Recession,terms of trade,and immigrants

The current literature does not adequately analyze how economic crisis affects employment of immigrants in host countries. It is generally believed that immigrants lose jobs and return home during recession. We show that recession may instead help relatively unskilled immigrants when it leads to terms-of-trade improvement in the host country, and when the unskilled sector is protected by minimum wage regulations. We also derive the condition under which the income gap between natives and immigrants falls.     

Taxation,inflation, and the terms of trade

The interaction between changes in the rate of inflation and tax systems can have potential terms of trade effects. An open-economy macroeconomic model is presented in which such effects are analyzed. The asset menu consists of money, corporate capital whose nominal income is subject to taxation, and consumer durables whose return is tax exempt. This may be contrasted with the conventional menu of money and capital and/or bonds. Durables are imported. An increase in the rate of inflation then implies that the terms of trade of the country in question deteriorates in the long run.     

The trade balance and the terms of trade in a two-country two-sector OLG economy

We consider a two-country, two-sector OLG model. It is shown that the trade balance and the relative price of exports are always positively related when exports are labor intensive regardless of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption. A large response of savings to future prices becomes a sufficient condition for an inverse relation between these variables only if exports are capital intensive. In this case, a rise in the terms of trade can be followed by a trade balance decline if consumption goods are capital intensive and the income effect implied on savings is negative and large.     

Transfers, the terms of trade, and capital accumulation

Abstract .  In the context of a two-sector overlapping-generations model it is demonstrated that a steady-state transfer paradox may arise under commodity trade with stability and without distortions or bystanders. The existence of the paradox is due to the effect of the transfer on world capital accumulation, which is shown to always (i.e., for any ranking of factor intensities and savings rates) improve the donor's terms of trade. Transfers may also improve steady-state welfare for both donor and recipient and produce paradoxical welfare results along the transition path.     

利用外国直接投资与贸易条件分析

通过大量数据说明。中国FDI主要流向劳动力密集型出口部门。这种流向特征一方面导致中国出口消费品的超额供给,另一方面又带动了对资本、技术等密集型产品的进口FDI需求的增长,使中国的贸易条件趋向恶化。要改善中国的贸易条件,应当进一步加强对外资流向的引导,从根本上增加外资流向资本技术密集型部门和服务业的比重,降低流向一般制造业的比重。     

Export sophistication and the terms of trade of the developing and emerging countries

The question of the terms of trade has not yet been studied by the new empirical literature on the export sophistication, which focuses only on its effect on economic growth. The contribution of this paper is to investigate whether the increase in the export sophistication is terms of trade worsening or improving for the developing and emerging economies. Importantly, we find that the increase in the sophistication of the developing countries’ exports is accompanied by a deterioration of their terms of trade.     

Liberalization and the terms of trade in Turkey: a causal analysis

There has been extensive trade liberalization in developing countries in recent decades. Several liberalization episodes have been completed in Turkey. In this paper we evaluate the relationship between trade liberalization in Turkey and the terms of trade. Has liberalization preceded changes in the terms of trade or vice versa. Using causality analysis we investigate several hypotheses and conclude that in this case trade liberalization follows a terms of trade change, a finding which is consistent with the trade shocks hypothesis.     

影响中国贸易条件的制度因素与改革方略

随着中国对外贸易的快速发展,中国的贸易条件成为经济学者们讨论的焦点,如何改善中国的贸易务件也成为中国 经济发展所面临的严峻课题。本文通过深入分析指出,当前不合理的贸易制度是制约中国贸易条件改善的根本因素,并在此 基础上提出了利于改善中国贸易条件的贸易发展战略以及为实施该战略所应采取的相应的改革措施。     

Changing trade patterns in major OECD countries

Disaggregated trade data are used to examine changing trade patterns for five developed economic regions: the USA, the European Union, Australia, Canada and Japan. This study covers the 1980–1997 time period, during which international trade for most goods faced less border protection. Changing trade patterns are found for the USA, Japan, and the EU, while persistent trade patterns are observed for Australia and Canada. Classifying goods into four groups, trade patterns found in manufactured goods were the most dynamic, and trade in bulk agricultural goods the most persistent.     

Income instability,terms of trade,and the choice of exchange rate regime

In this article terms of trade fluctuations, which constitute an important source of income instability in many LDC's, are decomposed into three principal components: (a) shifts in world market conditions, (b) shifts in home market conditions and (c) changes in exchange rates. The appropriateness of a ‘basket peg’ is then analyzed in terms of a country's net export-side market power and a weighting formula is derived which would offset variations in third countries' exchange rates on the home country's terms of trade. Initial empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that basket pegs are usually adopted by countries with net export-side market power.     

Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy

This paper shows that the small-country assumption of dependent-economy models is unlikely to hold for many of the cases in which this class of models is used, for example, in the analysis of a terms of trade shock in the “commodity currency” models. When a shock affects most or all of the small countries exporting a commodity, the combined exchange rate effects will result in endogenous terms of trade changes even for those countries too small to individually affect world markets. The paper also explores the possible implications of these secondary terms of trade changes for the dependent-economy models.     

Real exchange rates,asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a continuous-time two-country dynamic equilibrium model, in which the real exchange rates, asset prices, and terms of trade are jointly determined in the presence of nontradable goods. The model determines the relation between the financial markets and real goods markets in the world economy and their responses to various shocks under the home bias assumption. A positive domestic supply shock induces a positive return on the domestic asset markets and a deterioration of terms of trade that improves the foreign output and boosts the foreign asset markets. Demand shocks act in the opposite way. This model also analyses the impact of change in the relative price of nontradable to tradable goods on the terms of trade and asset markets. A higher productivity growth in tradable goods than in nontradable goods leads to a higher relative price of nontradable to tradable goods, which appreciates the real exchange rate, deteriorates the terms of trade, and depresses the domestic and foreign asset markets. A lower relative price of nontradable goods depreciates the real exchange rate, improves the terms of trade, and lifts both the domestic and foreign asset markets.     

Driving economic fluctuations in Peru: the role of the terms of trade

This paper uses a common trend model, following King et al. (Am Econ Rev 81:819–840, 1991), Mellander et al. (J Appl Econ 7(4):369–394, 1992), and Warne (A common trends model: identification, estimation and inference. Seminar Paper 555, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University, 1993), to evaluate, for 1994–2015, the role of the terms of trade vis-à-vis domestic productivity in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru. Our results show that Peru’s macroeconomic aggregates share two common trends: an external one, associated with the evolution of the terms of trade; and a domestic one, linked to the evolution of domestic productivity. The external common trend has a larger impact on private investment and public expenditure than on consumption and output, a result consistent with the role of investment in absorbing income volatility. The permanent terms of trade (foreign) shocks account for most of the volatility in output, consumption, private investment, and public expenditure. This result appears more pronounced as the time horizon approaches the long term.     

Balance-of-payment-constrained growth in unbalanced productive structures: disregarded terms of trade negative effects

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between foreign asset formation (FAF) and terms of trade (TOT) in countries characterized by unbalanced productive structures (UPS). This is done by modifying the structuralist thesis about the (overstated) positive effects of a rise in TOT on the balance-of-payment equilibrium gross domestic product growth rate. The theoretical analysis follows Thirlwall’s law and its subsequent modifications. The paper’s main contribution will be to explain and formalize the low—and even null—effects of TOT on balance-of-payment constraints due to the quasi-rent generated in the export sector of a UPS. To reinforce this idea, the empirical section econometrically shows the existence of a significant and positive relationship between TOT and FAF in developing countries.     

Effective demand and the terms of trade in a dual economy: a Kaldorian perspective

Along the line suggested by Nicholas Kaldor, the paper incorporatesinto the analysis of a dual economy effective demand as a problemof generation of agricultural surplus and its realisation intopurchasing power for industrial goods. Through this approach,it is shown how one obtains empirical predictions about unevensectoral growth rates, as well as an effect of the movementin the terms of trade on long-term industrial growth which iscontrary to that suggested by Lewis. The paper also specifiesthe process of dynamic adjustment of industrial growth in aself-reinforcing circular flow under conditions of sufficientlyhigh agricultural growth, extending the effective demand argumentin a dual economy.     

Foreign ownership, non-traded goods and the effects of terms of trade changes on national welfare

This paper extends the theory of international trade in the presence of foreign ownership to incorporate non-traded goods. It is shown that, with non-traded goods, national and aggregate welfare might move in opposite directions in response to a terms of trade deterioration even when national and aggregate trade specialization patterns coincide.     

The Pacific basin in world trade an analysis of changing trade patterns, 1955–1975

In two previous papers by the same authors the data basis for the trade flows and the export prices in the Pacific Basin has presented and documented. In this third report the changing pattern of Pacific Basin trade over the period 1955–1975 is analyzed, using as tools export growth decomposition indexes, trend analysis, and regression analysis of the price elasticity of import market shares.     

Leisure time, savings and trade patterns A two-country growth model

This paper proposes a simple two-country endogenous growth model with endogenous consumption, leisure time and wealth accumulation. The model examines possible causes for the world economic growth and the existence and persistence of trade patterns between countries with different preferceces and human capital under internationally free capital mobility. We show how differences in preferences in consumption, leisure time and wealth between the two countries may affect long-run world economic growth.     

Heterogeneity of consumer preferences and trade patterns in a monopolistically competitive setting

The paper considers a two-sector two-country trade model of monopolistic competition featuring the heterogeneity of consumer preferences and incomes within and across countries. The incorporation of heterogeneity into a monopolistic competition setting is achieved by assuming a nested Cobb–Douglas and CES utility function exhibiting both country and sector-specific consumer tastes and expenditure shares on manufacturing and traditional goods. The key question analyzed in the paper is how consumer heterogeneity affects the home bias of trade in different countries. The key finding here is that the heterogeneity in tastes and incomes of consumers can provide a substantial influence on degree of home bias in trade but only in combination with high transportation costs.     

从国际竞争优势理论视角看我国服务贸易发展战略

作为国际贸易的重要组成部分,服务贸易在一国经济活动中占据着越来越重要的位置.发展服务贸易是我国对外贸易转型升级的客观要求,对我国转变外贸增长方式、提升现代服务业发展水平、缓解就业压力、拉动服务消费增长、提升国家软实力、提高企业和国民素质、实现国民经济又好又快发展都具有重大而深远的意义.