Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry

This paper develops a method for assessing whether or not imports have been the most significant cause of injury to a U.S. industry. Such a determination is required under the 'escape clause' provisions (Section 201) of the Trade Act of 1974. The method is applied to the case of the U.S. steel industry, which recently petitioned the I.T.C. for import relief. We find that relief is not warranted if the relevant period is taken to be 1976–1983, as specified in the industry's petition. The results are less clear for the shorter period from 1979 to 1983.     

Who Buys Fair Trade and Why (or Why Not)? A Random Survey of Households

We conduct a random survey of Michigan (United States) households to gauge consumer behavior toward, and awareness of, fair trade. Around 58% of respondents have heard of fair trade and just over a quarter have knowingly purchased a fair‐trade product. Of the 38% of respondents who indicated a willingness to pay a premium for a fair trade product, the median premium they were willing to pay was around 20%. We find that those who are politically liberal, female, younger, and have attained higher levels of education are willing to pay higher premiums for fair trade, other factors held constant. Respondents who are unwilling to pay a fair trade premium are divided between not doing so because of a belief that all voluntary trade is already fair and a fear of potential unintended negative consequences on workers.     

信息不对称、董事会特征与管理层盈余预告披露选择——基于我国A股上市公司2004-2007年数据的实证检验

利用2004年1季度-2007年4季度我国A股上市公司样本数据.本文检验了信息不对称程度、董事会特征与管理层盈余预告选择的关系.结果发现:(1)管理层盈余预告值表达方式精确程度及及时性均随着董事会规模增大及董事会会议频率提高而降低;随着独立董事比例提高,管理层盈余预告值表达方式越精确.(2)在考虑信息不对称程度交互作用后,董事会会议频率与管理层盈余预告值表达方式的精确程度之间负相关程度,以及独立董事比例与管理层盈余预告值表达方式的精确程度的正相关程度,均随着信息不对称程度提高而提高;董事会规模对管理层盈余预告偏差的作用程度,以及独立董事比例对管理层盈余预告偏差的作用程度,都会因信息不对称程度变化而不同.     

出口企业如何应对美国“337调查”

继以往反倾销之后,美国企业开始对中国出口产品频繁提起“337条款”诉讼,该条款具有的永久排斥性使其成为影响中国企业出口的又一严重贸易壁垒。由于“337条款”调查涉及的内容在技术上比较专业,对应诉企业来讲,应对起来比反倾销更为复杂。我国应加强宣传和培训工作、事先预防、建立知识产权预警、审查机制,一旦涉案,积极应诉。     

Dynamics of Households' Income,Debt, and Attitudes Toward Credit, 1983–1989

Using the panel data from the 1983–1989 Survey of Consumer Finances, this research examines the shifts in households' income and debt quintiles and changes in respondents' attitudes toward credit. Households exhibited considerable income mobility during the 1980s, almost as much as during the more volatile decade of the 1970s previously reported by Duncan (1986). Except for a committed group of “no debt” households, there was even more mobility in households' debt status, that is, a majority of households were in a different debt quintile in 1989 than in 1983. Respondents' attitudes toward debt also changed considerably with more respondents' becoming more negative toward credit than more positive. Trend analyses of American households' debt underestimate the extent and variability of such changes.     

租金房价比失效了吗——基于四大城市的经验研究

本文基于住房使用成本模型,通过构建租金和房价变动的预测模型,并使用北京、上海、广州和深圳四大城市1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的时间序列数据,考察了租金房价比对未来租金和房价变动的预测能力。研究发现：（1）北京、上海的租金房价比与未来房价变动呈负向关系,与现值模型预测相反,而深圳的二者关系为正,广州的租金房价比对于未来房价变动不存在统计意义上的预测能力;（2）北京、广州和深圳的租金房价比可以预测未来的租金变动率,二者呈反向关系,上海的相应统计值不显著。本文的经验结论表明,租金房价比作为估值指标在中国城市住房市场上的适用性值得谨慎判断。     

Ethics-focused dynamic capabilities: a small business perspective

Our analysis of survey data of US small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) explores (1) whether firms have ‘dynamic’ capabilities that change their ethics-focused operational capabilities; (2) what effects those dynamic capabilities have on both ethical and competitive performance; and, (3) whether those effects are contingent on a firm’s entrepreneurial characteristics. Our survey reveals that about a quarter of SMEs self-report high levels of these ethics-focused dynamic capabilities. We use hierarchical OLS to analyze the survey data to find that the general effect of these capabilities is positive on an SME’s ethical performance, and that the performance effects are contingent on an SME’s degree of entrepreneurial orientation and sensitivity to changes in the business context. The main implication is that the extent of heterogeneity in types, roles, and performance effects of ‘higher-than-operations-level’ capabilities is likely underestimated in current dynamic capabilities theory and application.     

管理层盈余预告消息性质与预告方式操控性选择

文章利用我国A股上市公司2004年1季度－2007年4季度管理层盈余预告样本数据,检验了盈余预告消息性质对管理层盈余预告披露精确性、及时性及态度倾向选择的影响。检验的结果表明：管理层对消息性质为好消息的盈余预告比坏消息的选择了更为精确的预告方式;而对坏消息的盈余预告态度倾向于欠悲观或相对乐观。实证结果说明,管理层在对不同性质消息的盈余预告过程中存在一定程度的操控性披露选择。     

The effect of involvement on visual attention and product choice

Our study examined the effect of consumers' level of involvement on visual attention to product, information sign and price sign guided by the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). We also investigated the relationship between visual attention captured by eye fixation on information and price sign and product choice for garden plants. Using a Tobii X1 light eye tracking device, we obtained data from 101 respondents in Texas and Michigan. We found that participants who had high (vs. low) product involvement paid more attention to the product and its information as demonstrated through higher fixation count (FC), longer total fixation duration (TFD), and total visit duration (TVD). We also found highly involved participants processed price information as a central rather than a peripheral cue. In addition, total visit duration (TVD) on an information sign was found as the strongest predictor of product choice.     

Growing market concentration and changes in consumer welfare: The case of the U.S. commercial airline market

Initial assessments of the economic deregulation of the U.S. airline industry indicated that most consumers gained from the increased competition in the airline market. More recent studies have reached less favorable conclusions. In this study, changes in passenger welfare are determined for 19 U.S. destination cities for the years 1979, 1983, and 1987 on the basis of Hicks' equivalent variation measure, using a counterfactual research design. Particular attention is given to variations in consumer welfare gains/losses depending on (a) the proportion of the change in air fares attributed to deregulation, and (b) the destination airport's classification. The estimates suggest that travelers to large, long-standing hub cities were generally insulated from any large post-1979 welfare changes. Travelers to new hubs experienced substantial welfare declines between 1979 and 1987 — although their post-1983 welfare changes were uniformly positive. Travel to nonhub airports showed the greatest variance, with both the relatively largest welfare gains and the relatively largest losses.     

New evidence in the pursuit of locating new businesses

Finding good, generalizable samples has long been an Achilles heel for those interested in entrepreneurship-related phenomena. Practitioners, policy makers, and researchers frequently desire to take the pulse of entrepreneurial activity but struggle in doing so. For example, Friedman (1995) reported that California overestimated job loss by 2.4 times because of failure to account for newer, more robust firms. With the goal of being able to better identify new businesses, this research addresses the following questions: (1) Which sample sources best identify new businesses? (2) Are the characteristics of a sample drawn from one source similar to those drawn from a different source? (3) How accurate are the different sample sources in the information they report? and (4) How practical and cost effective are the different sample sources?We pursued answers to these questions by examining the state sales tax file and comparing it with the previously examined sources of the state unemployment insurance file (ES202) and Dun & Bradstreet's Dun's Market Indicator file (DMI) (Birley 1984; Aldrich et al. 1989). The phonebook was also used to examine its overlap with the three primary sources. In making these comparisons, we evaluate generalizability issues, accuracy of founding date, cost, practicality, and other auxiliary information.Sales Tax FileOur findings suggest that the sales tax file is a rich source for identifying generalizable samples. The accuracy of the founding data was correct over 70% of the time, and it appears to identify businesses very early in the start-up phase. The data also are available in machine readable format, give some helpful auxiliary information, and the cost of obtaining the file was negligible. Another advantage of the sales tax file is its ability to identify new businesses that do not have visible on-street locations. Thus, the sales tax file appears to be a very credible source for identifying firms early in the start-up process.ES202 File, DMI File, and Phone BookOur study affirms earlier studies that found major limitations with both the ES202 and DMI files. More specifically, this study found that both sources have substantial limitations in identifying new start-up firms, and they both appear to be slow in removing firms from their records once they have moved or gone out of business. As for the phonebook, as it is only issued annually, it takes some time for new businesses to be listed in the directory. Furthermore, because so many of the new businesses identified by the sales tax file initially operate out of the entrepreneur's home (58% in our survey sample), the enumeration/phonebook method would miss many new businesses unless they had a business phone listing and a business sign on their residential property. Thus, we do not consider the enumeration/phonebook method to be very practical, nor the best method for identifying new firms.In sum, these findings give renewed hope in locating generalizable samples of new businesses. Although the sales tax file is not a perfect source, it represents a very attractive alternative for those interested in identifying entrepreneurial firms early in the start-up phase. These findings should assist practitioners, policy makers, and researchers in making better sample selections, which should lead to more accurate indicators of new business start-ups, fewer sample biases, and ultimately, to a better understanding of the determinants of new venture failure and success.     

Innovation and imitation effects in Metaverse service adoption

This study examines the innovation and imitation effects in Metaverse service adoption. “Metaverse services” is a collective term for services such as Augmented reality, Life logging, Mirror world, and Virtual world. Among them, Twitter, Google, iPhone, and Secondlife (T.G.I.S) are the most popular services/products these days. To measure the adoption of these product/services, the most commonly used are IP traffic and iPhone sales. Thus, in this study, we measured adoption by measuring changes in the IP traffic volume of , , , and sales for iPhone during a 2-year period (from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2009). To analyze this time series data to reveal the innovation and imitation effect, we employed the Bass model. The results showed that each of these services yields different innovation and imitation coefficient values. Imitation effects for all Metaverse services are greater than innovation effects, and Secondlife’s innovation effects are larger than others. Also, iPhone sales, as a measurement for information and communication technology (ICT) products, showed greater innovation effects than the other services. Implications are drawn to explain these differences, such as, Googlemap’s imitation effects are based on network externalities, while Twitter’s imitation effects are caused by the interactions of individuals; iPhone sales’ innovation effects are explained by the timing of the measurement.     

Household Debt Quintiles: Explaining Changes 1983–1989

Households' changes in consumer debt from 1983–89 were examined using the panel dataset of the Survey of Consumer Finances. Logit models of the odds of an increase and a decrease in debt quintile revealed four factors hypothesized by Bryant (1990) to be symmetrically related—household size, respondents marital status, inflationary expectations, and time preferences. Asymmetrical effects of other variables, including life cycle consumption needs, present resources, expected future resources, and preferences were found for either the odds of an increase or decrease in consumer debt, but not both. Households' access to credit markets and changes in economic status between 1983 and 1989 also significantly affected the odds of change in consumer debt status, albeit not consistently across models. Household level change in consumer debt and the factors that affect it are more complex than hypothesized.     

Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we’ve really made

We examine the real-time forecasting performance of standard exchange rate models, using dozens of different vintages of data. Favorable evidence of long-horizon exchange rate predictability for the DM and Yen found in Mark (American Economic Review 1995;85:201-218) is present in only a two-year window of data vintages around that originally used. Approximately one-third of the improved forecasting performance over a random walk is eventually undone by data revisions. We also find the models consistently perform better using original release data than fully-revised data, and sometimes forecast better using real-time forecasts of future fundamentals instead of actual future fundamentals, contradicting a cherished presumption dating back to Meese and Rogoff (Journal of International Economics 1983;14:3-24).     

Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?

We construct a model of FDI, risk and aid, where a country loses access to FDI and aid if the country expropriates FDI. We show that: (i) the threat of expropriation leads to under-investment; (ii) the optimal level of FDI decreases as the risk of expropriation rises; and (iii) aid mitigates the adverse effect of expropriation risk on FDI. The empirical analysis employs data for 35 low-income countries and 28 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1983-2004. We find that risk has a negative effect on FDI and that aid mitigates but cannot eliminate the adverse effect of risk.     

How Valuable are the Patents Behind Section 337 Cases?

A US patent protects the owner of the intellectual property from imitators producing in the US and foreign imitators selling in the US market. There are two venues for filing infringement cases against international infringement of US patents, with the International Trade Commission (ITC) using Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930 or with federal district courts. Three indicators of patent value suggest that patents litigated under Section 337 are on average more valuable; however, their values tend to be more variable. The latter suggests that some firms may be using Section 337 not for protection against international infringement of US patents but for protection against imports.     

International competitiveness: A review article

Michael E. Porter's book, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (Porter, 1990), throws interesting new light on the international competitiveness of national firms. It deserves wide readership but this is likely to be handicapped by its length (855’ pages) and discursive style. Section I of this review article describes the approach of the book, Section II presents a short version of the main thesis, Section III offers a critical review of the argument, and, finally, Section IV examines the implications of the volume for the theory of international trade.     

The interrelationships between births and deaths

This paper provides a preliminary study of the way in which the births and deaths of firms interactover time. It uses the retailing sector as a case study, although the results also have relevance for other sectors. Section I of the paper introduces the background to the paper. Section II provides a non mathematical theoretical framework for analysing the births/deaths interrelationship. It identifies three separate types of effect operative in these interrelationships: the competition, multiplier and Marshall (life cycle) effects. The data used in this study (Value Added Tax registrations and deregistrations) and their limitations are considered in Section III. Section IV presents the preliminary empirical results. This section utilises panel data vector autoregression techniques to identify the salient birth-death relationships. The final section concludes the paper and draws out possible policy conclusions. It also suggests avenues for further work.     

FDI对我国出口总量与结构影响的实证分析

本文通过1983-2009数据对我国近30年外国直接投资(FDI)和出口数据进行实证研究,认为FDI对我国出口呈现出明显的正向拉动作用,FDI聚集效应具有正反馈机制。FDI企业前期出口增长对本期出口增长的贡献大于本期FDI增长对本期出口增长的贡献。同时,FDI对我国外贸出口结构升级具有较强的正面效应。     

Real-Time Forecasting Revisited: Letting the Data Decide

Real-time GDP forecasting, also often known as “nowcasting,” produces estimates for current-quarter real GDP growth, typically based on a centered value from a set of estimates from incoming indicators. These real-time measures are usually intended to be data-based and to not be based on forecaster judgment or add factors. Even so, estimation methodologies in this research area—and prior versions of the system we use—typically have been constrained by using various “fixed” relationships, such as a fixed historical sample horizon and fixed empirical specifications for the indicator variables. This paper describes the methodology, estimation, and software code for a more flexible real-time GDP system that allows the data to decide the best real-time GDP forecast for varying sample horizons and varying specifications for each indicator variable through time. Our system uses data on key indicators as they become available (accounting for the “jagged-edge” nature of the data in the current quarter) to generate an estimate of current-quarter real GDP growth, with weights for combining the indicator-specific estimates as determined by the strength of the indicators’ historical relationships to GDP growth. The improved system searches across a variety of specifications and across sample horizons to choose the best specification as determined by a minimum Schwarz criterion test while also searching for the best sample horizon for minimizing the mean absolute error for a recent prediction period. We illustrate the operation of the system for real-time estimates of real GDP growth over a specific quarter, and examine the properties of the estimates and the implications for predictions. We also discuss potential additional applications and demonstrate a specific application for real-time predictions of the monthly change in payroll jobs.