Optimal output and the theory of the firm under uncertainty

This letter analyzes the sensitivity of the optimal output set by a firm faced by demand uncertainty to changes in the shape of its cost and revenue functions.     

On the theory of the competitive labor-managed firm under price uncertainty

The short-run behavior of a labor-managed firm under competitive assumptions and price uncertainty is analyzed assuming risk aversion. It is compared with its behavior under certainty and the behavior of a capitalist-managed firm under price uncertainty. It is shown that a risk-averse labor-managed firm employs more labor than a risk-neutral labor-managed firm. Generally, uncertainty is seen to have greater impact on the behavior of a labor-managed firm than on the behavior of a capitalist-managed firm. Except under constant risk aversion, the behavior of a labor-managed firm under price uncertainty is less predictable than that of a capitalist-managed firm.     

Timing of decisions and the competitive firm under input price uncertainty

This paper studies the behavior of a competitive firm faced with input price uncertainty when the ex ante decision variable is output, not the quantities of the inputs. Highly unconventional results are obtained about the effects of uncertainty and of marginal increases in risk.     

Forward markets and the multiproduct,multifactor firm under price uncertainty

In this paper a competitive firm producing multiple outputs with multiple inputs is examined. All input and output prices are uncertain, and forward markets exist for all prices. The firm's optimal production and forward market strategies are analyzed.     

Risk preference and productivity measurement under output price uncertainty

This paper deals with joint estimation of production and risk preference functions in the presence of output price uncertainty. We use quadratic production and utility functions under the assumption that producers maximize expected utility of anticipated profit. A panel data on Norwegian salmon farms is used for this purpose. Empirical results show that all salmon farmers are risk averse. Relative risk premium (the implicit cost of private risk bearing) is found to be about 15% of mean profit. We also find rapid technological change taking place (3.75% per year) in the salmon farming industry. First version received: February 2000/Final version received: February 2001     

A martingale characterization of the price of a nonrenewable resource with decisions involving uncertainty

This paper presents a general model of nonrenewable resource consumption and exploration decisions involving uncertainty about the time of occurrence of an event such as exhaustion, stock discovery, or a substitute development. The resulting price process is characterized in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions under which the price is expected to rise at a rate equal to, greater than, or less than the discount rate. The general model is illustrated and the price process and the optimal decisions are characterized by examining the three types of uncertainty indicated above.     

Asymmetries in price and quantity adjustments by the competitive firm

Focusing on the crucial role of inventory carry-overs in the production and sales decision, we describe the profit maximizing behavior of a dynamic competitive firm facing random prices. Each firm's behavior is incorporated into a stochastic equilibrium model of the competitive industry with uncertain demand. The industry model exhibits asymmetric cyclical fluctuations of the “Keynesian” sort: when demand is weak, output contracts while price holds at a fixed floor; when demand is strong, price increases as output is constrained by a ceiling. Even in a pure world of constant returns, without increasing costs, the inability to instantaneously coordinate production and sales along with the existence of inventories is sufficient to yield a “backward L” shaped supply curve for the short run.     

Investment and the persistence of price uncertainty

Do permanent and transitory price uncertainty have a differential impact on investment? In a sample of Italian industries, a negative relationship between the accumulation of fixed capital and the persistence of price uncertainty is indicated by a measure of the size of the random walk associated to the price forecast errors computed from auxiliary regressions. This empirical finding confirms the existence of moderate costs of inflation related to the investment response and suggests that persistent price shocks dynamics affect the accumulation process more than relatively transitory impulses, a result which is not in contrast with irreversibility theories: accordingly, agents are waiting for more information, until temporary uncertainty is resolved.     

The effect of production uncertainty on the labor-managed firm

The effects of production uncertainty on the behavior of the labor-managed, cooperative firm are examined and it is shown that they generally differ from the case of certainty and the case of the entrepreneurial, profit-maximizing firm. In particular, it is shown that the risk-averse (risk-seeking) cooperative will have a larger (smaller) ratio of labor to nonlabor input employed in production than the risk-neutral cooperative.     

A nearly complete test of a capital accumulating,vertically integrated,nonrenewable resource extracting theory of a competitive firm

A new approach to testing a generalized Hotelling theory of a nonrenewable resource extracting firm is developed. In contrast to approaches extant, it (i) permits empirical testing of all the refutable implications of the theory, (ii) does not require estimates of, or data on, the shadow value of the resource stock, (iii) does not require estimation of the feedback control functions or the necessary conditions associated with the underlying optimal control problem, and (iv) treats the capital stock in a theoretically sound manner in the econometric model. Because of certain limitations in the data, most, but not all, of the refutable implications of the theory are tested using a Bayesian approach. Other limitations in the data mean that the paper is better viewed as an illustration of how one would go about rigorously testing the extended Hotelling theory, rather than as one which presents convincing empirical evidence that supports or refutes it.     

Incentive compatibility and the quantity-setting competitive firm under demand uncertainty

This paper examines the tie between the popular black box neoclassical quantity-setting firm under demand uncertainty and a firm with a rudimentary but explicit employee relation organizational structure in which workers are offered fixed wages for following management directives. Surprisingly, the quantity-setting firm unambiguously mimics optimal employment relation hiring and work rules when the contract is incentive-compatible ex post. The attitude toward risk is shown to be the key determinant of whether or not the quantity-setting firm replicates the optimal employment relation contract when ex post incentive-compatibility is relaxed.     

Price uncertainty,economies of scale and the competitive firm

The supply correspondence of a competitive firm facing price uncertainty is characterized assuming the firm to be asymptotically risk averse.