Application of the generalized Faustmann model to uneven-aged forest management

In this paper, a generalized Faustmann model is developed for uneven-aged management to allow the number of years and the level of residual growing stock to vary from one cutting cycle to the next. Comparative static analyses are conducted to determine the effect of changes in interest rate, stumpage price of the trees selected for harvest, the stumpage value of the residual growing stock, and the future land value on the decision variables. The model is then applied to study the uneven-aged management of a loblolly-shortleaf pine stand in south central U.S. to determine the length of the cutting cycle and the level of residual growing stock for the first cutting cycle as well as for a case involving four cutting cycles. Sensitivity analyses reveal that for the uneven-aged loblolly-shortleaf pine stand both the length of the cutting cycle and the level of the residual growing stock are very sensitive to changes in land value in the future, in the stumpage prices of trees selected for harvest, in the stumpage prices of the residual growing stock, and in the interest rate.     

Forest land consolidation and its effect on climate

Land use changes and forests both play an important role in combating climate change. The climate effects of forest land consolidation have, however, not been studied in detail. As such, this study identifies a number of possible climate effects of forest land consolidation. To specify these, the increased carbon storage in the Pahkakoski land consolidation project (Finland) due to increased forest growth is valued through substitution costs. The results show that the value of the increased carbon storage in the project area is approximately 750 000 euros, or €153/ha. This emanates from the increased growth due to remedial drainage and from the increased forested area. The result is, however, sensitive to changes in the shadow price of carbon. Likewise, the study recognises a need for studies concerning the total climate effect of measures, such as remedial drainage that may also release carbon from the ground. While the overall effects of forest land consolidation are difficult to estimate with current knowledge, this article highlights the potential of land consolidation to combat climate change.     

Adaptive capacity of legal and policy frameworks for biodiversity protection considering climate change

Protection of biodiversity under conditions of climate change is likely to place large requirements on existing frameworks for biodiversity protection at both EU and national level. While these systems are not perfectly adapted today, the inclusion of climate change concerns will require revision and addition of new issues, such as species migration corridors and buffers, as well as proactive strategies in areas that may not be protected today. Biodiversity in forest is particularly important as forest range over large areas that include also other land uses; this holds particularly true for the large forested areas in northern Europe. Illustrating complexities regarding biodiversity protection, this study reviews the applicable legal framework related to biodiversity in forests on EU and national level in Sweden, one of the countries with the largest forest areas in the EU. Mainly drawing on a policy and legal study, the paper concludes that adapting the legislative and policy system to a future with large uncertainties in terms of extent of change poses a problem for what are largely reactive systems in particular in terms of legislation.     

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

Agro-pastoralism under climate change: Institutions and local climate adaptations in northern China

The livelihoods of resource-dependent peoples are vulnerable to climate variability. This study focuses on how local climate adaptations, which have been sustained through long-term interactions with local ecologies, have changed in the face of the challenges caused by climate change and policy interventions. Case studies were conducted in two agro-pastoral counties of northern China, a region that confronts frequent drought and that has experienced extensive institutional changes over recent decades. Based on the exploration of four adaptation strategies, the field results show that both counties have experienced an acceleration of livelihood diversification, an increase in storage and market exchanges, and a dramatic reduction in previously common pooling. The findings reveal that these adaptations are not a direct result of coping with climate risks but rather are indicative of livelihood strategies that result from the combined impacts of institutional, socioeconomic and climatic changes. Current institutional arrangements have negative impacts on local climate adaptations. This is particularly true for those with limited livelihood options, and such arrangements may therefore foster an increase in inequality with regard to household adaptive capacities over the long term. Therefore, this study recommends flexible policies that facilitate local arrangements rather than the current one-for-all policy.     

Landraces as an adaptation strategy to climate change for smallholders in Santa Catarina,Southern Brazil

Adapting to climate change has become a pressing and urgent issue given the alarming rapidity with which climate changes is taking place. Agriculture is strongly conditioned by climatic factors, but subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable because smallholders do not have adequate financial resources to adapt to climate change. Agrobiodiversity provides one option for smallholders to adapt to climate change. Landraces developed in the western region of Santa Catarina State, Brazil, are part of a deliberate strategy by smallholders to achieve a state of food sovereignty and independence from commercial sources of hybrid seed. The ability of smallholders to collectively conserve climate-adapted landraces indicates the depth of local knowledge and capability within local communities that can be drawn on to meet the future challenges of climate change.     

On the economics of forests and climate change: Deriving optimal policies

First-best optimal forest sector carbon policy is examined. Using a forest and energy sector model with a carbon cycle module we show that the renewability and carbon neutrality arguments do not warrant emission free status of wood use. As a general optimality principle, the release of carbon is penalized by a tax and carbon capture is subsidized. However, under the biomass stock change carbon accounting convention, the land owners pay for the roundwood emissions and, to avoid double counting, the use of roundwood is treated as emission free. Yet, the carbon accounting convention followed does not affect the equilibrium outcome. The bioenergy from harvest residues is not emission free either. Furthermore, we show that an optimal policy subsidizes the production of wood products for their carbon sequestration. Correspondingly, carbon removals by biomass growth are subsidized and the harvest residue generation taxed. Numerical solution of the model shows that, although the use of wood is not emission free, it is optimal to increase the use of wood, possibly also in the energy sector. Before the wood use can be increased, the forest biomass will be increased. This carbon sink decreases the net emissions until the forest resources reach a new equilibrium.     

SEA making inroads in land-use planning in Brazil: The case of the Extreme South of Bahia with forestry and biofuels

In Brazil, incorporating the environmental dimension to the planning process is a challenging process. Planning has historically been carried without considering environmental protection concerns. The country's large development projects have engendered a discussion on the feasibility of these works given the conflicts with environmental policies. The strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is a tool that has the potential to integrate the sectoral, territorial and environmental perspectives to promote sustainable development, as shown by international experience. Its use has not yet been regulated in Brazil, only been voluntary initiatives, both public and private, have been implemented. This paper presents the structure and results of the SEA of the plans to expand silviculture of eucalyptus and biofuels in the Extreme South Region of Bahia state, in the Brazilian Northeast, in a context of sectoral planning dissociated from government guidelines for land use policy and environmental protection. It portrays a practical case of methodological proposal for the use of socio-environmental criteria to establish limits for land occupation by monocultures, for each of the municipalities of the study region, according to their specific climate, soil, relief and environmental preservation characteristics. Various alternatives were identified to ensure areas with greater productivity for small family farming and areas with potential for preservation. SEA helped to a better understanding of the effects of the expansion of the planting areas in each alternative, which was essential to help all stakeholders visualize the consequences of their strategies. Consequently, as results the SEA outlined a series of guidelines and restrictions for the various levels of government and the production sector. For instance, SEA suggested for Federal, State and Municipality governments that areas with better soil and climate conditions could be reserved for public policies to incentive the diversification of the uses of the territory, such as food production. SEA also suggests the adoption of incentive programs to establish multiple-use forests. The SEA recommended that the state government integrate its program for strengthening family agriculture with land-use planning criteria, based on cooperative systems The methodology employed has evidences to be replicable in other regions of Brazil and in developing countries.     

Forest land value and rotation with an alternative land use

We solve Faustmann's problem when the land manager plans to switch from the current tree species to some alternative species or land use. Such situations occur when the value of the alternative increases relative to the value of the species currently in place. The paper characterizes the land value function and the optimum rotations, highlighting the differences between this non-autonomous problem and the traditional Faustmann problem. We show that, from one harvest to the next until the switch, rotations can be constant and equal to the Faustmann rotation, or increasingly higher than the Faustmann rotation, or decreasingly lower. In the last two situations, the higher the number of previous harvests of the currently planted species before the switch to the alternative use, the closer the last rotation is to the Faustmann rotation.     

中国林权制度变革与林业投资的研究

林业产权制度是林业经济发展的基础和核心,林业产权制度的变更对林业的投资有重要的影响,该研究以新中国成立以来的林权变更为基础,对林业投资进行研究,结果表明：林权制度的变更对林业投资有重要的影响,林业投资倾向于营林建设。并提出建议：继续深化林权制度改革,增加国家对林业的投资力度,开拓林业投资新渠道。     

Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change

We summarize recent statistical analyses that link agricultural yields to weather fluctuations. Similar to other sectors, high temperatures play a crucial role in predicting outcomes. Climate change is predicted to significantly increase high temperatures and thereby reduce yields. How good are such models at predicting future outcomes? We show that a statistical model estimated using historic US data on corn and soybean yields from 1950 to 2011 is very capable of predicting aggregate US yields for the years 2012–2015, where 2012 was much hotter than normal and is expected to become the new normal under climate change. We conclude by discussing recent studies on the implication of predicted yield declines with a special focus on adaptation and commodity prices.     

国有林场改革与发展问题思考

介绍了国有林场的基本情况,国有林场职工参加社会最低生活保障的情况以及各地落实最低生活保障制度的好的经验和做法,指出国有林场发展存在着职工生活比较贫困、林区民生问题比较突出等主要问题,提出了明确林场定位、完善社保体系、加强基础设施建设、剥离社会职能等政策建议。     

Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue

This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as part of the AgMIP Project ( www.agmip.org ). The origins of the comparison activities can be traced to a project that was organized by the OECD in late 2010 to compare results from three models. The current phase of the research includes 10 models and was designed in part to support of the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). The special issue includes seven peer‐reviewed articles that present thematic results from a range of modeling strategies, with partial and general equilibrium modeling as a high level distinction but a myriad of differences within these two model types. A central common element is harmonization on biophysical effects using crop models and socioeconomic effects using drivers from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed as part of the AR5 process. The special issue provides broad insights into how the modeling communities approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.     

Challenging the obsession with local level institutions in country ownership of climate change adaptation

Working with local level actors to enable country ownership is applauded within the multilateral climate finance landscape. However, are emerging adaptation interventions equitable by reflecting the priorities of local level vulnerable populations? This research sought to find out whether the engagement of local institutions in projects that seek to achieve country ownership enabled local level vulnerable groups to participate in and influence adaptation decision-making processes and outcomes, thereby enabling them to have a voice in local level adaptation. It used a case study of a Global Environmental Facility-managed coastal adaptation project in Tanzania, which sought to restore and protect mangroves to enable adaptation to sea level rise. Data was generated from 13 Focus Group Discussions and survey questionnaires administered to 629 individuals in three locations on the mainland of Tanzania and in Zanzibar. The findings indicate that community-based organizations were used to facilitate the implementation of project activities at the community level. However, participation spaces created in the project and facilitated by these local institutions were exclusionary and failed to enable vulnerable community groups to have a voice on mangrove restoration and protection. Use of these local institutions altered local level power relations and disempowered other pre-existing and (in)formal local resource management institutions. Community members questioned legitimacy of actions implemented by these local institutions. These findings suggest that working with local level stakeholders to generate country ownership does not automatically guarantee that actions will address the needs of local vulnerable groups. Multilateral climate finance institutions should acknowledge these risks and implement measures to address them.     

Incorporating the effect of urbanization in measuring climate adaptive capacity

Measuring the ability of a community to face climatic changes, or its adaptive capacity, is necessary in order to plan and guide development as the global climate continues to warm. One factor that has not been thoroughly addressed by previous attempts at measuring adaptive capacity is urbanization. This study looks to measure adaptive capacity in relation to urbanization, as many areas of the world are undergoing this rapid transition. An indicator system was created with land-use sensitive measures and applied to three different land use projection scenarios (A, BAU, and B − high, medium, and low growth, respectively) to 2030 and 2050 for two case study areas, Tamsui, Taiwan and West Palm Beach, USA. In Tamsui, the adaptive capacity decreased in all scenarios, but most dramatically for the high growth scenario. The low growth scenario decreased more slowly through each time slice. For West Palm Beach, the high growth scenario had the highest score in 2030, but declined in 2050. The medium growth Scenario BAU, also had a higher adaptive capacity score in 2030 than in 2050. The low growth Scenario B had a score that improved less dramatically but continued to rise through 2050. Scenario A would be ideal for short term gains, but its benefits would plateau in the long term. Scenario B, with conservation measures and more restricted growth would be the most ideal alternative. This study shows that urbanization has short term socioeconomic gains, but long term environmental consequences. The results also successfully incorporates the effect of land use change into an adaptive capacity indicator system, and can be applied in other localities expecting significant increases in urbanization.     

Dual discounting in climate change mitigation in the forest sector

The efficiency of potential climate change mitigation is predicated on future costs and benefits and thus heavily influenced by the discount scheme. Dual discounting involves discounting carbon and monetary values differently; stand level modeling efforts show that it improves the profitability of afforestation projects. However, these stand level results may not hold across other age classes and stocking levels. Using a partial, spatial equilibrium model of the Norwegian forest sector, we analyze the impacts of a dual discounting scheme on climate change mitigation efforts. Dual discounting results in less mitigation efforts in the first decades but substantially higher long-term mitigation efforts.     

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.     

Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis

The stabilization of global climate presents one of the most complex problems in public good provision the world has faced. Continuation of “business as usual” policies, leading to warming of more than 2 degrees over the next year, will produce significant damage to agricultural systems and catastrophic damage to the natural ecosystems that ultimately support agriculture. The best solution to the public goods problem is a “contract and converge” agreement in which the ultimate outcome is a common global entitlement to CO₂ emissions per person.     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

The importance of ‘extremely unlikely’ events: tail risk and the costs of climate change

In assessing the risks associated with climate change, ‘tail risks’ (low‐probability extreme events) often play a much larger role than their probability alone might indicate. There are three main reasons for this: the linear relationship between sensitivity and warming; the convexity of the damage function; and the concavity of the utility function. Ignoring the upper tail of the distribution of possible outcomes will result in serious underestimates of the social cost of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and of the socially optimal price for emissions.