Normative expectations in systems innovation

This paper is concerned with the way technological expectations are generated, articulated and deployed in processes of large-scale socio-technical change. We argue that expectations are intrinsic to all social action, so that visions of the future are both ubiquitous and context-specific. Agents will act in relation to private visions of the future that are complexly related to shared or collective visions. Characteristic features and forms of visions as they relate to socio-technical regimes are identified, and the specific roles visions play in the context of actor networks engaged in processes of systems innovation are discussed. Visions are seen as 'bids' that are deployed by actors in processes of coalition-formation and coordination. Examples from a range of visions of more sustainable systems are used to illustrate the main arguments. The paper ends by discussing the normative features of socio-technical expectations.     

Professional ‘amateurs’ in the NCAA: the impact of downstream demand

We argue that student-athletes are amateur in title only; they are actually professional athletes in all accounts of their actions. This occurs because of the downstream demand of their athletic success: coaches are paid professionals. As a paid professional, these coaches are held accountable for the performances of their team, i.e. they are hired and fired based on this performance. Within the constraints of the National Collegiate Athletic Association guidelines, coaches make the rules for their athletes, which the athletes are required to follow. As such, the athletes themselves are professionals acting under professional incentives and are amateurs in title only.     

新世纪的两大发展趋势—全球化与信息化

本文主要讨论21世纪的两大发展趋势－全球化与信息化。在全球化的分析中主要说明：出现迹象，发生原因及经济全球化呼唤全球政府，全球化的结果将是共产主义的胜利。在信息化的分析中说明了什么是信息化、信息化的内涵要素及信息化对经济和社会的影响。     

Aggregation By Industry In High-Dimensional Models*

Models of trading economies have become very large in dimensions and complex in structure. Conditions which are sufficient for aggregation in production and/or consumption are derived. They require the existence of linearly homogeneous indices of production and/or consumption in the industries or sufficient similarity among agents. These methods are applied to the Armington model and to a group of models in which the commodities in an industry are denned on a continuum. the results are applied to the method of constructing general-equilibrium models with many commodities, tests of comparative advantage, and the measurement of effective protection in multicommodity industries.     

私人宗教仪式与社区关系—莆田东华“谢恩”仪式的田野考察

本文考察福建莆田民间的“谢恩”仪式,描述“谢恩”家庭的乞化、师公的醮仪和仪式剧《愿》的演出,呈现当代莆田乡村地方庙宇和仪式活动的复杂性,仪式形式对当代社会的适应,仪式对乡村道德经济的调制,以期考察乡土社会中的私人宗教仪式与社区环境的关系。     

Indirect Tax Reform in Australia: The Welfare Effects on Different Demographic Groups

The welfare effects of several indirect tax reforms in Australia are examined for a number of types of household in a range of income groups. The welfare changes, measured using equivalent variations, are based on the use of the linear expenditure system, where parameters are different in each of the income groups. The effects of the current system and of several reforms are found to differ significantly among the household types. However, the results suggest that the extent of vertical redistribution involved in the current indirect tax structure, and possible reforms to it, are small. The role of exemptions are examined in the case of food, for which the budget shares are systematically higher in lower income households, and health services. In view of the strong assumptions used at each stage, the results must be regarded as tentative.     

考虑处置和延迟交货的混合系统库存决策

对存在旧产品处置和采用延迟交货策略的混合系统库存决策问题进行研究。在混合系统中,有制造与再制造两种产品供应模式。产品使用后从顾客处返回,但因再制造能力的不足,返回的旧产品仅有部分用于再制造,其余的被处置。旧产品通过再制造得到再制造品,原材料和零部件通过制造得到制造新品,再制造品具有与制造新品完全相同的质量。可翻新品库存由用于再制造的旧产品组成,服务性产品库存由制造新品与再制造品组成。顾客的需求恒定且由服务性产品来满足,允许缺货但需完全拖后补足。利用（P,1）策略构建库存决策模型,给出了确定最优制造与再制造策略的求解方法,得到了制造和再制造准备次数、制造和再制造批量、模型周期长度、制造与再制造期的最大缺货量等决策变量的求解公式。算例表明,可以找到最优的制造与再制造策略。     

新世纪的两大发展趋势—全球化与信息化（续前）

本文主要讨论21世纪的两大发展趋势－全球化与信息化。在全球化的分析中主要说明其出现迹象，发生原因及经济全球化呼喘全球政府，全球化的结果将是共产主义的胜利，在信息化的分析中说明了什么是信息化，信息化的内涵要素及信息化对经济和社会的影响。     

Bilateral trade with apositional traders

We study the standard model of bilateral trade under incomplete information dropping the assumption that traders know on which side of the market they are. We consider two mechanisms that differ only in the number of offers that an agent can submit. These mechanisms are realistic and they are ex post individually rational (i.e. regret free), while the usual mechanisms proposed in the literature satisfy the weaker requirement of interim individual rationality. Properties of the Bayesian equilibria are described for the general case. For the case where valuations are uniformly distributed in the unit square, two types of equilibria are derived for each mechanism and their efficiency properties are analyzed. As expected, the equilibria under the double offer mechanism are less inefficient than those under the single offer mechanism.     

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION IN THE FACE OF A MEANS‐TESTED PUBLIC PENSION

We investigate whether households adjust their asset portfolios just prior to retirement in ways that are consistent with maximizing eligibility for a means‐tested public pension. We utilize detailed micro data for a nationally‐representative sample of Australian households to estimate a system of asset equations which are constrained to add up to net worth. Our results provide little evidence that healthy households or couples are responding to the incentives embedded in the means tests determining pension eligibility by reallocating assets. While there are some differences in asset portfolios associated with having an income near the income threshold, being of pensionable age, and being in poor health, these differences are often only marginally significant and are not clearly consistent with the incentives inherent in the Australian age pension eligibility rules. Any behavioral response to the incentives inherent in the age‐pension means test appears to be predominately concentrated among single pensioners who are in poor health.     

An almost ideal demand system for alcoholic beverages in British Columbia

An almost ideal demand system for alcoholic beverages in British Columbia is estimated based on five beverage categories. Estimates of the model unrestricted and restricted to satisfy homogeneity and symmetry are presented. The restrictions are tested: as is common in applied demand analysis a number of rejections are encountered, although within-equation tests tend to support homogeneity. The rejections which are encountered are not mitigated by the inclusion of dynamic elements. The Slutsky matrix is used to examine the concavity of the expenditure function, which is found to be mildly violated. Marshallian and Hicksian own-, cross-price, and income elasticities are calculated and are found to be largely consistent with previous findings, although some noteworthy results are obtained.     

Modelling Students at Risk

Using a sample of several hundred students we model progression in a first-year econometrics course. Our primary interest is in determining the usefulness of these models in the identification of 'students at risk'. This interest highlights the need to distinguish between students who drop the course and those who complete but who ultimately fail. Such models allow identification and quantification of the factors that are most important in determining student progression and thus make them a potentially useful aid in educational decision making. Our main findings are that Tertiary Entrance Rank (TER), mathematical aptitude, being female and attendance in tutorials are all good predictors of success but amongst these factors only attendance is significant in discriminating between students who fail and those who discontinue. Also, there are differences across degree programs and, in particular, students in Combined Law are very likely to pass but, if they are at risk, they are much more likely to discontinue than to fail.     

How to keep that innovative spirit alive : An examination of evolving innovative hot spots

The classic American innovative hot spots are Route 128 in Massachusetts and Silicon Valley in California. Both had their starts in the mid-1950s and are now well into maturation as they approach 40 years of age. However, both are now showing signs of decline as structural disincentives inhibit entrepreneurs and make new ventures difficult. Within the United States, there are many new innovative hot spots in the formation stage. Two of the most likely up-and-comers, now in their early 20s, are Silicon Gulch in Austin, Texas, and the Research Triangle in North Carolina.In this paper we examine the factors behind the rise and decline of the classic innovation hot spots, examine the new “maturing” hot spots, where they are and how they are prospering, and provide recommendations on what regions of the country must do in order to have a prospering hot spot or to maintain one once it is developed.     

WELFARE ECONOMICS AND THE MEASUREMENT OF NNP*

Some relationships between NNP and economic welfare are explored in the confines of a simple, static welfare maximization model. Various assumptions concerning both the measurement of NNP and the economic system underlying this model are dropped seriatem and the implications for the correspondence between NNP and economic welfare are examined. The following conclusions emerge. There are several classes of resource reorganization in which NNP and welfare move in the same direction, so that NNP can serve as an ordinal proxy for welfare. These include changes in taxes or competitive imperfections which result in product substitution and movements along the transformation function. With a general qualification, NNP-welfare correspondence is preserved for allocative changes which affect the real costs and prices of goods included in NNP or of non-included goods in inelastic demand; changes in involuntary unemployment; and changes in technological externalities affecting producers. There are other cases where changes in NNP and welfare are not positively correlated. Included here are changes in real costs of non-included goods for which demand is elastic and changes in technological externalities imposed on consumers.     

Open borders

There is a large body of evidence indicating that cross-country differences in income levels are associated with differences in productivity. If workers are much more productive in one country than in another, restrictions on immigration lead to large efficiency losses. The paper quantifies these losses, using a model in which efficiency differences are labor-augmenting, and free trade in product markets leads to factor price equalization, so that wages are equal across countries when measured in efficiency units of labor. The estimated gains from removing immigration restrictions are huge. Using a simple static model of migration costs, the estimated net gains from open borders are about the same as the gains from a growth miracle that more than doubles the income level in less-developed countries.     

Sibling gender and wage differences

Family influences on economic performance are investigated. In particular, sibship sex composition is related to hourly wages using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. The wages of men are increasing in the proportion of siblings who are brothers, but the wages of women are insensitive to sibling gender. Nonwage outcomes are generally unaffected. Contrasts by age structure and demographic group are also presented. The analysis addresses econometric challenges like the endogeneity of fertility and selection into the workforce. In addition, mechanisms such as labour market interactions, human capital investment and role model effects are documented. A questionnaire on job search indicates a same-gender bias in the use of brothers and sisters in obtaining employment. Developmental and psychological assessments suggest that brothers may be associated with worse childhood home environments and more traditional family attitudes among women. The findings are policy relevant and contribute to an understanding of gender differences and earnings inequality.     

农业生态效率评价及提升路径研究——基于山东省17个地级市的实证分析

将农业碳排放和农业面源污染作为非期望产出纳入评价体系,采用包含非期望产出的SBM模型测度2000—2017年山东省17个地级市的农业生态效率,利用ArcGIS技术和莫兰指数展现农业生态效率的空间分布特征,并运用冗余率剖析效率损失原因,提出针对性改进建议。研究发现:(1)山东省农业生态效率整体较高但地区差异明显,济南、烟台处于效率有效状态,其余各市处于非有效状态。从历年趋势看,农业生态效率均值在研究期内呈现缓慢下降态势,2013—2017年稳定在中等效率水平。(2)从空间特征来看,山东省农业生态效率呈现正的空间相关性,总体上“低—低”集聚型和“低—高”集聚型地区偏多,中部和东部沿海地区为两个高效率集团。(3)从生态效率损失原因来看,农药投入、劳动力投入和农业面源污染物排放是主要原因。此外,不同地区效率损失的具体原因也存在差异。因此,要想获得生态效率的提升,有必要从生产要素投入和污染物排放两方面进行管控和改善,探索建立跨区域的农业生态化发展合作机制。     

Explaining the performance of state–community joint forest management in India

This paper seeks to identify and analyze the factors that explain differential outcomes of joint forest management (JFM) in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. Factors affecting the performances of JFM communities are analyzed using an ordered logit model. The results indicate that JFM communities are more likely to perform well when they are smaller in size and when forest resources in the JFM community are scarce. Presence of social capital and high value forests are also likely to promote good forest growth. Effective protection of forests is likely to contribute to the growth of forests. JFM communities that were initiated by NGOs are more likely to manage forests effectively than the one initiated by the Forest Department.     

陕西省粮食单产影响因子分析及粮食灾损评估

本文从陕西粮食生产面临的严峻形势及粮食单产存在的波动性入手,运用主成分分析方法,归纳提取出本省粮食单产的四个主要影响因子,即：农业生产要素投入与热量因子,抗灾能力与水分因子,水土保持因子,旱涝保收因子,并对分析结果进行了探讨。随后,以上述分析为基础,对陕西省50年来的粮食灾损状况进行了评估。最后,分析与总结评估结果,提出了加快陕西农业稳定发展的指导性建议。