Imperfect capital markets and life-cycle consumption

This paper develops a long-range consumption planning model which, unlike conventional life-cycle theory, admits a disparity between borrowing and lending rates of interest. It is shown that, when capital markets are imperfect, optimal consumption depends not only upon an arithmetic average of the household's intertemporal income distribution, the traditional life-cycle income variable, but also upon current income and higher-order moments of that income distribution. The consumption function is estimated using the 1967–1968 CEDE budget survey of four major Colombian cities. A test is made to determine whether the assumption of perfect capital markets is acceptable for empirical approximation. The results strongly indicate that, for households in middle and lower income classes, the explanatory power of the consumption function can be raised by introducing a more flexible life- time budget constraint. The model is then estimated and used to compute the marginal consumption responses of Colombian households to transitory and permanent income changes.     

Imperfect competition in financial markets and capital structure

We consider a model of corporate finance with imperfectly competitive financial intermediaries. Firms can finance projects either via debt or via equity. Because of asymmetric information about firms’ growth opportunities, equity financing involves a dilution cost. Nevertheless, equity emerges in equilibrium whenever financial intermediaries have sufficient market power. In the latter case, best firms issue debt while the less profitable firms are equity-financed. We also show that strategic interaction between oligopolistic intermediaries results in multiple equilibria. If one intermediary chooses to buy more debt, the price of debt decreases, so the best equity-issuing firms switch from equity to debt financing. This in turn decreases average quality of equity-financed pool, so other intermediaries also shift towards more debt.     

Discrimination among alternative models of international capital markets

Most empirical capital flow studies have estimated individual models, many by assuming exogenous interest rates. None of these studies has examined interest rate interdependence from the perspective of the models. In this study, a simultaneous equation model of capital flows containing previous models as special cases is estimated using the cross spectral technique of model discrimination. Based on examination of both the flow-differential link and interest rate interdependence resulting from capital flows, the evidence 1) supports a simultaneous equation stock adjustment model, and 2) suggests that interest rate endogeneity may not imply serious simultaneous equation bias for those previous studies which assume exogenous interest rates.     

Imperfect competition in two-sided matching markets

This paper considers a simple equilibrium model of an imperfectly competitive two-sided matching market. Firms and workers may have heterogeneous preferences over matches on the other side, and the model allows for both uniform and personalized wages or contracts. To make the model tractable, I use the Azevedo and Leshno (2013) framework, in which a finite number of firms is matched to a continuum of workers.In equilibrium, even if wages are exogenous and fixed, firms have incentives to strategically reduce their capacity, to increase the quality of their worker pool. The intensity of incentives to reduce capacity is given by a simple formula, analogous to the classic Cournot model, but depends on different moments of the distribution of preferences. I compare markets with uniform and personalized wages. For fixed quantities, markets with personalized wages always yield higher efficiency than markets with uniform wages, but may be less efficient if firms reduce capacity to avoid bidding too much for star workers.     

Farm settlement with imperfect capital markets: a life-cycle application to Upper Canada, 1826–1851

Farm settlement, where borrowing is constrained, is addressed with a life‐cycle model. Because a pioneer farm must be cleared before becoming productive, the settler first accumulates in order to purchase supplies and maintain consumption during the initial years. Implications of the model are explored using data from Upper Canada, 1826–1851: age at settlement is delayed. Settlers eventually receive higher incomes than those who do not settle; rising life expectancy contributes to settlement; an immediate income is a prerequisite to settlement. Such findings conform to the experience of Upper Canada and other pioneer areas and may also illuminate aspects of migration. JEL classification: N31, J61 Colonisation agricole quand les marchés du capital sont imparfaits:une application du modèle du cycle de vie au Haut‐Canada, 1826–51. L'auteur examine le processus de colonisation agricole quand il y a contraintes sur les emprunts à l'aide d'un modèle de cycle de vie. Parce qu'un pionnier doit d'abord défricher avant que la ferme ne soit productive, le colon doit avoir préalablement accumulé un certain pécule afin de pouvoir acheter le matériel nécessaire et maintenir sa consommation durant les premières années de colonisation. On analyse les implications de ce modèle en utilisant les données pour le Haut Canada de 1826 à1851. Entre autres résultats, on note que l'âge où l'on s'installe est reporté; que ceux qui colonisent éventuellement reçoivent des revenus beaucoup plus élevés que ceux qui ne le font pas; que la croissance de l'espérance de vie tend à encourager la colonisation; et qu'une source immédiate de revenus est un prérequis à la colonisation. Ces résultats et certains autres sont conformes à ce que l'on observe dans le Haut Canada et dans les autres zones de colonisation, et il peuvent jeter un peu de lumière sur certains aspects du processus de migration.     

Imperfect competition in agricultural markets: evidence from Ethiopia

Drawing upon unique transaction-level data from rural Ethiopia, this paper tests for general forms of imperfect competition among rural wholesale traders. These are key to the grain distribution system as they purchase from farmers and perform interregional trade. Tests show that traders in a typical source market engage in imperfectly competitive behavior in purchasing from farmers, driving down the price paid to farmers approximately 3%. In contrast, there is no conclusive evidence of imperfect competition among traders in the larger, more centrally located market studied. Thus, efficiency losses due to market structure are likely to be greatest in markets which also have poor road links and lesser volumes of marketed grain.     

Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis

The impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market is examined. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982–1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of 42 severe storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires (wildfires) during this period with an insured loss in excess of A$5 mil. and/or total loss in excess of A$100 mil. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are used to model the returns and the inclusion of news arrival, in the form of the natural disasters, is specified using intervention analysis. The results indicate that bushfires, cyclones and earthquakes have a major effect on market returns, unlike severe storms and floods. The net effects can be positive and/or negative with most effects being felt on the day of the event and with some adjustment in the days that follow.     

Empirical evidence for trends in capital markets

The random walk hypothesis of price formation in capital markets is tested against a price-trend hypothesis, using a new test statistic. Empirical results prove that commodity and currency prices are not random but exhibit price-trend behaviour.     

Imperfect information, Bayesian learning, and capital accumulation

This paper examines the consequences of informational imperfections for economic growth in an overlapping generations model in which agents learn the technological parameters in a Bayesian fashion. Under mild sufficient conditions, beliefs converge to the true value of the technological parameters. Nevertheless, even short-lived informational imperfections could have lasting effects, as they alter the long-run equilibrium levels of the capital stock. Therefore, learning dynamics may explain some of the observed differences in the performance of countries with otherwise similar economic characteristics.     

Institutionalized monopsonistic capital markets in a developing economy

This paper presents a plausible story on capital market imperfections and fits it in a Pasinetti-style growth model. The first object is to show that, in a developing economy, credit rationing may well be explained by the institutionalized monopsonistic capital market. The second object is to amplify the intimate relationship between real and monetary phenomena by presenting a simple conceptual framework to link the financial sector and the real sector via workers' demand for monetary assets and entrepreneurs' capital formation. The foremost emphasis is given to the fact that entrepreneurs and workers do not have the same ability and opportunity to invest their saved income.     

Technology acquisition models for fast followers in high-technological markets: an empirical analysis of the LED industry

The rapid rate of technology obsolescence in many high-technology markets makes it imperative for firms to renew their technological bases constantly. Given its critical importance, the technology acquisition from the fast followers’ perspective needs to be the subject of careful analysis. This paper aims to identify the factors influencing fast-follower firms’ choice of technology acquisition model, using a multi-factorial analysis and taking into account their technological capabilities, marketing capabilities, and environmental risk tradeoffs. This study sourced data from the Securities Data Company (SDC) Platinum Database for a total of 205 instances of technological cooperation between technology holders and fast followers in the LED industry. Based on the empirical results, some significant findings were found. First, regarding technological capabilities, when fast-follower firms had greater R&D, complementary manufacturing capabilities, and technological similarities with the partners, they preferred the acquisition model that required higher resource commitments. Secondly, when fast followers had marketing channel advantages, they were more likely to choose a high resource-commitment acquisition model to obtain time-to-market benefits.     

Ethics,welfare, and capital markets

We examine implications of a society's cultural emphasis on moral sentiments. Entrepreneurs and investors interact in a game that entails both adverse selection and moral hazard; entrepreneurs may attempt to breach their contracts and expropriate investors. An agent is born into a particular culture but chooses whether to develop a moral conscience and thereby subject himself to moral sentiments. In equilibrium, societies that place less emphasis on guilt exhibit a lower risk of expropriation in contracts, a greater net price of capital, a larger size of firms, increased capital inflows and greater social welfare. The results of a greater emphasis on pride are in the same direction.     

Imperfect competition and capital accumulation: the role of price normalization

We consider a capital-accumulation model with infinitely lived households and two production sectors. The intermediate-good sector is characterized by perfect competition, a constant-returns-to-scale technology, and production externalities. The final-good sector is a monopoly operating under constant returns to scale. We analyze the general equilibrium in the sense of Gabszewicz and Vial [Journal of Economic Theory (1972) 4: 381–400] for this economy and different price-normalization rules. It is shown that the qualitative behavior of the equilibrium paths depends crucially on the chosen normalization rule. In particular, whether equilibria are monotonic or oscillating and whether indeterminacy occurs or not may depend on the choice of the numeraire.     

COVID-19, asset markets and capital flows

This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID-19 outbreak, with special focus on the dynamics of capital flows across 14 emerging market economies. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to COVID-19 is also tested. Using daily data over the period January 4, 2010 to August 31, 2020, and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impacts on stock, bond and exchange rates due to COVID-19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus packages mainly helped to boost stock prices, notably for advanced and emerging economies in Asia. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world's leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID-19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries extended to EMEs, with significant positive spillovers to EME stock markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be persistent effects on bond markets in emerging Europe and on EME capital flows.     

论我国资本市场的金融抑制和金融深化

自上世纪90年代开始,我国资本市场的发展已形成了初步的规模,但到目前为止依然存在着结构不合理,政策性因素明显的问题。资本市场的发展是分化金融风险的需要,是国有企业改革的需要,是国家宏观调控和产业结构升级的需要。但在发展中必须把握系统原则、渐进原则、开放原则和创新原则。     

Finance capital in dynamic factor-demand models

Researchers often use the discrepancy between self-reported and biochemically assessed active smoking status to argue that self-reported smoking status is not reliable, ignoring the limitations of biochemically assessed measures and treating it as the gold standard in their comparisons. Here, we employ econometric techniques to compare the accuracy of self-reported and biochemically assessed current tobacco use, taking into account measurement errors with both methods. Our approach allows estimating and comparing the sensitivity and specificity of each measure without directly observing true smoking status. The results, robust to several alternative specifications, suggest that there is no clear reason to think that one measure dominates the other in accuracy.     

A note on capital markets and bankruptcy constraints in contracting

This note considers the extent to which state-contingent bankruptcy constraints in a standard contracting problem with adverse selection can be mitigated by a risk-neutral third party. It shows that if payoffs of principal and agent are quasi-linear, the third party can only affect the constraints if it has complete information about the agent's type — observing a correlated signal is not enough.     

Matching and bargaining models of markets: approximating small markets by large markets

Summary. We show that the equilibrium of a matching and bargaining model of a market in which there is a finite number of agents at each date need not be near the equilibrium of a market with a continuum of agents, although matching probabilities are the same in both markets. Holding the matching process fixed, as the finite market becomes large its equilibrium approaches the equilibrium of its continuum limit.Received: January 22, 1996; revised version: September 24, 1996This revised version was published online in February 2005 with corrections to the cover date.     

Differences in growth with international capital markets and financial innovation

This paper presents a model in which technological progress affects the productivity of the financial sector. When technological progress moves quicky, the financial intermediation costs are low, which increases the incentives to invest in new technology. This feedback process involves two types of long-run equilibria: one with low financial intermediation costs and high growth, and the other with high financial intermediation costs and low growth. These divergences in growth rates among countries hold even in the presence of international capital markets with free capital mobility, a very unusual result in the endogenous growth literature.