中国对外贸易倾销与反倾销的对策分析

中国对外贸易发展迅速的同时，对外贸易遭遇的倾销与反倾销的指控越来越多，情况也变得更加复杂，应对这种形式，政府、行业及企业应协调合作，借助WTO争端解决机制采取相关对策。     

Temporary social dumping,union legalisation and FDI: a note on the strategic use of standards

This paper analyses the welfare implications for a developing country of using union legalisation as a policy instrument to attract inward foreign direct investment. While its presence may discourage a foreign multinational (MNE) from locating in the host country, unionisation is an important rent-extracting instrument for the host country. We show that if the MNE benefits from dynamic effects, the host country government may have an incentive to adopt temporary social dumping: banning the union in the short run to extract higher rents in the future. However, if the government can use a fiscal instrument in conjunction with union legalisation, the former can circumvent the need to engage in social dumping.     

从中美贸易摩擦看贸易不确定性对中国企业的冲击及应对

贸易不确定性对中国企业的冲击体现在对中国企业对外贸易量、产品价格和利润、创新和产品质量以及企业效率和产品附加值等方面的影响。中美贸易摩擦发生以来,虽然双方贸易额还没有出现明显下降,但加征高额关税抬高了中国企业进入美国市场的门槛,使中国企业获得先进技术的难度增加,并面临着市场转换问题,带来的人民币汇率下跌也影响着中国企业进出口。应通过深化供给侧结构性改革推动经济高质量发展、深化创新驱动战略提高企业产品附加值、加快推动“一带一路”倡议构建中国主导的生产链、继续扩大对外开放加速融入经济全球化等措施,有效应对贸易不确定性带来的影响。     

贸易不确定性对中国企业的冲击及应对策略研究--基于中美贸易摩擦的视角

基于中美贸易摩擦的新动向,围绕当前中国企业应该如何应对中美贸易摩擦带来的风险进行研究。回顾中美贸易摩擦的历史问题,聚焦中美贸易摩擦的新动向,分析中国企业受中美贸易摩擦总体影响情况。研究发现,中美贸易摩擦背景下贸易不确定性带来的冲击有关税增加、企业经营成本激增、配套制造业产业链受到牵连以及中美产业集群发展失衡等。在此基础上,从企业、政府以及银行三方的角度,强调"政企银"打好组合拳,多向发力,共同协助中国企业顺利应对风险,帮助企业将中美贸易摩擦冲击带来的损失降至最低。     

When trade hurts: Consumption indivisibilities and labor market distortions

We present a simple model where complementarities between wages and demand due to factor market distortions can make a transition economy worse off from trade. Prior to trade, a virtuous circle prevails: high wages in industry support a high demand for indivisible industrial goods, which in turn supports high wages. However, factor market distortions in the transition economy create a comparative disadvantage in industry. Opening up to trade results in the import of indivisibles and a fall in manufacturing wages, breaking this virtuous circle. Consequently, trade liberalization without structural reform can have serious adverse effects in a transition economy.     

过度竞争、进入壁垒与流通组织优化

过度竞争是流通产业健康运行的重要障碍。文章从产品同质性和产品差异化两个角度,运用扩展的伯川德模型和萨洛普模型,分析了过度竞争在流通产业中出现的必然性,即流通产业自由进入的特点决定了过度竞争的存在。然后运用斯塔尔博格模型,采用跨期分析,指出了流通企业选择合适的投资水平可以阻止潜在进入者,避免过度竞争的发生。最后,提出了优化流通组织的建议。     

Foreign monetary shocks,differentiated products and international transmission: a two-country model with intra-industry trade

In this paper we study how the impact of a foreign monetary shock is transmitted between two monopolistically competitive economies engaging in intra-industry trade with differentiated products. Intra-industry trade is the only international link that works through the flexible exchange rate affecting national price levels and a product's internal and external relative prices. While national price levels are subject to purchasing power parity, the two relative prices are determined by the interaction between macro and micro variables. In this context, the exchange rate can insulate a national economy perfectly from a foreign monetary shock provided that monopolists adjust prices. Even if monopolists keep prices rigid, this shock only affects domestic real balances and aggregate demand, leaving domestic aggregate output unchanged because the real balances effect is just offset by the resulting unfavorable relative prices effects under the assumption of Spence-Dixit-Stiglitz preferences.     

Excessive risk exposure: A question of ethical decision-making

This commentary essay reflects on the article titled “When an irresistible force meets an immovable object: The interplay of agency and structure in the UK financial crisis” (Ashby et al., this issue). Specifically, managers took on excessive risk that ultimately contributed to financial crisis. This essay discusses whether the decision to accept excessive risk falls under ethical decision-making, including the degree of moral intensity as possibly perceived by risk and financial managers. The components for determining moral intensity include (1) magnitude of consequences, (2) social consensus, (3) probability of effect, (4) temporal immediacy, (5) proximity, and (6) concentration of effect.     

技术贸易壁垒下中美纺织品贸易竞争力及影响因素研究

采用国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数及贸易互补性指数分析了中美两国纺织品在国际市场中的竞争地位及各纺织品类贸易互补性强度,并将美国发布的纺织行业技术通报(TBT)作为技术变量纳入随机前沿引力模型,进一步实证分析中美纺织品贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中国纺织品国际竞争优势强于美国,尤其表现在纺织制成品类;出口角度看,两国在纺织制成品类上呈现显著贸易互补性,进口角度看,两国在纺织原料上具有较强互补性。在影响因素中,技术壁垒、进口国经济、出口国人口及两国距离负向抑制中美纺织品贸易,出口国经济、进口国人口及人均收入之差正向促进中美纺织贸易发展。     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.     

我国外贸企业应谨防国际贸易欺诈

随着我国外贸额的不断增长及更多的企业开始从事国际贸易业务，我国外贸企业正在越来越多的成为国际不法商人欺诈的对象。本文从国际贸易合同主体欺诈、海运欺诈、结算欺诈三个方面论述了我国外贸企业所可能面临的欺诈风险以及相应的防范措施。     

Overlapping free trade agreements and international trade: A network approach

In our work, we have analysed the effect of the hub‐and‐spoke nature of free trade agreements (FTA s) on trade. Contrary to previous analyses, we have considered the effects of the country's position in the FTA network on the bilateral trade of the hub country. We have conducted an in‐depth analysis of the global network of FTA s, focusing particularly on its evolution in the last 15 years. We have utilised a panel data set covering the period 1960–2010 to investigate the effects of the hub‐and‐spoke on trade. Our results show that the countries that are more connected to FTA s export more than those that are less involved, although not all the partner countries you can connect with are the same. An increase in the number of spokes that have no link between them has, on average, a negative effect on the trade of the hub, which indicates that signing FTA s with every country is not the optimal strategy for increasing trade. However, if we consider the way new FTA s change the relative position of a country, we can see that if new FTA s make the country more central or less constrained in the network, these new agreements have a strongly positive and significant pro‐trade effect.     

Preference heterogeneity, wage inequality, and trade

We consider individuals who value product variety, and who can be skilled or unskilled as workers. Skilled people prefer to consume skill-intensive goods. We show that under plausible conditions an increase in the relative size of the skilled population increases the relative wage of skilled workers, thereby increasing wage inequality. In our two-country model of trade, an increase in the relative supply of skilled labor in either country increases the relative wage of skilled workers, and hence increases inequality in both countries.     

Stock market data and trade policy: dumping and the semiconductor industry

This article uses stock market data to examine the effects of cost-based dumping and the subsequent trade agreements between the United States and Japan on U.S. semiconductor firms. Our empirical results show that the initial indication of dumping by Japanese semiconductor firms had a significant negative impact on stock prices of U.S. firms. On the other hand, the subsequent market-sharing trade agreement, under which Japan agreed to prevent the dumping of Japan-manufactured chips in the United States and the United States agreed to suspend the application of antidumping duties, had a positive impact on the stock prices of U.S. semiconductor firms. Our findings support the neoclassical trade theory that the imposition of import relief leads to a wealth transfer to producers.     

Comparative advantage,service trade,and global imbalances

The large current account deficit of the U.S. is the result of a large deficit in the goods balance and a modest surplus in the service balance. The opposite is true for Japan, Germany, and China. Moreover, I document the emergence from the mid-nineties of a strong negative relation between specialization in the export of services and the current account balances of a large sample of OECD and developing countries. Starting from these new stylized facts, I propose in this paper a service hypothesis for global imbalances, a new explanation based on the interplay between the U.S. comparative advantage in services and the asymmetric trade liberalization process in goods trade versus service trade that took place starting in the mid-nineties. First, I use a structural gravity model to show that service trade liberalization lagged behind goods trade liberalization, and I quantify the extent of this asymmetry. Second, I show that a simple two-period model can rationalize the emergence of current account deficits in the presence of such asymmetric liberalization. The key inter-temporal mechanism is the asymmetric timing of trade policies, which affects saving decisions. Finally, I explore the quantitative relevance of this explanation for global imbalances. I introduce trade costs in an otherwise standard 2-sector 2-country international real business cycle model. When fed with the asymmetric trade liberalization path found in the data, the model generates a trade deficit of about 5% of GDP. I conclude that the service hypothesis for global imbalances is quantitatively relevant.     

中日农产品贸易与贸易摩擦分析

中、日建交以来,双边贸易关系越来越密切。但随着两国农产品贸易交流与合作的不断发展,其贸易摩擦也与日俱增,这影响了中日贸易的健康发展。本文从分析中国对日农产品出口贸易的贸易规模、产品结构等入手,得出对日农产品贸易的特点。然后,通过介绍两个重点贸易摩擦事件,分析其原因。     

Free trade agreement and transport service trade

This study investigates the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade in transport services using OECD data from 2003 to 2006. Our analysis found that FTAs had a positive overall impact on transport services for multiple countries (i.e., 26 home and 56 partner countries). The resulting positive overall impact assures that, even with the challenges associated with different layers of services and the obstacles formed by generally low trade openness in the sector, the provisions in FTAs (e.g., national treatment and market access for goods and services) promote transport service trades. Our findings suggest that the provisions in FTAs encourage economic agents to increase engagement in transport services because of expanded openness of the physical movement of goods across international borders.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

International trade,risk taking and welfare

This paper shows that the gains from opening up to international trade are smaller when firms do not fully internalize downward risk. I develop a general equilibrium model with two key assumptions. First, when faced with adverse productivity shocks, employers can lay off workers without fully paying the social costs of their layoff decisions, a common feature of many institutions. Second, when opening to international trade, the elasticity of demand perceived by an industry increases. In this setup, I show that international trade induces firms to take more risk and (i) raises the equilibrium unemployment rate, (ii) increases the volatility of sectoral sales and (iii) increases welfare proportionately less than in the absence of the externality. Inducing firms to internalize the costs of layoff (Blanchard and Tirole, 2003) therefore appears even more important in a globalized world.     

美国对华贸易逆差形成原因、影响及应对策略

美国贸易的互补性强于竞争性,美对华技术出口的严格管制加剧了对华贸易逆差和对中国经济的负面影响。两国贸易不平衡引发贸易摩擦,严重阻碍了中国进出口贸易的顺利进行。中国应实行全局开放战略,以双边协商缓和贸易摩擦,促进出进口双向增长,实现对外贸易的基本平衡。