International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology–level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national – and firm–level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

Institutional mobility and the management of technology and science

Using a theory which views scientzjc or technological innovation as generated from a re-synthesis of prevzously existzng knowledges and techniques—in general obtained zn various different institutional environments, both inside and outside the firm—policies are proposed for optimizing the mobility (and, hence, interactions) of the carriers of these knowledges and techniques.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Finite Sample Limited Information Inference Methods for Structural Equations and Models With Generated Regressors

We propose exact tests and confidence sets for various structural models typically estimated by IV methods, such as models with unobserved regressors, which remain valid despite the presence of identification problems or weak instruments. Two approaches are considered: (1) an instrument substitution method, which generalizes the Anderson–Rubin procedure, and (2) a sample‐split method, that allows the use of “generated regressors.” Projection techniques are also proposed for inference on general parameter transformations. The asymptotic theory of the tests under weaker assumptions is discussed. Simulation results are presented. The suggested techniques are applied to a model of Tobin's q and to a model of academic performance.     

The Hicks‐Malinvaud average period of production and ‘marginal productivity’: A critical assessment

Abstract

Malinvaud took up the concept of the average period of production introduced by Hicks in Value and Capital and then Capital and Time, in an article of 2003 celebrating Wicksell's contribution to the theory of capital, where he observed that once techniques are ranked according to the average period for a given initial rate of interest, a rise in the rate of interest entails the use of a technique with a shorter average period. After a brief reconstruction of Malinvaud's argument, it is shown that the result is far less encouraging for neoclassical theory than it might seem. The most important problem is not the fact that change in the interest rate affects the average period of production associated with a technique, despite the concern this aroused in Hicks and Malinvaud, but rather that it affects the ranking of techniques. An example with two techniques is used to show that a rise in the rate of interest entails the use of a technique with a shorter average period even in the case of reswitching simply because the ranking of techniques is inverted at the two switch points.     

Non parametric VaR Techniques. Myths and Realities

VaR (value-at-risk) estimates are currently based on two main techniques: the variance-covariance approach or simulation. Statistical and computational problems affect the reliability of these techniques. We illustrate a new technique – filtered historical simulation (FHS) – designed to remedy some of the shortcomings of the simulation approach. We compare the estimates it produces with traditional bootstrapping estimates.
(J.E.L.: G19).     

A Note on Reswitching and Intertemporal Prices

Abstract

Bliss (Capital Theory and Distribution of Income, Amsterdam/New York: North-Holland/Elsevier) claims that reswitching is nothing but an ‘optical illusion’ due to the exclusion of non-stationary price sequences from the analysis. This note develops this point. The standard case for choice of techniques and reswitching is reformulated in terms of Arrow-Debreu intertemporal prices and the conditions making these prices stationary are highlighted separately. It is then shown that the analysis of the choice of techniques in terms of ‘switch points’ requires stationary conditions.     

Global factor trade with differentiated factor prices and factor intensities

Abstract .  Relaxing the assumption of internationally identical factor intensity techniques in the HOV model creates two challenges. First, computing actual factor intensity techniques of different countries requires detailed input-output tables and factor usage data, which are not always available. Second, determinants of the factor intensity technique differences across countries need to be identified. This paper explores the role of relative factor price differences in the determination of factor intensity technique differences across countries and proposes an inferring method that infers factor intensity techniques of different countries based on relative factor price differences. The HOV model is then modified accordingly.     

On the determinants of local government performance: A two-stage nonparametric approach

This article analyzes the efficiency of local governments in the Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) and their main explanatory variables. The analysis is performed in two stages. Firstly, efficiency is measured via (nonparametric) activity analysis techniques. Specifically, we consider both Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposable Hull (FDH) techniques. The second stage identifies some critical determinants of efficiency, focusing on both political and fiscal policy variables. In contrast to previous two-stage research studies, our approach performs the latter attempt via nonparametric smoothing techniques, rather than econometric methods such as OLS or Tobit related techniques. Results show that efficiency scores, especially under the nonconvexity assumption (FDH), are higher for large municipalities. Thus, there is empirical evidence to suggest that resources may be better allocated by large municipalities. However, the inefficiency found is not entirely attributable to poor management, as second-stage analysis reveals both fiscal and political variables to be explicably related to municipality performance. Moreover, the explanatory variables’ impact on efficiency is robust to the chosen technique—either convex DEA or nonconvex FDH.     

International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning

New, techniques of international patent anabsis are illustrated and resultsfrom preliminary validity tests of these techniques are presented. Indicators of technological activity, technological significance and commercial potential are constructed, and used to analyze fiber-based opto-electronic couplers and monoclonal-antibody-based diagnostic kits at the levels o f the technology, nation and firm. The international patent indicators are found to be closely correlated with R&D expenditures, scientific publications and new product introductions. They also relate to these indicators in ways that moke sense as specified in simple regression models of the innovation process. Comparisons of patent analysis results with expert opinion (for two process technologies) reveal that technology-level analyzes conform quite well with expert opinion, but national - and firm-level analyes vary from a low to a modest correlation with expert opinion. The authors conclude that the techniques can provide important information for corporate technology management, but that studies of additional technologies and further validity tests are needed.     

Search,selection, and shortage in an industry composed of labor-managed firms

Evolutionary models of an industry composed of labor-managed firms are constructed. In these models, search or selection processes—in the sense of Nelson and Winter—determine what production techniques are used. If certain types of subsidies are introduced into these models, shortage—in the sense of Kornai—results. How search and selection processes promote use of cost-minimizing techniques and how subsidies may stifle or deflect these processes is investigated through ten propositions. These propositions are applied to illuminate Yugoslavia's slow adjustment to increases in the relative price of oil.     

Exploring Links Between Innovation and Diffusion: Adoption of NO<Subscript>X</Subscript> Control Technologies at US Coal-fired Power Plants

While many studies have looked at innovation and adoption of technologies separately, the two processes are linked. Advances (and expected advances) in a single technology should affect both its adoption rate and the adoption of alternative technologies. This paper combines plant-level data on US coal-fired electric power plants with patent data pertaining to NO_X pollution control techniques to study this link. As in other studies of environmental technologies, the effect of other explanatory variables is dominated by the effect of environmental regulations, demonstrating that the mere presence of environmental technologies is not enough to encourage its usage. Nonetheless, I do find that technological advances are important for the adoption of existing combustion modification technologies. However, these advances are less important for the adoption of newer post-combustion control techniques, which are adopted only when needed to comply with the strictest emission limits.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Mutual understanding and its influence on formulation during planning

Planning success often depends on the ability of managers who initiate a planning process and their agents (planners) to develop mutual understanding. In this article, argumentation is used to show how planners and managers communicate during the formulation stage of planning. This analysis finds that process-oriented planners attempting to work with managers who take on a broker, rationalist, zealot, or visionary roles are faced with a variety of pitfalls and opportunities. Planning techniques that complement each role's strengths and overcome weaknesses as well as techniques that cater to the role's biases are suggested. The feasibility of using each technique for each role is discussed.     

Financial distress,financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques.     

A comparison of commodity price forecasting by Box-Jenkins and regression-based techniques

This article describes a study of forecasting methods performed for the corporate purchasing function, which required monthly forecasts of high-volume rubber-commodity prices as an aid to formulating its future purchasing strategy. Four mathematical forecasting procedures are applied to the same set of rubber-commodity price-index data. The forecasting techniques used are the Box-Jenkins time-series method, multiple linear regression analysis, and two new regression-based techniques, referred to as minimum relative error regressionanalysis and dynamic regression analysis.The rationale behind each method is briefly described. The forecast results generated by each algorithm are presented in graphic and numerical form. The accuracy of each method is evaluated by comparing forecasted versus actual values of the rubber-commodity price index. For this data, the new minimum relative error regression technique compares quite favorably with the powerful Box-Jenkins method, followed by standard multiple regression. The dynamic regression method is the least accurate of the four in this application.     

Technological progress and regress in pre-industrial times

This paper offers micro-foundations for the dynamic relationship between technology and population in the pre-industrial world, accounting for both technological progress and the hitherto neglected but common phenomenon of technological regress. A positive feedback between population and the adoption of new techniques that increase the division of labor explains technological progress. A transient shock to productivity or population induces the neglect of some techniques rendered temporarily unprofitable, which are therefore not transmitted to the next generation. Productivity remains constrained by the smaller stock of knowledge and technology has thereby regressed. A slow process of rediscovery is required for the economy to reach its previous level of technological sophistication and population size. The model is employed to analyze specific historical examples of technological regress.

Jared Diamond, Ten Thousand Years of Solitude, 1993.

     

On technological implications of the wage-profit frontier

This paper examines the equilibrium relation between the wage and profit rates for a technology in which technical parameters vary continuously. It is shown that the existence of a wage-profit frontier implies the existence of functional relationships among the technical parameters. These relationships, called herein characteristic functions, can be expressed in terms of one or more than one independent variable, and it is shown that given certain weak conditions on the functions, only in the former case is reswitching of techniques possible. An inequality is established involving the rates of change, as the profit rate varies, of the technical parameters; it is argued that this inequality can be used to construct functions that order the eligible techniques. Finally, it is argued that the characteristic functions can embody specific, nontechnical relations, so that a “technology” should be broadly interpreted as a collection of techniques of production plus “exogenous” relations that determine which techniques are to be included in the technology.     

Capital-intensity biases in developing country technology choice

Under-employment in developing economies has been attributed to technological determinism or factor-price distortion. The present paper proposes a third view: biases towards capital- intensive techniques which stem from non-economic preferences on the part of engineers, designers, managers, and policy-makers. A fourth possible bias, consumer choice, is discussed and considered less significant. The paper emphasizes engineering biases based on the designers' maximization of ‘technical efficiency’ which is defined in a manner distinct from factor efficiency. Policy implications are that direct action to change attitudinal biases and stimulate development of labour-intensive techniques can contribute considerably to the optimal choice stimulus of corrected factor prices.     

Green Barriers from the Standpoint of Sustainable Development

Abstract

Green barriers are one kind of non‐tariff barrier (NTB). This paper points out that green barriers evolved from sustainable development theory and environmental protection, but are compatible with true comparative advantage. The best way to surmount green barriers for Chinese enterprises is to implement circular production processes and clean production techniques.