贸易增长的二元边际:一个文献综述

贸易增长的二元边际是对贸易流量的结构性分解,深入剖析二元边际的结构、作用机制和影响因素对理解贸易增长的性质、福利含义以及贸易政策的制定等贸易实践都具有指导意义。本文从以下四个方面归纳和评述已有的研究成果:(1)在对二元边际的概念界定进行整理;(2)总结关于测度二元边际结构的经验研究;(3)二元边际对贸易福利的作用机制;(4)影响二元边际的因素分析。通过对已有文献的总结和评述,指出发现国内研究的不足以及今后研究拓展的方向。     

Entry,trade costs,and international business cycles

Are firm entry and fixed exporting costs relevant for understanding the international transmission of business cycles? We revisit this question using a model that includes entry, selection to exporting activity, physical capital accumulation and endogenous labor supply. We determine that once the stochastic process for exogenous productivity is calibrated to consider the endogenous dynamics in TFP created by the number of firms and the time series volatility of entry is calibrated to the data, our model yields minimal departures from the Backus et al. (1992) benchmark. The richer model shares all of the successes of the previous model in terms of the volatilities of aggregate quantities, as well as its failures, in terms of replicating patterns of international co-movement and the volatility of international relative prices.     

Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade

One of the main policy sources of trade–cost changes is the formation of an economic integration agreement (EIA), which potentially affects an importing country's welfare. This paper: (i) provides the first evidence using gravity equations of both intensive and extensive (goods) margins being affected by EIAs employing a panel data set with a large number of country pairs, product categories, and EIAs from 1962 to 2000; (ii) provides the first evidence of the differential (partial) effects of various “types” of EIAs on these intensive and extensive margins of trade; and (iii) finds a novel differential “timing” of the two margins' (partial) effects with intensive-margin effects occurring sooner than extensive-margin effects, consistent with recent theoretical predictions. The results are robust to correcting for potential sample-selection, firm-heterogeneity, and reverse causality biases.     

空间竞争、房价收入比与房价

本文通过构建一个房地产市场空间竞争模型,分别就Cournot竞争和价格合谋情形,探讨了开发商的位置及其密度如何影响均衡开发量、房价和社会福利.本文的基本结论是:空间竞争决定了房价,而非房价收入比;市场决定的价格不一定为合理性价格;房价与市中心距离和开发商密度成反比;空间垄断是房价刚性的根本原因.因此,要将刚性房价降下来,政府一方面应将大项目拆分为小项目,促进竞争,另一方面应对空间垄断进行管制.     

Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market

This paper exploits the unique case of European market integration to investigate the relationship between integration and price convergence in international markets. Using a panel data set of car prices, we examine how the process of integration has affected cross-country price dispersion in Europe. We find surprisingly strong evidence of convergence towards both the absolute and the relative versions of the Law of One Price (LOOP). Our analysis illuminates the main sources of segmentation in international markets and suggests the type of institutional changes that can successfully reduce it.     

Fertility,intergenerational transfers and economic development

This paper develops a model of endogenous growth where agents are altruistic and value both the utilities of their parent and of their children. Individuals endogenously choose the number of their children, and arbitrate between financing education, leaving them some bequest and offering some gift to their parents. We establish the existence of three types of long run regime. Starting from a low level of human capital, an economy converges towards a stationary state associated with a constant output per worker, a high level of fertility and ascendant transfers. If the initial level of human capital is not too low, another stationary state jointly exists with a lower level of fertility and no transfer. Finally, starting from a high level of human capital, the economy experiences a steady growth of output per worker associated with a low fertility level and descendant transfers. We then assume that an economy is initially in the stationary underdevelopment regime with ascendant transfers, and we study the power of different policies to push the economy toward the growth regime. We successively consider a fertility control policy, an education subsidies policy, and the introduction of a pension system for the elderly.     

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affects economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP) and investment. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 70 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results for both de jure and de facto indicators suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it does not directly affect capital accumulation. I also control for indirect effects of financial globalization through financial development and banking and currency crises. While financial integration does not systematically increase domestic financial depth, it may raise the likelihood of banking crises, though only to a minor extent. Yet, the overall effect of financial liberalization remains positive for productivity and negligible for investment.     

Internationalisation, industrial policy and clusters

This paper analyses industrial policy in an open economy hosting an agglomeration consisting of vertically linked upstream and downstream firms. We show that optimal policy towards upstream and downstream industries may typically differ radically in this setting as compared to the case of a closed economy. Internationalisation in terms of international mobility of firms as well as reduced trade costs is found to have significant impact on policy design. We find that in addition to technology and demand characteristics, degree of mobility and level of trade cost are key determinants of tax and subsidy levels.     

不同因素影响下我国出口企业依市定价行为的非对称性研究——基于总体层面和典型行业层面的比较

文章利用中美贸易数据,从出口企业总体层面以及行业(HS11、HS16)层面比较分析了三种不同的内、外部经济因素波动对我国出口企业依市定价(PTM)行为的非对称性影响。结果发现:(1)美国经济波动和汇率波动率对出口企业依市定价行为具有显著的非对称性影响,但汇率变化幅度则没有发现这种影响;(2)尽管具有某些共性,但不论从总体层面上还是典型行业层面,出口企业的PTM行为对于影响因素变化的敏感程度以及PTM程度在影响因素变化前后的非对称程度均存在着明显的差异;(3)无论影响因素如何波动,技术密集型产业(HS16)的PTM行为均低于劳动密集型产业(HS11)的PTM行为。文章对此进行了详细的分析并讨论了其政策涵义。     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.     

Economic integration,market discipline and productivity growth in Spain

This paper explores the changes on productivity growth, economies of scale and market discipline experienced by a selected number of Spanish manufacturing industries as a result of the 1986?–?92 integration of Spain into the European Union. Since the intra-union trade liberalization process spanned a seven-year, multi-stage, adhesion period we employ a model with a smooth transition variable to account fully for its impact. An additional model that uses separate sets of dummy variables captures differences in the regression estimates during the transitional and liberalized periods. In both model specifications we find strong evidence of increases in returns to scale and reductions in producers' mark-ups, whereas productivity growth increases are found to be small and uneven.     

Corporate tax systems, multinational enterprises, and economic integration

Multinational firms are known to shift profits and countries are known to compete over shifty profits. Two major principles for corporate taxation are Separate Accounting (SA) and Formula Apportionment (FA). These two principles have very different qualities when it comes to preventing profit shifting and preserving national tax autonomy. Most OECD countries use SA. In this paper we show that a reduction in trade barriers lowers equilibrium corporate taxes under SA, but leads to higher taxes under FA. From a welfare point of view, the choice of tax principle is shown to depend on the degree of economic integration.     

A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages

This paper presents a general equilibrium trade model in which homogeneous firms choose a technology from a set of competing technologies and choose employees from a set of workers of heterogeneous skill. In equilibrium, the interaction between the characteristics of competing technologies, international trade costs, and the availability of workers of heterogeneous skill gives rise to firm heterogeneity. The model generates several of the stylized facts concerning the (apparent) superiority of firms that engage in international trade relative to those that do not and has implications for the effect of international trade on the skill premium and on observed industry-level productivity.     

Varieties of regional integration,international trade networks and risk

This paper explores the relationship between regional integration models and trade network structures. The paper further investigates the implications of these trade relationship configurations on risk. The exploratory study models the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as networks: countries in each region are nodes connected by lines representing commodity trade flows. The study compares the evolution of the two regional networks over a 25‐year period (1990–2014). The results confirm that different regional integration models lead to differently structured economic relationships. The findings show that loosely coupled networks are vulnerable to the failure of a few connected nodes (concentrated vulnerability), but that tightly coupled regional networks are vulnerable to the failure of any of its nodes (random vulnerability). These unique differences in vulnerability have critical implications for managing economic risk.     

Incomplete market participation, endogenous endowment risks and welfare

This paper investigates the equilibrium growth rate of capital stock and social welfare when risk-sharing externalities are incorporated into the infinite-horizon model where endowment risks are endogenized by the degree of incomplete market participation. There exist Nash equilibria depending on the degree of market participation. Under equilibrium with incomplete market participation, the endowment risks cannot be fully diversified as they induce precautionary savings and the over-accumulation of capital stocks while spillover effects on production technologies lead to the under-accumulation of capital stocks. This may have desirable effects on economic growth and improve social welfare.     

Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in Colombian manufacturing industries

This paper explores a period of substantial variation in trade policy across industries in Colombia (1977-1991) to examine whether increased exposure to foreign competition generates productivity gains for manufacturing plants. Using an estimation methodology that addresses the shortcomings of previous studies, we find a strong positive impact of tariff liberalization on plant productivity, even after controlling for plant and industry heterogeneity, real exchange rates, and cyclical effects. The impact of liberalization is stronger for larger plants and plants in less competitive industries. Our findings are not driven by the endogeneity of protection. Similar results are obtained when using effective rates of protection and import penetration ratios as measures of protection. Productivity gains under trade liberalization are linked to increases in intermediate inputs' imports, skill intensity, and machinery investments, and to output reallocations from less to more productive plants.     

Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade

This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980-1997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cross-country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms. Moreover, it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event-study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period. Finally, the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets, indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system. Similarly, opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies.     

我国自贸区与期货市场发展相关的政策、实践及启示

我国已经挂牌运行的自贸区进行了各项金融制度创新的先行先试,与期货市场相关的改革也在进行中。通过梳理我国自贸区与期货市场发展相关的政策法规,总结出目前我国自贸区发展与期货市场对接的主要业务实践有期货保税交割、引入境外企业参与特定品种期货交易、探索创新型交易所和设立期货子公司开展风险管理业务。根据已有实践情况,建议未来我国期货交易所可在自贸区内加快进行保税交割业务试点、研发特定品种上市、改革交易及管理制度、探索新的交易平台。     

Market presence, contestability, and the terms-of-trade effects of regional integration

This paper examines the impact of market presence and contestability on the price behavior of US exporters in Brazil’s market when MERCOSUR and MFN trade liberalization take place. Using detailed panel data on trade and tariff rates, we find that both the preferred supplier’s market presence and threat of entry lower (raise) the US price reaction to MFN (preferential) trade liberalization, with similar quantitative effects. Thus, presence in, or threat of entry into, partners’ markets implies lower optimal MFN tariffs, and regional agreements can have pro-competitive effects in contestable markets. We also examine the ‘symmetry’ hypothesis between the effect of tariffs and exchange rates.