“真正好的东西值得买两次”——探访多抓鱼二手书店

"多抓鱼",它不是鱼,也不卖鱼,而是卖书,是一家新型二手书店的名字。多抓鱼来自法语单词deja vu,意为"似曾相识",寓意人对旧事物的牵绊,这与二手书有着奇妙的吻合——"真正好的东西值得买两次",人与书的"再相遇",仿佛让你感知到世界上的某个角落有另一个灵魂与你相聚于此。冬日的一个午后,记者来到北京朝阳区大望路电影产业园,探访多抓鱼第一家线下实体书店。园区工业化的建筑风格与可爱的多抓鱼标识,竟混搭出一丝怀旧的萌感。     

转型:成功之道

可以预期,银行经营转型注定还将是2006年乃至未来相当长时期里中国银行业的关键词。这样一个由大环境驱使的经营转型,意味着银行业的重新洗牌,不同规模、不同发展水平以及不同类型的商业银行似乎又回到了相对公平的起点上,因为大家都要面对一个全新的考试、需要适应一套全新的规则和全新的赛制。竞争可能更为激烈。但同时,竞争的结果将是整个金融效率的提高。对于具体的银行而言,都不希望被转型的大浪所淘汰掉。那么,如何成功转型     

How to Create Value Without Earnings: The Case of Amazon

Investors and commentators often equate GAAP accounting metrics, especially earnings per share, with financial success. The reality, however, is that there is no simple, linear relationship between GAAP earnings and intrinsic value, which is defined as the present value of expected future cash flows. And adjustments of GAAP metrics, though admittedly subjective, are often required to understand the economic reality of a business. http://Amazon.com Inc. provides a case study that throws into sharp relief the need to look beyond GAAP in order to analyze underlying fundamentals and value. In this paper, the authors argue that Amazon has done a superb job of building shareholder wealth, all the while reporting low and declining operating and net income margins. The article provides a framework for thinking about Amazon's underlying profitability that is based on the concept of return on capital in relation to the cost of capital, and shows how that profitability has been masked by GAAP accounting. The authors demonstrate that the company is now investing very large amounts of capital with the expectation of earning rates of return well above its cost of capital. And their analysis suggests that if such investment can continue over the long term, Amazon's current market value of $140 billion can be readily justified.     

How Much Does Investor Sentiment Really Matter for Equity Issuance Activity?

We study the extent to which investor sentiment matters for aggregate equity issuance activity. We focus on firms that are susceptible to investor sentiment and for which accurate measures of economic fundamentals are available. While sentiment on its own matters for equity issuance, it matters relatively little once we control for accurately measured fundamentals. Collectively, proxies for sentiment explain roughly 10 percentage points of the time-series variation of equity issuance beyond the roughly 40% explained by fundamentals. We conclude that investor sentiment does not seem to matter very much for aggregate equity issuance activity.     

China VC Succeed in 2Q

Venture capital investing in China reaches $480.1 million in second quarter of 2006, doubling from last year, the venture capital deal and early-stage financing in Mainland China has increased dramatically.     

执着搭档,托起通化城信社希望

通化城信社历经近十载的风风雨雨,终于摆脱被撤并的厄运,走向统一法人社,并步入一条通向城商行的光明之途,这一切来自于一对搭档十年来的坚持不懈与孜孜以求。2007年,中国城信社和城市商业银行变革的舞台上依然同时上演着一系列冰火两重天的故事。6月18日,在北国吉林省,通化城市信用社联社刚刚跨出单一法人的一步;四天之后即6月22日,在江南,两家也是由城信社蜕变而来的城商行——南京银行和宁波银行上市申请双双获中国证监会核批。但本文无意付墨渲     

中国经济真的动态无效吗

史永东与杜两省、史永东与齐鹰飞、袁志刚与何樟勇相继考察了中国经济的动态效率,结果均表明中国经济是动态无效的.本文首先通过实证研究进一步检验上述结论,并进而追问中国经济为什么会发生动态无效.笔者的分析表明,这种无效性只是一种表象,它是由我国的粗放式经济增长方式决定的,其根源在于静态资源配置,特别是投资配置的无效性.在此基础上,本文进而指出,上述作者提出的消除无效性的政策建议是不恰当的,真正有效的途径只有转变增长方式,提高增长绩效.     

Buying a house and the decision to use a real estate broker

This study examines the factors that affect the decision by home buyers to use real estate brokers and the subsequent effect this decision has on home prices. Buyers with high opportunity costs and the least amount of information about local market conditions are the most likely to use brokers; a finding consistent with the role of the real estate broker as a market intermediary. Not surprisingly, these were some of the same factors that also have a positive impact on selling price. An important finding of this study is that when selection bias is adequately controlled, the real estate broker has no appreciable, independent impact on selling price. This, in turn, suggests a nonsegmented, highly competitive housing market.     

衍生产品使用对公司价值和业绩影响的实证检验

本文在回顾企业使用衍生产品相关理论的基础上，分析了中国上市公司使用衍生产品现状，并以深沪两市有色金属加工或生产行业上市公司为研究样本，实证检验中国上市公司使用衍生产品进行风险管理是否提高了公司价值和业绩，结果发现中国企业使用衍生产品并没有像西方理论所认为的那样可以提升公司价值，其原因在于国内企业使用衍生产品的负面影响抵消了其正面作用，所以无法起到提升公司价值的作用。在此基础上，文章提出了相关的政策建议。     

Buying real options - Valuing uncertainty in infrastructure planning

For the last two decades real options thinking has been heralded as a new approach for handling uncertainty in investment decisions. However, application of the approach in infrastructure investment decision-making is negligible thus far. In this contribution we address the question: what are the barriers for the implementation of the real option approach (ROA) in practice? We focus on the experiences in several infrastructure-bound sectors: spatial planning and transport, ports, and energy.We conclude that the ROA maturity levels of these different sectors are quite different, and we ascribe these differences to the political setting, the institutional setting and the organisational flexibility of the sectors and their stakeholders. We suggest that the same issues apply to other advanced, quantitative methods.     

Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency

This paper documents that strategies which buy stocks that have performed well in the past and sell stocks that have performed poorly in the past generate significant positive returns over 3-to 12-month holding periods. We find that the profitability of these strategies are not due to their systematic risk or to delayed stock price reactions to common factors. However, part of the abnormal returns generated in the first year after portfolio formation dissipates in the following two years. A similar pattern of returns around the earnings announcements of past winners and losers is also documented.     

Liquidation Distributions to Members in Worlds With and Without Par Values

Although par values of shares were abolished by the Corporations Law Reform Act 1998, they continue in use where agreements predating this Act, or legal doctrine underpinning the agreements, depend on them. One such doctrine, the principle of equality, is invoked in winding-up if agreements about distributions to members fail or do not exist. This paper examines how the principle of equality may be implemented in the post-commencement period. It considers shares that had par values, now abolished but potentially revivable, and no-par shares issued after commencement. The major theme is that par value abolition has undermined the case law on the equality principle, and that oncesettled law has become uncertain.     

If at First You Don't Succeed: The Effect of the Option to Resolicit on Corporate Takeovers

This article models, and experimentally simulates, the free-riderproblem in a takeover when the raider has the option to "resolicit,"that is, to make a new offer after an offer has been rejected.In theory, the option to resolicit, by lowering offer credibility,increases the dissipative losses associated with free riding.The outcomes of our experiment support this prediction and producelosses from free riding even higher than theoretically predicted.These dissipation losses reduce raider gains to less than 3%of synergy value of the acquisition     

Liquidation Distributions to Members in Worlds With and Without Par Values

Although par values of shares were abolished by the Corporations Law Reform Act 1998, they continue in use where agreements predating this Act, or legal doctrine underpinning the agreements, depend on them. One such doctrine, the principle of equality, is invoked in winding-up if agreements about distributions to members fail or do not exist. This paper examines how the principle of equality may be implemented in the post-commencement period. It considers shares that had par values, now abolished but potentially revivable, and no-par shares issued after commencement. The major theme is that par value abolition has undermined the case law on the equality principle, and that oncesettled law has become uncertain.     

A Fair Pricing Approach to Weather Derivatives

This paper proposes a consistent approach to the pricing of weather derivatives. Since weather derivatives are traded in an incomplete market setting, standard hedging based pricing methods cannot be applied. The growth optimal portfolio, which is interpreted as a world stock index, is used as a benchmark or numeraire such that all benchmarked derivative price processes are martingales. No measure transformation is needed for the proposed fair pricing. For weather derivative payoffs that are independent of the value of the growth optimal portfolio, it is shown that the classical actuarial pricing methodology is a particular case of the fair pricing concept. A discrete time model is constructed to approximate historical weather characteristics. The fair prices of some particular weather derivatives are derived using historical and Gaussian residuals. The question of weather risk as diversifiable risk is also discussed. 1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary 90A12; secondary 60G30; 62P20 JEL Classification: C16, G10, G13     

升值之言该如何听

自今年6月中国暗示将松动人民币汇率以来,人民币升值幅度仅为0．4％,这大大低于华盛顿的期待,因此,中美两国的关系日益紧张起来。随着失业率的膨胀,以及选举年即将到来,美国国会再一次将人民币汇率摆上了议事日程：9月6日,华盛顿两位高官为缓和中美关系前往北京,就人民币及其他重要问题进行高峰会晤,以期达成共识。     

Derivatives traders’ reaction to mispricing in the underlying equity

This article examines trading behavior in the options market conditioned on mispricing in the underlying stock. We investigate the price equilibrium between the observed equity asset and the options-implied synthetic share as well as the relative divergence between the two prices. We find a consistently positive relation between the level of stock mispricing and violations of the upper-boundary condition using derivatives, along with an increase in price divergence. To control for the effect of shorting limitations on mispricing, we further examine prices during the short-sale ban in 2008. The results hold and in many instances are more significant during the ban period. Given the persistent disequilibria between the synthetic and observed stock prices, we argue the results are evidence of informed trading in the derivatives market.