International migration,remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador

We examine the effect of remittances from abroad on households' schooling decisions using data for El Salvador. Following the massive war-related emigration of the 1980s, remittances became a significant source of household income throughout the 1990s. We use the Cox proportional hazard model to examine the determinants of school attendance. Measuring income from a source that is uncorrelated with parental schooling—remittances—, we find that remittances have a large, significant effect on school retention. We estimate that while household income net of remittances has a small, though significant, impact on the hazard of leaving school in rural and urban areas, remittances have a much larger impact on the hazard of leaving school. In urban areas, the effect of remittances is, at its smallest, 10 times the size of the effect of other income. In rural areas, the effect of remittances is about 2.6 times that of other income. Our finding is of interest in that it suggests that subsidizing school attendance, particularly in poor areas, may have a large impact on school attendance and retention, even if parents have low levels of schooling.     

Comparing risk aversion in a probability triangle

An agent's acceptance set consists of the probability distributions preferred to the status quo. One agent is more risk averse than another if the more risk averse agent's acceptance set is a proper subset of the less risk averse agent's acceptance set. An agent's odds premium expresses the odds in favor of winning the largest cash prize in a lottery over the best and worst alternatives that is indifferent to the the agent's initial wealth. Comparisons of two agents odds premia completely characterizes the risk aversion relations between them when facing lotteries in a probability triangle. The result applies to expected utility and some non-expected utility theories. Received: December 30, 1998; revised version: February 10, 1999     

Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries

We report an experiment in which subjects are not indifferent between real-money lotteries implemented with randomization devices that are equivalent under the Reduction Axiom. Instead, choice behavior is consistent with subjective distortion of conditional probability, and this persists in treatment conditions that control for (i) computational limitations and (ii) possible confounding by ratio bias.     

Poverty and resource dependence in rural India

Previous studies of rural households in developing countries have tended to find that the dependence of these households on common-pool resources declines with income. Our study of households in Jhabua, India, finds a more complex relationship. Using the share of resource income in total long-run or “permanent” income as our dependence measure—which we argue is more appropriate than the short-run income-based measure commonly used in the literature—we find that for households that collect any resources at all, dependence exhibits a U-shaped relationship with income. That is, the poorest and richest households depend more on resources than households with intermediate incomes. The poorest and richest households are also found to be least likely to collect, however, indicating that resource use at the income extremes is bimodal—either zero or above average. Moreover, the observed trends for resources as a whole are not mirrored in those for individual resources. Dependence on fuelwood and dung declines with income, for example, while dependence on fodder and construction wood increases. These findings suggest that common-pool resources are a productive source of income not just for the poor but also for the rich, and that improvements in the stocks of these resources can potentially form the basis of poverty reduction efforts in these economies.     

Caste, Inequality, and Poverty in India

This paper analyses inequality and poverty in India within the context of caste‐based discrimination. It does so by decomposing the difference between (caste) Hindu and Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) households in: their average household incomes; their probabilities of being in different income percentiles; their probabilities of being at different levels of poverty into: a “discrimination effect”, which stems from the fact that a household's income level, into which its (income‐generating) profile translates, depends on whether it is SC/ST; an “attributes (or residual) effect” which stems from the fact that there are systematic differences between SC/ST and Hindu households in their (income‐generating) profiles. The results, based on unit record data for 28,922 households, showed that at least one‐third of the average income/probability differences between Hindu and SC/ST households was due to the “unequal treatment” of the latter.     

Ambiguity aversion among student subjects: the role of probability interval and emotional parameters

In the literature on decision-making under uncertainty, it has been shown that decision-makers tend to prefer taking gambles with known-risk probabilities (pure risk) over equivalent gambles with ambiguous probabilities. This article contributes to the ongoing discussion in the literature on cognitive and non-cognitive covariates of ambiguity aversion. Through a series of experiments, it finds that subjects are more ambiguity-averse to prospects with wide probability intervals than to an equivalent prospect with narrow intervals, and that subjects’ inherent trust, happiness and level of optimism affect the level of ambiguity aversion.     

Gender Pay and Occupational-Attainment Gaps in Costa Rica and El Salvador: A Relative Comparison of the Late 1980s

This study investigates gender occupational attainment and earnings differentials in El Salvador and Costa Rica at the end of the 1980s. During this decade, El Salvador experienced a civil war and an economic depression. Costa Rica was also mired in a recession in the early 1980s, but programs adopted in the mid-1980s led to rapid economic recovery. It is found that the gender pay gap in El Salvador is 30.4% and 23.6% in Costa Rica. The intercountry difference in the gap disappears after accounting for high gender differences in occupational attainment and hours worked in El Salvador.     

Macroeconomic Crises and Poverty Monitoring: A Case Study for India

Survey-based welfare indicators can fluctuate over time in ways which have little to do with macroeconomic changes in the economy. So basing policy decisions on short-term movements in such welfare indicators can be hazardous. There was a sharp increase in India's poverty measures in the aftermath of the mid-1991 crisis and the ensuing stabilization program. However, only one-tenth of the increase in measured poverty is explicable in terms of the variables one would expect to transmit the shock to poor people. Poverty measures soon returned to their pre-reform levels, belying the notion of a structural break induced by reforms.     

A Behavior‐Based Approach to the Estimation of Poverty in India

Estimates of poverty in India are crucial inputs for the understanding of world poverty, yet there is much disagreement about the numbers and the legitimacy of methods used to derive them. In this paper, we propose and justify an alternative approach to identify the poor, which uses the proportion of income spent on food. Our estimates have weaker data requirements than official methods, and they compare favorably with several validation tests. Most notably, households around our state poverty lines obtain their calories from similar sources, whereas this is not true of official poverty lines. We also find that rates of self‐reported hunger are higher in states that we classify as poor.     

The probability,size and uses of remittances from urban to rural areas in India

This paper examines the important determinants of the decision to remit and of the amount remitted by migrants in Delhi to their place of origin. The findings are compared with those obtained for Kenya by Knowles and Anker. The comparative exercise helps us to identify universal patterns of remittance behaviour from those which are time, place and sample specific. The paper also throws light on the validity of infering technological change in agriculture in rural areas from data on uses of remittances.     

Reducing ambiguity in lotteries: evidence from a field experiment

Ambiguity about the chances of winning represents a key aspect in lotteries. By means of a controlled field experiment, we exogenously vary the degree of ambiguity about the winning chances of lotteries organized to incentivize the contribution for a public good. In one treatment, people have been simply informed about the maximum number of potential participants (i.e. the number of lottery tickets released). In a second treatment, this information has been omitted as in all traditional lotteries. Our general finding shows that simply reducing the degree of ambiguity of the lottery leads to a sizable and significant increase (67%) in the participation rate. This result is robust to alternative prize configurations.     

Adam Smith on lotteries: an interpretation and formal restatement

The paper concerns a neglected aspect of the Wealth of Nations (with the notable exception of D. Levy 1999 Levy, D. M. 1999. “Adam Smith’s Katallactic Model of Gambling: Approbation from the Spectator.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21 (1): 81–91. doi:10.1017/S1053837200002868.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), dealing directly with decision under risk. In a few pages from book I, chapter 10, Adam Smith explicitly named “lotteries” various objects of choice (possible occupations, or investment opportunities, for instance) and provided an analysis which standard expected utility glasses would hardly fit. Taking this into account allows a better understanding of the part played by typical characters like the “projector” or the “sober man”, in such matters as Smith’s conception of entrepreneurship or of the credit market. The use of some modern concepts in decision analysis (inverse stochastic dominance, rank dependent utility, prudence toward risk), is a means to show the existence, in Smith’s work, of an original theory from decision under risk, where his analysis of lotteries in the Wealth of Nations is consistent with statements from his moral philosophy on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses and to the regulating part played by the impartial spectator.     

Consuming your way to efficiency: Public goods provision through non-distortionary tax lotteries

We revisit the classical result that taxation of private consumption is distortionary and therefore precludes the efficient provision of public goods. We introduce a nonlinear consumption tax which we call a ‘tax lottery’. Under this scheme, an ad-valorem consumption tax is supplemented with a lottery in which consumers can win cash prizes. The winning probabilities in this lottery depend on all consumers' private good consumption decisions. We show that for a given ad-valorem tax, an appropriately designed lottery can implement an efficient allocation in pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. The lottery component corrects the distortion in private consumption due to the ad-valorem tax, while the resulting tax revenue is sufficient to efficiently provide the public good and pay out the lottery prize.     

Disentangling the Poverty Effects of Sectoral Output,Prices, and Policies in India

This paper attempts to disentangle the poverty effects of key policy variables that directly affect the poor (namely the government‐led channel of development spending and financing) in both agricultural and non‐agricultural sectors after accounting for the effect of respective sectoral per capita income and prices, using data from India over five decades. The paper emphasizes the sectoral composition of income and prices as mechanisms influencing the level of poverty and establishes empirically that it is the rise in non‐agricultural per capita income that reduces rural poverty via the channel of internal migration, after having controlled for the variation in key components of fiscal spending and monetary/financial policy via the availability of credit. Uneven sectoral growth pattern explains why urban poverty becomes a spill‐over of persistent rural poverty when the agricultural sector shrinks. While checking for robustness, there is evidence that the rise in non‐agricultural income alone may not reduce rural poverty, when measured in terms of rural infant mortality rate as a non‐income indicator of well‐being.     

Poverty,undernutrition and vulnerability in rural India: role of rural public works and food for work programmes

This paper analyses the effects of access to Rural Public Works (RPW) or Food for Work programme (FFW) on consumption poverty, vulnerability and undernutrition in India using the large household data sets constructed by the National Sample Survey for 1993 and 2004. The treatment-effects model is used to take account of sample selection bias in evaluating the effects of RPW in 1993 or FFW in 2004 on poverty. We have found significant and negative effects of participation in RPW and the Food for Work Programme on poverty, undernutrition (e.g. protein) and vulnerability in 1993 and 2004.     

Risk aversion and allocation to long-term bonds

As risk aversion approaches infinity, the portfolio of an investor with utility over consumption at time T is shown to converge to the portfolio consisting entirely of a bond maturing at time T. Previous work on bond allocation requires a specific model for equities, the term structure, and the investor's utility function. In contrast, the only substantive assumption required for the analysis in this paper is that markets are complete. The result, which holds regardless of the underlying investment opportunities and the utility function, formalizes the “preferred habitat” intuition of Modigliani and Sutch (Amer. Econom. Rev. 56 (1966) 178).     

Last word not yet spoken: a reinvestigation of last place aversion with aversion to rank reversals

Experimental Economics - Preferences over social ranks have emerged as potential drivers of weaker than expected support for redistributive interventions among those closest to the bottom of the...     

The distribution of money and prices in an equilibrium with lotteries

Summary. We construct a tractable fundamental model of money with equilibrium heterogeneity in money balances and prices. We do so by considering randomized monetary trades in a standard search-theoretic model of money where agents can hold multiple units of indivisible tokens and can offer lotteries on monetary transfers. By studying a simple trading pattern, we can analytically characterize the monetary distribution. Interestingly, such distributions match those observed in numerically simulated economies with fully divisible money and price heterogeneity.Received: 16 April 2003, Revised: 11 February 2004JEL Classification Numbers: D30, D83, E40.A. Berentsen, G. Camera, C. Waller: The paper has benefitted from insightful comments of two anonymous referees, whom we thank. We also thank participants at the conference Recent Developments in Money and Finance, held at Purdue University in May 2003, and the EPRI/University of Western Ontario Money Conference held in October 2003. Correrspondence to: G. Camera