Factors determining awareness and knowledge of aquatic invasive species

Public perceptions of invasive species may influence policies and programs initiated by public and private stakeholders. We investigate the determinants of the public's awareness and knowledge of invasive species as few studies have examined this relationship. We focus on aquatic invasive species (AIS) and employ survey data from property owners in a lake district. A major contribution is that we estimate a mixed trivariate binary-ordered probit regression model that accommodates correlations among unobserved characteristics, produces statistically more efficient estimates, and allows a more proper investigation of the probability of knowledge conditional on awareness. Our results provide insights for invasive species education and management programs. We find that individuals are more likely to be aware of AIS if they participate in water-based recreation, visit lakes outside their area, have a boat, belong to a lake association, or are college educated. This has a policy implication: Given high levels of AIS awareness by those most involved in activities around lakes and those with a higher education, it may be beneficial to target informational campaigns at those who do not display these characteristics, so that they can better make informed decisions about whether to support and expend money on invasive species management programs.     

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities.The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.     

The determinants of trade credit use: the case of the Tanzanian rice market

Most small businesses in the developing economies suffer from a lack of access to formal external finance. One important alternative source of finance for these entrepreneurs is trade credit. Applying a unique data-set containing data on specific trade relations between rice wholesalers and rice retailers in Tanzania, we analyse the determinants of trade credit demand and supply in this market, using a simultaneous equation modelling approach. The analysis shows that while the demand for trade credit is primarily determined by the extent to which retailers need external funds, supply is mainly driven by wholesalers’ incentives to attract and keep clients. Moreover, wholesalers’ willingness to provide credit increases if they have better information about the possibility that the customer will fail to repay the credit.     

Bounding the benefits of stochastic auditing: The case of risk-neutral agents

Summary. In the context of a costly-state-verification model with a risk-neutral agent having limited liability, it has been postulated that allowing stochastic auditing reduces the asymmetric information problem to a trivial one: i.e., the first best can be approached arbitrarily closely with feasible contracts. This paper proves the postulate to be false: the surplus from feasible contracts is bounded strictly below the first-best surplus level. The bound is straightforward to compute in examples. The paper thus removes a justification for the restriction to deterministic auditing commonly made in the literature. Received: July 18, 1997; revised version: February 23, 1998     

The motor vehicle industry in an emerging nation: the case of Brazil

As in other emerging nations, in Brazil, the motor vehicle industry is considered to be strategically important for economic development because of its backward and forward linkages and possibilities for export-led growth. This study analyses prospects for the industry by estimating an industry-level cost function that includes output of both vehicles and component parts with capital, labour and intermediate goods as inputs. The cost elasticity of output (an indicator of scale properties) and the elasticity relationships among inputs are explored. One unexpected outcome of the work that appears to be robust is that during early years of the study period, the industry had constant returns or even diseconomies of scale. However, during later years, when output was greater, there were economies of scale. This finding is likely the result of some combination of the entry of new firms, the development of new models or technological change. The study concludes that if firm output can be increased, economies of scale can be expected to strengthen the position of the Brazilian industry in the international marketplace.     

The cost implications of an early versus delayed invasive strategy in acute coronary syndromes: the TIMACS study

Background:

The Timing of Intervention in Acute Coronary Syndromes (TIMACS) trial demonstrated that early invasive intervention (within 24 hours) was similar to a delayed approach (after 36 hours) overall but improved outcomes were seen in patients at high risk. However, the cost implications of an early versus delayed invasive strategy are unknown.

Methods and results:

A third-party perspective of direct cost was chosen and United States Medicare costs were calculated using average diagnosis related grouping (DRG) units. Direct medical costs included those of the index hospitalization (including clinical, procedural and hospital stay costs) as well as major adverse cardiac events during 6 months of follow-up. Sensitivity and sub-group analyses were performed. The average total cost per patient in the early intervention group was lower compared with the delayed intervention group (?$1170; 95% CI ?$2542 to $202). From the bootstrap analysis (5000 replications), the early invasive approach was associated with both lower costs and better clinical outcomes regarding death/myocardial infarction (MI)/stroke in 95.1% of the cases (dominant strategy). In high-risk patients (GRACE score ≥141), the net reduction in cost was greatest (?$3720; 95% CI ?$6270 to ?$1170). Bootstrap analysis revealed 99.8% of cases were associated with both lower costs and better clinical outcomes (death/MI/stroke).

Limitations:

We were unable to evaluate the effect of community care and investigations without hospitalization (office visits, non-invasive testing, etc). Medication costs were not captured. Indirect costs such as loss of productivity and family care were not included.

Conclusions:

An early invasive management strategy is as effective as a delayed approach and is likely to be less costly in most patients with acute coronary syndromes.     

The feasibility of low inflation: theory with an application to the argentine case

In this paper we review the Argentine experience of hyperinflation, concentrating on understanding why stabilization took so long, and was only implemented by the most unlikely candidate. To explain these facts we present a voting model in which politicians' actions transmit information about the state of the economy and thus shape voters' behavior. We discuss the implications of the model for countries which are going through the same instability that characterized Argentina in the late 80s.     

Negative externalities on property values resulting from water impairment: The case of the Pigeon River Watershed

The objective of this research was to determine whether willingness to bear the negative externality from water quality impairment differs between those who do and those who do not receive economic benefit from the impairment source. Differences were tested using a hedonic analysis of ambient water quality in two discrete housing markets in the Pigeon River Watershed, which have been polluted by the operation of a paper mill. The results suggest that North Carolina residents residing in subwatersheds with impaired portions of the Pigeon River, who experience economic benefit from the paper mill in addition to its harmful effects on water quality, do perceive the pollution as a negative externality. In contrast, the effects of both the degraded river and its contributing streams on property values are perceived as negative externalities by watershed residents in Tennessee who experience only harmful effects from the pollution. Differences in willingness to bear the water-impairment externality were not indicated by variables representing view of and proximity to impaired water bodies. The results suggest that the perception of water quality to which property owners implicitly apply value should be considered when establishing water-quality regulations.     

Modeling the impacts of international climate change policies in a CGE context: The use of the GTAP-E model

The anticipated implications of international environmental policy strategies are critical for the success or failure of international negotiations on climate change policies. In this paper, we discuss the complex modeling issues related to the incorporation of international environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version of this model addressing environmental and energy problems, viz. the GTAP-E model. Various numerical results of simulation experiments with this model at a worldwide scale will be presented. In particular, we will address the question how to include the frequently discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanisms in a computable general equilibrium model such as the GTAP-E model.     

Diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside the ICT market: The case of Japan

Under the new information society paradigm that emerged in the 1990s, contrary to its conspicuous achievement as an industrial society, Japan is experiencing a vicious cycle between non-elastic institutions and insufficient utilization of the potential benefits of information and communication technology (ICT).However, a dramatic deployment of mobile telephones with Internet access service such as NTT DoCoMo's i-mode service in the late 1990s provides encouragement that, once the potential is exploited, Japan's institutional systems can effectively stimulate the self-propagating nature of ICT. The rapid deployment of Internet Protocol (IP) mobile service in Japan can be attributed to worldwide advances in the utilization of personal computers (PCs) and the Internet. Thus, a complex technology web triggered by the dramatic advancement of PCs and the Internet and co-evolving diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism has emerged in the global ICT market, particularly in Japan's mobile communication business.The above observations prompt the hypothetical view that, despite a lack of institutional elasticity, recent advances in Japan's IP mobile service deployment can be attributed to a co-evolutionary dynamism between diffusion, substitution and competition inside the ICT market. Thus, policy questions could be how to create such a co-evolutionary dynamism by means of ICT innovation, enriched functions, reduced price and competitive environment.In order to demonstrate the foregoing hypothesis, an empirical analysis of the mechanism co-evolving diffusion, substitution and competition dynamism inside Japan's ICT market is attempted by utilizing four types of diffusion models identical to respective diffusion dynamics.     

Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles

According to intuition and theories of diffusion, consumer preferences develop along with technological change. However, most economic models designed for policy simulation unrealistically assume static preferences. To improve the behavioral realism of an energy–economy policy model, this study investigates the “neighbor effect,” where a new technology becomes more desirable as its adoption becomes more widespread in the market. We measure this effect as a change in aggregated willingness to pay under different levels of technology penetration. Focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), an online survey experiment collected stated preference (SP) data from 535 Canadian and 408 Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions.Revealed preference (RP) data was collected from the same respondents by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases from regions with different degrees of HEV popularity: Canada with 0.17% new market share, and California with 3.0% new market share. We compare choice models estimated from RP data only with three joint SP–RP estimation techniques, each assigning a different weight to the influence of SP and RP data in coefficient estimates. Statistically, models allowing more RP influence outperform SP influenced models. However, results suggest that because the RP data in this study is afflicted by multicollinearity, techniques that allow more SP influence in the beta estimates while maintaining RP data for calibrating vehicle class constraints produce more realistic estimates of willingness to pay. Furthermore, SP influenced coefficient estimates also translate to more realistic behavioral parameters for CIMS, allowing more sensitivity to policy simulations.     

The econometrics of the environmental Kuznets curve: an illustration using Australian CO2 emissions

Four econometric issues associated with the estimation and testing of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) are considered: (i) model specification with respect to the order of the polynomial, (ii) model specification with respect to the use of linear or log-linear specifications, (iii) integration and cointegration considerations, and (iv) missing variables and time trends. These issues are examined in reference to Australian data on four measures of CO2 emissions and three measures of per capita income. While evidence is provided for an inverted U-shaped EKC, the results cannot be generalized. It is concluded that without the use of sensitivity analysis, the results are typically fragile.     

The Swedish third way: an assessment of the performance and validity of the Rehn-Meidner model

This paper analyses the functioning of the Rehn–Meidnermodel in Sweden and the validity of the model's underlying theory.Both sceptics and friends of ‘the Swedish model’have exaggerated the effects of active labour market policyand solidarity wage policy on employment, inflation and growth.However, these policies have contributed to the reduction ofhysteresis effects and wage differentials in Sweden. Furthermore,Swedish experiences confirm the Rehn–Meidner view thatpositive demand shocks and expansionary macroeconomic policiesmake it difficult to combine full employment with price stability,economic growth and equity even if central wage negotiationsare coordinated and trade unions willingly accept wage restraint.     

Management of an annual fishery in the presence of ecological stress: The case of shrimp and hypoxia

The emergence of ecosystem-based management suggests that traditional fisheries management and protection of environmental quality are increasingly interrelated. Fishery managers, however, have limited control over most sources of marine and estuarine pollution and at best can only adapt to environmental conditions. We develop a bioeconomic model of optimal harvest of an annual species that is subject to an environmental disturbance. We parameterize the model to analyze the effect of hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) on the optimal harvest path of brown shrimp, a commercially important species that is fished in hypoxic waters in the Gulf of Mexico and in estuaries in the southeastern United States. We find that hypoxia alters the qualitative pattern of optimal harvest and shifts the season opening earlier in the year; more severe hypoxia leads to even earlier season openings. Failure to adapt to hypoxia leads to greater losses when the effects of hypoxia are more severe. However, rent gains from adapting fishery management to hypoxia are relatively small compared to rent losses from the hypoxia effect itself. This suggests that it is critical for other regulatory agencies to control estuarine pollution, and fishery managers need to generate value from the fishery resources through other means such as rationalization.     

The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis

To examine the impact of trade barrier reductions on the Chinese economy following its WTO accession, a single‐country, static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is constructed, which incorporates certain elements of imperfect competition in China's current economic situation. China's real GDP and total employment are expected to rise by small degrees, while the general price level may decline by a few percentage points. Total imports would rise by more than 10%, whereas total exports would increase far less. China's trade surplus is, therefore, likely to shrink substantially and its dependence upon foreign trade is likely to rise by a few percentage points. A sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the simulation results. A comparison with other CGE studies on China's trade liberalization also shows the plausibility of this study's predictions.

JEL Classification: F17, C68     

The framing of product ideas in the making: a case study of the development of an energy saving pump

Research regarding work with ideas in industrial settings has predominantly treated ideas as rather stable ‘black boxes’. This article contributes a new understanding of idea work and seeks to expand our understanding of how a product concept is constituted and synthesised through socio-material interaction of organisational members and engagement in idea work. The article contributes a case study of the development process behind the energy-saving Alpha Pro circulator launched by the Danish pump manufacturer Grundfos. Based on an analysis of how organisational players engage in the controversial and shifting understandings of what seems to constitute a successful product, the article offers a new perspective on navigating the players’ ideas in the political processes of innovation. It suggests that navigation of technological frames can offer a new perspective to make explicit the implicated actors’ world views, including what they perceive as relevant problems and related strategies for solving them.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

The effects of rising labour costs on global supply chains: the case of China’s cotton yarn industry

Rapid economic growth in China and India has resulted in rapidly rising labour costs in those countries. In this study a Muth-type model is used to assess the potential effects of this development on global supply chains using China’s cotton yarn industry as a case study. The model considers i) product differentiation at the yarn level; ii) imperfect competition in the markets for cotton yarn and raw cotton fibre, iii) input substitution between raw cotton fibre, labour, and capital; and iv) offsetting increases in the demand for cotton yarn caused by rising consumer income. Results suggest the effects of rising labour costs on the supply chain are modest, and easily swamped or obscured by the effects of rising income. Increases in industry market power (both oligopoly and oligopsony) have the same effect on the supply chain as increases in labour costs, raising prices to consumers of cotton yarn, and lowering prices to input suppliers, including foreign suppliers of raw cotton fibre. The combined effects of increases in labour costs and income have increased the factor shares for labour and to a lesser extent capital at the expense of raw cotton fibre.     

The relationship ageing of the population and saving in an unemployment context: Empirical evidence using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach

In this article, we emphasised that ageing population does not systematically depress savings by drawing attention to the factors that may distort that prediction of the life‐cycle hypothesis (LCH). To demonstrate it, we used two indicators for ageing: the total and aged dependency ratios and we looked at the economic context influence on national saving evolution through considering the labour market imbalance interference. By applying the autoregressive distributed lag approach, with Tunisian data during 1970–2018, a dynamic long‐run relationship between ageing and national saving is found, although it seemed to be sensitive to the used ageing indicator and the economic context. Indeed, the LCH is proved only by the total dependence ratio whereas the aged dependence ratio puts a significant long‐run upward pressure on saving. Further, in a context of unemployment without any benefit scheme, the LCH prediction cannot be endorsed by the two indicators. Hence, the social and economic conditions limit the LCH scope, bearing out that elderly not depress systematically savings. Therefore, to sustain saving major economic and financial reforms are needed, as to postpone the retirement age, to move from pay‐as‐you‐go system towards funded pension system, to promote life insurance and to diversify the long‐run savings products.