Residential Building Permits in Urban Counties: 1990–1997

This paper presents simple empirical models of residential building permits for urban counties in the United States for the period 1990–1997. Building permits, as a percentage of the housing stock, are greater the larger are population growth, the proportion of units that are old (built before 1940), and the proportion of units that are new. A higher initial vacancy rate reduces building permits.     

对我国商品房整体空置率的分析与判断

在商品房空置率的计算方法上,国内与国外相比存在着较大的差异,我国的商品房空置率的数据与国外的经验数据不具有可比性.我国商品房空置率计算方法存在着许多缺陷,应借鉴国外商品房空置率计算方法,对我国房地产业的发展现状与商品房整体空置率问题进行正确的判断.     

北京市普通住宅空置量调查

通过对家庭用电量的实地问卷调查,结合地理信息系统等空间分析方法,研究了北京市区普通住宅的空置情况的总体特征,并分析了普通住宅的空置率、空间位置和价格之间的关系.研究结果表明,北京市自2004年开始入住的居住小区中普通住宅的空置率平均为27.16%,处于一个比较高的水平.对普通住宅的空置率的空间特性研究表明,普通住宅的空置率存在由城市中心向郊区递增的特性;由于普通住宅价格水平近年来攀升较快,住宅成本增加较大,普通住宅的空置率和价格之间存在一定程度的正相关.     

北京市东部地区高档公寓租金与空置率相关性研究

本文以北京朝阳区高档公寓租赁市场为研究对象，构建经济模型，分析租金与空置率的内在关系，从而探寻租赁市场的运行规律，为促进租赁市场的良性发展提供参考建议。．研究以北京东部地区2000年第四季度至2010年第三季度的高档公寓实际租金与空置率为数据基础，通过构建两步骤的租金调整方程（two-equation model of rental adjustments）定量分析租金、空置率、自然空置率之间的动态变化。结果表明，北京市朝阳区高档公寓的空置率与其租金之间未表现出显著的正相关，但二者均受到通货膨胀的影响。     

Do Employers Respond to the Costs of Continued Search?*

An analysis of US and Slovenian vacancy data sets reveals that an employer who is searching to fill a job vacancy is more likely to fill the vacancy by hiring an under‐qualified worker when the search costs are higher; when, at the start of the search, the employer has less time to search at low cost; and during the week following an increase in search costs. These are interesting findings not only about the effects of search costs on employers’ hiring decisions, but also because they suggest that search frictions in the two labour markets may be considerable.     

Vacancy posting, job separation and unemployment fluctuations

What is the relative importance of hiring and separation in driving unemployment fluctuations? This paper presents a framework to decompose the moments of unemployment and study the respective contributions of vacancy posting, a measure of firms’ hiring efforts, and separation. Separation accounts for about 40% of unemployment's variance, compared to 60% for vacancy posting, and contributes to about 60% of unemployment steepness asymmetry, the fact that unemployment increases faster than it decreases. Further, while vacancy posting is, on average, the most important contributor of unemployment fluctuations, the opposite is true around business cycle turning points, when separation is responsible for most of unemployment movements.     

投资性住房需求对商品房空置率的影响分析

文章通过对比商品房空置率分别在投资性住房需求比例不变、上升与下降时的大小,分析了投资性住房需求对商品房空置率的影响。     

Foreclosure,vacancy and crime

This paper examines the impact of residential foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime. To overcome confounding factors, a difference-in-difference research design is applied to a unique data set containing geocoded foreclosure and crime data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Results indicate that while foreclosure alone has no effect on crime, violent crime rates increase by roughly 19% once the foreclosed home becomes vacant – an effect that increases with length of vacancy. We find weak evidence suggesting a potential vacancy effect for property crime that is much lower in magnitude.     

Employers' hiring practices,employment protection,and costly search: A vacancy-level analysis

An employer with a vacancy may respond to high search costs by lowering hiring requirements. While such an adjustment increases the employer's chances of filling the vacancy, it also more likely results in a match that terminates when the match is hit by match-specific productivity shocks. Drawing on a novel Slovenian vacancy dataset, we find that employers who are searching to fill temporary positions are more likely to hire underqualified workers when search costs are high. We find that search costs are taken into consideration when employers are searching to fill permanent positions in some specifications but not all. These findings suggest that for employers who are searching to fill a permanent position, the benefits of lowering hiring requirements when search costs are high are likely outweighed by: a) high firing costs if an under-qualified worker is hired on a permanent contract or b) the costs of undertaking a new search later if an under-qualified worker is hired on a temporary contract. These are novel findings about the employers' hiring practices in the presence of employment protection laws and costly search.     

Estimating the probability of a match using microeconomic data for the youth labour market

In this paper, we estimate the probability of a match for contacts between job seekers and vacancies. We relate the determinants of a match to the characteristics of the job seeker, the vacancy, and labour market conditions. Our main results are: ethnic minorities are discriminated against, but women are not; employers ‘cream’ the market and job seekers are ranked by their labour market state; high wage offers have a lower probability of a match; the probability of filling a job vacancy falls with vacancy duration, the higher stock of unemployed youths in a labour market, and the larger Careers Service; the probability of a match increases with job seeker duration.     

Deconstructing distressed-property spillovers: The effects of vacant,tax-delinquent,and foreclosed properties in housing submarkets

In this empirical analysis, we estimate the impacts of property-tax delinquency, vacancy, and foreclosures on the value of neighboring homes. We demonstrate that these externalities differ in high- and low-poverty submarkets. Numerous studies have estimated the externality of foreclosures. These papers theorize that the foreclosure impact works partially through creating vacant and neglected homes. To our knowledge, this is only the second attempt to estimate the impact of vacancy itself and the first to use tax-delinquency as a measure of property neglect. We link vacancy observations from Postal Service data with property-tax delinquency and sales data from Cuyahoga County, Ohio. We find that an additional property within 500 ft that is vacant or delinquent reduces a home’s selling price by 1 to 2%. In low-poverty submarkets, the negative impact of a home that is both vacant and delinquent is ?4.6%. Low-poverty submarkets penalize a sale near a tax-current recent foreclosure by 4 to 8%. In high-poverty submarkets, we observe positive correlations of sale prices with vacant foreclosures. This may reflect lenders selectively foreclosing only on relatively well-maintained properties.     

Vacancy transfers and job restructuring in regional labor markets

Transformation of and adjustments in a regional labor market system are analyzed through a Markov model of job vacancy transfers. Adjustments in response to a labor demand shock are examined for disequilibrium and time characteristics for closed and open labor systems with inmigration absorbing job vacancies. The regional labor market is specified for active employer recruitment of workers which introduces planning and control over labor demand and vacancy dynamics.     

Efficiency rents: A new theory of the natural vacancy rate for rental housing

This paper adapts the theory of efficiency wages to explain the natural vacancy rate in rental housing markets. A positive vacancy rate provides landlords an incentive to invest in maintenance because if they fail to do so, some tenants will leave and the unit will sit vacant for a finite period of time. The resulting foregone rent will penalize landlords’ failure to maintain. Habitability laws, which have been enacted by states since the 1960s, provide a non-market penalty which lessens the need for market enforcement. Variation in these laws by state offers an opportunity to test the theory.     

Renter Mobility and Multifamily Mortgage Default Risk

Renter mobility is a major concern for the performance of multifamily mortgages. If enough new renters are not found to replace those that move, vacancy rates can quickly escalate to where cash flows are negative and property mortgages are in jeopardy. In this study we examine how differences in renter mobility patterns by property type can affect mortgage credit risk within submarkets of an MSA. We expand the default model developed by Goldberg and Capone (2000) to use unique distributions of rental unit turnover and vacancy durations for large and small multifamily rental properties. Monte Carlo simulations then show how credit risk on multifamily mortgages is affected if owners of small properties are able to keep tenants longer than owners of larger properties can. The model can be used to explore other potential intra-MSA differences in property market dynamics.     

An approach to discovering new technology opportunities: Keyword-based patent map approach

This paper proposes an approach for creating and utilizing keyword-based patent maps for use in new technology creation activity. The proposed approach comprises the following sub-modules. First, text mining is used to transform patent documents into structured data to identify keyword vectors. Second, principal component analysis is employed to reduce the numbers of keyword vectors to make suitable for use on a two-dimensional map. Third, patent ‘vacancies’, defined as blank areas in the map that are sparse in patent density but large in size, are identified. The validity of the vacancy is then tested against such criteria as technological criticality and technological trends. If a vacancy is judged as meaningful, its technological features are investigated in detail to identify the potential for new technology creation. The procedure of the proposed approach is described in detail by employing an illustrative patent database and is implemented into an expert system for new technology creation.     

瑞士住宅市场特征解读及启示

与其他国家相比,瑞士住宅市场有四大特征:一是瑞士居民主体以租房为主,房地产的自有化率比较低;二是瑞士的房价高,但住宅市场保持平稳,并未出现周期性的高潮阶段和低谷阶段;三是瑞士住宅市场的空置率很低;四是公共租赁房占据租赁市场的最大份额。这些特征可以为我国的房地产政策的长效机制提供借鉴。     

Rent control and homelessness

The purposes of this paper are to produce more precise estimates of the effect of rent control on homelessness using microdata on housed and homeless households and to provide evidence concerning the mechanisms through which rent control might affect homelessness. Our results suggest that rent control does increase homelessness by decreasing the rental vacancy rate and increasing the rental price of housing in the uncontrolled sector but that these effects of rent control are offset by other effects that decrease homelessness. We cannot reject the hypothesis that rent control has no net effect on homelessness.     

Externalities in the matching of workers and firms in Britain

We provide empirical evidence on the nature of spatial externalities in a matching model for Britain. We use a monthly panel of outflows, unemployment and vacancy stocks data from the registers at Jobcentres in Britain; these are mapped onto travel-to-work areas. We find evidence of significant spill-over effects that are generally in line with the predictions of theory. For example, we find that conditional on local labour market conditions, high unemployment levels in neighbouring areas raise the number of local filled vacancies but lower the local outflow from unemployment.     

房地产泡沫实证分析——以天津市为例

从房地产价格增长率/GDP增长率、房价收入比、房地产开发投资/全社会固定资产投资、商品房施工面积/商品房竣工面积、房屋空置率和销售竣工比、货币供给(M2)增长率等多个泡沫指标比较来看:1996～2008年天津市的房地产投资热度持续升温,商品房价格持续快速上涨,2003～2008年间,天津房地产市场发展过热,房地产市场存在一定的泡沫现象。而加强土地监管,遏制外国游资,增加信息透明度,完善住房保障制度,强化经济杠杆的调控作用,拓宽融资渠道,优化房地产业投资结构,多种措施抑制炒房,发展经济,提高居民收入是抑制房地产泡沫进一步膨胀的有效对策。     

基于儿童教育市场的特征分析

目前,儿童自闭症等问题的频频出现,反映出了社会与家庭对于儿童心理教育的严重缺失。基于儿童教育市场的特征分析,利用问卷调查的方法,我们发现国内专注儿童心理问题的机构寥寥无几。为此我们创立了这家咨询服务有限责任公司,旨在填补儿童心理问题的市场空缺,帮助儿童从小树立正确的价值观。