Mixed Strategy Play and the Minimax Hypothesis

This paper reports on a set of experiments designed to discriminate among the possible sources of the failure of the unique mixed strategy minimax equilibrium of the O'Neill (1987) game. This is accomplished by introducing a new methodology for eliciting mixed strategies, which overcomes some of the difficulties encountered by previous experimental studies. The results clearly show that subjects' choices do not coincide with their minimax strategies, and that players' intended behavior is not minimax. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C92.     

Minimax regret and strategic uncertainty

This paper introduces a new solution concept, a minimax regret equilibrium, which allows for the possibility that players are uncertain about the rationality and conjectures of their opponents. We provide several applications of our concept. In particular, we consider price-setting environments and show that optimal pricing policy follows a non-degenerate distribution. The induced price dispersion is consistent with experimental and empirical observations (Baye and Morgan (2004) [4]).     

不确定性与会计职业判断

市场经济是一个动态的、复杂的、开放的经济系统,在其运行过程中,存在着大量的不确定性因素.作为以价值形式对经济运行进行数量反映和质量分析的会计,必然存在着对会计职业进行判断的问题.本文从经济活动不确定性的成因与会计职业判断的项目要求的因果关系分析入手,强调提高会计人员的职业判断能力,减少经济活动的风险的必要性.     

Entrepreneurs, Professionals, and Growth

We examine the implications for growth and development of the existence of two types of human capital: entrepreneurial and professional. Entrepreneurs accumulate human capital through a work-experience intensive process, whereas professionals human capital accumulation is education-intensive. Moreover, the return to entrepreneurship is uncertain. We show how skill-biased technological progress leads to changes in the composition of aggregate human capital; as technology improves, individuals devote less time to the accumulation of human capital through work experience and more to the accumulation of human capital through professional training. Thus, our model explains why entrepreneurs play a relatively more important role in intermediate-income countries and professionals are relatively more abundant in richer economies. It also shows that those countries that initially have too little of either entrepreneurial or professional human capital may end up in a development trap.     

The Mind Games Cybercrooks Play

The subject line in an e-mailthathitthousandsof in-boxesaroundtheworld lastmonth reads, “lawsuitagainstyou.”Inflawlesslegales,ethemessage warns recipientsthat theyrecentlysentan unsolicitedfax tothesender'soffic.e Citing U .S. civilcode, itsprohibitiono…     

Fictitious Play in Extensive Form Games

This article analyzes the fictitious play process originally proposed for strategic form games by Brown (1951) and Robinson (1951). We interpret the process as a model of preplay thinking performed by players before acting in a one-shot game. This model is one of bounded rationality. We discuss how fictitious play should then be defined for extensive form games and conclude that this is somewhat problematic. We therefore study two alternative definitions. For either of these, under a weak condition of initial uncertainty, a convergence point of a fictitious play sequence is a sequential equilibrium. For generic games of perfect information initial uncertainty also implies convergence of fictitious play.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C72.     

玩开心农场 学创业知识

＂开心农场＂等娱乐游戏风靡互联网,＂偷菜＂同时也能学到创业知识。学生如此感兴趣的游戏,堵是堵不了的,如果教师好好研究,多加引导,照样可以让学生在游戏中学到创业知识,何乐而不为呢？     

Entrepreneurship and Independent Professionals: Social and Economic Logics

This study discusses stereotypes of entrepreneurship by looking at the overlapping areas of entrepreneurship, self-employment and professions. Professions are part of the category of self-employment and the study presents empirical findings drawn from a unique empirical dataset from Finland: a survey (N?=?733) including freelance journalists, translators, interpreters and artists at the blurred boundaries between waged work and entrepreneurship. Findings reveal that the professions are clearly different and the manifestations of entrepreneurship vary, reflecting the work and the labor market situation within the profession. Life and work situations of liberal professions cannot be interpreted in simple black-and-white schemes of winners and losers. Instead, many different socioeconomic situations can be found ‘in between,’ which are driven by different social logics. For entrepreneurship research, the study opens up new avenues by taking us beyond the push-pull dichotomy, which over-simplifies the decision to enter self-employment. The term entrepreneurship is often used in an undifferentiated way, and it easily generates myths and stereotypes which are challenged by the study. A narrower and more realistic view shows that there are diverse agents under the flag of entrepreneurship, who are usually not regarded as core entrepreneurs although they exist in everyday life.     

小城镇能做大文章

一、意义1.发展小城镇,是有效吸纳我国农村剩余劳动力,农业人口非农化的必然选择。发展小城镇,是实现我国农村现代化的必由之路。农村人口进城定居,可以使广大农民逐步改变传统的生活方式和思想观念,从整体上提高我国人口素质,缩小工农差别和城乡差别。农村人口进城定居,也有利于实现城乡经济社会协调发展,全面提高广大农民的物质文化生活水平。目前,我国农村劳动力约为4.9亿,其中从事农业的劳动力为3.3亿。按我国目前农业技术水平,劳动力的需求为种植业1.2亿、林牧副渔0.6亿,合计为1.8亿。这意味着我国农村剩余劳动力约为1.5亿。今后每年农…     

Stated Beliefs and Play in Normal-Form Games

Using data on one-shot games, we investigate whether players' actions can be viewed as responses to underlying expectations about their opponent's behaviour. In our laboratory experiments, subjects play a set of 14 two-person 3×3 games and state beliefs about which actions they expect their opponents to play. The data sets from the two tasks are largely inconsistent. Rather, we find evidence that the subjects perceive the games differently when they (i) choose actions and (ii) state beliefs—their stated beliefs reveal deeper strategic thinking than their actions. On average, they fail to best respond to their own stated beliefs in almost half of the games. The inconsistency is confirmed by estimates of a unified statistical model that jointly uses the actions and the belief statements. There, we can control for decision noise and formulate a statistical test that rejects consistency. Effects of the belief elicitation procedure on subsequent actions are mostly insignificant.     

Minimax after money-max: why major league baseball players do not follow optimal strategies

Using real-life sports data of Major League Baseball, this paper investigates whether professional players follow the minimax theorem in their strategies. Our empirical results using the 2010 regular-season data show that baseball players do not optimize their strategies: there is a significant difference in their payoffs across strategies, and the sequence of their strategy choices is predictable from their previous actions. Further analysis using individual salaries and key contract variables indicates that a higher salary has a positive impact on following minimax strategies in the regular season. By contrast, a longer contract decreases a player’s incentive to pursue optimal strategies in the postseason. These results have important implications for compensation practices in various fields.     

充分发挥消费需求的拉动作用

需求是经济增长的根本动力 ,启动消费是关系到“建设社会主义新社会的本质要求”的大问题。我国近年来消费需求不旺的主要原因是大部分居民收入水平偏低 ,商品供给方面也存在问题。住房、农村家电、轿车、信息与网络、旅游、文教等消费已经或正在成为我国的消费热点。进一步扩大消费需求 ,需要提高职工工资和农民收入 ,大力发展消费信贷 ,增加消费品的有效供给。     

理工科大学培养行政管理专业人才的模式选择

文章具体分析了全国各大学培养行政管理专业人才的各种模式 ,对各种培养模式的优、缺点进行了分析 ,并就理工科大学选择综合兼容模式进行了探讨。     

农村土地租赁博弈分析

在分析国内外有关农村土地租赁关系研究进展的基础上,从博弈论角度透视土地租赁关系,并依据入户调查资料,建立不完全信息静态博弈模型。研究结果表明：相比高地租土地,土地租入方对低地租和中等地租土地有激励;土地租入方实施＂冷酷到底＂策略,土地出租方没有激励实施机会主义行为;最终导致高质量土地退出市场,低质量和中等质量土地占据整个市场,土地资源的无效率配置。     

Cost Structures and Nash Play in Repeated Cournot Games

This paper reports an experiment designed to assess the effects of a rotation in the marginal cost curve on convergence in a repeated Cournot triopoly. Increasing the cost curve's slope both reduces the serially-undominated set to the Nash prediction, and increases the peakedness of earnings. We observe higher rates of Nash equilibrium play in the design with the steeper marginal cost schedule, but only when participants are also rematched after each decision. Examination of response patterns suggests that the treatment with a steeper marginal cost curve and with a re-matching of participants across periods induces the selection of Nash Consistent responses.     

A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information

This paper studies the dynamic application of the minimax regret (MR) decision criterion to identify robust flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and emerging information. An MR method is developed that uses multiple learning scenarios, for example about sea level rise or river peak flow development, to analyse effects of changes in information on optimal investment in flood protection. To illustrate the method, optimal dike height and floodplain development are studied in a conceptual model, and conventional and adaptive MR solutions are compared. A dynamic application of the MR decision criterion allows investments to be changed after new information on climate change impacts, which has an effect on today’s optimal investments. The results suggest that adaptive MR solutions are more robust than the solutions obtained from a conventional MR analysis of investments in flood protection. Moreover, adaptive MR analysis with multiple learning scenarios is more general and contains conventional MR analysis as a special case.     

从课堂戏剧表演看英语交互性教学

交互性教学是荚语教学的重要方法。本文通过对一堂荚语戏剧表演课的设计与实践，阐述了英语课堂戏剧表演的活动程序和表演策略，并因此说明课堂戏剧表演是实现英语交互性教学的重要手段。