The probability conflation: A reply to Tetlock et al.

We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing (1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk and (2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail-risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory). More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.     

Gomulka on the soft budget constraint: A reply

Conclusion The preceding two sections of this note cover the main points at issue. There are some other, lesser matters, but these need not detain us here. To repeat: I have found Dr Gomulka's comments constructive and stimulating. They will, I am sure, be helpful both in my future research and in future expositions of my ideas.     

The road to foreign language competency in the United States: A leadership perspective

A prevailing thought regarding foreign language competency (FLC) is that it can lead to an advantaged workforce by improving performance, especially in service‐oriented professions. This prevailing thought is logical, considering banking, hospitality and tourism, social services, sales, and health care industries. Foreign language teachers, training and development professionals, workforce education professionals, and government agencies (e.g., the military) all play a leading role in the effort to improve FLC in segments of the U.S. workforce. Workplace learning and performance (WLP) establishes the framework for companies that can quantitatively demonstrate that having a foreign‐language‐competent staff will increase performance and company profits (or value for the nonprofit sector). Leadership competencies guide the function of workplace foreign language training and development and has a direct impact on the success of achieving workplace FLC. In addition, scenarios demonstrating how a foreign‐language‐competent staff might improve overall company performance are explored. Methods of conducting appropriate assessments prior to implementing a workplace foreign language training and development program are addressed.     

A road to assimilation: immigrants and financial markets

This paper compares the financial market participation of immigrants and native-born Americans. Financial asset ownership is examined after controlling for the immigrants’ country of origin using a nationally representative National Longitudinal Survey (NLSY79) data set. The determinants of preference for financial asset ownership and the amount of financial equity held by households are estimated using a two-stage procedure. The results indicate that immigrants are less likely to own financial assets and more likely to have lower financial equity than native-born residents. Income uncertainty and risk tolerance of immigrants are associated with their preference for financial investments. Immigrants’ years of residence in the United States also increase their financial asset ownership. A discussion of the implications of these findings for policy makers, immigration researchers, and scholars of household savings behavior is also included.     

楼市回暖任重道远

楼市什么时候回暖?笔者认为,眼下的楼市,回暖并不是开发商或购房者单方所能决定的,一定是双方博弈的结果,而两种力量的平衡点就是楼市底部。一个行业的健康发展,需要买卖双方的共赢。然而,在房地产行业,多数开发商往往最大限度地把升值预期套现,拿走利润而把风险留给购房者(尤其是商业地产和投资型住宅)。这种行为导致了楼市买卖双方的对立。所以,当楼市低迷、     

Variables and scaling — A reply

Quality & Quantity -     

The case for road pricing

The argument in principle for pricing the use of road space rests on firm intellectual foundations. The necessary technology is readily available. Public acceptance of the idea, with the concomitant need for investment in new roads, is subject to much confusion, reinforced by Nimbyism on one side and Swampyism on the other.     

Power learning: racing ahead of your competition

Adhering to accepted practices, not wanting to rock the boat, and squelching dissenting opinions sentence organizations to a repetition of their mistakes. To be successful, organizations must continually learn. Organizations that learn are competitive. They are on the leading edge. They create their own futures instead of being created by their futures. The objective of this article is to present a new approach to learning that greatly enhances the quality of training and educational programs. The key subjects include learning styles, left and right brain processing, and the 4MAT System. In addition, two brief case studies are presented.     

Europe in the year 2000: three pitfalls ahead

This paper analyses three problems facing the EU in the near future: (1) A move towards majority decision-making would impose costs upon the minority and restrict freedom. (2) A European Bill of Rights would give the European Court more centralising power. (3) European determination to strengthen and separate its own military forces within NATO bodes badly for the future of the Organisation.     

Sustainable Entrepreneurship Research: Taking Stock and looking ahead

The recognition of entrepreneurship as a solution to, rather than a cause of, environmental degradation and social inequality moved the field to identify a new type of entrepreneurial activity, namely sustainable entrepreneurship. Scholarly interest has spiked in recent years; however, aside from its aspirational appeal, there remains a lack of understanding of the nature of the phenomenon and the future of sustainable entrepreneurship in theory and practice. This review seeks to provide a conceptual basis for stimulating scholarly thought and improving our collective understanding of sustainable entrepreneurship as a distinct subdomain within entrepreneurship research. Based on boundary definition and delineation of main features, this review critically discusses the main challenges ahead and elaborates on the research implications and future research directions beyond current, dominant approaches to entrepreneurial action. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

The political feasibility of road pricing

Attitudes to road pricing at last are showing signs of change. In addition, the existing road-building and public transport lobbies are now becoming matched by the growth of information technology. Development from now on must be at local level, and the time is now ripe to re-examine the interests involved so as to maximise satisfaction.