大型工程的系统复杂性研究

自然、社会环境的复杂和技术、管理能力不足等使得大型工程建设过程中的复杂性不断增加,传统的项目管理方法已很难具有相应的驾驭能力,有必要运用复杂性科学来重新审视和认识大型工程的建设管理。本文分析了工程和系统之间的紧密联系后,指出大型工程是个复杂系统,同时研究了由于工程价值观多元性、工程开放性、资源整合复杂性以及其它复杂性因素对大型工程系统复杂性的深刻影响。     

有关复杂经济系统的动态非均衡经济理论评述

传统的经济学理论都是建立在静态的、均衡的理论基础上的,这一理论体系自建立以来就一直受到来自各方面的挑战.随着社会经济的发展,越来越多的现象已无法在这一理论框架下得到合理的解释.“复杂性理论”产生于自然科学领域,是近期国际学术界研究的一个新热点.如今,当我们将复杂性理论引入经济领域,以动态非均衡的复杂性观点来研究经济问题时,许多经济现象就能得到很好的解释.因此,合理借鉴复杂性理论的思维是对经济理论发展的一种很有意义的探索.     

人力资本配置系统研究--基于Lotka-Volterra模型的动态分析

人力资本配置与流动理论散见于西方经典人力资本理论文献中，这与人力资本理论产生于资本主义市场经济发育相对成熟阶段有关。本文将技术、制度因素纳入到Lotka—Volterra模型中，并区分出竞争、互惠、供需三种基本的人力资本配置系统。在比较静态的基础上，发挥Lotka—Voltena模型的定性分析，探讨人力资本配置系统的动态变化。揭示人力资本配置系统中技术、制度互动的复杂性。     

基于产业创新系统模型的中国智能手机产业研究

随着中国传统产业的转型升级，产品的智能化、工业的信息化显得越发重要。本文基于产业创新系统理论，结合中国智能手机的发展历程，构建了中国智能手机产业创新系统模型。研究结果表明，在工业化与信息化结合的过程中，由于技术的复杂性，市场的不确定性，企业应当在技术识别的基础上选择适宜的技术发展路径，并与各类创新主体相互协作，对“硬件、软件和互联网服务”整个生态系统进行升级。     

促进循环经济科技系统的税收政策思考

循环经济的本质是一种新的技术范式，在这种技术范式指导下，循环经济能够实现经济的质量型增长和环境保护的双赢，是我们所提倡的“功能型经济”。这种经济模式对我国转变转变经济增长方式、创建环境友好型和谐社会有着非常深远的意义。然而现行的相关税收政策在制定和实行过程中没有将循环经济作为科学技术范式即循环经济科技系统来给予支持。因此，要加强对循环经济科技系统的战略认识，建立和完善相应的经济立法以提供税收政策依据，并且要加强税种建设、完善现行税收政策。     

资源型产业集群发展演进的系统反馈结构分析

该文利用系统动力学反馈动态复杂性分析理论与技术,以系统科学方法分析资源型产业集群发展的问题,建立了有效刻画资源型产业集群复杂系统的结构模型,利用基模分析技术分析了系统中的反馈关系,进行了管理对策的生成研究。     

论生态环境系统与社会经济系统的协调发展

当今不可持续的经济畸增的生产模式和消费模式使人类生存和发展面临严峻挑战。发展理论面临严峻的考验,必须放弃传统发展理论,走生态环境系统与社会经济系统协调发展之路。     

论生态环境系统与社会经济系统的协调发展

当今不可持续的经济畸增的生产模式和消费模式使人类生存和发展面临严峻挑战。发展理论面临严峻的考验 ,必须放弃传统发展理论 ,走生态环境系统与社会经济系统协调发展之路。     

服务业对外直接投资理论综述

随着全球经济一体化，各国服务业对外开放的逐步深入。服务业在国民经济中的地位日益增强，有关服务业直接投资的研究开始发展起来。经济学者对服务业直接投资进行了大量理论和实证分析，提出了适合于发达国家服务业FDI的理论，主要是从传统FDI理论扩展而来。比较全面系统的是邓宁的三大优势理论在服务业的应用。适合发展中国家服务业FDI理论主要由市场控制论，国家利益优先论，小国规模技术理论，规模经济理论和技术地方化理论等。     

经济计量学的非平衡系统方法

经济计量学在20世纪获得了巨大进展，经济理论从自然科学中移用概念和方法受到重视，统计学和几乎所有数学分支相继进入社会经济诸研究领域，经济计量方法开始影响其他社会科学。系统科学，特别是非平衡系统理论的成就已引起广泛重视。非平衡系统理论的横向扩展和经济计量方法的纵向深入，正在产生和完善一门“非平衡系统经济学”。     

Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK

This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the US and the UK which indicate that in these countries the government’s fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.     

On the Structure,Dynamics, and Use of the Asset Share in the National Wealth

In this article, the share of assets in the national wealth is taken as the object of analysis and forecast. The dynamics, structure and use of the basic elements of Russia’s productive assets—natural capital (energy inputs), human capital, and active fixed assets—are analyzed. It is shown that the natural capital will inevitably be replaced by human capital in combination with the asset share in fixed capital, and that the economy in the coming transition period (2018–2030) will necessarily transform to an innovative growth model.The annual balances of changes in the components of the assets in the national wealth for 2012–2016 are developed. The impact of the crisis is estimated. Some promising directions for using the accumulated human capital together with the asset share in fixed capital for a transition from a resource-based to an innovation model of Russia’s development are considered and substantiated.     

The Belt,the Road,and the carbon emissions in China

This paper explores the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's exports and the domestic carbon emissions induced by the exports. We employ a decomposition framework to assess the driving factors of the change of CO₂ emissions induced by China's exports to different destinations and evaluate the main contributions of the gap between the BRI countries and non-BRI (NBRI) countries. The decomposition results show that while the scale effect was the dominant force behind the pre-BRI emission growth, the contribution of the composition effect became more prominent after the inception of the Initiative. Our econometric analysis suggests that the Initiative leads to an increase in the share of carbon-intensive products in China's exports to the BRI countries by nearly 5 percentage points, which is approximately one quarter of the share of carbon-intensive exports to the BRI countries. A further investigation reveals that China's international project contracting is the main channel that has resulted in the increase of the share of carbon-intensive exports in China's exports to the BRI countries.     

Incentives, Choice, and Accountability in the Provision of Public Services

This paper discusses a theoretical framework to study the issuesof competition and incentives without relying on the standardprofit-oriented ‘market’ model in the context ofthe debates about public-service reform in the UK. It uses theidea that the production of public services coheres around amission, and discusses how decentralized service provision canraise productivity by matching motivated workers to their preferredmissions. Our focus on competition and incentives cuts acrosstraditional debates about public versus private ownership andallows for the possibility of involving private non-profit organizations.We also address concerns about the consequences of allowingmore flexibility in mission design and competition on inequality.     

Crime, Incarceration, and Employment in Light of the Great Recession

This paper analyzes the impact of the 2007 recession on the incarceration of African–Americans. It begins with a brief examination of incarceration, followed by a look at the literature on the relationship between work, crime, and incarceration. Finally, it concludes with the implications of these findings for African–Americans as it relates to the current economic crisis.     

Race,class, and politics in the black community of Boston

Conclusion We found that there are indeed some slight differences in the electoral behavior of black voters when we separate them into high and low socio-economic areal categories based on the level of median income. These slight differences include turnout rates for primary and general elections and voter registration rates. The higher the socioeconomic status of the black electorate in Boston, the higher the turnout and registration rates for that area tended to be; however, this relationship was not found to be consistent among all the areas selected for study. Despite these differences in electoral behavior or “practices,” our areal model does not suggest any significant political schisms based on the sicioeconomic indicators used. Black voters tended to vote the same way on a number of city and state ballot questions, support the same candidates at both the city and state level, and vote the liberal preference on both issues and candidates regardless of socioeconomic background. In addition, there is some evidence that the higher a black voter is on the socioeconomic scale, the greater his or her tendency will be to vote the liberal position on various issues and candidates. Our model also suggests that black voters will tend to support black candidates regardless of some socioeconomic factors. If this model can be used as an indication of class differences in the black community, then our data show that socioeconomic criteria are not as salient as race in determining the political behavior and preferences of black voters.     

六朝商人诗及所反映的商品经济

六朝商人诗含以商人为题者、商人所写者、不以商人为题而实写商人者、借叙事抒情而涉及商人者等四种类型，其传递出的信息是：1．商人社会地位的变化；2．城市商业畸形繁荣；3．封建政权不抑富商巨贾，抑商、贱商主要针对中小商人，这为研究六朝的商人和商业提供了有力的佐证。