固定汇率制度下的财政政策:开放经济宏观经济学的拓展

本文主要建立在新开放主义宏观经济学理论上,进一步拓展和分析不同财政政策在固定汇率制度下对国民经济的影响,如消费、产出与汇率等。通过引入迭代模型的基本框架从而打破传统的李嘉图等价假设,我们发现因为有限生命代理人把所购买的国债看作是一种净财富,所以通过发行债券融资而导致的政府支出暂时的增加毫无疑问地将会增加本国居民相对于国外居民的消费水平。而另一方面,由于汇率水平固定不变和短期的价格粘性,政府支出增加的部分将平均分配给本国和外国商品。因此,政府支出暂时的增加将会减少本国的净国外资产头寸。而对于货币政策来说,本国居民相对消费水平的增加将导致本国货币升值压力,本国中央银行为了维系固定汇率水平不得不被动地增加货币供给。     

基础设施建设支出、结构性减税与最优政策选择

财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明：具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性：发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。     

Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.     

Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output

We study the impact of shocks to different types of government spending on the sectoral composition of output for a panel of EMU member countries. We find that fiscal shocks lead to an increase in the relative size of the nontraded sector, with the impact varying across the different spending categories. There is typically no significant impact on the level of production in the tradables sector but the level of imports increases and the level of exports declines in most cases. Overall, the results show that fiscal shocks matter not only for aggregate variables but also for the sectoral composition of output. The sectoral output results are consistent with previous work concerning the impact of fiscal shocks on the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontradables.     

Ricardian Equivalence and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan

The present paper asks whether there is a limit to the potential for government spending to stimulate output in the Japanese economy. Overlapping generations and Ricardian infinite horizon representative agent models are developed, in which the government spending multiplier falls as the level of spending rises. Consistent with the Ricardian hypothesis, vector autoregressions (VAR) indicate that the timing of taxes has little impact on national output. Conversely, the impact of government spending is significant. However, using non–linear VAR techniques, the author finds empirical evidence for the hypothesis of a regime–dependent government spending multiplier that falls as spending rises.     

Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Mexican output

This paper examines the potential effects of macroeconomic policies, stock market performance, exchange rate fluctuations, and other related variables on real GDP in Mexico. Extending the works by Arango and Nadiri (1981) and Bahmani‐Oskooee and Ng (2002), and applying comparative‐static analysis, possible effects of a change in the exchange rate or government debt on the equilibrium output are examined. All the variables have unit roots and are stationary in first difference. There is a long‐run stable relationship between real GDP and the right‐hand‐side variables. The GARCH(p,q) (Engle 2001) model is applied to estimate regression parameters. Real GDP is positively associated with real M2, government deficit spending, stock prices, U.S. output, and world oil prices, and negatively affected by the government debt ratio, peso depreciation, and the expected inflation rate. Therefore, fiscal policy to incur more debt needs to be pursued with caution, and both net exports and money demand need to be considered in studying the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on output.     

Export Currency Pricing and Fiscal Multipliers

This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the implications of the use of foreign currency in export pricing for fiscal policy in East Asian economies. The result shows that external currency pricing amplifies the effect of an exogenous government spending shock on output. The impact and cumulative multipliers are larger under external currency pricing. However, the result depends on the government policy regime. When the government allows for a systematic response of government spending to public debt, the multipliers in the medium-term are smaller under external currency pricing.     

Exchange Rate Pegs, Fiscal Policy and Credibility

In a fixed exchange rate regime, an exchange rate change can be a swift way to change the real exchange rate in the short run. Fiscal policy also affects relative prices, and fiscal policy response to various types of shocks can therefore be crucial for the credibility of an exchange rate peg. We develop a model within which fiscal policy plays a crucial role for ensuring the viability and thus credibility of an exchange rate peg. We use the insights of this model to take a closer look at Denmark, which has successfully pursued a fixed exchange rate policy since 1982.

Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a small open economy structural vector autoregression model, government spending is found to have weak and largely insignificant impact on output, while taxes are found to have outcomes contrary to conventional theory. Extensions using a time-varying VAR model reveal that the positive impact from higher taxes on output mainly reflects heightened concerns over public finances during the Asian financial crisis and the recent global financial crisis. On the other hand, for Thailand, there is some evidence that government spending can at times be useful as a tool for short-term countercyclical policy.     

Estimating local fiscal multipliers using political connections

We use political connections between central and local governments in China to identify the effects of government spending. Our key innovation is using changes of central government ministers as a source of exogenous variation in earmarked transfers received by prefectural city-level governments. The analysis reveals that the increase in earmarked transfers is temporary and local effective tax rates do not respond to such fiscal expansions. Given that using cross-regional analysis for a monetary union can difference out the influence of monetary policy, the fiscal shock we study is a temporary, non-tax financed and no-monetary-policy-response government spending shock. We find the local fiscal multiplier in China is above one and there are no significant spillover effects from local government spending.     

Great recession,exports crunch,and China's fiscal stimulus in a global zero lower bound environment

This paper develops an open economy model and replicates the exports crunch occurred in China during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. We show that in a global zero lower bond (ZLB) environment, fiscal stimulus significantly mitigates the negative effects of exports crunch during the Great Recession. In a global ZLB environment, fiscal stimulus produces more or less the same multiplier as during normal times, which are both greater than one. The state-owned enterprises’ production channel produces a spill-over effect on the private-owned enterprises’ production and amplifies the multiplier effects of fiscal stimulus. Implementation delay enhances the multiplier effects of fiscal stimulus. Compared to normal times, the welfare gain associated with fiscal stimulus in a global ZLB environment increases significantly, whereby implementation delay slightly weakens this welfare enhancement.     

政府支出与经济波动——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

政府支出能否起到稳定经济增长的作用是一个值得研究的重要问题。使用1987-2013年30个省市自治区的面板数据,文章考察了政府支出对我国经济波动的影响。在考虑政府支出规模的内生性后,2SLS估计结果发现政府支出对经济波动的影响具有两面性。一方面政府支出规模主要发挥了财政自动稳定器作用,因而减少了经济波动;另一方面,政府支出变动对总量产出冲击较大,从而增加了经济波动。进一步控制了贸易开放、通货膨胀、货币政策冲击、金融发展和产业结构等因素,估计结果表现出较好的稳健性。研究结论意味着,在保持经济稳定增长方面,需要权衡政府支出规模与政府支出变动对经济波动的影响。     

Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan

This study examines how the effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on population aging. To this end, this study estimates the local fiscal multipliers in Japan. Results suggest that the estimated local fiscal multiplier on output is larger in non-aged areas than aged areas, and that the effects on the number of workers are not statistically significant in either area type. Additionally, the multipliers on private investment are only higher than one in non-aged prefectures. Results also indicate that the multiplier generated by an increase in government investment is larger than that in government consumption. These results indicate fewer slack resources in aged areas that can be mobilized in response to increased government spending.     

Fiscal policy and direct crowding-out in a small open economy

This paper analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the ‘pure waste’ case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. In any case, the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption is a key parameter in governing the welfare effects of fiscal policy.

China’s macroeconomic trends in downward pressures: the ‘micro stimulus’ effects and steady growth

This study reports China’s macroeconomic trends in downward pressures and discusses the effects of the ‘micro stimulus’ on the growth performance of Chinese economy. It appears that economic growth rebounds significantly in the short term every time ‘micro stimulus’ is applied, but the economy slows down again once the stimulus dwindles. China’s economic growth thus exhibits a pattern of significant ‘stimulus-dependence’. When facing economic downturn, China has only resorted to stimulus policy to sustain growth. Not surprisingly, our findings indicate that ‘micro stimulus’ cannot realize the strategic intent of growth stabilization and structural adjustment, and may even lead to more structural chaos. One problem that can be attributed to the near-sighted strategy is the worsening productivity performance since the financial crisis of 2008. Therefore both improvement in social security systems and social programs designed for maintaining long run growth are needed in order to improve productivity performance on the one hand and to facilitate structural adjustments on the other.     

Commodity prices and the macroeconomy: An extended dependent economy approach

This paper proposes a straightforward model for analysing the impact of export commodity price fluctuations on open macroeconomies with particular reference to Australia and New Zealand, major commodity exporters in the Asian region. It extends the dependent economy approach, first by re-specifying goods and services production as either exportable, importable or non-tradable, and second by adding a monetary sector to highlight key linkages between commodity prices, the exchange rate, price level, national output and trade account. The framework sheds new light on the phenomenon of ‘commodity currencies’, how exchange rate movements shield national output from terms of trade shocks, the importance of economic openness in this process, and the significance for monetary and exchange rate policy of short term, versus sustained, commodity price movements.     

Imperfect Competition and Fiscal Policy Transmission in a Two-Country Economy

This paper explores the interactions between countries implementing a fiscal policy in a monopolistic competition framework. The study of the fiscal multipliers shows that a fiscal expansion in the home country increases domestic output and diminishes foreign output in the short run. Profit redistribution to households constitutes the main channel of transmission. Both influence of the proportion of domestic firms owned by domestic households and the effect of the mark-up on the transmission of government policies are analysed. In the long run there is no interaction between countries since profits are zero. The welfare analysis reveals the possibility of positive externalities across countries, and the introduction of alternative taxation principles shows that the main results can be altered by the taxation scheme.     

开放经济条件下财政政策有效性的研究

随着经济开放度的日益提高,外部经济的冲击加剧了国内外经济均衡的矛盾,不确定的外部影响因素越来越多,财政当局难以及时掌控这些因素的变化,财政政策的有效性明显降低,处于一种趋于减弱的状态。从短期看,财政政策是有效的,但长期来看,财政政策的有效性越来越小甚至呈中性特质。     

调控我国内外均衡冲突的政策选择：基于政策搭配理论的研究

本文认为要解决当前我国以通货膨胀和国际收支顺差为特征的内外均衡冲突,在短期内,应该进行人民币升值,并与紧缩性财政政策和紧缩性货币政策进行配合;从长期看,应该进行外汇管理体制的改革,并且完善人民币汇率制度。     

Can Fiscal Decentralization Alleviate Government Consumption Volatility?

This paper assesses the effect of fiscal decentralization on government consumption volatility using data for 97 developed and developing countries from 1971 to 2010. The results suggest that a higher degree of fiscal decentralization leads to lower government consumption volatility. This result holds for the sub-sample of advanced economies, while it is not confirmed for those less-developed. This mechanism seems to work mainly through a lower volatility of the non-discretionary spending, which typically belongs to the central government’s policy. We also confirm existing findings according to which country size lowers government spending volatility. Thus, given a minimum level of development, fiscal decentralization reforms can reduce spending volatility by distributing power to sub-central governments, particularly in smaller countries which are usually more prone to volatility.