Cointegration and Causal Relationship between Taxes and Spending for Kenya,Nigeria and South Africa

Causal relationships between taxes and spending are examined for three African countries using the GDP as a control variable, and dummy variables to address structural changes in Nigeria and South Africa. There is one cointegration equation between nominal fiscal variables in all three countries, one cointegration equation for Kenya and two cointegration equations for Nigeria and South Africa for the real fiscal variables and their respective dummy variables. Short-term results of the nominal variables show fiscal independence for all three countries. In real terms, taxes cause spending for Kenya and Nigeria and a weak fiscal synchronization for South Africa. There is long run fiscal synchronization in nominal terms for all three countries, and in real terms for both Nigeria and South Africa, while real taxes cause spending in Kenya. Long-run estimates show a unit increase in nominal (real) taxes translating into a less than proportionate increase in nominal (real) spending for Kenya and South Africa, and a more than proportionate increase in nominal (real) spending for Nigeria. Fiscal imbalance is not a threat in the budgetary process in Kenya and South Africa, but an issue of concern in Nigeria, where oil revenues are a major source of support for budget short falls.     

Does democracy facilitate economic growth or does economic growth facilitate democracy? An empirical study of Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the relationship between democracy and economic growth in 30 Sub-Saharan African countries. As our proxy for democracy we first use the democracy index constructed by Freedom House and then check the sensitivity of our findings using, as an alternative proxy for democracy, the Legislative Index of Electoral Competitiveness (LIEC). We find support for the Lipset hypothesis - in the long run, real GDP Granger causes democracy and an increase in GDP results in an improvement in democracy - in Botswana and Niger with both datasets, for Chad with the Freedom House data only and for Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon with the LIEC data only. Support for the compatibility hypothesis - in the long run democracy Granger causes real income and an increase in democracy has a positive effect on real income - is found for Botswana with the Freedom House data and for Madagascar, Rwanda, South Africa and Swaziland with the LIEC data. Support for the conflict hypothesis - in the long run democracy Granger causes real income and an increase in democracy has a negative effect on real income - is found for Gabon with the Freedom House data and Sierra Leone with the LIEC data.     

R&D depreciation,stocks, user costs and productivity growth for US R&D intensive industries

This paper estimates R&D depreciation rates for U.S. R&D intensive industries. R&D annually depreciates at; 18% for chemical products, 26% for nonelectrical machinery, 29% for electrical products, and 21% for transportation equipment. These depreciation rates lead to new estimates of the marginal (gross of depreciation) returns to R&D capital; 0.25 for chemical products, 0.31 for nonelectrical machinery, 0.34 for electrical products, and 0.27 for transportation equipment. R&D investment significantly contributed to productivity growth; virtually 100% in chemical products, 55% in nonelectrical machinery, 38 percent in electrical products, and 84% in transportation equipment.     

髋关节置换术后常见的并发症及治疗

目的探讨髋关节置换术后常见的并发症以及治疗方法。方法收集我院50例老年患者髋关节置换术后的病例,总结出现并发症的情况,分析病因以及相应的治疗对策。结果 50例老年患者出现并发症的有7例,占14%;肺内感染1例,占2%;深静脉血栓1例,占2%;髋关节感染1例,占2%;泌尿系感染2例,占4%;肺内感染1例,占2%;假体周围骨折1例,占2%;假体脱位1例,占2%。结论人工髋关节置换术是近年来普遍应用于老年患者的髋关节重建,只要我们术前充分准备,术中精细操作,术后合理处置是防止术后并发症的有效方法。     

NEEDS FOR CONSISTENCY AND FLEXIBILITY IN MEASURES OF REAL PRODUCT BY INDUSTRY1

Study of relationships between outputs, inputs, prices, and final demands in the United States can be strengthened by: (1) eliminating disparities in official measures of output (mainly the Index of Industrial Production and Real Gross National Product), and (2) obtaining agreement on the conceptual framework for studying these relationships. Real Gross Product has provided a consistent framework for study of productivity and prices for the total economy and for broad industry groups, but has not easily permitted the analysis of commodity detail particularly for intermediate commodities. Industrial Production, on the other hand, has considerably extended the detailed analysis of commodity output but has not provided a basis for systematic analysis of productivity and prices within a consistent framework for the total economy. This paper illustrates the effect of some of the disparities between Industrial Production and Gross Product in manufacturing on the analysis of relations between prices and output and prices and productivity. This is done for the 1954–1958 period when benchmark data are available for both measures. Inconsistencies for a number of industries cause difficulties in analyzing the interplay of demand and cost influences on price changes; for example, industries which rise above average in output and below in price in one measure are not the same as those in similar price-quantity relationships in the other measure. The paper concludes by recommending improvements in data and concept in order to eliminate some of the disparities and to enable analysts to reap the benefits of both types of measures of real output.     

Structural Changes in High Dimensional Factor Models

This paper provides a survey on recent developments in structural changes for high dimensional factor models. Compared with conventional low-dimensional time series, structural changes in factor models are more complicated due to the unobservability of factors and factor loadings. The following topics are covered in this survey: the identification conditions for the structural changes in the factor loadings, different impacts of big and small breaks in factor models, tests for structural changes in the factor loadings of a specific variable, tests for structural changes in the factor loading matrix, joint tests for structural changes in the factor loadings and coefficients in factor-augmented regressions, tests for smooth changes in the factor loadings, estimation of break dates, and model selection in factor models with structural changes via the shrinkage method.     

On the role of personal relationships for doing business in the Greater Pearl River Delta,China

This article investigates the role of personal relationships for doing business in the Greater Pearl River Delta, China (GPRD). First, it discusses the interplay of formal and informal (relationship-based) institutions based on institutional economics. Second, it describes the institutional environment for doing business in China, and in the GPRD in particular. Third, it uses data obtained from a survey among executives of Hong Kong electronics SMEs with business operations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to gain insights into their perceptions of the importance and the motives of using personal relationships for business in PRD in general, and on the impact of personal relationships on location and partner decisions for companies' production as well as innovation activities, in particular. The results confirm the importance of personal relationships for doing business in the GPRD and suggest that companies rely on personal relationships for business not only for cultural reasons but also to cope with deficient legal and political institutions.     

An incentive pricing with two types of qualities and users

This paper analyses quality discrimination when the monopolist provides two types of qualities for two-types of users, for example, in the software market. The users using software are confronted with two types of quality in using the software: one is related to learning, while the other is operation. In addition, the users are discriminated by the frequency of utilization for software, for example, low-demand and high-demand users. In this paper, the characteristics for bi-directional quality distortion in both learning quality and operation quality are analysed. It is shown that the distortion can occur both for low demanders and for high demanders. Finally, from public policy, a subsidy mechanism is introduced.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES IN COPENHAGEN IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 1951*

This article presents the results of a study of distributions of wage rates in approximately 250 trades, comprising 225,000 workers, in Copenhagen in the second quarter of 1951. It examines particularly the effects of heterogeneity within trades and aggregation upon the resulting distributions, both for individual trades and for all trades combined. Separate distributions are studied for men and women, for skilled and unskilled, and for three types of institutional wage payment systems.     

Did support for economic and political reforms increase during the post‐communist transition,and if so,why?

We study the dynamics of individual support for changes in the economic and political system, using a unique dataset for 12 transition economies over the period 1991–2004. We document that support for transition was initially lower in the CIS countries and that there has been a converging trend in the support for reforms between the CIS and the Baltic and Central and Eastern European countries. We suggest several explanations for the initial divergence and the post‐98 convergence in support for transition between these three groups of countries, and show that economic growth, declining income inequality and improving quality of governance have contributed to increase the support for transition. In addition, we find that increased support for the market economy and democracy in the CIS is accompanied by a larger increase in trust towards the political institutions. Our results also confirm the implications of Aghion et al. ( 2010 )'s model of a negative correlation between trust and the demand for government regulation.     

Forecasting UK international trade: A general equilibrium approach

Monthly retail unit sales of clothes washers and dryers in eastern Washington state were regressed on average employment during the current and preceding two months, the average advertised price of these appliances relative to the Consumer Price Index, the expected change in consumer stocks of such applicances for each year on the basis of a hypothetical rate of accumulation, and the unit volume of newspaper advertising in order to determine the viablity of alternative models for analysing and forecasting monthly sales in a localized retail market during the periods of growth, maturity, and decline in market demand.

Employment and advertising, the two most useful variables in the functions tested, were able to account for 70–75 per cent of the monthly sales variance for automatic washers and dryers. Employment elasticity coefficients, though not linearly related to income elasticity coefficients for these products, appear to be a useful measure of purchasing power for localized demand and forecasting functions. The average advertising elasticity for the products studied was 0.095, which was approximately equal to advertising expenditures as a ratio of the gross margin of furniture and house furnishings corporations and kitchen appliance departments of department stores for the period studied, in keeping with the Rasmussen hypothesis. Correction of the models for the presence of autocorrelation altered the explanatory power of some of the variables substantially and resulted in regression coefficients for some variables that were more nearly consistent with theoretical expectations.     

A model for estimating fish population and optimal fishing effort in lakes and rivers

We developed a model for estimating the fish population for various species in lakes and rivers. Our estimation focuses, in its first step, on fish species that breed outside the lake. Using the annual outside supply of fingerlings, natural survival rate and reported amounts of fish caught, we estimated fish stock. Given the estimated stock for fish bred outside the lake, we can evaluate the catch rate. Assuming equal catch rates for other species, and given the amount caught for each species, we are able to evaluate each species stock. Using the proposed technique, we evaluated various species stocks in the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) in Israel. Using our suggested technique for evaluating fish stock, we calculated the optimal effort of fishing needed for maximizing steady state profit of the fishers.     

区域工业旅游产品营销策略——以郴州市工业旅游为例

以郴州市为例,论证了区域工业旅游产品营销应具备的三个条件:主体条件、客体条件、媒介条件;分析了当前我国区域工业旅游产品营销特点;在此基础上提出了战略对策:充分发挥政府在工业旅游产品营销中的主导作用、明确工业旅游产品营销市场的战略定位、实施产品组合营销策略、以“装”引人,推出特色产品、营造令人愉悦的旅游氛围,加大宣传推销力度、确定合理价格水平、重视工业旅游经济效益增长点———工业旅游商品的营销。     

Long‐term care and pay‐for‐performance programs

Pay‐for‐performance programs are gradually spreading across Asia. This paper builds on the longer experience in the United States to offer lessons for Asia. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has introduced several pay‐for‐performance programs since 2012 to encourage hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce costs. Some state Medicaid programs have also introduced pay‐for‐performance for nursing homes. Long‐term care providers play an important role in hospital pay‐for‐performance programs because they can affect the readmission rate and also total episode payments. A good pay‐for‐performance program will focus on improving quality of care that affects health outcomes. In addition, that quality must vary across providers and be measurable. Furthermore, it is important that the measures be reported in a timely way, that both demand and supply respond to the measures, and that the measures be risk adjusted. Empirical data from Medicare beneficiaries in the state of Michigan show that mean episode payments and readmission rates in skilled nursing facilities vary widely and are sensitive to the number of observations. These practical matters create challenges for implementing pay‐for‐performance in practice. There is an extensive literature review of pay‐for‐performance in long‐term care in the United States and in Asia.     

Analysis of evolutionary game in structural formation of market power in remanufacturing supply chains

It is normal for enterprises to engage in remanufacturing nowadays. Nevertheless, the concern of enterprises and researchers is whether remanufacturers should compete for leadership in supply chains. Considering the WTP for new and remanufactured products differs, this article the evolutionary game theory model in three structures of leadership in supply chains. It investigates the processes of market evolution and choices of strategies when manufacturers and retailers compete or do not compete for leadership in the market. It has been shown in the case of market evolution, according to the 12 conditions formed from different prices that manufacturer and retailer have to pay for competing for leadership, there are five types of ultimate evolutionary stability about the choices of strategies. Further analyses show that these five different evolutionary stability results include nine different evolutionary paths. Analyses of examples further show the evolutionary processes and results in distinct circumstances. This article extends the application of the evolutionary game in remanufacturing supply chains in theory and provides some guidance for enterprises to make decisions when they consider whether they compete for leaders in remanufacturing supply chains in reality.     

广州市旅游购物发展的现状,问题及对策

广东旅游业的创收连续９ 年居全国之首,但旅游购物的发展仍滞后于整个旅游业的发展,与旅游发达国家相比,差距更大。本文在调查研究的基础上,论述了在广东旅游业中居重要地位的广州市的旅游购物现状、存在问题,并探索相应的对策,以期给广东旅游业发展提供一些有益的启示。     

Assessing ecosystem sustainability and management using fuzzy logic

Concern about the negative impacts of growth and development on protected area ecosystems has drawn attention to methods for assessing ecosystem sustainability and management. Existing non-stochastic and stochastic methods for assessing weak and strong sustainability of ecosystems have several limitations. The non-stochastic method does not account for errors in measuring attributes, stochastic variability in attributes, and uncertainty about the relationship between ecosystem attributes and states (degrees) of ecosystem sustainability. Although the stochastic method better accounts for errors in measuring attributes, and stochastic variability in attributes than the non-stochastic method, it requires information about the probability distributions of attributes for different states of sustainability. Such information is not readily available. The fuzzy logic method overcomes the limitations of the non-stochastic and stochastic methods, but requires fuzzifying an index of sustainability in the case of weak sustainability, fuzzifying individual attributes in the case of strong sustainability, specifying and estimating membership functions for low, medium and high ecosystem sustainability, selecting a rule to determine whether an ecosystem is strongly sustainable based on the conclusions for fuzzy propositions, and specifying fuzzy sets for truth qualifiers when evaluating conditional and qualified propositions. Whether the benefits outweigh the costs of using the fuzzy logic method depends on the knowledge, data, and information available about the ecosystem, the expertise of the persons doing the assessment, and other factors. The non-stochastic, stochastic and fuzzy logic methods can be used to rank management alternatives and select a preferred alternative in cases where the current state of the ecosystem is unsustainable. Ranking management alternatives using a fuzzy logic method requires ordering the fuzzy scores for alternatives. All three methods for ranking management alternatives call for a group preference ordering for management alternatives in cases where individuals in the group have different preferences for alternatives.     

Demand for Environmental Quality: An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Behavior in Sweden

In this paper we estimate the income elasticity of demand for recreational services and other traditional groups of goods in Sweden and test for potential changes in such estimates over the twentieth century. Due to the difficulty of directly observing the demand for recreational services, we employ an indirect methodology by using the demand for some outdoor goods as a proxy for the demand for recreational services. In line with most prior research, our results confirm the expectation that recreational services, as a public good, is a luxury good in Sweden. Our results also show that the income elasticities for traditional goods are stable over time, indicating that consumer preferences for expenditure on these specific commodities do not change over time.      

佛山市服务外包产业发展的现状分析

佛山发展服务外包产业具有显著的区位与政策优势,广东金融高新技术服务区的建立更为佛山发展服务外包产业带来巨大契机。本研究通过实地企业调研发现,当地的制造企业具有很强的服务外包需求,发展服务外包产业的潜力巨大。本文最后在调研的基础上提出了对产业发展的建议。     

Does Fathers’ Care Spill Over? Evaluating Reforms in the Swedish Parental Leave Program

The aim of reserving months for fathers in the Swedish parental leave system was to increase fathers’ use of leave as well as encourage gender equality in the home and labor market. Using data from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency, this study investigates the effects of the reform – reserving one month of leave for fathers in 1995 and a second month in 2002 – on gender equality in the home. The study uses the take up of the parental benefit for the care for sick children (CFSC) as a proxy for gender equality and follows parents’ use of CFSC for twelve years for the first reform and ten years for the second reform. Results indicate the first reform led to more equal leave sharing, mainly because use of the benefit decreased among mothers with low education, and at least in part fulfilled the aim of increasing gender equality in the home.