开发机制的转变、政府财政压力与行政裁量权的扩张、公众参与下政策议题的转变等方面,把握规划调控政策的发展方向及其社会经济背景,进而深入剖析开发许可手段和内容的转变,探讨美国开发许可制度的发展趋势。     

The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis

We use a SVAR approach to the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as their interactions (policy mix) for the US and the Euro Area (EMU). Overall, our results show that these two cases are different from each other. First, while in the case of the US there is evidence of Keynesian monetary policy, the same is not true in the case of the EMU. Second, considering the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, there is evidence of non-Keynesian fiscal policy in the case of the EMU (expansionary fiscal consolidation), while it does not hold in the case of the US. Third, there is evidence supporting the traditional inverse relationship between monetary policy interest rates and inflation in the case of the US, whereas in the case of the EMU there is a price puzzle (frequent in SVAR studies). Fourth, the baseline model seems to be robust in the case of the US, when considering the effects of the economic and financial crisis 2007–2009, while the opposite holds in the case of the EMU. However, in both cases, the policies seem to act as complements. Another similarity appears when analysing the relationship between public spending and taxation, where there is evidence supporting a fiscal retrenchment.     

The transmission of US economic policy uncertainty shocks to Asian and global financial markets

This paper proposes a novel approach to investigating the spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty shocks on the global financial markets. Employing a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we model US economic policy uncertainty jointly with the latent factors extracted from equity prices, exchange rates, and commodity prices. We find that US economic policy uncertainty affects these factors significantly. A country-level analysis shows heterogeneous responses to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty. With regard to equities, US economic policy uncertainty adversely affects equity prices. However, its impact on the Chinese equity market is relatively small. As for foreign exchange markets, while many currencies depreciate in response to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty, the US dollar and the Japanese yen appreciate, reflecting their safe-haven status. The Chinese yuan, whose nominal exchange rate is closely linked to the US dollar, also appreciates in response to uncertainty shocks.