外资准入政策与资源优化配置

改革开放40多年以来,外商投资是中国经济发展的主要动力之一,同时也对资源优化配置产生多方面影响。以2002年《外商投资产业指导目录》的调整作为准自然实验,具体分析外资准入政策放松对资源优化配置的影响。研究表明:外资准入政策显著地增大了城市-行业层面生产率的离散度,不利于资源的优化配置;但是,从企业层面来看,外资准入政策提高了规制放松行业中企业的平均生产率;除此之外,外资准入政策在地区、企业性质和创新能力等方面的影响存在显著差异,政策效力主要体现在东部地区、非国有企业和创新能力较强的行业。因此,中国进一步扩大外资开放程度和改革外资准入政策时,应考虑到外资准入政策放松对企业生产率和资源优化配置的双重影响。     

增值税减税政策对企业投资的影响研究*——基于企业杠杆率差异的视角#br#

我国增值税改革持续深化，增值税减税的效果成为学界和政府关注的热点问题。由于产品供需存在弹性，企业无法将增值税税负完全转嫁给消费者，并且不同企业面临的借贷市场环境存在差异，因此增值税减税对企业投资的影响问题显得较为复杂。本文针对企业投资决策建模，发现增值税减税会增加企业投资，但杠杆率较高企业由于借贷市场受到约束，投资水平的提高弱于杠杆率低的企业。本文基于2016Q3-2019Q1上市公司的季度数据，利用双重差分模型实证分析显示，2018年增值税减税政策提高了企业的投资水平，且对固定资产投资的影响更为显著，但借贷市场的传导机制减弱了增值税减税政策对杠杆率较高企业投资的促进作用。     

改革开放与中国经济增长奇迹——基于合成控制法的研究

本文基于1978年末中国实施改革开放的准自然实验,首次使用合成控制法定量评估改革开放对中国经济增长的影响效应。结果显示,合成控制法通过对多个控制对象加权以模拟中国改革开放政策执行前后的情形,比传统方法更科学地测度改革开放的政策效果。改革开放的增长效应使中国1978年以来的年均经济增长率提高669个百分点。经由安慰剂检验、排序检验和双重差分法的多维定量结果客观证实了上述结论的有效性和稳健性。进一步的机制分析表明,固定资产投资和对外贸易的持续快速增长是改革开放促进中国经济高速增长的重要渠道,人力资本水平没有发挥明显的作用。本文首次从定量意义上佐证了改革开放创造中国经济增长奇迹的学术观点,也为中国坚定不移地推进改革开放提供了定量依据和经验支持。     

货币政策、民营企业投资效率与公司期权价值

本文首先考察了货币政策对民营企业融资约束和投资效率的影响。研究发现,宽松的货币政策减少了民营企业的融资约束,但对投资效率的影响则呈现非线性关系。本文进一步从实物期权的角度考察了货币政策对公司增长与清算期权价值的影响,结果表明:高盈利能力公司的增长期权价值在宽松货币政策时期更大,而低盈利能力公司的清算期权价值在紧缩货币政策时期更高。本文的研究结论有助于理解在不同的货币政策状态下,资本逐利这一经济规律的表现形式;同时,本文的经验证据还有助于从投资效率和公司价值的角度评价宏观经济政策对微观经济实体的影响,从而为决策部门制定恰当的经济政策、促进宏观经济体系的良好运转提供政策性建议。     

我国货币政策利率传导机制研究

利率作为货币政策行使中最为关键的工具之一，是否像人们想像的那样能够有效地传导信息，实现宏观调控是一个值得怀疑的问题。利率在货币政策中的作用主要体现在利率与投资和储蓄之间是否正相关。就我国目前的情况来看，利率和投资之间存在着反向变动的关系，加息在一定程度上有利于抑制投资，但是加息与储蓄之间则几乎没有相关性。要想利用利息在宏观调控中的作用，必须进行利率的市场化改革。     

Japan's oligopolies: Potential economy wide gains from structural reforms

Japan's slowdown preceded those in the other advanced economies and is therefore of global significance. While its initial causes were financial, a resurgence will depend on productivity growth, key determinants of which are investment and industrial structure. This paper focuses on the costs of a structure dominated by oligopolies and the potential gains from combined competition and tax reform. We first identify industry concentration levels and economic rents using firm specific data and then incorporate these in a calibrated economy-wide model. Simulations suggest that competition policy and more openness to investment in services could deliver 5–17% of additional GDP. These stimulate investment via returning external wealth. Gains are spread most evenly if competition policy is combined with company tax reform. This retains fiscal balance and improves the domestic purchasing power of all Japanese incomes.     

间接税改革的宏观经济效应:一般均衡分析

建立一个研究中国整体经济的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型.对我国现行税制间接税税率调整,间接税向直接税转化,间接税调整对储蓄、投资的影响等措施的宏观经济效应进行分析,提出一些可供选择的税收政策改革方案.在此基础上,指出了本CGE模型的局限与改进方向.     

Expansive agendas and weak instruments: governance related conditionalities of international financial institutions

China’s more than ten thousand economic zones, while similar in some respects to those found elsewhere, exhibit various unique features. In most developing economies, zones are the responsibility of the central administration and are designed to promote exports or foreign investment. In contrast, the Chinese zones are built and run by local governments and need not involve foreign investment or exports. We argue that the Chinese zone policy is best understood as part of a drive for economic reform, and that its unique features serve to defuse potential resistance from local cadres, whose interests are not served by reform.     

财政分权、地方政府投资和区域经济增长——基于双固定效应模型的实证分析

改革开放后,地方政府转变为独立的经济利益主体,成为推动我国经济增长动力源之一。以中部地区为分析样本,运用双固定效应模型,实证研究了地方政府投资对经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,1994年的财政分税制改革后,中部六省的地方政府投资有力的推动了地方经济的增长,但是这种效应并不明显,这与政府投资的投资价值取向和标准有关。针对这一分析提出了优化地方政府投资行为的政策建议。     

FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究--基于面板随机系数模型的分析

改革开放以来,我国实施“以市场换技术”的外资战略,吸引外资以期换来国外的先进技术,促进产业结构升级。时至今日,此举是否真正换来了技术与产业结构的升级,值得我们细分研究。本文选取1999—2009年我国实际利用外资金额和行业增加值数据,通过采用面板随机系数模型分析了FDI对三次产业中各个细分行业的影响,从而得出FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响。研究得出如下结论：FDI对第一产业（即农林牧渔业）增加值有影响,但不够显著;FDI对第二产业中的制造业增加值的影响显著;FDI对第三产业内绝大多数行业增加值的影响显著。进而表明FDI的流入能有效推动产业结构升级和优化。     

外商直接投资与河北省产业结构调整

改革开放以来,外商直接投资对经济增长与产业结构的提升起到了重要的推动作用。近年来,河北省利用外商直接投资规模虽不断增大,但利用外资与产业结构调整之间在某些方面还不协调,应从改变投资方式,引导外资流向,改善投资环境等几方面加以改进,以进一步促进产业结构的优化升级。     

FDI对我国产业结构升级影响的实证研究——基于面板随机系数模型的分析

改革开放以来,我国实施"以市场换技术"的外资战略,吸引外资以期换来国外的先进技术,促进产业结构升级。时至今日,此举是否真正换来了技术与产业结构的升级,值得我们细分研究。本文选取1999-2009年我国实际利用外资金额和行业增加值数据,通过采用面板随机系数模型分析了FDI对三次产业中各个细分行业的影响,从而得出FDI对我国产业结构升级的影响。研究得出如下结论:FDI对第一产业(即农林牧渔业)增加值有影响,但不够显著;FDI对第二产业中的制造业增加值的影响显著;FDI对第三产业内绝大多数行业增加值的影响显著。进而表明FDI的流入能有效推动产业结构升级和优化。     

Optimal tax reform in the presence of adjustment costs

The optimal implementation of an efficiency-enhancing capital taxation reform is examined when the government is concerned about arbitrary reform-induced redistributions and investment causes firms to incur adjustment costs. Theoretical results indicate that immediate partial enactment of reform is optimal with concave adjustment costs, while with convex adjustment costs, the optimal reform implementation policy is either (i) immediate partial enactment with sufficiently low adjustment costs, (ii) phased-in partial enactment with intermediate adjustment costs, or (iii) postponed partial enactment with sufficiently high adjustment costs. Numerical results suggest that, relative to the optimal one-step implementation policy, little is gained by phasing-in reform.     

论土地“闸门”政策调控投资增长

土地闸门政策是中国特色的、调控地方政府投融资具有特殊意义的、现行体制下无奈的选择。从总体来看,在付出巨大代价的情况下,土地闸门政策具有周期性的调控效果,但其调控手段存在着一系列不合时宜的问题。因此,完善土地调控政策需要有重大改革。     

跨国公司对华投资与中国市场产业发展思路初探

改革开放以来,中国利用国外直接投资的规模不断扩大,跨国公司普遍将中国市场作为当前目标市场。跨国公司的中国市场战略,对中国国内市场形势和产业发展也具有重要影响。中国必须针对跨国公司中国市场战略形势,完善相应的产业政策,有效地借助全球经济发展的有利条件,实现中国经济又好又快地发展。     

FDI对中国区位环境的动态要求

改革开放二十多年以来,中国吸收了大量的外国直接投资(FDI)。在这一过程中,FDI的来源和投资目标区位也发生了很大变化。文章分析了吸引FDI进入中国的区位因素(政策框架、经济因素、便利化措施)的动态变化,并且指出了区位选择要素的动态变化对我国利用外资中长期战略的影响。     

Economic Reforms and Gender-Based Wage Inequality in the Presence of Factor Market Distortions

A simple three-sector general equilibrium model has been developed with both male and female labour and factor market distortions. The effects of different liberalized economic policies have been examined on the gender-based wage inequality. The analysis finds that credit market reform and tariff reform produce favourable effects on the wage inequality while the liberalized investment policy becomes counterproductive. The basic model has been extended to treat domestic capital differently from foreign capital. In the extended model, all of the above results hold. Additionally, it has been found that domestic capital formation is likely to produce a favourable impact on the gender wage inequality. These results have important policy implications for a small open developing economy.

     

Adjustment,trade policy and investment slumps: evidence from east asia ∗

This paper presents a model of investment in five East Asian economies over the 1970s and 80s, paying particular attention to the impact of the policy reforms which have accompanied Structural Adjustment Programmes. A priori, the impact of trade reform on investment can be positive or negative; in practise, it is found to be negative.     

Informational externalities,strategic delay,and optimal investment subsidies

Abstract This paper examines optimal government policy when private investment generates information, but investors cannot internalize the informational value their actions have to others. Equilibrium exhibits inefficient delay, as investors adopt a wait‐and‐see approach. The government can alter incentives via an investment subsidy, but complications arise, since future subsidies may induce investors to disregard current policy initiatives. The paper shows that the government achieves its desired outcome only when the the investment subsidy is financed by a non‐distortionary, lump‐sum tax. When taxation is distortionary, the government faces a time inconsistency problem that may prevent effective policy.     

Tuition Fees for Higher Education and Intergenerational Mobility in China

This paper studies the impact of an increase in higher education tuition on intergenerational mobility in China. We develop a theoretical model for the parental decision about the investment on education of children to illustrate the impact from the perspective of borrowing constraint. We consider the Chinese college tuition and subsidy reform around 1986 as a quasi-natural experiment for identifying the policy effect of the reform on intergenerational educational mobility by using the data from the census of 2000 and the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). We find that an increase in the education burden induced by the reform of college tuition has reduced intergenerational educational mobility, and it is more noticeable in regions with a relatively higher increment in the tuition fee. Our results are robust with consideration of the co-residence bias, government investment in elementary education, and the higher education expansion.