《孔子诗论》、《荀子》及先秦儒学思想的历史脉络

《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》有一脉相承的联系。在对于"情"以及"情"与"乐"关系的认识层面上,关于《诗》与礼的论述中以及关于《诗》的艺术特征上,它们的"《诗》论"都具有一致性。《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》"《诗》论"的相似性、《荀子》与毛鲁韩三家《诗经》传授联系以及《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《毛诗序》的相似性,则非常有力地印证并丰富了孔子——七十子——七十子后学——荀孟——汉儒这一条先秦儒学经籍传授以及思想延续的主线。     

《孔子诗论》、《荀子》及先秦儒学思想的历史脉络

《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》有一脉相承的联系。在对于"情"以及"情"与"乐"关系的认识层面上,关于《诗》与礼的论述中以及关于《诗》的艺术特征上,它们的"《诗》论"都具有一致性。《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》"《诗》论"的相似性、《荀子》与毛鲁韩三家《诗经》传授联系以及《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《毛诗序》的相似性,则非常有力地印证并丰富了孔子——七十子——七十子后学——荀孟——汉儒这一条先秦儒学经籍传授以及思想延续的主线。     

Religion and Female Educational Attainment

The paper reviews the literature on the education, gender, and religion nexuses and identifies plausible hypotheses that religion adversely affects female education. The link between major religions and female educational attainment is examined using the Barro-Lee data set for a sample of 97 countries. The estimates include control variables for colonial heritage, urbanization, labor force participation, and young adult mortality. The estimates show powerful negative links between female educational attainment and the proportion of ethnoreligions, Hindu, and Muslim adherents in a country, with similar results for the gender gap. The paper offers some interpretative thoughts and research agendas.     

2010年10月国内金融形势评述

2010年10月，货币信贷增速有所回升，金融体系继续保持平稳健康。主要特点是：各层次货币增速有所回升；贷款投放保持平稳，短期贷款多增较多；企业存款增速继续回升，储蓄存款明显分流；银行间市场交易活跃，市场利率有所回落；海外市场对人民币升值预期明显增强。     

我国入境旅游客源市场特征研究

入境旅游客源市场的快速发展是我国入境旅游业发展的重要源泉。本文以来华外国旅游流作为分析对象,运用地理集中指数、客源市场竞争态模型等分析方法,定量研究了2001—2011年我国入境旅游客源市场的特征。结果表明：我国入境旅游核心客源市场分别是韩国、日本、俄罗斯、美国。其中,日俄美三国市场占有率总体呈现下降趋势;韩日美三国市场增长率总体也呈现下降趋势;2002—2011年我国入境旅游客源市场竞争格局处于不断变化中,且变化较大;我国入境旅游客源市场在空间上主要集中在幼童市场和瘦狗市场,而在明星市场和金牛市场的分布则较少。     

农业供应链金融风险的主要特征与风险防范的基本原则

我国农业供应链突出表现为“集体化”、“现代化”和“生态化”,资金的安全性、流动性和信用程度都需要整体协同管控。交易成本和信息不对称决定了我国农业供应链以间接融资为主,其金融风险的特征主要表现为道德风险突出、整体风险难识别、可能引致区域系统性风险和行业系统性风险。因此,应当因地制宜确定农业供应链金融支持项目,并运用系统论原理控制农业供应链金融风险。     

Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.     

财政存款、银行竞争与僵尸企业形成

银行以优惠利率贷款为低质企业“输血”,是企业僵尸化的重要成因。然而,基于中国背景的文献,对银行“输血”动机的研究并不充分,本文从地方财政存款影响银行信贷分配的视角,分析僵尸企业形成的内在机理。首先,通过构建理论模型对银行竞争财政存款及影响企业融资和投资绩效进而僵尸化的逻辑进行刻画,而后依据省份财政存款、银行竞争与微观企业财务数据,对理论推论进行了验证。研究发现,财政存款占当地存款比重越大,企业僵尸化概率越高,并且银行竞争助长了企业僵尸化。此外,基于工具变量估计处理了核心变量的内生性问题,并进行了多种稳健性检验。机制检验表明,财政存款的信贷分配效应,促使企业过度投资,导致经营绩效恶化,进而提高了企业僵尸化概率,银行竞争则会加剧该效应。本文拓展了财政存款的经济效应与僵尸企业形成方面的文献,对于僵尸企业治理有一定参考意义。     

Empirical properties of large covariance matrices

The salient properties of large empirical covariance and correlation matrices are studied for three datasets of size 54, 55 and 330. The covariance is defined as a simple cross product of the returns, with weights that decay logarithmically slowly. The key general properties of the covariance matrices are the following. The spectrum of the covariance is very static, except for the top three to 10 eigenvalues, and decay exponentially fast toward zero. The mean spectrum and spectral density show no particular feature that would separate ‘meaningful’ from ‘noisy’ eigenvalues. The spectrum of the correlation is more static, with three to five eigenvalues that have distinct dynamics. The mean projector of rank k on the leading subspace shows that a large part of the dynamics occurs in the eigenvectors. Together, this implies that the reduction of the covariance to a few leading static eigenmodes misses most of the dynamics. Finally, all the analysed properties of the dynamics of the covariance and correlation are similar. This indicates that a covariance estimator correctly evaluates both volatilities and correlations, and separate estimators are not required.     

浅谈外汇管理条例中的"双罚制"

"双罚制"原本是一个刑法学上的概念,后其法律精神被行政法所吸收并应用.2008年8月5日颁布的<中华人民共和国外汇管理条例>中也采用了该制度,对直接负责的主管人员和其他直接责任人员实施处罚.如何正确认定违规机构与其责任人员的法律责任,合理界定直接负责的主管人员和其他直接责任人员的范围,是外汇管理机关依法行政的基础.     

从普遍“类本质”到具体的“历史化”——《1844年经济学-哲学手稿》中“异化”思想探微

异化理论是马克思《手稿》中影响最大的理论,本文从异化的内涵及表现、异化的成因及解决为切入点,探讨了《手稿》的"马克思主义"与之后的"马克思主义"思想之差异。本文认为,《资本论》的马克思主义才是真正重要的马克思主义,而《手稿》只是准备之作,马克思本人后来对其中的观点多有发展、修正。     

Early evidence on balloon performance

Balloon loans have become increasingly popular in recent years. For this reason, it is important to understand their features, assess their potential risks, and monitor their early performance. This article focuses on these topics. The first section discusses balloon characteristics and mortgage choice. The second section discusses expected balloon performance. The third section provides an econometric model for monitoring current performance. The fourth and fifth sections describe the data and results, respectively. The final section summarizes the article and offers some concluding remarks. The fundamental conclusions are that (1) early balloon performance is slightly worse than expected (i.e., balloons are not matching fixed-rate performance prior to balloon reset dates); (2) balloon performance is, however, within the range expected over the full term of the loans (i.e., performance worse than fixed-rate performance, but better than ARM performance); and (3) balloons have important characteristics that help mitigate systematic risk.     

财政存款、银行竞争与僵尸企业形成

银行以优惠利率贷款为低质企业“输血”,是企业僵尸化的重要成因。然而,基于中国背景的文献,对银行“输血”动机的研究并不充分,本文从地方财政存款影响银行信贷分配的视角,分析僵尸企业形成的内在机理。首先,通过构建理论模型对银行竞争财政存款及影响企业融资和投资绩效进而僵尸化的逻辑进行刻画,而后依据省份财政存款、银行竞争与微观企业财务数据,对理论推论进行了验证。研究发现,财政存款占当地存款比重越大,企业僵尸化概率越高,并且银行竞争助长了企业僵尸化。此外,基于工具变量估计处理了核心变量的内生性问题,并进行了多种稳健性检验。机制检验表明,财政存款的信贷分配效应,促使企业过度投资,导致经营绩效恶化,进而提高了企业僵尸化概率,银行竞争则会加剧该效应。本文拓展了财政存款的经济效应与僵尸企业形成方面的文献,对于僵尸企业治理有一定参考意义。     

贷款准备金政策框架下的区域货币政策独立性

美国次贷危机引发这轮全球性金融危机凸显了以美国为核心的金融资本主义模式和以美元为核心国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区建设不可避免会陷入三元悖论困境。本文提出在贷款准备金政策框架下,货币区能在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员仍能保持货币政策独立性。     

Impact of Earnings,Dividends and Cash Flows on Stock Returns: Case of Taiwan's Stock Market

The study uses Taiwan's stock market, a newly developed market with different characteristics from that of the U.S., as an experimental case to examine the influences of the market's characteristics on the relationship between stock returns and fundamental accounting information, such as earnings, dividends and cash flows. The testing period is from 1990 to 1994, right after the promulgation of Taiwan's accounting standard for statement of cash flows in 1989.Similar to the findings of U.S. studies, the study shows that earnings data is key information for investors. Unlike the U.S. results, however, both operating income and non-operating income are positively related to stock returns. The usefulness of non-operating income to explain stock returns is due mainly to its recurrent characteristic in Taiwan. The market views non-operating income, mostly from disposal of real-estate and short-term equity investments, as a complementary factor to operating income. It is a possible common phenomenon in a booming economy. Unlike from the results of U.S. studies, Taiwan's stock returns are strongly associated with stock dividends. Cash dividends, however, are relatively less important information to the market. The fast booming economy as well as Taiwan's free tax rate on capital gains are the explanations for the different findings. The results also support McNicholes and Dravid's (1990) and etc. results that stock dividends may act as a signal for favorable future earnings. Examining the association between stock returns and cash flow information, the results indicate that stock returns are positively associated with cash flows from both operating and financing activities. The phenomenon implies that the market appreciates not only the cash inflows from operating activities, but also cash inflows from new issues of bonds or stocks for further expansion. It is consistent to Taiwan's booming economy. The finding also supports Ross (1977) and Leland and Pyles' (1977) signaling hypothesis.The study concludes that the relationships between stock returns and fundamental variables are subject to the market's characteristics. The case of the Taiwan stock market shows that usefulness of accounting information depends upon the different roles of the information in the tested market. The results of the study also indicate that directly applying the U.S. experiences without any adjustment may cause incorrect conclusions for empirical studies.     

Evaluating interpretable machine learning predictions for cryptocurrencies

This study explores various machine learning and deep learning applications on financial data modelling, analysis and prediction processes. The main focus is to test the prediction accuracy of cryptocurrency hourly returns and to explore, analyse and showcase the various interpretability features of the ML models. The study considers the six most dominant cryptocurrencies in the market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Cardano, Ripple and Litecoin. The experimental settings explore the formation of the corresponding datasets from technical, fundamental and statistical analysis. The paper compares various existing and enhanced algorithms and explains their results, features and limitations. The algorithms include decision trees, random forests and ensemble methods, SVM, neural networks, single and multiple features N-BEATS, ARIMA and Google AutoML. From experimental results, we see that predicting cryptocurrency returns is possible. However, prediction algorithms may not generalise for different assets and markets over long periods. There is no clear winner that satisfies all requirements, and the main choice of algorithm will be tied to the user needs and provided resources.     

The extent of nonstationarity of beta

This paper investigates the extent of nonstationarity of beta across the firm size and the beta magnitude by suggesting the sequential parameter stationarity model and estimating change-points of betas. The high-beta firm has shorter stationary interval, which means that its beta changes more frequently than do the low-beta firm's. The firm size, however, does not have a monotonic relation with the length of stationary interval. The small and large firms have relatively shorter stationary interval than do the mid-sized firms. The average length of stationary interval is estimated about five years (exactly 54.19 months). This fact could support the currently widely-used arbitrary 5-year assumption of beta stationarity. The fluctuation of the large firm's beta is more severe than the small firm's, and the high- and low-beta firms have the relatively greater fluctuating betas than do the mid-beta firms. The frequency of detected change-points is found to be positively related to market returns. When the market return is high, the systematic risk changes more frequently, and vice versa.     

Foreign direct investment,exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth contrary to some studies, which found that FDI does not cause economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government could stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy.     

影响国际货币政策协诟有效性的主客观因素

影响国际货币政策协调有效性的因素有很多,这些因素可以区分为客观和主观两个方面。其中,客观方面的因素主要有经济开放度、出口商定价方式、外部冲击、国际金融市场的完善程度、政策制定者信息、汇率传递速度、贸易结构的非对称性等;主观方面的因素包括市场主体理性预期、政策制定者动机、强势国家主导、搭便车行为和时间不一致性、经济运行的不确定性、中央银行外汇市场联合干预等。文章结合国内外研究文献对这些因素的影响机理进行评述。     

Efecto de las estrategias competitivas y los recursos y capacidades orientados al mercado sobre el crecimiento de las organizaciones

This study analyzes the relationships between market forces, competitive strategies, market orientation, innovation, technological resources and capabilities, and organizational performance. The study was made in small firms (SMEs) in the industrial sector in the State of Queretaro with a non-probabilistic convenience sampling. A structural model was designed to test the variable relationships, using Amos software. The sample size was 116 and interviews were applied to collect data. To measure market forces, competitive strategies and market orientation Kohli and Jaworsky (1990), Segev (1987) and Narver and Slater (1990) scales were used. The items to measure technological and innovation capabilities and organizational performance were designed. The results of the study show that market forces have a significant impact on the competitive strategy, a non-significant impact on resources and capabilities and a negative one on performance, this last one being measured by organizational growth. The effect of competitive strategy is significant on market orientation, technological and innovation resources and capabilities and non-significant on organizational performance. These resources and capabilities have a significant influence on organizational performance. The results of this research emphasize the implementation of prospecting and analyzing strategies that create resources and capabilities which give value such as market orientation, technology and innovation, with economical benefits for organizations.